Regional labor market. Economic activity and employment.

The development of both federal and regional labor markets depends most heavily on macroeconomic factors. What was common to all subjects of the Russian Federation was a significant reduction in economic activity and employment during the crisis period of 1992-1998, and then a post-default increase in activity and employment due to economic recovery. However, already in 2001. this growth ceased to be general and was replaced by a new decline in 63 regions (71% of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation). Despite continued economic growth, the stage of “recovery” growth in economic activity and employment after financial crisis 1998 mostly completed. Only since 2005 The second wave of employment growth began, covering the vast majority of regions. It was the result of a steady increase in demand for labor in all sectors of the economy. This period ended in the fall of 2008. with the onset of a new economic crisis.

In general, for 1990-2007. The level of economic activity of the population decreased slightly - from 70 to 67% at the age of 15-72 years. Territorial differences in economic activity are inertial, because they depend on inherited characteristics - demographic, settlement and sociocultural. More than half of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation have average Russian indicators, but two contrasting groups remain:

Northern and northeastern regions of new development, as well as agglomerations of federal cities with high level economic activity of the population (68-80%);

More agricultural and underdeveloped regions of the European south and southern Siberia with reduced economic activity (40-60%).

In the country as a whole, the employment level in 2008 was accounted for 63% (70.8 million people) of the population aged 15-72 years, in 2009 - 60.6% (69.1 million people), in the Republic of Ingushetia - 25%, in Chechnya - 37%. The employment level in the largest agglomerations (69-72%) is much higher than the Russian average; almost the entire economically active population works in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Maximum performance employment in some sparsely populated autonomous okrugs of the Far North (74-77%) is due to very high share working population. Composition of the unemployed by level vocational education shown in Table 24.

Table 24.

Composition of the unemployed by occupational level. education in 2008
(according to a sample survey of the population on employment problems; as a percentage of the total).

The employment situation is very similar to that of the economy as a whole: overall figures are encouraging, but detailed study indicates a number of problems. The unemployment rate for 2008 was 6.3%, for 2009 8.2% or 6.1 million. Human. The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed people to the total adult working population in the country. Dynamics of the unemployment rate by region since 1995. in Appendix 5. Lowest unemployment rate in 2009 noted in the Central Federal District (5%), the highest is in the Southern Federal District (11.3%).

Compared to other countries, Russia has a higher unemployment rate. For example, in Latvia this figure is 22.8%, in Spain – 19.5%. It is important that the growth of this indicator over the year is insignificant. According to the ILO (International Labor Organization), in 2009 the number of unemployed people in the world reached a record level of almost 212 million people. This figure demonstrates an unprecedented increase since 2007, when 34 million people were registered as unemployed.

Another indicator is the number of unemployed per one vacant job, which characterizes tension in the labor market and demonstrates the real state of affairs in the economy. For Russia, as of 10/01/2009 it was 20.2 people; as of 01/01/2010 it increased to 24.1 people. The absence of new vacancies indicates that enterprises have no plans for production development, and a reduction in the number of vacancies indicates that projects are being curtailed. However, this same indicator may indicate the beginning of production modernization, active implementation new technology and technologies and, as a result, increased labor productivity. But, unfortunately, not for Russia, since “in practice, the introduction of innovation is limited to the purchase oil company a new pump,” says I. Nikolaev, director of the strategic analysis department.

“And finally, such a phenomenon as informal employment is officially estimated by Rosstat at 13 million people,” said T. Maleeva, director of the Independent Institute of Social Policy.

In 2009, the reduction in wages was 5%, and taking into account the “gray” wage market - 8%. According to T. Maleeva’s forecasts, the level of wages in the informal labor market in 2010. will be significantly lower. At the same time, it will also affect official salaries, which, according to her forecasts, will decrease in 2010. by 7-10%. However, the decrease wages in the interests of curbing unemployment, it puts an end to opportunities to increase labor productivity. On the other hand, modernization processes in the economy are always accompanied by an increase in unemployment. Precisely because people in Russia are afraid of unemployment, modernization will not begin.

The Government's program for the development of entrepreneurship and support for starting a business in the amount of 60 to 100 thousand rubles will not be able to ensure the growth of entrepreneurship in Russia and have a serious impact on reducing the unemployment rate. “World experience shows that entrepreneurial talent is inherent in only 7-8% of the population. Creating a class of businessmen from the unemployed is very difficult task. Therefore, we must rely on supporting businessmen who create jobs.”

However, the Government of the Russian Federation considers it advisable to continue in 2010. all programs to promote employment for the population. For these purposes in 2010. 36.3 billion rubles will be allocated, Special attention will be devoted to the implementation of self-employment programs for the population, internships for graduates (they will cover more than 70% of graduates of higher and secondary educational institutions). In addition, in 2010 The costs of mentoring at enterprises will be compensated, and employers will also be paid extra for hiring people with disabilities.

Control questions

1.What are the historical features of urban and rural settlement in the Russian Federation? What are the current trends?

2.What are the reasons for the change ethnic composition in the Russian Federation? What are the trends in the dynamics of the ethnic composition of the national subjects of the Russian Federation?

3.What is the birth rate and its dynamics in the Russian Federation?

4.What are the reasons for migration in Russia? What is labor migration, its “+” and “-“ for the country?

5.Give examples of regions with different levels of employment?

Regional labor markets: dependence on macroeconomic factors

The state of national, regional and local labor markets is determined by the relationship between two main components: labor supply (size of the economically active population, its education, age and professional structure, territorial location and mobility) and labor demand, i.e. existing quantity work places.

Demand for labor depends primarily on macroeconomic trends. When the economy grows, there are more jobs; during a crisis or recession, their number decreases.
In addition, the demand for labor, as well as its supply, depends on the level of wages. In countries and regions with “cheap” labor, the costs of creating new jobs are lower and therefore new labor-intensive industries are more likely to be located. With high wages, employers seek to reduce their costs by automating production or moving it to “cheap” countries or regions, thereby limiting the supply of new jobs in regional or local labor markets The structure of the economy, including the ratio of labor-intensive and non-labor-intensive industries, plays a significant role in shaping demand. In the modern economy, service industries are the most labor-intensive, so in major cities , where the service sector is developing at a faster pace, the supply of jobs is greater, which contributes to better condition

labor markets. In small monofunctional cities, labor markets depend on the position of the city-forming enterprise and are therefore most vulnerable and unstable.

Another factor in the demand for labor is government policy in the field of employment. Firstly, the state acts as a regulator of the labor market, determining the “rules of the game” - hiring and firing workers, social guarantees and social insurance busy. With more severe government regulation and high level social protection employment, typical for Western European countries, employers, as a rule, seek to minimize the risks of additional costs and limit the hiring of workers, which leads to an increase in unemployment.

Secondly, the state influences the labor market as the largest employer, paying at the expense of the state budget for those employed in the field of social services, defense and public order, public administration, etc. The policy of the state, which determines the number and structure of employees in these industries, their level of payment labor also affects employment. If an increase in pay is not accompanied by measures to reduce ineffective employment, the result, as a rule, is an increase in the number of public sector workers. IN Russian regions with underdeveloped economies, especially highly subsidized ones, the public sector has become the leading sector in terms of the number of workers and employment in it continues to grow.

Labor supply depends on population dynamics and gender and age composition. In regions with an incomplete demographic transition and a growing population, employment problems are most acute. They are due, in particular, to the quantitative disproportion between the age cohort of young people entering the labor market and the smaller age cohort of those retiring. This situation is typical for the underdeveloped republics of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia; it is aggravated by the insignificant supply of new jobs.

Disproportion can be not only quantitative, but also structural, when the demand for labor does not coincide with the supply by gender, professional structure, level of education and qualifications.

Many structural mismatches can be mitigated by retraining existing personnel, but this is not always possible. In addition, such an active employment policy is very expensive.

The behavior of the population in the labor market also depends on the level of education, sociocultural characteristics, including the emancipation of women, and territorial mobility. In regions and cities with a higher level of education of the population, its adaptation to changes in demand in the labor market is faster, so unemployment is usually lower. In newly developed regions populated by recent migrants, when the situation on the labor market worsens, migration outflow begins faster, since population mobility is higher. Regional and local labor markets have great potential for self-regulation. Quantitative and structural imbalances in supply and demand can be smoothed out by territorial mobility of the economically active population: moving to a new, seasonal or pendulum labor migration to regions and cities with a greater supply of jobs. However, compared to countries with a developed labor market, the territorial mobility of the population of modern Russia is still low. It is also twice as low as compared to the Soviet period, when labor migration was stimulated by the state or was forced. The main reasons for low mobility in modern Russia are a sparse network of cities and underdeveloped transport infrastructure, preventing pendulum migration, huge price differences in local housing markets and high costs to change their place of residence, which is unaffordable for most households.

So far, only a large “gradient” of socio-economic differences, created simultaneously by push and pull factors, can stimulate territorial mobility, as is observed, for example, in the Moscow agglomeration with its huge demand for labor and its high wages. That's why she became largest center labor force attraction. The radius of labor migration to the capital has sharply expanded: pendulum migration has spread beyond the capital agglomeration to neighboring regions of the Center, labor migration is growing, especially from the regions of the Russian south.

It was the “gradient” of socio-economic differences that led to an increase in labor migration to Russia from the late 1990s of the titular population of the CIS countries, filling jobs with lower wages, made return migrations of the Russian population from these countries economically motivated, and migrants are gradually moving to large urban agglomerations of Russia.

The contrasts are especially pronounced in the northeastern regions of the new development: in the leading oil and gas producing districts with higher wages, the influx of labor migrants continued until the mid-2000s, while the remaining northern and eastern regions have been losing population since the 1990s. Numerous examples of territorial mobility of the population caused by economic factors confirm the development of self-regulation mechanisms in regional labor markets.

Economic activity and employment .

The development of both federal and regional labor markets depends most heavily on macroeconomic factors. Common to all constituent entities of the Russian Federation was a significant reduction in economic activity and employment during the crisis period of 1992-1998, and then a post-default increase in activity and employment due to economic recovery. However, already in 2001, this growth ceased to be general and was replaced by a new decline in 63 regions (71% of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation). Although the economy has continued to grow, the “recovery” growth in economic activity and employment following the 1998 financial crisis has largely ended. Until the mid-2000s, economic activity increased slightly, and employment even declined in some years. At the same time, the geographical picture has become even more mosaic, since employment dynamics increasingly depend on regional factors. In the agglomerations of federal cities, employment growth was stimulated by the creation of new jobs in market service industries. In underdeveloped republics, this was facilitated by an increase in the number of jobs in

social sphere

, financed from the federal budget, but such growth cannot be sustainable. In other regions, the employment level remained almost unchanged until the mid-2000s, and in 2002-2004 it even decreased in half of them.

Regional differences in employment levels are similar, but they depend more heavily on the state of the economy and job dynamics in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In the country as a whole, the employment rate in 2006 was 61.4% of the population aged 15-72 years, and in the Republic of Ingushetia - 17%, in Chechnya - 20%. The employment level in the largest agglomerations (68-70%) is much higher than the Russian average; almost the entire economically active population works in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The maximum employment rates in some sparsely populated autonomous okrugs of the Far North (71-80%) are due to a very high proportion of the working-age population.

Territorial differences in economic activity and employment are largely “programmed” and depend on the inherited characteristics of the region - demographic, sociocultural, settlement, and the existing structure of the economy. Market reforms of the transition period strengthened the advantages and aggravated the defects of the existing territorial inequality of conditions in the labor market, but the economic activity of the population changed little.

1 - By classification International organization labor (ILO) the economically active population includes the population aged 15-72 years employed in the economy and job seeker- unemployed.

The labor market is a set of economic relations for the purchase and sale of such a factor of production as labor. The main subjects of the labor market are, on the one hand, the business sector, which creates demand for labor in order to combine all resources for the production of goods and services and generate profit, and on the other hand, households as owners of labor, offering their labor on the market in order to generate income in the form of wages.

In the labor market they act as an economically active population, including both already employed and unemployed.

The sale of labor has its own specifics compared to the sale of goods and services and financial assets. Since labor is a factor of production, the demand for it is derivative in nature and depends on the demand for final goods and services created with the help of this factor of production. When selling labor, one can note the long duration of the relationship between the seller and the buyer, which is formalized by long-term contracts. An important role is played by non-monetary factors - complexity and working conditions, employee health safety, guarantees professional growth. Institutional structures have a significant impact on the conditions for the sale of labor: trade unions, labor legislation, public policy, entrepreneurs' unions.

The macroeconomic approach to the analysis of this market has the following specific features:

¦ the labor market is considered as a single national market without taking into account sectoral, national, regional and other differences;

¦ the price of labor (wage rate) is established in the market as the only parameter that influences the employment relationship.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the labor market is considered the most imperfect of all national markets. This is explained by the fact that searching for a job takes a long time, many workers are poorly informed about vacancies, and in some cases a positive solution to the issue of employment requires a change of residence or retraining.

Therefore, even full employment presupposes the presence of frictional and structural unemployment.

The functioning of the labor market has its own characteristics in the long and short term. In the long term, all price indicators, including wage rates and price levels, become flexible and with their help, labor market subjects are able to adapt to changes taking place. As a result of this adaptation, the balance of supply and demand in the labor market is ensured and full employment is formed. In the short run, prices and nominal wage rates are rigid and economic entities cannot fully adapt to changes occurring in the labor market, therefore, in the short term, the discrepancy between the demand for labor and the supply of labor can take on a sustainable character in the form of unemployment.

In macroeconomic theory, two main concepts of employment have emerged that explain the functioning of the labor market: neoclassical and Keynesian. The first of them explains the mechanism of functioning of the labor market in the long term, the second - in the short term. Each concept includes three main components:

The theory of labor demand, which clarifies the factors underlying the decisions of entrepreneurs to hire a particular number of workers;

The theory of labor supply, which analyzes the motives of workers that encourage them to make decisions about the supply of a particular amount of labor on the market;

A theory that explains the mechanism for establishing equilibrium in the labor market and the causes of persistent unemployment.

The labor market plays a special role in macroeconomics. First of all, wages, employment and working conditions, which develop under the influence of market forces, decisively determine the level of well-being of workers and their families. Secondly, the amount of wages directly affects household expenses, and, accordingly, aggregate demand. Finally, entrepreneurs’ labor costs amount to essential element production costs of finished products. If the increase in wages outstrips the growth in labor productivity, then costs (expenses) per unit of output increase, which leads to higher prices.

The main thing, however, is that the labor market determines the level of employment and, accordingly, the size of GDP in short period. The fact is that in macroeconomics, as well as in microeconomics, there is a production function showing the dependence of real GDP (Y) on the amount of labor (L) and capital (K): Y=F(K,L). Moreover, in a short period, the amount of capital and production technologies are given, and, therefore, GDP depends only on the amount of labor used: the more of it is used, the higher the output.

The level of employment, as well as wages, are determined in the labor market. At the same time, they distinguish nominal wage- the amount of money that employees receive for their work and real wages- the amount of goods and services that workers are able to buy with their nominal wages. Thus, the value of real wages is determined by dividing the nominal wage (W) by the price level (P) for consumer goods and services: . Similarly, the real wage index is calculated by dividing the nominal wage index by the price index.

The situation on the labor market determines not only employment, but also unemployment, which means that the supply of labor exceeds the demand for it. Neoclassicists and Keynesians explain the functioning of the labor market and the existence of unemployment in different ways.

The neoclassical concept is based on the fact that supply and demand in the labor market depend on real wages: the higher it is, the less demand for labor and the greater its supply. The point at which the supply and demand curves intersect determines the equilibrium real wage as well as the equilibrium level of employment. There is no unemployment in the strict sense of the word here, because... The demand for labor coincides with its supply: everyone who wants to work for a given wage has a job. We can only talk about some voluntary unemployment among those who are not satisfied with the prevailing labor price on the market. Thus, according to neoclassics, the market mechanism automatically ensures full employment in the labor market and, accordingly, the achievement of potential GDP.

Unlike the neoclassicalists, among Keynesians the demand for labor is entirely determined by the aggregate demand for finished products. If aggregate demand is known, then entrepreneurs, relying on production function, determine the number of workers required to produce the corresponding GDP. This level of employment corresponds to the maximum nominal wage rate at which entrepreneurs agree to hire this number of workers.

When aggregate demand decreases, the demand for labor at the same wage also decreases. Unemployment occurs because the supply of labor at this wage exceeds the demand for it. It is important to keep in mind that even if all workers agreed to a wage reduction, this would not lead to an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment, since at a given level of aggregate demand for finished products, the business simply does not need additional workers.

Based on these arguments, Keynesians advocate stimulating aggregate demand using government economic policy methods.

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The mechanism of the labor market is much more complex than that shown in Fig. 3 schemes. To form an idea of ​​the basic concepts of the labor market mechanism and transform them into our reality, let’s consider the main theoretical models of the market in their “historical-logical” sequence.

Classical political economy

Before the Great Depression in the United States, most economists, primarily the so-called classics— D. Ricardo, D.S. Mill, A. Marshall - believed that the market system itself is capable of providing full use resources in the economy, including full employment. It was recognized that in some circumstances there may not be full employment, but the inherent ability of the market system to self-regulate automatically restores the economy to production levels and full employment. The policy of non-interference by the state in the functioning of the economy was recognized as the best economic policy.

The classic statement about full employment in an equilibrium economy is justified by the fact that by competing for available jobs, the unemployed will help lower wage rates, and this process will continue until the wage rate reaches a value at which it becomes profitable for employers to hire everyone available workers, thereby ensuring full employment. This led to the conclusion that involuntary unemployment was impossible.

Keynesianism

Forefather modern theory of employment in market economics is a famous English economist John Maynard Keynes , who in 1936 in his work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” concluded that Under capitalism there is no mechanism to guarantee full employment. The economy can be balanced, say supporters of Keynesianism, i.e. equilibrium of total production can be achieved, but with a significant level of unemployment or significant inflation. Full employment is more random than natural, capitalism is not a self-regulating system, the causes of unemployment and inflation lie in the lack of synchronicity in making the most important economic decisions, in particular decisions on savings and investments. J. M. Keynes believed that the assertions of the classics that investments grow in proportion to the growth of savings are untenable, because savers and investors belong to different groups of economic agents and are guided by different motives. The level of savings, Keynesians say, depends little on the interest rate. Likewise, the rate of interest is not the only factor in investing, but an additional important factor is the expected rate of return on the investment. This is why during a recession in production, despite a reduction in interest rates, the level of investment is low due to low level expected profit.

Keynesianism completely denies and second most important aspect theoretical position of the classics, according to which downward regulation of prices and wages eliminates the impact of unemployment on overall spending. Price-wage elasticity, Keynesians argue, simply does not exist to the extent necessary to restore full employment when aggregate demand declines. A market system is never perfectly competitive. In addition, it is affected by the imperfection of the market mechanism and non-economic factors that significantly reduce the elasticity of prices and wages in relation to aggregate demand, and therefore it is not possible to expect that a decrease in prices and wages will neutralize the consequences of rising unemployment when aggregate demand decreases.

But even if prices and wages were elastic, this would not mitigate the unemployment resulting from a decrease in aggregate demand: a general decrease in wages will only lead to a further decrease in total monetary income and, accordingly, to a general drop in demand for products and labor.

One of the most important conclusions from the above considerations is that the level of employment is directly dependent on the level of aggregate expenditures and production volumes.

The depressive nature of economic development and the high rate of unemployment in capitalist countries in the 30s. J. M. Keynes explained by the insufficiency of expenses, and above all by the insufficiency of demand for investment goods, the reason for which, in turn, was that the expected rate of profit invariably turned out to be lower than the long-term rate of interest in the market borrowed money. One cannot but agree that this thesis fully applies to modern Russian reality.

A purely monetarist policy aimed at reducing the supply of money was recognized by J. M. Keynes as insufficient during the crisis, because it only affects short-term interest rates. To stimulate investment and employment, it is necessary first of all to reduce the long-term interest rate. To achieve this goal, J. M. Keynes strongly recommended an active financial and monetary policy of the state, the impact of which should proceed according to the following scheme: an increase in government spending - the emergence of additional effective demand - an increase in the level of employment and the use of production capacity - the creation of an environment of confidence in sufficiently high and sustainable future rates of profit, reducing speculative demand for liquid assets, primarily money - reducing long-term interest rates - stimulating private investment - long-term revival of economic conditions.

Further economic development capitalist countries (especially the crises of the 70s and 80s in the USA) both confirmed and refuted the main theoretical postulate of J.M. Keynes about the possibility of increasing the degree of utilization of production capacity and reducing the unemployment rate by stimulating effective demand. The fact is that changes in aggregate demand are reflected in changes in net national product and employment only if the price level remains constant. If prices rise, then part or all of the increase in aggregate demand will be canceled out by inflation, and therefore there will be no increase in real output and employment.

Monetarist approach

Monvtarist approach(its leader is generally recognized as Milton Friedman laureate Nobel Prize 1976) is that markets are sufficiently competitive and that the system of market competition itself ensures high degree macroeconomic stability. The ideological roots of monetarism, apparently, go back to the classics and are partly based on Say’s law - “supply creates its own demand.” Money is considered a decisive factor in the indirect regulation of all processes in the economy, and government intervention should be minimized. The problem, from the point of view of monetarists, is precisely that the state, with its clumsy and ill-considered actions in an attempt to stabilize the economy through tax and monetary policy, only intensifies cyclical fluctuations.

Monetarism in terms of stabilizing the economy is implemented by stabilization programs. Typical examples of programs of this kind are: reducing the budget deficit by reducing public investment, social spending, and subsidies; limiting wage growth; restrictive monetary policy; weakening of controls over prices and export-import transactions. There is no doubt that the current Russian government conducts its economic policy primarily in line with the monetarist concept.

Is it possible to say that one of the considered theories is more progressive than the other, and that one of them is better suited to solving the problems of Russian reality? Obviously, it’s impossible to say for sure. The advantages and capabilities of each of them are revealed in their own typical conditions. However, in practical activities Situations are possible in which a tendency towards either Keynesianism or monetarism is revealed. However, from the point of view of studying the mechanism of the labor market, the most important thing is that each of the above-mentioned market theories recognizes financial policy as the main point in regulating all economic processes, including the labor market.