Konstantin Zatulin: Recognition of the DPR and LPR is an extreme option. Can Russia recognize the DPR and LPR

The DPR and LPR are self-proclaimed republics. On this moment They were not recognized by any UN member country. The only state that has recognized them is South Ossetia, but it itself does not have the status of a full-fledged state entity.

Why Russia recognized Abkhazia and Crimea, but did not recognize the DPR
Although outwardly the situation in Abkhazia South Ossetia and in Crimea is the same with the LDPR, at the state level their position is very different. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are the regions where Russian peacekeepers were initially stationed. Georgia's attack on these regions led to a "peace enforcement operation." As a result, Russia has the prerequisites not only to use force, but also to recognize the independence of these regions as a result of open aggression against the civilian population and its military personnel. If there had been Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk before 2014, the situation would have been repeated by analogy with Abkhazia. But this didn’t happen. It’s even easier in Crimea. There was originally a Russian military and naval base here. Moreover, Crimea is a separate public education- republic. Therefore, according to international standards, holding a referendum, especially after the coup in Ukraine, fully complies with UN standards.

In the case of Donetsk and Lugansk, these areas are just regions of Ukraine, they are not republics like Crimea, and there were no peacekeepers or Russian troops there. Therefore, at the official level, Russia cannot recognize the LDPR without recognizing them by the UN or other UN member countries.

In what case will Russia recognize the LDPR?
If the Minsk agreements are disrupted and Ukraine commits some kind of terrorist attack that will lead to mass casualties, or unleashes new war, this will mean Ukraine’s withdrawal from these agreements. Accordingly, Russia will have a formal reason to apply the “last argument of kings” - to recognize the independence of the LDPR and send its troops to Donbass. What will happen after Russia recognizes the LDPR. Chronicle of the collapse of Ukraine
1. Recognition of the LDPR means that in the eyes of the Russian Federation they will become full-fledged sovereign states, and not regions of Ukraine. This also means that Russia will be able to conclude formal agreements with them.2. Immediately after such recognition (due to the Ukrainian attack), two treaties will be signed. The first is the Treaty of Friendship with the LDPR. The second is an agreement on military assistance in case of aggression.

What is the US doing? - But they don’t do anything. In a military sense, even NATO will not be able to compete with Russia - no one will start the Third for the sake of Ukraine World War, especially considering the personal territorial claims to Ukraine of Poland, Hungary and Romania. It is much easier for these NATO countries to observe and “on the quiet” to steal from Ukraine the areas that they consider their own.
3. After the entry of the regular army of Russia and after the use modern means war, the Ukrainian army, together with the National Guard, at best retreats, or surrenders to the Russian troops and Donbass militias (the majority of the military in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not fight against the Russians). True, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine will surrender, but the National Guardsmen understand that the Investigative Committee is waiting for them in Russia committee and long-term work on the development of Siberia and the Far North under the supervision of gloomy guys in blouses. At the same time, sanctions are getting stronger, there is real hysteria at the UN, but Russia and China easily block any decisions of the Security Council. Angela Merkel, as the leader of the European Union, receives assurances from Putin that the Russian army will not go to Kyiv, the panic in NATO calms down slightly. In the end, if you look at things soberly, they have already said goodbye to Crimea and Donetsk a long time ago. Kiev, in a panic, is drawing troops to the conflict zone and Verkhovna Rada to protect the government by exposing its flanks. Of course, in the conflict zone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are at a respectful distance from Russian armored forces and airborne forces.

4. Other regions of Ukraine receive a clear signal: if you want, you can secede from Ukraine. Believe me, there are many sensible people in Ukraine who do not write on social networks and sit quietly, since any manifestation of love for Russia can result in a prison sentence for betraying national interests. They just sit and wait for the right moment.

And now such a moment comes. Millions of guns from looted military warehouses and from the conflict zone in Donbass are “walking” in the hands of the population. In addition, there will always be “businessmen” who, in the wake of patriotism, will want to “pinch off” a piece of power for themselves. And for this you need to take power.

As a result, taking advantage of the fact that Kyiv has exposed its flanks and herded troops into the “ATO” zone and towards the capital, pro-Russian forces are rising in Odessa, Kharkov, Kherson, and Zaporozhye.

The same thing is happening in the Transcarpathian region and Bukovina, but pro-Hungarian and pro-Romanian forces are rising. There are options here - the Hungarians and Romanians can send in their troops “to protect their citizens.” And there are many citizens there - tens and hundreds of thousands of Bucharest and Budapest have distributed their passports to residents of this region.

By the way, in Transcarpathia the population definitely has thousands of guns in their hands, and they can defend themselves against Ukraine there as easily as in Crimea - by blocking just a few passes in the Carpathians.

5. The Kharkov, Southern, Zaporozhye and Odessa republics are formed. Perhaps other regions will catch up too. The situation is completely out of Kyiv's control. Perhaps many functionaries of the current government, led by Mr. Poroshenko, are urgently packing their bags and flying to their villas in Spain and the USA.

6. Poland is bringing thousands of claims against Polish citizens for their lands and facilities in Western Ukraine, which were selected and nationalized after the arrival of USSR troops here in 1939. Many publications in Poland, Russia and Ukraine wrote that these lawsuits are ready and waiting in the wings.

Western Ukraine is gradually “swimming away” towards Warsaw, where Ukrainian nationalists are ready to recall the Volyn massacre, in which hundreds of thousands of Polish women and children died.

6. The state of Ukraine is “shrunk” into several central regions. Perhaps the government is changing to a pro-Russian one. But these are already details.

In general, in this place we can confidently say - finita la commedia.

MOSCOW, December 26 - RIA Novosti. Ukrainian authorities instead of carrying out the reintegration of Donbass with my own hands are pushing the region out of the country, State Secretary and Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Grigory Karasin said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

According to him, in accordance with the Minsk agreements, Donbass should be given a special status within Ukraine. “In reality, we see the opposite process. Instead of reintegrating the region into the common political and economic space, the Ukrainian leadership with its own hands is actually pushing the southeast out of the country,” Karasin said.

In his opinion, Kyiv acts with everyone accessible ways. As Karasin pointed out, the Ukrainian authorities do not shun openly cruel and cynical methods - “from stopping social and pension payments, turning off water supply, electricity, and right up to attempts to isolate Donbass by imposing an almost total blockade.” “All this is being done with one goal - to provoke mass discontent and force the region to capitulate, regardless of the opinion of the majority of its population, which does not want to put up with Kyiv’s policies,” he emphasized.

“Such actions run counter to the Minsk agreements (clause 8), which confirmed the need to take measures to improve the humanitarian situation and economic restoration of life in the southeast of Ukraine, and to establish trade relations with our country,” Karasin said.

Answering the question about whether Russia should recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, the diplomat emphasized: “As for future fate Donetsk and Lugansk republics, then this should be, first of all, the choice of the people living there." In his opinion, it is the residents who must decide on those forms of state, political, economic and social coexistence with their neighbors that will be acceptable and comfortable for them “I am confident that without a direct, honest and constructive dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk, a reasonable way out of the current crisis can hardly be found. Alas, this is exactly what the Kyiv authorities are avoiding in every possible way,” Karasin said.

But it exists

State Duma Deputy, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS and Compatriots Affairs Konstantin Zatulin in an interview with the editor-in-chief Federal News Agency explained what prevents the Russian Federation from officially recognizing the DPR and LPR, why Zatulin himself was never in Donetsk and Lugansk during the civil war in Ukraine, and what Russians from other countries can count on in today’s Russia.

— In 2014, Russia recognized the will of the Crimeans. A referendum on independence was held in Donetsk and Lugansk. But nothing further happened. Why didn’t Moscow take into account Donbass’ desire to break with Ukraine and reunite with Russia?

— Russia is a country whose leadership, accepting such important decisions, is obliged to delve into the situation. Understand what needs to be avoided, what is possible, what in this case will harm what will not harm.

From the point of view of strategy and geopolitics, the fact that we returned Sevastopol and Crimea, supporting their will, certainly harmed the development of Russian-Ukrainian relations. But we did this after the first step was taken by Ukraine, I mean the coup in 2014.

By taking this step - and there was absolutely no alternative in relation to Crimea and Sevastopol - the Russian authorities understood that approximately one and a half million pro-Russian voters were being removed from the internal Ukrainian political context. And in conditions of constant swing, this is a significant factor. In 1994 candidate [Leonid] Kuchma would hardly have won presidential elections candidate and incumbent president [Leonid] Kravchuk, Don’t be Crimea for Kuchma. By withdrawing, we understand that we are shifting the internal balance towards conditionally pro-Western forces in Ukraine.

Secondly, we provided nationalists in Ukraine, who are obviously anti-Russian, with an excellent excuse for brainwashing in Ukraine. Which they are currently using full program. It lies in the fact that in response to all attempts to justify the need to develop Russian-Ukrainian relations, nationalists tell their opponents: “Russia took our Crimea away from us.” And they are going to use this to educate not only the current, but also future generations of citizens of Ukraine, making Russia worst enemy Ukraine, forming this image.

Throughout all the years of Ukraine's independence, attempts have been made, mostly unsuccessful, to Ukrainize Ukraine. The most striking attempt was during [Viktor] Yushchenko. You know that he came to nothing. He did not refuse to advance to next elections and received 5% in 2010. In my opinion, no sitting president in any country has received such a low percentage. This is the result of attempts to Ukrainize Ukraine.

But now, in the presence of all these factors - Crimea, Donbass, demonization of Russia everywhere, political repression against supporters of Russia - nationalists in Ukraine are experiencing a high rise. It seems to them that they have grabbed God by the beard. And now for the first time they have consolidated political Ukraine on anti-Russian grounds. This, by the way, is not entirely true, or rather, not true at all.

There is an “Opposition Bloc”, there are people who are in prison, there is a suppressed opposition. But the nationalists think they have achieved their goal. So they did not achieve their goal for 23 years in attempts to Ukrainize Ukraine (although, of course, they advanced along this path, but not as much as they would like). And here they reign everywhere - in the media, in the public sphere, in political practice, and so on. And this can also be considered a consequence of the fact that in the case of Crimea we met the Crimeans halfway and accepted them into Russia.

Crimeans were and remained hostages of Russian-Ukrainian relations until 2014. Official Russia from 1991 to 2014, she sacrificed the interests of Crimeans for the sake of general Russian-Ukrainian relations. Because it was based on the goals: to preserve Ukraine as a partner in a special relationship with Russia. When this was undermined in 2014 coup d'etat, the decision was made.

I want to say one more thing: why, in fact, do we need this Crimea so much? What is Crimea for Russia? [President of the Russian Federation Vladimir] Putin he said this about this: this is a sacred place for Russia. I don’t want to play the role of a sycophant who sweetens the words of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. But for many years, even before Putin became president, I argued much the same thing. In the sense that not a single issue, not a single injustice committed as a result of the collapse Soviet Union, was not as clearly clear to everyone in Russia as the loss of Crimea.

Now we are paying attention to the Baptism of Prince Vladimir, but before we had churching on a massive scale, we were talking about the defense of Sevastopol, about the defense during the Great Patriotic War, about the victories of the Black Sea Fleet, about the Crimean campaigns. The most important thing that historians, if they didn’t talk about, then understood is that the annexation of Crimea made it possible to develop the adjacent regions, which later became the Russian Federation and the Ukrainian SSR. Because without it Crimean Khanate- an ally of the Turkish Empire - ravaged the entire southern underbelly of Russia for several centuries and did not give us the opportunity to build our own statehood.

The place that is now filled with cities - Dnepropetrovsk, Rostov, Zaporozhye - was a wild field and a place of raids by the Crimean Tatars. It would have been impossible to develop further if this problem had not been eliminated. It is clear that Crimea played a special role in the development Russian statehood. It is also clear that Crimea was the very last Soviet gift, given contrary to all norms of the law - not to mention the attitude of people towards it.

In this regard, Crimea is crying out for its presence in Ukraine, and Sevastopol, which has been publicly fighting against this for all these 23 years, is especially crying out. You see, here “art ends and the soil and fate breathe.” This is political art, geopolitics, stepping aside.

Why did the Armenians need Nagorno-Karabakh? Nagorno-Karabakh is a geographical dead end. Why, with the beginning of their independence, even before the collapse of the Soviet Union, did they suddenly become so excited about the topic Nagorno-Karabakh? Because they could not bear the humiliation that this ancient Armenian land, where their graves, khachkars, monasteries, was “cleaned up” during the years of Soviet power for the sake of belonging to Azerbaijan SSR. Medieval artifacts were destroyed and buried in the ground... Let's say, in the abandoned Dadivank monastery, a Kurd kept a flock of sheep. And he lit a fire in the altar. And now, when the soot has peeled off, frescoes from the 10th century have been discovered. The Armenians could not come to terms with this.

But there was a period when there were more Armenians in Baku than Azerbaijanis. Just like there were more Armenians in Tbilisi than Georgians. And yet, history, religion, and cultural differences force us to break. Not with Georgia - which would be more pragmatic - but with Azerbaijan, where the positions of the Armenians were so strong. And now they are refugees, just like the Azerbaijanis in Karabakh.

But you asked the question no longer about Crimea, but about Donetsk and Lugansk. This is a slightly different story. Donetsk and Lugansk have been part of Ukraine for 30 years longer. During this time, through the efforts of the Soviet government in the 20-30s of the 20th century, Ukrainization took place. I would say so. In a relatively peaceful situation at the referendum, twenty to thirty percent would be in favor of joining Russia. Another ten, twenty or thirty percent - no way - would have stayed in Ukraine. The rest would be a transition module.

The root, deep connections of Donetsk and Lugansk with Russia were much more lost than those of Crimea. They were brought up in Soviet period within the framework of the Ukrainian paradigm. Once again, geopolitics comes into play. We understand that, after we removed Crimea from the internal Ukrainian context, withdrawing Donetsk and Lugansk also means depriving allies of that part of the pro-Russian Russians and Ukrainians who remain on the other side of Ukraine.

In this case, we proceeded from the fact that Donetsk and Lugansk need to be returned to the common political field with Ukraine, but on decent terms. That is, without reprisals, without settling scores, with a special status - as an element of a federation or confederation. And the very return of Donetsk and Lugansk to this status will become a catalyst for a chain reaction of federalization of Ukraine. And federal Ukraine is something on which the heart should calm down.

I said this before all these events, in the 90s. I had an article in 1996 in Nezavisimaya Gazeta - “Test by Ukraine”, in which I posed this question... Not everyone here understands this. When I talked with the head of the administration of the previous president, now the prime minister, about the goals of policy in Ukraine (and in our country the head of the presidential administration traditionally oversees the Ukrainian direction. Each of the high officials leads some country from among our neighbors), I told him: We have three goals in Ukraine. Three conditions of our special relationship with Ukraine. This is not about who will own the plant and gas pipeline. Three conditions, three: federalization of Ukraine, Russian as the state language and the unity of the church with the Moscow Patriarchate.

Because all these things that we were very passionate about in the 2000s - who will own the plant, who will own something else - are very reversible. We behaved in much the same way as our allies from the Party of Regions. They gave all the ideological things - education, culture, media, partly the intelligence services - to the nationalists. And they believed that since they had factories, newspapers, and steamships in their hands, everything else would follow. The main thing is to make money, and you will command.

And where are they now with their money? Half of it is here. Half are forced to repaint and are there. And we, in turn, thought that if Lukoil had more gas stations in Crimea, then that would be very good. And the Lukoil branch in Crimea in the late 90s supported the Crimean Tatar “Mejlis” 1 (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation. - Ed.). And it did not support the Russian community. Because business is always afraid and wants to be holier than pope Roman. Having arrived in Crimea, business must comply, must satisfy the radicals. So that they don’t consider him a stranger. So it satisfies.

This is the tragedy of the whole story with Donetsk and Lugansk. I recently met with [the head of the DPR] Alexander Zakharchenko in Tskhinvali. I sympathize with him very sincerely (the conversation took place before tragic death Alexandra Zakharchenko August 31, 2018. — Approx. ed.). And his television interviewed him - I don’t know if they will show it (they said they will show it without cuts). They asked me a question: when will Russia finally recognize Donetsk and Lugansk?

- Yes, yes, this is my next question.

“I answered them: you know what I want to tell you.” I want to say that I was in all conflict zones without exception: in the USSR, and in Europe, in Kosovo, in Bosnia. I’m not afraid of anything, my life is not so valuable that I wouldn’t risk it on occasion. But I have never been to Donetsk and Lugansk since 2014. I support them in every possible way, and advocate in the State Duma for simplified citizenship to be granted to these people first of all.

But I didn’t go to Donetsk and Lugansk (although they convinced me that I should definitely go), because I don’t want to lie. I don’t want to tell them about milk rivers and jelly banks, that tomorrow they will be recognized. I know that there are people who easily do this - they talk about an outburst of spirit, like, for example, [Russian political and public figure, writer, journalist] Alexander Prokhanov. They can do it for hours. But they are creative and irresponsible people, they can talk about it for as long as they like.

The problem is that, unfortunately, I don’t yet really understand what we are ready for in this matter. We made the most serious mistake once: in 2014, in September, when we stopped in the city of Mariupol. Some people think that if suddenly [something goes wrong], we can always [fix it] later. But that doesn't happen. The window of opportunity is closing.

— The words of [assistant] sounded somewhat strange President of the Russian Federation] Vladislav Surkov, who congratulated South Ossetia on the 10th anniversary of independence: the only ones who had the courage to recognize the DPR and LPR. Well, what about Russia?

“You see, I’m not my brother’s keeper.” Moreover, we are not brothers. Surkov is a very intelligent person; Of course, sometimes, especially in the public sphere, he would like, like many others, to seem more courageous than he could be. It is impossible to exclude the fact that we recognize Donetsk and Lugansk from the entire range of possibilities. But this is the most extreme case, the last argument of the kings. By the way, this is what I said to Donetsk television.

— Do you mean escalation on the part of Ukraine?

- Yes, sure. And they should know what will happen if there is an escalation. Just like we in the State Duma, on my initiative, held parliamentary hearings in March 2008. Our Foreign Ministry told us how round we are, how careful we are, how we don’t take sudden steps, and everyone admires us. And we said: if Georgia attacks Abkhazia, Ossetia or Transnistria, we must, despite all our statements, recognize them. We wrote it down and voted on it. Six months passed, they attacked - and we did it. And before that we were told that we shouldn’t pose the question like that, we shouldn’t aggravate it.

It's the same here. Well, he said this, yes, we can say that this created operational opportunities for our work. This made the task easier for those people who pursue such policies in the Kremlin. Russia does not officially recognize Donetsk and Lugansk; it does not want to fall under yet another distribution. But Russia recognizes Ossetia, and Ossetia recognizes Donetsk.

- Tricky combination!

- This is politics. I just want to say so that it is clear to the jingoists (and this is not always clear to them). The president Russian Federation, I am sure, his soul is rooting for Donetsk, Lugansk, but he is also responsible for some cities - St. Petersburg, Moscow, Vladivostok - and must think about it.

— There are millions of Russians in Ukraine, they have no state. They have a Russian language and culture, for which they are oppressed. What should they do? Can Russia do something for them? Do you have partners, like-minded people in Ukraine?..

- You know, I can’t tell you everything. I am in a somewhat strange position from the point of view of Ukrainian laws. Firstly, I am prohibited from entering Ukraine - but this is already the sixth time. Secondly, at the same time, in December last year, the Kiev court, on the proposal of the Main Military Prosecutor's Office of the General Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine, arrested me in absentia. I just can’t understand how I can be simultaneously not allowed into the territory of Ukraine and arrested, but okay. They get it together in their heads.

I believe that the uniqueness of Crimea and Sevastopol was determined by the following fact. For 23 years, despite our official line In the 90s, and even in the 2000s, a group of people, cultural figures, was formed in Russia, including through my efforts. They did not allow Crimea to forget about the existence of Russia during all the years of its stay on the territory of Ukraine. And, in turn, Russia should forget about Crimea, which is perhaps even more important. We carried out this work in Crimea with the help of the Crimean intelligentsia and politicians - however, it was much more difficult for them, Ukraine put pressure on them. In the end, many became, you know, tortuous, like saxaul in the desert: here and there, just to exist.

I just recently saw a wonderful woman in Ossetia, Olga Kovitidi. She is our senator from Crimea. Since 2006, she was the head of the legal department of the Yushchenko administration in Sevastopol, which was headed by [ former chairman Government of the Republic of Crimea] Sergei Kunitsyn. Kunitsyn and his people were given the task of strangling Russian influence in the hero city, and the Sevastopol administration worked hard to solve this problem, sparing no effort.

With Yushchenko’s failure in the elections, Kovitidi emerged in the team Vasily Dzharty, set by Yanukovych to bring Crimea “under control”. She was so zealous in the ranks of the Party of Regions that she received the title of “sycophant of the year” from journalists. Ms. Kovitidi did not feel any nostalgia for Russia at that time. But when the “Russian Spring” happened in Crimea in 2014, Kovitidi was already in the forefront with the tricolor. As a result, he now teaches us all patriotism in the Federation Council. Now he’s making toasts to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, something he literally just had the pleasure of listening to in Tskhinvali on Sunday.

We have seen a lot of such Crimean politicians over the past 20 years. But the bulk of the population of Crimea was unequivocally pro-Russian, and this was thanks to the fact that we were able to reach their minds and hearts, thanks to the history that they had before their eyes every minute in Sevastopol and all other Crimean crossroads

When it comes to Russians in the rest of Ukraine...

— For example, what should Odessa residents do, how should they live?

— Odessa has always been more vulnerable in this sense for a number of parameters, although I think that if they had not stopped in September 2014, they might very well have reached... Or, let’s say, the people who were in Odessa and ended up in the House unions are depressed that they would gain the upper hand. And there would be a different Odessa.

But, again, this is due to the general shortcomings of the political culture of the Soviet people. Russian soviet man I'm used to relying on the state. When I first arrived State Duma, became the chairman of the committee, I immediately encountered this.

This is what happened. So, people are used to relying on the state. The Soviet Union collapsed. No one immediately realized the significance of this event. We continue to rely on the state, but the state is already completely different. Kazakhstan is for Kazakhs, Ukraine is for Ukrainians, and so on. And within the framework of this state, claims against you as a Russian person are gradually growing. Because you are a representative of the very people, the very Russia that has oppressed us for centuries. And so on.

But the most important thing is that because of this Soviet past, people did not develop self-defense mechanisms, did not learn to fight. We immediately made such an attempt in the first Duma: we assembled a council of compatriots at the State Duma. In general, I proposed creating a separate electoral district for Russians abroad (I have not been able to accomplish this so far). Or at least for Russian citizens living abroad, there are officially over two million of them on consular records. This means that we can create an extraterritorial foreign constituency for the election of deputies to the State Duma. But they didn’t support me. Then I came up with a council of compatriots so that they could choose their representatives - to teach them how to choose, so that they would master new mechanisms.

Unfortunately, the first Duma had a shortened term - two years. It was replaced by a four-year-old communist left. I wasn't in that lineup. My successor, may he rest in heaven, Georgy Tikhonov- a man of a different temperament, he had his own views. He replaced election with appointment and appointed himself chairman of this council. As a result, the motivation of these people changed, and the experiment to introduce political mechanisms into the Russian diaspora stopped.

Now further. Here I am a member state commission on affairs of compatriots abroad. Unfortunately, we do not discuss truly political issues there. We are discussing how many flowers to put at the monument, and we believe that we are conducting political work. But, relatively speaking, we don’t teach people how to fish - we’re all trying to give someone a few herring tails. And they all quarrel about it, because there are not enough herrings. But we cannot teach them to fish, because “well, this is interference”... You see, we have not created sufficient mechanisms, like the Americans, for example, online and others, to influence certain categories. For example, Armenia is an ally and everything else. There is the entire blogosphere under [the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol] Pashinyan and his friends, although there are so many of them in parliament. And they run the show - and we wipe ourselves off. Because we have not mastered these tools, and at best we are just getting started.

But when it comes to Ukraine, it’s even more annoying. There were completely different possibilities here. Okay, we don't do that, but we at least developed citizenship for our compatriots. After all, it was my proposal, my fix idea. And to this day she remains the guiding star - to ensure that the promises formulated in the law on public policy in relation to compatriots abroad. We promised citizenship to all compatriots without making this conditional on whether they live in Russia or abroad. Simplified citizenship if you are a compatriot! Not a migrant, but a compatriot.

— That is, relatively speaking, if you live in Ukraine and you are Russian.

— If you live in Ukraine and you are Russian, that means you belong to our people, which means you have the right to simplified citizenship. This is very important: you have it, but our citizenship law at all points requires you to renounce the citizenship of Ukraine or another state.

“And this norm needs to be changed.”

— This norm needs to be removed. It prevents the mass transition to Russian citizenship - people cannot renounce the citizenship of their country of residence, although they want to confirm their connection with Russia. Let them have two citizenships.

— Whose political will is needed here?

“In this case, we come across a whole system of “wills.” The determining factor is understanding and approval at the level of the president and his administration. This summer there was an important personnel change: new people came to the relevant department, new assistant President, the new head of the department for the protection of constitutional rights of citizens. Unlike before, we communicate with them. But our laws still lie motionless. And I haven’t even made this proposal yet - waiving the requirement to renounce the citizenship of the country of residence in order to obtain a Russian one. Because on the approaches to it, I cannot get through with much more explainable and unconditional amendments!

In favor of removing the requirement to provide a certificate from a foreign state for those who are going...

—Are you talking about renouncing citizenship?

— No, we are talking about the norm associated with native speakers of the Russian language. Do you know this situation? This was the president’s proposal from 2012; it was accepted in 2014. It sounded like this, and note that we are no longer talking about those who live in Ukraine, but about those who live in Russia. Moreover, they are our compatriots, they come from the territory Russian Empire or the Soviet Union or are direct descendants. In this case, they have the right, having passed the citizenship of their state, to obtain ours in a simplified manner by passing an exam on knowledge of the Russian language.

What did the deputies do in the Duma where I was not and could not be. They attributed this to two things. First, the citizen was born there and there, but within the modern Russian Federation. I still can't get over it. The provision remains in law and means that neither Gogol, born in Sorochintsy, nor Dal, born in Lugansk, could claim the status of a “native speaker of the Russian language.” Sorochintsy and Lugansk outside the modern Russian Federation. And secondly, applicants must provide a certificate from a foreign state confirming their renunciation of citizenship of that state. We have not negotiated this with any foreign state. No state is obliged to provide us with certificates - and does not provide them. Especially in Ukraine, where the decision on renunciation of citizenship by law is made personally by the president.

During the validity of this norm from 2014 to 2017, only three thousand people received citizenship, of which 24 people were from Ukraine. And, for example, 73% are citizens of Tajikistan who do not need a certificate - we have an agreement on dual citizenship. The only country like this...
People cannot get a certificate. No certificate - get out of here, that's it! We filmed this with great difficulty and monstrous efforts last summer only for Ukraine. They didn’t remove it for Uzbekistan and the Baltic states, now they are writing to me from Kazakhstan - why are we worse? We are also Russians, we were also sent to virgin lands, why do they require this certificate from us?

Why don’t we remove this condition, which, by the way, was set only and exclusively for “native speakers of Russian”? Because the Main State Legal Department was against it. And his position was shaped by people from the department for the protection of constitutional rights of citizens, who sat in this position for twenty years.

If at one time we had listened to idiots like me and distributed citizenship to Ukrainians, as we distributed Russian citizenship in Abkhazia and Ossetia, then by 2014 half, or exactly a third, of Ukrainian citizens would also be citizens of the Russian Federation. Could a pro-Western coup take place in Ukraine under such conditions? Even if something happened, it could start Civil War? No! Because no one would dare to do this, having before their eyes, by the way, the same example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

— It’s clear that you can’t spin the minced meat back. But now, what can people who come to Russia expect? How can they get a job? How to improve your life? What can they hope for in the foreseeable future? Even the President of Russia stood up for these people during the direct line.

“For me, the proof was not even the words of the president during the direct line, but the personnel decisions made.” This means that the ice has broken. I contributed whole line proposals, bills - and the deputies supported me. The proposals are in the State Duma’s portfolio, but lie unsorted, because we are waiting for the presidential administration to mature.

They concern a number of categories, including people who came from Ukraine. Many of them are now in a semi-legal situation here because they violated the 90-day rule. We say: declare a “migration amnesty.” That is, remove the curse of the violators from them. If they come to register tomorrow - and they should come - then you don’t pursue them, since they lived here not 90 days, but 180, two years, and so on. Because they couldn't go back!

Secondly, in the future, if they apply for a residence permit and citizenship, remove the need to obtain a temporary residence permit. Because they have already lived here since 2014! Give them a residence permit immediately. And after that let people in in the prescribed manner apply for citizenship, for example, through the “Russian native speakers” procedure.

After all, there are two by and large, procedures - one of them is blocked by the idiotic amendments that I talked about (this is a procedure for native speakers of the Russian language), and there is another, a state program for the voluntary resettlement of compatriots to Russia. It has been in operation since 2007, but has turned into a search program labor resources. This is not a repatriation program, although that is what it is called.

Why? This is what happened to her. It was announced, and certain benefits were included in it. That is, they invite a person, the person receives some benefits, and there are obligations for his employment.

— That is, they are obliged to employ him?

- Yes. Then the federal government, in its spirit, transferred all the created tasks to the regional authorities. Now these are all the responsibilities of the regions. The regions do not accept this program - they have their own problems, they do not want to spend their budgets on any repatriation programs. As a result, in order to retain the regions, they are told: well, then you decide for yourself who to accept and who not. Quotas are being applied. And refugees from Ukraine do not fall into these quotas.

How does this happen? Let's say there is a Kaliningrad region. A compatriot comes three times, four times falling under all the parameters of this program. He says: I want, I’m eager to return to my homeland, I’m handing over my passport... They tell him: very good, wonderful, but who are you? And let’s say I’m a doctor. Okay, we need doctors. And who are you? And let’s say I’m a sailor. But we have enough sailors... That's all!

This is a workforce program and federal government I did this because I couldn’t hold on to the regions. To keep them in this program, she gave them the opportunity to do what they wanted. And the regions are busy with their own things. This is the situation.

The “Russian native speakers” program does not require any obligations from the state in terms of employment and everything else. This is a program for exactly what happened in 2014. Lots of people—two and a half million people—moved. Most of them have connections and contacts here. They say: we don’t need your silver coins, we’ll get settled ourselves. Just give us a residence permit, give us citizenship - and that’s it, we’ll find a job on our own.

What's happening to them now? They are employed in low-paid jobs, they work for unknown reasons, on worse terms than the same Uzbeks and Tajiks. Why do we humiliate people? These are our people, of the same faith and blood with us. And this happens because there is some idiot in the management who believes that everyone who is needed has already come to us, and the rest are not needed. This is what was said when the current version of the citizenship law was adopted in 2002.

I had a friend Oleg Kutafin, rector of Moscow State legal academy. Later he was made chairman of the Presidential Citizenship Commission. He and I went to the elections together with the Congress of Russian Communities in 1995, he was a patriotic person... He was attracted to write legislation on citizenship, setting the goal: to make this citizenship unattainable.

- Who set such a task?

- The authorities did. The citizenship process was a mess - it seemed like it wasn't valued. So we decided: let’s make citizenship valued. Just like in the United States. So that a person seeks, solicits, terms, temporary residence permit, residence permit... They created a system - but forgot that in our country the resettlement of peoples did not end after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

And now there is a crisis in Ukraine and two and a half million people. And there would be more. Poland is already opening its gates to them today. And in Poland today there are already more of them than in Russia. And with the help of these people, Poland is building its economy. They are the second engine of the Polish economy, Polish newspapers write about this. And these are Ukrainian migrant workers who came to escape.

— In Poland, Ukrainians are also not particularly favored; many wild stories come from there.

- There are problems there, yes. But they nevertheless see the point in it. The whole world is competing for hands and heads, but we declare - no, we don’t need it. We have a demographic hole, but we don’t need it. Now, I’m afraid, a new reason will be invented in connection with the pension reform. I already feel that my bills will be slowed down - why would we invite anyone if we have a problem with employment due to raising the retirement age?

And before that they said: everything is fine, everything is correct, but you know, you are making the procedure too easy. What if intruders get in? Indeed, millions of criminals, Banderaites, will come to us themselves, renouncing Ukrainian citizenship, in order to stick their heads into the FSB noose and overthrow our government. It’s crazy, who can come up with something like this?!

Let’s say five people like this come - well, fine, identify them, at all stages of this path you have the opportunity to interrupt the procedure, refuse citizenship, and there are no problems. No, they began to invent reinsurance.

But in fact, all this has a downside. And this is the corruption component.

Here is the federal level, the Main Directorate for Migration Affairs of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Wonderful women work there - General [Olga] Kirillova, We communicate soul to soul, I write letters to her, hand over batches of appeals. She is a compassionate woman. And she has a deputy [Valentina] Kazakova, she is also compassionate, but in a different sense. So people come and complain about refusals and red tape. She agrees: yes, I understand that what our employees are demanding is a mockery, but this is according to the law. Otherwise - not according to the law - we cannot. And if we do not comply with the law, then the Investigative Committee is behind us, which will say that we, apparently, gave you citizenship for bribes. But this is wildness.

As a deputy, I am already accustomed to hearing different stories at receptions that few writers would ever think of. Here, let’s say, is the problem of people who came to Russia in the 90s. After the collapse of the USSR, having arrived from the so-called Kazakhstan and having received a stamp in their passport that they were Russian, they settled. Some went to serve, some were born after that, some served and retired. This is how they lived in the 90s and 2000s. And in 2016 they are told: you know, you weren’t found in the database, give me your passport here, it’s wrong.

- This real story?

— There are 250 thousand people like that. Under Romodanovsky Federal Migration Service confiscated 250 thousand passports, and then began to manipulate: you know, we cannot deprive a person of citizenship in this way outside of court. In general, it was impossible to deprive a person of citizenship, in principle, but we have recently introduced a rule according to which citizenship can be deprived. But not by birth. But, for example, if you arrived, received a passport at an adult age, took the oath, and then it turned out that you are an ISIS terrorist (ISIS 1 is a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation. - Ed.). On this basis, you can be deprived of citizenship by court.

But the FMS took away the passports and said in all honesty: this is not deprivation of citizenship, this is a passport issued incorrectly. But in fact, the direct consequence of this is “get out of here,” we’ll deport you, go to Kazakhstan in the 90s. From 2016.

I had a case, I wrote about it in Komsomolskaya Pravda. The man came to Mednogorsk in 1993 from Kazakhstan, settled, worked in the police, became the head of the police of the city of Mednogorsk in Chelyabinsk region. He worked and retired from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. After that, he went to work as the head of the post office of the city of Mednogorsk, then he completely quit - that’s it, he received a pension from the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

And in 2016 they told him: you are not a citizen, your passport is incorrect. And in a couple of months, from January 1, 2017, the loophole for re-registration of citizenship under a simplified scheme for people like him will be closed. He doesn’t even have time to re-issue a passport - according to the law, after 3 months in 2017 he could be deported. The Ministry of Internal Affairs, on the grounds that the passport was confiscated, immediately stopped paying the pension. So what should he do? Here is our system - well, you can come up with something like this in nightmare?

— Passports of the DPR and LPR are recognized in Russia, right?

— Should they wait and hope to obtain Russian citizenship in a simplified manner, as was the case, for example, with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or forget about it and proceed to a long painful procedure?

— Problems are also brewing in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Because time has passed since the issuance of passports, new people are born and do not receive citizenship. The issue of an agreement on dual citizenship, following the example of Tajikistan, is currently being discussed. He is undergoing examination and has not yet been received by us. But he is.

As for the LPR and DPR. Firstly, the problem has been partially resolved by the recognition of these passports. And in this case, if people want to settle in Russia, they will have to go through a certain procedure. Now it will consist in the fact that they will refuse LPR and DPR passports and resort to a program of native Russian speakers or voluntary resettlement. We will try to make these programs as easy as possible, to make the program for native Russian speakers finally work. There are still many problems there. For example, the commissions that are supposed to accept the language are not working. How they receive it is the second problem.

We are now trying to achieve this, apparently the head of the presidential department for ensuring the constitutional rights of citizens Maxim Travnikov agrees with me on this. I really hope there will be changes. But I am concerned that our problems are beginning to be drowned out by pension reform. You know that from the very beginning there was a lot of hypocrisy about this too. They say that we are opening the doors of uncontrolled migration to our compatriots, now they will come in large numbers and deprive us of everything, take away all our pensions. Adults told me in all seriousness: they will covet our pensions and maternal capital. I say: these cannot be the same people - if they receive pensions, they clearly cannot claim maternity capital. No, the bosses put it all together in their heads.

Relatively speaking, they imagine our economy and social sphere like a pie. You and I, each of us, own a certain share of this pie. But these bad newcomers, even if they are Russian, will snatch away from our share. They don’t understand that people will come and work and create a new GDP. And they hammer this into the president's head.

— If I’m not mistaken, during the direct line, Vladimir Putin raised the issue of the possible issuance of maternity capital to refugee families.

- Yes, when Rostov region people shouted that they could not achieve anything. So it all continues... In general, our main problem - both under Soviet power and under anti-Soviet power - we proceed from words. We helped in words, but in words we don’t abandon our own. And when it comes to the squiggle, that’s it. Yes, we are kidding, but according to the law!

— Conditional Germany pays benefits to refugees who have nothing to do with it and who, frankly speaking, are quietly hated by many native Germans. What about us? Well, at least for refugees who moved to Russia from the war?

- You know, I don’t even want to raise this question. In a good way - yes, it is necessary, of course. But there must be a working structure that separates the wheat from the chaff, that can certify those who have a reason to receive such assistance, and those who want to receive something without having a reason. For now, I have to remain silent about this - as well as about the need to renounce citizenship for a compatriot in order to obtain Russian citizenship. I’m keeping quiet on this topic for now, because I want to solve the previous problems. If I now say that it would be nice to give them benefits along with citizenship, Siluanov and his comrades will simply bury us here.

Why am I pushing the Russian speaker program? Because I see that there are no material costs from the outside Russian state. I can't be accused of multiplying costs.

I introduced another law - on the right to political asylum in Russia. Do you know about the problem associated with political emigrants in Russia?

- Certainly.

- Do you know? How many are there?

- And I’ll tell you for sure - not a single one. Yes, most of those from Ukraine moved for political reasons. But we don’t have any normatively. We have a decree from President Yeltsin in 1997 on the right to political asylum in Russia. Yeltsin made two reservations: firstly, the right to political asylum is not enjoyed by persons from countries with visa-free connections with Russia (and this is all the CIS and Ukraine). And secondly: persons from countries with stable democratic institutions do not enjoy the right to political asylum. That is, this is the whole West. By presidential decree, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must submit a list of these countries to the administration every year for updating. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has never dealt with this since 1997 and has not brought any lists. But we did not provide asylum to anyone - not a single person was given the status of a political emigrant! Here, Yanukovych, Azarov, and Snowden are not political emigrants.

I say: guys, this really bothers us, it’s a shame. In the end, this narrows our ability to influence the situation in these countries. Our oppositionists do not find refuge, we cannot influence through them, keep those who are there in check. I take this decree, rewrite it with all the commas - and only exclude these two points. And I introduce it not as a decree, but as a bill. All the powers of the president remain, he decides, we just define it by law.

What are they writing to me? You know, the author of the bill proposes to provide political asylum. This presupposes that people applying for political emigration must undergo an interview. It is necessary to have a special room, a table, a chair, and in the summer - I remember this - air conditioning. And these are federal budget expenses.

- No, well, this is generally something unreal.

- Show? I'll ask for it to be forwarded to you. So, federal budget expenditures. This means that this law needs to be sent to the government for review in the prescribed manner, so that they identify the sources of expenses for the implementation of these enormous expenses. There is not a single political emigrant, and if they appear, you will need a table, a chair, an air conditioner... And then the government tells me the same thing, like a carbon copy: there are no sources.

Now we are holding a consultation on a different level, Maxim Travnikov agreed with me. But he believes that this should not be a law, but a decree. He is a reasonable person, they just have this look - you are meddling in someone else’s business.

While we are talking to you, we are conducting a dialogue with the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which is responsible for migration. We inform him about everything: here are our ideas, here is a preliminary draft. Then they create in deep secret. A bill appears that they submitted to the government. They do not have the right of legislative initiative - only the government as such has it. No ministry can contribute anything directly to the Duma.

So, the government is sending us a bill according to which the categories of persons who are entitled to simplified acquisition of citizenship are determined by presidential decree. This is the kind of reform we have. That is, yes, everything can be simplified - but the president decides. So they put together a document - an amazing legislative proposal. Let us now take any problem, for example, the budget of the Russian Federation. We're arguing about it, aren't we? Let’s write now: the budget of the Russian Federation is determined by the president. And that’s it, and the controversy is over - don’t you believe the president?

That is, people, compatriots, are sitting, watching what is happening in Russia, wanting to return, waiting for the law to come out. They are told: no, the president determines this. What does the president determine there? Will it determine or not determine how to build their life later? Soldier's decision.
This is the answer to a straight line. And they presented it publicly as the fruit of many months of thought.

- To summarize: there have been positive personnel changes in the presidential administration, Russians who want to become Russians have hope for the best - right?

- Yes. At least there are, as they say in such cases, 100 days that need to be endured in the hope that they will sort it out. We officially contacted the AP with a request to hold a meeting on our issues. We are talking about political asylum, citizenship of children, migration amnesty, DPR and LPR, Ukrainian refugees. Unlike the previous ones, they communicate with us. I spent four hours with the head of the department, he gathered all his people, and we looked into the situation in detail. But they are still avoiding an official meeting.

- Why?

“They haven’t come to definite conclusions yet.” Need time. What I’m afraid of is that they will roll out their own bill next...

— Based on yours?

- Yes. They will say, here it is - and what will be written there is unknown. At least that's how it worked before. We have 80% passed laws submitted on behalf of the president and government. Deputies can write or not write; government bills still have priority.

It's not that I'm jealous of that. If they put in the right things, I'll be happy. But this bill of the Ministry of Internal Affairs depresses me, because now it is a government bill. Officially submitted to the State Duma. It provides a hypothetical opportunity to solve some problems, but does not explain anything to people. "The President decides."

— What is the problem of “citizenship of children” that you mentioned?

— We are talking about marriages when one of the parents is a citizen of Russia, and the second is a citizen of another state. We currently have the following standard. If a child is born into such a family, the child’s citizenship is determined by the application of the parent, a citizen of the Russian Federation. This is if it happens in Russia. In 14 years he will receive a Russian passport.

And if this family went abroad, a child was born. Yes, you need to write an application, but at the same time you need to attach the consent of the foreign parent. This provision does not exist in any other legislation in the world. Just imagine, the second parent says: I won’t give consent. And it begins - the theft of children, divorces. If this is the Middle East and the wife is a citizen of the Russian Federation, she doesn’t even have a reason. There is a whole association of mothers-victims.

Violation of the Constitution of the Russian Federation. The rights of a citizen of the Russian Federation have been violated. A citizen of the Russian Federation, regardless of where he lives - in Russia or on the Moon - has equal rights. He cannot be deprived of his rights by the fact that if he, they say, lives on the Moon, then the consent of the Lunarian is necessary. If he lives in Russia, no one requires such consent.

In the Fifth Duma, I twice introduced bills trying to solve this problem. My colleagues rolled them regularly. When such a bill was introduced in 2012 Dmitry Medvedev, while still being president, it was really inconvenient, he’s still the president. So in 2014 this decision was made in the State Duma. But the wise deputy Pligin, a recognized lawyer, wrote the following: yes, we remove this need, but the bill says - if upon reaching adulthood it turns out that this young man has a second citizenship and he does not renounce this citizenship, then we will deprive him of Russian citizenship. And at that time there was not even a provision in the Constitution according to which a person could be deprived of citizenship. Now it’s possible, but at that time there wasn’t even such a norm.

This law passed from the State Duma to the Federation Council, and was vetoed there. Because you have no right to deprive a person of citizenship. Everything was done in such a way as to meet the presidential bill halfway and confuse it.

Here you and I are citizens of the Russian Federation, tomorrow I will go and ask, for example, for French citizenship - I have every right. I can be like Posner, who is a citizen of Russia, France and the USA, and it’s okay, he speaks on TV. True, he cannot now be president, deputy, or minister. But he somehow copes with this misfortune.

I know Pligin, he is a recognized person in constitutional law... The feint with the amendments he introduced to the law on children is the same as if the Pope made a statement: “Damn it, I’m sick of these sermons!” Then everyone would think - why does he occupy this position with such ideas about God?..

P.S. Konstantin Zatulin: “I gave this interview before the murder of Alexander Zakharchenko. This crime of the Kyiv authorities, of course, makes serious adjustments to the situation with the DPR and LPR. It is not yet entirely clear what will happen. But the consequences are inevitable.

And yet, I decided not to change anything in the text that you read. I don’t want to be a strong hindsight.”

1 The organization is prohibited on the territory of the Russian Federation.

Euromaidan is the cause of all current problems in Ukraine

At first I'll briefly tell you everything about current state various disputed regions around Russia, and then I will describe the consequences of the recognition of the DPR and LPR in the form of a chronicle of the collapse of Ukraine.

Why Russia recognized Abkhazia and Crimea, but did not recognize the DPR

The DPR and LPR are self-proclaimed republics. At the moment, they are not recognized by any country that is a member of the UN. The only state that has recognized them is South Ossetia, but it itself does not have the status of a full-fledged state entity.

Although outwardly the situation in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea is the same as the LDPR, at the state level their situation is very different.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are regions where Russian peacekeepers were initially present. Georgia's attack on these regions led to a "peace enforcement operation." As a result, Russia has the prerequisites not only to use force, but also to recognize the independence of these regions as a result of open aggression against the civilian population and its military personnel.

If there had been Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk until 2014, the situation would have been repeated by analogy with Abkhazia. But that didn't happen.

It’s even easier in Crimea. Here originally stood Russian military and naval base. Moreover, Crimea is a separate state entity - a republic. Therefore, according to international standards, holding a referendum, especially after the coup in Ukraine, fully complies with UN standards.

In the case of Donetsk and Lugansk, these areas are just regions of Ukraine, they are not republics like Crimea, and there were no peacekeepers or Russian troops there. Therefore, at the official level, Russia cannot recognize the LDPR without recognizing them by the UN or other UN member countries.

In what case will Russia recognize the LDPR?

If the Minsk agreements are disrupted and Ukraine commits some kind of terrorist attack that will lead to mass casualties, or starts a new war, this will mean Ukraine’s withdrawal from these agreements.

Accordingly, Russia will have a formal reason to use the “last argument of kings” - to recognize the independence of the LDPR and send its troops to Donbass.

What will happen after Russia recognizes the LDPR. Chronicle of the collapse of Ukraine

1. Recognition of the LDPR means that in the eyes of the Russian Federation they will become full-fledged sovereign states, and not regions of Ukraine. This also means that Russia will be able to enter into formal agreements with them.

2. Immediately after such recognition(due to the attack by Ukraine) two treaties will be signed. The first is the Treaty of Friendship with the LDPR. The second is an agreement on military assistance in case of aggression.

The airborne assault battalion of the Russian Airborne Forces is operating

What is the US doing? - But they don’t do anything. In a military sense, even NATO will not be able to compete with Russia - no one will start World War III for the sake of Ukraine, especially considering the personal territorial claims to Ukraine of Poland, Hungary and Romania. It is much easier for these NATO countries to observe and “on the quiet” to steal from Ukraine the areas that they consider their own.

3. After the entry of the regular army Russia and after the use of modern means of war, the Ukrainian army together with the National Guard, at best, retreats, or surrenders to the Russian troops and Donbass militias (the majority of the military in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not fight against the Russians).

True, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine will surrender, but the National Guard understands that in Russia the Investigative Committee and long-term work on the development of Siberia and the Far North await them under the supervision of gloomy guys in blouses.

Sanctions are getting stronger , there is real hysteria at the UN, but Russia and China easily block any decisions of the Security Council. Angela Merkel, as the leader of the European Union, receives assurances from Putin that the Russian army will not go to Kyiv, the panic in NATO calms down slightly. In the end, if you look at things soberly, then they have already said goodbye to Crimea and Donetsk a long time ago.

Kyiv, in panic, is drawing troops to the conflict zone and the Verkhovna Rada to protect the government, exposing its flanks. Of course, in the conflict zone, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are at a respectful distance from Russian armored forces and airborne forces.

4. Other regions of Ukraine receive a clear signal: if you want, you can secede from Ukraine. Believe me, there are many sensible people in Ukraine who do not write on social networks and sit quietly, since any manifestation of love for Russia can result in a prison sentence for betraying national interests. They just sit and wait for the right moment.

And now such a moment comes. Millions of guns from looted military warehouses and from the conflict zone in Donbass are “walking” in the hands of the population. In addition, there will always be “businessmen” who, in the wake of patriotism, will want to “pinch off” a piece of power for themselves. And for this you need to take power.

As a result, taking advantage of the fact that Kyiv has exposed its flanks and herded troops into the “ATO” zone and towards the capital, pro-Russian forces are rising in Odessa, Kharkov, Kherson, and Zaporozhye.

The same thing is happening in the Transcarpathian region and Bukovina, but pro-Hungarian and pro-Romanian forces are rising. Here are the options - Hungarians and Romanians can send in their troops “to protect their citizens”. And there are many citizens there - tens and hundreds of thousands of Bucharest and Budapest have distributed their passports to residents of this region.

By the way, in Transcarpathia the population definitely has thousands of guns in their hands, and they can defend themselves against Ukraine there as easily as in Crimea - by blocking just a few passes in the Carpathians.

5. The Kharkov, Southern, Zaporozhye and Odessa republics are formed. Perhaps other regions will catch up too. The situation is completely out of Kyiv's control. Perhaps many functionaries of the current government, led by Mr. Poroshenko, are urgently packing their bags and flying to their villas in Spain and the USA.

6. Poland files 100 thousand claims Polish citizens to their lands and objects in Western Ukraine, which were taken away and nationalized after the arrival of Soviet troops there in 1939. Many publications in Poland, Russia and Ukraine wrote that these lawsuits are ready and waiting in the wings.

Western Ukraine is gradually “swimming away” towards Warsaw, where Ukrainian nationalists are ready to recall the Volyn massacre, in which hundreds of thousands of Polish women and children died.

6. The state of Ukraine is “shrinking” to several central regions. Perhaps the government is changing to a pro-Russian one. But these are already details.

In general, in this place we can confidently say - finita la commedia.

P.S. Oh, I forgot - sanctions, of course, continue to be imposed.If only there were Russia, there would always be a reason...