Russian heating equipment market: current state and prospects. Heating market research

The opposite trend is observed for, whose popularity by this winter has decreased by more than 3 times compared to 2014-2015. By the way, it was electric fireplaces that were the leaders in demand in the winter of 2013-2014! The dynamics are similar for water heaters: a slight rise in 2014-2015, and then a protracted decline.

It should be noted that this winter the popularity of energy-efficient solutions has increased, among which, from the Top 30 of our catalog, we included the already mentioned Heat accumulators, indirect heating and Electrical.

Demand analysis by major cities

We calculated the Top 15 cities by the number of visits of their residents to the equipment catalog of the portal website. The picture turned out to be interesting. Firstly, 13 out of 15 “top” cities have increased their interest in heating technology. Only St. Petersburg and Samara showed a decrease. Interestingly, Minsk entered the Top 15, ahead of many Russian cities with a population of over a million. Note that the number of entries into the equipment catalog from Moscow is almost twice as high as this value for St. Petersburg, which, in turn, is 1.5 times faster than Krasnodar.

By the way, we did not take into account arrivals from the Moscow and Leningrad regions, otherwise this gap would have been even more noticeable.

Yet total number visits to the catalog are not as indicative as interest in individual categories of equipment by city. We decided to analyze the demand for heating boilers in different cities. To begin with, we made a summary diagram of demand for the 6 most popular categories of boilers over the last two winters.

Market analysis

Russia is one of the countries with a high level of centralized heat supply. This is due to technical policy Soviet Union. Energy, environmental and technical advantage district heating over the autonomous in conditions of overwhelming state ownership was a priori. Autonomous and domestic heat supply to individual houses was taken out of the energy sector and developed according to the residual principle. High development received combined heat and power plants (CHPs) - enterprises for the integrated production of electricity and heat. Technologically, CHP plants are focused on the priority of power supply, and the associated heat is in greater demand in cold period year, and in the warm period of the year it is uselessly dumped into environment. Harmonize thermal and electrical energy It is not always possible to manage their consumption regimen. Thus, with a reserve of thermal capacity in Moscow of 2-3%, the overproduction of electricity reaches 40%. Nevertheless, high level large-scale energy sector predetermined “technological independence” and even a certain export potential of the country, which cannot be said about small-scale thermal power engineering. Low prices on fuel resources, the economically unreasonable price of thermal energy did not contribute to the development of small boiler technology.

The environmental aspect of the problem is only last years begins to move into the economic plane. But even today, the concept of “environmental damage” has a very conditional financial equivalent, except for the attempt in 2000 to sell quotas for the emission of harmful combustion products into the atmosphere to the West.

Several dozen technologically advanced boiler houses imported from Germany, Finland, and Italy in the 70-80s as part of production facilities purchased abroad did not stimulate the development of small boiler manufacturing.

Until now, millions of rural residents use clay or brick kilns with coefficient energy efficiency, not exceeding 30-40%.

Compared to Russia, the specifics of heat supply in European countries are heterogeneous. Italy, Spain, France give priority to apartment heating with wall-mounted gas boilers. In Germany, England, Belgium, Austria, along with door-to-door systems heat supply, autonomous house boiler houses are actively developing. Countries of Eastern Europe kept high specific gravity centralized heating. Scandinavian countries, and especially Denmark, are curtailing apartment heating in favor of centralized autonomous sources average power.

During the years of transition to a market economy, the Russian boiler equipment market has undergone serious changes, which are reflected in the following:

1. The production of large boilers at domestic enterprises (5 MW or more) has sharply decreased.

2. The production volume of domestic boilers of medium power (0.25-1 MW) has increased.

3. There are trends towards growth in the production of household gas boilers (10-40 kW).

4. The import of boilers in all power classes has increased sharply.

The main factors determining the prospects for the development of heat supply in Russia include:

1. A course towards restructuring the unified energy system with the formation of a 3-tier system of enterprises: producers, suppliers and sellers of energy. The restructuring will be accompanied by a redistribution of property into energy complex in favor of private enterprise. It is expected to attract large investments, mainly from abroad. IN in this case restructuring will affect “big energy”.

2. Housing and communal reform, aimed at reducing and removing subsidies to the population in payment, including for thermal energy.

3. Stable economic growth in the construction sector.

4. Integration of advanced heat and power technologies from Western countries into the country's economy.

5. Revision of the regulatory framework for the thermal power industry in favor of large investors. Lobbying in federal and regional regulatory and licensing authorities for products of large suppliers.

6. Approaching domestic prices on fuel and energy resources to the world's. Formation of a “deficit” of fuel resources for export potential in the domestic market, and first of all, natural gas and oil. Increasing the share of coal and peat in the country's fuel balance.

In the near future we should expect an increase in the share of small thermal power engineering: autonomous boiler houses up to 5 MW and domestic boiler houses up to 100 kW. The prerequisites for such a forecast are:

Containing the construction of facilities with limited centralized heat supply resources;

Sufficiency of relatively small investments in small thermal power engineering;

Attractiveness Russian market small boilers for foreign suppliers; with the overproduction of small boilers in Europe and America, Russian manufacturers for the most part do not compete with them in terms of efficiency, ecology and design;

The interest of large suppliers of fuel and energy resources in creating their own energy infrastructure as an alternative to energy monopolists. Having “limits” on the supply of gas and light liquid fuel, such complexes may be interested in regional monopolization of the highly profitable technological sector of small-scale thermal power engineering.

The main areas of application of domestic gas boilers are the residential construction sector. Application of boilers low power(up to 100 kW) in industrial and civil buildings is fragmentary in nature and has no practical influence on the formation of the market for this equipment.

Table 7 shows the structure of heat supply to residential buildings in 2006-2007. The predominant sector of the heat supply market for domestic boilers is cottage villages, individual cottages, rural construction, dachas. The use of domestic gas boilers in new buildings is estimated at approximately 35-40 thousand units per year.

The increase in housing stock in the country by the end of 2008, according to State Committee statistics will be 2.9%. The bulk of sales of household gas boilers account for the replacement of physically and morally outdated equipment, which amounts to 160-180 thousand units of equipment per year.

Gas boilers are the most promising in the range of domestic heat sources. Approximate structure Sales of domestic boilers by fuel type for 2009 are given in Table 8.

The basis for the growth in sales of domestic gas boilers is the increase in the area of ​​residential buildings heated by individual heat supply sources.

Three options for forecasting the development of the base are accepted for consideration.

Table 9 - Market development options

The total area of ​​buildings heated by domestic gas boilers is estimated at 250-280 million m2, which corresponds to 2.3-2.5 million household gas boilers currently in operation. Of the total annual sales of domestic gas boilers of 240,000 units. approximately 35,000 pcs. go to new buildings, the rest to replace physically or morally outdated models.

It should be noted that in the first option, the construction base of the “national” boiler, by Russian standards, of the AOGV or KChM class will remain stable at the level of 85% of the total market.

The second and third options involve a gradual increase in the share of sales volumes of high-tech boilers and especially wall-mounted double-circuit boilers with a sealed combustion chamber from 15 to 25% by 2010 under the second option and up to 32% under the third option. Thus, the need for high-tech boilers may increase by 2010 to 80-110 thousand units. in year.

If we talk about long-term trends and analogies for the development of heat supply in the market conditions of Western European countries, then we can predict in our country an increase in the share of autonomous heat supply in the overall balance to 25-30% from approximately equal division for individual domestic boilers and autonomous low-power boiler houses (up to 3 MW).

To the level of the Italian autonomous market individual heating household gas boilers with a sales volume of 1 million units. per year it is unlikely that Russia will come out before 2020-2030.

Significant adjustments to the structure of the domestic boiler market in Russia can be made by the organization of serial domestic production of high-tech heat generators. Metal-intensive boilers with low energy efficiency and environmental friendliness should be replaced by domestic boilers world class, but taking into account the peculiarities of equipment operation in Russia.

The analysis of the demand structure allows us to offer Russian manufacturers the following optimal output structure, shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8 - Structure of optimal production of domestic gas boilers for the short term in terms of unit capacity

Using such a production structure, the enterprise can count on a high level of sales, determined by market demands.

Anton Totmakov, Deputy Director of Litvinchuk Marketing

Overview of the water heating systems market from Litvinchuk Marketing.

As for market dynamics, in 2015, with quantitative measurement in all three segments it turned out to be negative. In 2015, compared to 2014, the boiler market fell by 19%, the pipe and radiator market fell by 16%. “Made in Russia” The share of Russian products is very different in all three segments.

Within the radiator, pipe and boiler markets there are segments with high share domestic products. For example, in the pressure pipe market segment polypropylene pipes more than 50% consists of products manufactured in Russia.

In the boiler equipment segment industrial boilers- more than 50% Russian assembly. In heating radiators, the most import-substituted segment is the convector segment.

Market Trends

At the end of 2015, the market dropped by 16% in terms of quantity and by 23% in terms of money (calculated in EUR). The reason for the disproportion is the significant growth of the “super-economy” segment against the background of a sharp drop in the share of European radiators. At the same time, the year was marked by a significant reduction in trade margins at all levels of the distribution system - from manufacturers to final sellers.

If we consider steel panel radiators, then last year factory prices for them decreased, although this has nothing to do with the weakening of the ruble - world prices for steel have been gradually declining over the past three years. As for segments with high added value (for example, steel tubular and design radiators, expensive convectors), their value is influenced by exchange rates to the ruble much more than the price of metal. For most positions, rates are fixed at the time of conclusion of contracts.

The psychology of consumer behavior has changed greatly since the 2009 crisis. Now the buyer’s choice is increasingly choosing inexpensive goods, and the economy segment is actively growing. At the same time, premium consumption is quite stable, and if it changes, it is at a much slower pace.

Rapid growth of the “lightweight” segment aluminum radiators is one of the proofs of this assumption. Already in 2014, the main market segments stopped growing and negative dynamics emerged; in 2015, this trend continued its development. There are several reasons for this state of affairs.

Firstly, it affected general state Russian economy and a significant drop in the purchasing power of the population, which began at the end of 2014. Even the record pace of housing commissioning did not help (81.3 million square meters of residential space in 2014 and 81.5 in 2015, against 70.5 million square meters in 2013).

Secondly, sales on the secondary market show all signs of saturation. Sales of replacement radiators, which peaked in 2012-2013 (up to 70% of all sales), began to decline already in 2014. In 2015, there was an expected reduction in this segment. The fact is that people with high and middle incomes for the most part have long ago replaced outdated and unaesthetic appliances with more modern ones. And those who received (and receive) low incomes had no time to replace radiators in 2015.

According to our estimates, over the past 10 years, from 58 to 65% of all heating devices have been replaced, that is, their fleet is very fresh. Therefore, the number of replacements was expected to decline sharply in the coming years, even without the participation of a crisis. We can say that the crisis will make this process smoother and less painful. At the same time, the fall will primarily affect the market of aluminum and bimetallic radiators, which were mainly used to replace old cast iron “batteries” and convectors.

It can be predicted that in 2015-2017 the replacement market will decrease by 40-50%, and the sales market for new construction - by 20-25%. Moreover, in 2016 the radiator market is expected to decline by 25%. At the same time, the market for panel-type appliances (90% of them go to new buildings) is unlikely to decrease by more than 10-15%, and expensive design radiators going to luxury housing will hardly suffer.

Understanding the main drivers and market trends allows you to correctly allocate the company's resources, which is necessary for the formation long term strategy sales and business development. Let's look at the dynamics of sales of gas boilers in Russia from 2008 to 2015.

The gas boiler market grew steadily until 2014, with the exception of short-term declines in 2009-2013. If the decline in 2009 was a consequence of the global financial crisis, then the fall of 2013 was a consequence of political and financial problems directly in Russia, whose economy was on the verge of recession.

The positive indicators of 2014 are not associated with positive processes; on the contrary, the sharp weakening of the Russian ruble, caused by the rapid decline in world oil prices, led to inflation. The population, remembering past crises, got rid of the depreciating national currency and massively bought everything that might be needed in the foreseeable future, including boilers. It was this fact that influenced the data in 2015, when we saw a sharp drop, especially compared to the breakthrough year (Fig. 1).

According to the TOP-Marketing agency; Regarding the supply of boilers, based on the results of nine months of 2016, we see a decrease of 15% compared to 2015. This suggests that the current decline in sales is protracted and can be considered as a trend, which is significantly different from the situation in 2009. To understand the reasons for what is happening, let’s consider the factors influencing the market gas equipment key influence.

First of all, this is construction. Until mid-2014, this industry was on the rise. For example, in 2014, 84.2 million m2 of housing were put into operation, which amounted to 118.2% by 2013. In 2015, 83.8 million m2 were already commissioned, which is only 99.5%, and for individual developers - only 94.6 % by 2014. According to the forecasts of specialists from the Ministry of Construction and Housing and Communal Services of the Russian Federation, in 2016 only 76 million m2 of housing will be put into operation in Russia.

Secondly, this is gasification of the regions. As a result of the implementation of the gasification program for the regions of the Russian Federation from 2005 to 2015, the average level of gasification in Russia increased from 53.3 to 66.2%, including in cities from 60 to 70.4%, in rural areas- from 34.8 to 56.1%.

In the near future, this growth factor should not be overestimated, since PJSC Gazprom in 2016 selectively “cut” the volume of investments, taking into account the fulfillment of the obligations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Many experts associate the prospects for the gas boiler market in Russia with the program announced at the state level for the transfer from central heating to individual. But, as practice has shown, the implementation of the plans of the country’s leadership to implement energy efficient technologies turned out to be an occupation fraught with considerable difficulties. Most investors are concerned not with how to launch new projects, but with how to complete existing ones with minimal losses.

This happens for a number of reasons, including high inflation, low solvency of the population, unstable economic situation, and gaps in the legislative framework.

In my opinion, the market for replacing obsolete equipment will develop most actively in the near future. Of course, with a decrease in income and loss of savings, many consumers will try to prolong the operation of boilers as much as possible through repairs, but the cost of spare parts and services will not allow them to do this for a relatively long time.

How to estimate the size of the replacement market? The most simple technique based on the relationship between the average life of the boiler and sales history. Taking into account the quality of products, installation and operating conditions, the service life of each individual unit may be above or below the average. According to experts, on average a household uses a wall-mounted gas boiler for approximately 8-10 years, a floor-standing cast iron boiler for 20 years, and a floor-standing steel boiler (made in post-Soviet times) for up to 10 years. Sales of floor-standing gas boilers are not developing as dynamically as wall-mounted ones. Taking into account sales in 2006 (620 thousand units) and 2015 (480 thousand units), it can be argued that almost all floor standing boilers bought instead of old ones. Most often, floor-standing boilers are part gravitational systems heating, so when replacing floor boiler to wall-mounted it is necessary to change the entire system.

Sales of wall-mounted gas boilers in 2005 amounted to 124 thousand units. Considering that average term their service life is 10 years, in 2015 the replacement market was 21%, in 2016 it is 35%. The dynamics of sales of wall-mounted gas boilers over the past 10 years demonstrates that the replacement market share will grow at an accelerated pace (Fig. 2). If there are no sharp positive changes, the share of the replacement segment in the market will be more than 50% in the next two years.

Besides economic factors, the gas equipment market is significantly influenced by changes taking place in society as a whole, radically changing people’s habits. All higher value for a person acquires information received on the Internet. The number of Internet users in Russia in 2015 increased by 9.2% to 80.5 million people, with 66.5 million people accessing the Internet every day. In 2017, the share of users over 18 years of age who use the Internet daily will increase to 70% (with an optimistic scenario - 81%), and by the end of 2020 - 76 % (with an optimistic scenario - 85%).

According to online commerce market research conducted in February 2016 by PayPal and Data Insight, 20% of purchases of goods for the home and garden are made in online stores (Fig. 3). This segment also includes domestic boilers. The Internet is not only a powerful sales channel, but also the main promotion tool. Even those who still prefer to purchase goods offline first receive information about them on the Internet - 23% of those who bought goods in a store made their choice in advance, having gained knowledge on forums, in social networks, on manufacturers’ websites, by watching videos, etc.

Also, one of the significant trends should be the increase in consumer independence when choosing a gas boiler. This is especially significant in the case of equipment replacement, when there is no need to change the system and contact designers, but you just need to choose a modern boiler and chimney complete. As shown by a study conducted by Vailant Group Rus LLC together with Emerald Advertising based on focus groups in 2013, homeowners who already use gas boilers, are distrustful of installers and plan to make the choice themselves when replacing equipment. Thanks to the informatization of society, consumers increasingly collect information on the Internet and buy a boiler themselves, only then contacting an installation specialist.

A decrease in household incomes leads to a shift of the market to the “economy” segment, which in turn is the reason for the emergence of several trends. Firstly, the supply chain of products from manufacturer to consumer is shortened. The difference between the cost of the boiler and the competitive retail price is often not large enough to cover the costs and provide a margin for each participant. As a result, the boundaries of sales geography are becoming more and more arbitrary for many players.

Secondly, as a result of fierce competition and market compaction, players are forced to sacrifice profits, which are already declining from year to year. It happens that the seller does not earn anything from the sale of the boiler, compensating for lost profits through accessories.

Thirdly, manufacturers are replenishing their product lines with budget models, the price of which is 15-20 % lower than those that the companies released to the market before. Over the past two years, most European manufacturers have introduced new budget boiler models to the market.

To summarize, I would still like to point out that after any sharp decline, an increase most often follows. The situation in the country is difficult, but at the end of 2016, the international agency Standard & Poor’s raised the forecast for Russia’s sovereign ratings to “stable” - according to the agency, GDP growth could be more than 1.5% in the next two years. Therefore, it is not worth saying that the gas equipment sales market will stagnate for a long time. There are growth drivers in our segment - firstly, the replacement market, and secondly, the transfer of the population from central heating to individual heating. Among the positive trends, I would highlight “digitalization”, which allows you to quickly convey information about products to the consumer, giving him the opportunity to make conscious choice. Competition will intensify, but it will spur players to optimize business processes and reduce costs, and develop new approaches to sales and promotion. We live and work in difficult, but very interesting time, which opens up enormous prospects for creativity, courage and determination.

Methodology. The main source of information about the volume of equipment imported to the Russian market is customs declarations. In this case, a version of the base with reverse sheets is used. If someone thinks that equipment is still being imported to Russia like “crushed tomatoes,” then this is not entirely true. More precisely, not at all like that. For most brands, the maximum that is distorted is the invoice (statistical) value, on which customs duties and VAT are paid. The vast majority of declarations contain the exact designation of imported models and their quantity. The share of declarations in which data on models is indicated incorrectly (this can often be determined by the discrepancy between the actual weight and the weight of the indicated models) does not exceed 5-7%. On a market scale, a value comparable to a statistical error.

Information on Russian factories is drawn from Goskomstat data and again checked by customs, since almost all domestic factories use imported components to one degree or another. Exports are also studied, which is important when determining the domestic market (many foreign agencies “confuse” the volume of production in Russia and sales of domestic factories on the Russian market).

In preparing the above reports, declarations for 2004-2009 were studied and analyzed.

At the second stage of the study, data on market leaders is necessarily checked through personal communication with representative offices of manufacturing companies and leading distributors. It is in this order, and not otherwise.

Why are such reports needed? Unlike the vast majority of marketing reports, this is not just water with a few numbers, but clearly structured data, equipped with the necessary minimum comments.

First, they allow you to see the model breakdown in each segment of interest. When purchasing reports, you can receive a file in Excel format that contains data on sales volumes of specific models (all main characteristics are indicated) for all major brands. Having this file and using the “filter” system, you can analyze the situation in any narrowest market segment (of interest to a specific company) within a few minutes. For example, select only condensing boilers and compare sales results for specific models depending on price.

Secondly, you can segment the market precisely and evaluate your company’s share not “on average for the hospital,” but by individual positions. Often, in some narrow segments the situation turns out to be quite satisfactory, while in others it gives reason for reflection.

Thirdly, Litvinchuk Marketing reports make it possible with 100% confidence not to miss the emergence of new players on the market, including various OEMs. Assess actual sales volumes for models and series that directly compete with your product. Understand from which plant your competitor orders equipment, track how he changes plants (especially relevant for the water heater market).

Fourthly, when purchasing reports from Litvinchuk Marketing, you are not just paying money for a “stack of sheets of paper.” Purchasing reports gives you the right to consult on the topic of the purchased report for a year, until the release of an updated report on this topic. For example, request data on how certain competitors clear goods at customs (codes, declared price, customs terminal). Reports contain only the most necessary information (otherwise they will turn into unreadable “talmuds”), everything else can be transferred upon request from the customer.

How do these reports differ from those of BRG and other Western agencies?

First of all, they are an ORDER of fuller. This can be easily seen by the number of brands represented in the reports. Litvinchuk Marketing reports include ALL significant brands; Western reports include the main European manufacturers and some domestic ones. Many leading players (including those from the top ten) were ignored. The periodic loss of a number of players in Western reports affects not only capacity, but also market dynamics. And an error in dynamics is an error in market behavior strategy.

Secondly, Western reports present data from manufacturers themselves. This means that the numbers were announced by specific people. And these people can make mistakes (often not on purpose). For example, name not the volume sold to Russia, but the volume sold to a Russian distributor (who may also operate in Ukraine and Kazakhstan) or name not the actual sales volumes, but the goals set. As practice shows, for many players sales volumes are simply approximated based on the expected dynamics of the market or the dynamics of other players. In the Litvinchuk Marketing reports, the figures are supported by customs declarations, that is, documented. There is an Excel file that can be examined to verify the accuracy of the information provided.

Thirdly, Litvinchuk Marketing reports contain very detailed breakdowns of power (boilers, instantaneous water heaters), containers (water heaters accumulative type), the material of the boiler heat exchanger (water heater tank), the presence of a hot water supply circuit, etc., which allow us to evaluate the market structure in detail and see the shares of specific brands in individual market segments.

Fourthly, model-by-model analysis allows us to adequately compare turnover across different brands. It is dangerous to take turnovers from the words of market players, since figures are often quoted in incomparable prices (dealer, factory, retail), often they are not cleared of related equipment (pumps, expansion tanks, automation), etc. It is also possible to estimate the shares of brands in power terms, which is especially important for boilers.

Fifthly, purchasing Litvinchuk Marketing reports gives you the right to receive additional information on the topic of the purchased report until the release of the report update (in a year). You can also receive up-to-date information about the current state of the market.

Russian water heater market

The Russian water heater market report contains all the basic information on the structure, volume, dynamics and main trends in the Russian water heater market, broken down by brand and supplier.

A breakdown into price segments is given.

• The report covers the following equipment categories:
• Electric storage water heaters,
• Electric instantaneous water heaters,
• Gas storage water heaters,
• Gas instantaneous water heaters,

Combined water heaters and water-water boilers.

• The report provides a detailed structure of the market in terms of the power of instantaneous water heaters and the capacity of storage water heaters. For electric storage water heaters, the structure according to the type of tank is given.

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