Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Belarus. What will happen to the ruble and the salaries of Belarusians, in what currency should they keep their savings? Expert forecast. What are the results so far?

To date, it is already officially known that the Parliament of the Republic of Belarus has begun to consider the issue of foreign currency, or, more precisely, the possible developments of situations. In other words, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018, Belarus is the number one issue and topic around which a large number of very different and conflicting opinions flare up. Having studied all the prepositional forecast documents, the situation that should be expected will become relatively clear. Although analysts and experts are already unanimous in their opinion, devaluation should not be expected this year.

Expert opinions.

As a rule, in order to provide at least a rough estimate of the dollar exchange rate for this year, government authorities rely on external conditions and indicators. As for internal factors, according to the majority, they only have a positive impact on the dollar in the country. What can be attributed to external factors and what effect do they have? Of course, the cost of oil. Agree, this is the only important and significant external factor, which is also rightfully considered decisive. For example, if the price of oil throughout the year is established and consolidated at $35 per barrel, then the dollar exchange rate in the country will be 2.21 Belarusian rubles. In the event that the price level of oil rises to $45 per barrel, the dollar will be 2.12 Belarusian rubles.

Today, the value of the dollar is 1.96 Belarusian rubles.

Latest news.

One of the main priorities of the political activity of the Belarusian authorities is the establishment of complete de-dollarization in the country. How to understand it? It's simple, the Parliament of the Republic of Belarus decided that by the end of 2018, the use of foreign currency in settlements, as well as in the formation of prices, rates, duties and other payments, should be completely excluded. At the same time, it should be noted that at the same time all necessary measures will be carried out and taken to increase the availability of ruble funds by reducing the interest rate on ruble loans. It is these provisions that are spelled out and established in the program of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus in the period from 2016 to 2020, which was approved by the president.

But why does the country need this de-dollarization? What are its main tasks and goals?

As you can see, the authorities of the Republic of Belarus are taking and taking all the necessary measures to somehow stabilize the situation, even with the most negative forecast for the development of the situation with the dollar exchange rate, while taking into account the facts of how the whole situation will affect the common man.

Purchasing power, inflation and the ruble exchange rate - experts predict what changes may occur in the Belarusian economy next year.

What will happen to the purchasing power of Belarusians?

The purchasing power of Belarusians in 2018 will either be at the current level, or grow quite a bit - by a few percent per year in real terms, a senior analyst at Alpari predicts Vadim Iosub. In his opinion, the most favorable scenario allows the Belarusian economy to count on growth of approximately 2% next year. This is due to high prices for potash fertilizers and refined oil products, as well as the growth of the Russian economy, which will buy Belarusian products, says Vadim Iosub.

— There is no reason for a noticeable increase in the welfare of Belarusians. And if external conditions are less favorable, then a fall in the economy is completely possible, - a senior analyst at Alpari believes.

Head of the Mises Research Center Yaroslav Romanchuk notes that the nominal wage in the country, albeit , but not due to the growth of labor productivity. Therefore, in real terms, wages will not increase significantly.

“Unfortunately, there are no factors that increase labor productivity in Belarus. The country needs new capital, investments, but without changing the legislation this is difficult to achieve. I don’t see anything fundamentally new appearing next year that would allow us to talk about a healthy growth in the income of the population,” notes Yaroslav Romanchuk.

What will happen to inflation?

The National Bank conducted a survey of Belarusian enterprises, according to which they expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months. The head of the Mises Research Center says these expectations are "well justified."

— There is a stimulation of domestic demand due to the growth of wages, which leads to an imbalance in the money supply and commodity. And if the National Bank begins to more actively support corporate projects, and the Ministry of Finance finances state programs, then inflation cannot be avoided,” Yaroslav Romanchuk believes.

For 2018, the government has planned inflation of 7%. Will the economy be able to keep up with this indicator?

— The problem with our economic model is that it is affected by many non-economic, political factors. If the National Bank is allowed to pursue the economic policy that it has outlined, then inflation will be less than 7%. Otherwise, it can be more than 10%, the economist answers.

Vadim Iosub believes that if after December administrative methods are stopped to increase the average salary and after receiving a beautiful picture, this policy will be abandoned, then after a slight jump in prices, then “everything will fall on the same trajectory.”

- The return of double-digit inflation, not to mention 20-30-40%, today looks extremely unlikely. It seems to me that one should not be afraid of such a development of events, - says a senior analyst at Alpari.

How will the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble change?

Vadim Iosub makes a forecast with great care.

- Obviously, the Belarusian ruble will decline against a basket of currencies - in proportion to inflation or a little faster. But it is also important to take into account the impact on the exchange rates of certain foreign currencies of external factors that have nothing to do with the Belarusian economy,” the source says.

For demonstration, he suggests paying attention to two figures: since the beginning of the year, the dollar has grown by 4% against the Belarusian ruble, and the euro by 17%. That is a significant difference. And how it will continue to change is the question.

But if we make the above two assumptions (an increase in the basket of currencies following inflation by 7% and maintaining the current ratio between foreign exchange rates), then by the end of next year we can expect the dollar to rise in price to 2.20 Belarusian rubles.

Russian experts predict a calm year for the Russian ruble, although they do not rule out a collapse of its exchange rate in the event of force majeure, such as a drop in oil prices or a serious deterioration in relations between the Russian Federation and the United States.

In 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation began to regulate the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, starting to buy up excess income from energy exports. Moreover, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the end of December that the new budget rule, as a result of which the purchase of foreign currency in 2018 will be optimized, will ensure the stability of the ruble against possible fluctuations in oil prices or changes in the flow of capital into the country.

Most Russian experts do not argue with this opinion, although many do not predict stability, but a slight weakening of the ruble. For example, Sberbank CIB analysts believe that at the end of 2018 the dollar will rise to a level above 60 RUB/USD. This, they believe, will result from the continued reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia and the corresponding decrease in the attractiveness of ruble bonds of the Ministry of Finance for foreign investors. Analysts at the British Lloyds Bank believe that the dollar will rise to 61 RUB/USD, guided by the same considerations.

At the same time, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the ruble are possible during the year. Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of Nordea Bank Igor Kogan believes that in the event of new US sanctions against Russia, the dollar exchange rate may jump to 63 RUB/USD, by the middle of the year it will return to 59-60 RUB/USD, and at the end of 2018 it will rise again to 60- 61 RUB/USD. There are also more pessimistic forecasts, in particular, experts from Uralsib Bank believe that after the introduction of new US sanctions, the dollar exchange rate may rise to 70 RUB/USD. Probably the most pessimistic point of view on the ruble is shared by VTB 25 analyst Alexei Mikheev, who expects the dollar to strengthen against the euro in the forex market, which should lead to a significant increase in the dollar against the ruble.

RSPP President Alexander Shokhin believes that during the year the dollar exchange rate may vary from 57 to 62 RUB/USD, and by the end of the year it may reach 62 RUB/USD. The strengthening of the ruble, in his opinion, will be associated with the dynamics of oil prices.

Leonid Grigoriev, Head of the Department of World Economy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, relies on the IMF forecast, according to which the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year may rise to 63-64 RUB / USD, and will depend on oil. If oil costs 55 USD per barrel, then the dollar exchange rate will be 64 RUB/USD, and if 60 USD, then 55 RUB/USD.

It can be noted that this forecast does not take into account the actions of the Ministry of Finance, which is going to change the amount of currency purchases depending on oil prices in order to exclude such fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. Perhaps the IMF experts, while giving their forecast, did not yet know about the plans of the Ministry of Finance for 2018.

Be that as it may with the IMF, practically no one expects serious shocks in the Russian currency market in 2018.

Theoretically, the ruble may experience problems in the event of the global financial crisis, but most experts do not expect it in 2018 either (see below).

Record low inflation - 4.6%. At the same time, the government almost managed to reach an average salary of 1,000 rubles. What will be the earnings of Belarusians in 2018? By how much will prices rise? And what exchange rate should Belarusians prepare for? Alpari Senior Analyst Vadim Iosub summed up the financial results for January and gave a forecast for the main indicators for the current year.

What will the dollar exchange rate be like?

In January, the dollar rose by 0.57% against the Belarusian ruble, the euro rose by 4.08%, the Russian ruble added 2.84%. The currency basket increased by 2.4% over the month. At first glance, it may seem that this is quite a bit, especially compared to the “shock” periods, when the growth was up to 50% within a month, the expert says. But there is an important point to be taken into account here. Vadim Iosub:

« The National Bank has set a goal for inflation to not exceed 6% this year. It is normal if the currency devalues ​​approximately in proportion to inflation, if it depreciates much faster, then this indicates some imbalance in the market. The fall of the Belarusian ruble by half a percent per month would be normal and natural».

As for the forecast for the year, by December the expert expects the dollar to rise to 2 rubles 10 kopecks, the euro - up to 2.60, and the Russian currency - 3.75 per 100 rubles. But this is subject to maintaining cross-rates at current levels. That is, if the euro against the dollar, for example, becomes cheaper, this will also affect their rates against the Belarusian ruble.

Inflation and average salaries: administrative resource decides a lot

According to Vadim Iosub, inflation by the end of the year will be slightly higher than the bar set by the National Bank - at the level of about 7%. The components for which prices are set administratively will have a decisive influence: public transport, housing and communal services tariffs, the expert says. Closely related to this is the level of average wages in the country.

« It is necessary to predict not what will happen to the country's economy, but whether the authorities will take any action to further increase wages, - says Vadim Iosub. - If the government completely abandons administrative measures, the economy has little chance of reaching the declared level of 1,000 rubles by the end of the year. Income growth will be proportional to GDP growth, which, according to my forecasts, will be about 2%, and not the 3.5% announced by the state. But even if we take into account the most optimal forecast, throw in 6-7% of inflation here, we will get an increase in income by about 10%.

The sharp increase in the average salary in December was due to quarterly and annual bonuses, as well as other accounting tricks, Vadim Iosub is convinced. According to his forecast, in January the average salary will roll back to the level of about 830 rubles.

Keeping money in Belarusian rubles is still the most profitable

Vadim Iosub advises to diversify your savings. About half can be kept in Belarusian rubles. And the best option, in his opinion, is a deposit.

It makes no sense to keep cash under the pillow, given the rates in rubles, which have already risen to 13%. The currency part can be divided between the dollar and the euro, says Vadim Iosub.

But the expert does not recommend investing in the Russian ruble. On the one hand, there is good potential due to rising oil prices. But it is worth considering the unpredictable political and sanctions risks.

Cryptocurrencies: a bubble that is slowly starting to deflate

The question of cryptocurrencies brings a smile to the face of Vadim Iosub. He suggests immediately considering that this is a typical "bubble". In his opinion, such a conclusion can be drawn from the change in prices and their dynamics of the most popular cryptocurrency - bitcoin. And do not confuse the concepts of "bubble" and "pyramid", says the expert. "Pyramid" is always a crime, a deception of gullible people. A “bubble” is a phenomenon that is characterized by a sharp rise in prices, and then often by an equally sharp drop. This is how people behave in the market. The “bubble” may be in the prices of oil, even tulips. And this does not characterize the product itself. And the situation with bitcoin quite claims to be included in economics textbooks - as a typical example of a "bubble", says Vadim Iosub.

Experts see no prerequisites for a serious devaluation of the Belarusian ruble.

In 2018, there will be significant changes in the country's foreign exchange market, but the authorities do not predict a significant adjustment in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. In the budget for 2018, the Ministry of Finance laid the average annual rate of 2.0379 rubles per dollar. And what will the exchange rate of the national currency actually be in the coming year?

The foreign exchange market smelled of liberalization

Significant changes in the foreign exchange market of Belarus are planned for this year. The Main Directions of Monetary Policy, which the president signed a few hours before the New Year, say that in 2018 "the actions of the National Bank will be aimed at abolishing the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings and the targeted purchase of foreign currency in the domestic foreign exchange market."

This week, the National Bank has already published a decision to cancel the targeted purchase of foreign currency. Recall that for more than two decades, residents of Belarus (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) had to use foreign currency purchased on the domestic market only for the purpose for which it was purchased within seven working days.

Moreover, the list of purposes for which foreign currency can be bought was limited in Belarus. In particular, enterprises were allowed to buy foreign currency to fulfill obligations to non-residents, but it was not allowed to purchase foreign currency to place it on deposit.

Also in Belarus for the last decades another anachronism has been preserved - the mandatory sale of part of the foreign exchange earnings.

The use of these administrative tools for regulating the foreign exchange market for many years was due to the fact that Belarus had high devaluation expectations until 2015, and the refusal to purchase targeted foreign currency could significantly increase the demand for it, and the abolition of the mandatory sale could reduce its supply.

The influence of both these factors could weaken the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, so for decades the authorities held on to administrative mechanisms for regulating the foreign exchange market.

Creditors of Belarus insist on their cancellation. By the way, in the same Russia there is neither a mandatory sale nor a targeted purchase of foreign currency.

The readiness of the National Bank to abandon the mandatory sale and targeted purchase of foreign currency in 2018 suggests that now there is no need for these “crutches” to maintain the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble.

“The targeted purchase of currency and its mandatory sale are the remnants of the old monetary policy that was carried out until 2014, when the ruble exchange rate was determined in an administrative way. Now we have a market-based exchange rate regime, so in these conditions there is no need to maintain the mandatory sale of currency or control over its purchase,”- Valery Polkhovsky, Senior Analyst of the forex broker Forex Club, said in a comment to BelaPAN.

The National Bank emphasizes that currency liberalization will benefit businesses.

“The abolition of restrictions on the targeted purchase of foreign currency ... will ensure greater freedom of entrepreneurial activity and will reduce the administrative costs of business entities associated with the need to apply to the National Bank for obtaining permits for the purchase of foreign currency for purposes not provided for by law, extending storage periods and changing intended use of the purchased foreign currency, the regulator said in a statement released this week.

Devaluation can not be afraid?

Under the current conditions, as financial analysts predict, the ongoing liberalization of the foreign exchange market will not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

“The liberalization of the foreign exchange market will not affect the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, since the situation today is fundamentally different than in 2014, when high devaluation expectations were observed in the country,”- says Valery Polkhovsky.

At the same time, he notes that the abolition of the targeted purchase and mandatory sale of foreign currency is evidence of the authorities' readiness to pursue a responsible monetary policy.

“The possibility of using money emission to stimulate the economy will be almost completely excluded,”- believes Valery Polkhovsky.

Given the increased world oil prices, the expert predicts, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble in 2018 may be relatively stable.

“Against the background of relatively high oil prices, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble may stabilize around 55-60 rubles per dollar, so there should not be big fluctuations in the foreign exchange market of Belarus in 2018 either. By the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate may be approximately the same as it is now,”- says Valery Polkhovsky.

A similar opinion is shared by Belarusian bankers, who do not expect big shocks with the ruble exchange rate this year. In private conversations, bank officials note that their forecasts for this year do not imply a significant adjustment in the exchange rate.

Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at the Alpari forex broker, also believes that nothing foreshadows a big devaluation yet.

“In recent years, the depreciation of the Belarusian ruble against a basket of foreign currencies has been comparable to changes in consumer prices. It is likely that this correlation will continue this year. There are no prerequisites for the devaluation of the ruble by tens of percent,”- says Vadim Iosub.

In his opinion, if the cross-rates of foreign currencies do not change significantly this year, then by the end of 2018 the rates will be approximately as follows: 2.15-2.20 rubles per dollar, 2.55-2.60 rubles per euro and 3.70-3.75 Belarusian rubles for 100 Russian rubles.

“At the same time, changes in cross-rates of foreign currencies on the world market can significantly affect the actual results that we will receive by the end of the year,” warns Vadim Iosub.

The expert draws attention to the fact that in 2017 the dollar exchange rate in Belarus remained practically unchanged, while the euro rose in price by more than 15%.

“Most likely, external factors will continue to have a decisive influence on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies in 2018,”- summed up the financial analyst.