A government without Medvedev and a new successor. What election stories are being offered to us? Medvedev “has served his purpose”: Putin will need a new prime minister in his “fourth term” government

The current Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev will not be able to lead a “fourth term” government Vladimir Putin due to the high anti-rating, the leader of the state will not risk the support of the popular majority. This opinion in an interview RIA "New Day" said the director of the Institute of Contemporary Economics, leader of the socio-political movement “ New Russia» Nikita Isaev.

In his opinion, the composition of the new cabinet of ministers will partly depend on the election results of the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Pavel Grudinina.

“The formation of the (new) cabinet of ministers will, first of all, be determined by the figure of the future chairman of the government. The formation of the current government, I mean the bloc that is not directly related to the president - security forces, international relations and so on - took place within the framework of the personnel decision of the chairman of the government. If Medvedev stays, then I think there will be no serious changes,” Isaev said.

From his point of view, if Medvedev again heads the government, “spot changes” are possible as a result of “battles between the Kremlin towers.”

“We see fierce battles in medicine, where Golikova actively wants to return (Tatiana Golikova- Chairman of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation) with his influence. We see attacks on Roscosmos through the Rogozin group ( Dmitry Rogozin- Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation). The Ministry of Industry and Trade is also here. We see attacks on education. Point changes are possible,” says Isaev.

However, in his opinion, there are now serious reasons to believe that after the elections Medvedev will still leave his post. “He has too low a level of trust among the population. And for Putin in the new cycle, this will be, in my opinion, important. The Crimean consensus has in a certain way been exhausted, the situation on the international agenda is not so clear as to convey it to society as a victory. The loyalty of society for Putin will have important“, Isaev emphasized.

According to him, Medvedev has largely “taken upon himself the high anti-rating” due to the “economic failures” of the last six years.

“With this anti-rating, it will be difficult for him to remain in this position. But I think that in political system he will remain and perhaps aspire to be Putin's successor. I don’t think that this will be called a tandem, but it is obvious that he will be one of the potential successors and main actors in the transit of power,” Isaev noted.

In his opinion, the new government will be headed by “a fresh figure with a lower anti-rating.”

“In this regard, I think that the government will still undergo certain changes. There will be fewer Medvedev henchmen, I mean people like Dvorkovich ( Arkady Dvorkovich- Deputy Prime Minister), ridiculous Abyzov ( Mikhail Abyzov- Minister of the Russian Federation) with ridiculous functionality about an open government, which is still unclear what it does,” he said.

Among other candidates “for departure” from the government, the political scientist named the Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, which oversees social sphere, Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky and the Minister of Construction and Housing and Communal Services Mikhail Me.

“Medinsky served this term too odiously. Minister of Construction Men, most likely, will also finish his work and return somewhere to a regional position - governor or plenipotentiary representative of the president,” said Isaev.

“Those who worked with Putin will remain, because we believe that Putin will become president. I think it could be Siluanov ( Anton Siluanov- Minister of Finance), Oreshkin ( Maxim Oreshkin– minister economic development), although I believe that his appointment was erroneous. I do not rule out that Shuvalov ( Igor Shuvalov– First Deputy Prime Minister) may remain, unfortunately. Kudrin's return is possible ( Alexey Kudrin– ex-Minister of Finance) in a certain way,” Isaev suggested.

In addition, he drew attention to the fact that the formation of the government will most likely be influenced by Grudinin’s result in the presidential elections.

“The level of protest sentiment will matter here. From this it will be possible to understand that some positions will be transferred to the opposition component, for example, the ministry Agriculture. I am sure that Tkacheva ( Alexander Tkachev– Minister of Agriculture) will not be in the new government,” Isaev said.

He believes that the personnel " power block government" may remain a mystery until the last moment. “This is too closed a behind-the-scenes system, here the decision-making vectors are different than those lying on the surface,” Isaev emphasized.

Moscow, Maria Vyatkina

Moscow. Other news 02/09/18

© 2018, RIA “New Day”

The number of political assets with a minus sign is growing at an unplanned pace.

Let's start, however, with the first one. Has Medvedev really become a burden for the regime?

There is no doubt about it. The Levada Center poll that worried him (45% of respondents were in favor of resignation, 33% were against) in all major parameters, including the breakdown of answers to other questions, is very close to the information from the weekly reports of the near-Kremlin FOM. All “Medvedev’s” indicators are worsening there with each new measurement, and the share of those who believe that the prime minister is “working poorly in his post” since mid-April has exceeded the number of those who believe that he is “good.”

Medvedev has never been perceived by our public as an independent figure. He shone with reflected light, and fluctuations in his popularity indices always followed fluctuations in those of Putin. Perhaps this is still the case. Putin's indices are also declining. But they still remain in the positive zone, while Medvedev’s have moved into the negative.

The prime minister’s reaction to the video “He’s not your Dimon” confirmed his lack of any political qualifications or simply the ability to take a punch. Until recently, the universal helplessness of the head of government created an atmosphere of comfort for Putin, but today it is desirable that people in his circle show other qualities to the people. There is not the slightest hope that Medvedev will find them. He became a clear political burden, which, when strong desire You can, of course, carry it further, but it would be more logical to throw it off your shoulders.

However, the logic of the highest decisions cannot be so straightforward.

Who will replace Medvedev? Another figurehead? But premieres of the caliber of Mikhail Fradkov looked like something normal in completely different times. The reaction from below, and not only from below, to someone strange and weak is now completely unpredictable, and instead of releasing it, it can also increase tension.

And the elevation to prime minister of a person perceived as a strong figure is too similar to the appointment of an heir. So, at least, it will be understood and even, perhaps, interpreted as the most important strategic decision Putin over the past ten years. Also risky and does not increase comfort.

You can, of course, choose golden mean, and install as first minister some technocrat programmed for so-called unpopular measures, in order to then please the people with his shameful expulsion. But events can easily spin out of control. The system is rusty and can crumble from any shock.

The fate of the so-called Medvedev government is no less important. “So-called” because this is not one structure, but several departmental alliances, and they are not led by Medvedev at all, but partly by Putin, and partly they act autonomously - both according to their own understanding and in the interests of competing lobbying teams.

But while the prime minister is merely a symbol of government, his political disappearance would call into question all these intertwined ambitions, established governance practices and hard-won balances.

Does Putin, for example, want him to fall? economic bloc"(The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and related departments, which, albeit with difficulty, work in conjunction with the Central Bank, which is nominally not part of the government)? After all, he is ideologically close to them, albeit not on all points. Connoisseurs economic history It’s not for nothing that Putin is recognized as a spontaneous adherent of mercantilism. There was such a doctrine in past centuries, which prescribed the accumulation of monetary reserves in the treasury, preventing the import of goods, relying on state business and not allowing large excess of expenses over income.

The “economic bloc”’s ideas about what it would be desirable to do are somewhat more sophisticated, but in reality it is pursuing exactly this course. Which the leader likes, but is not particularly popular in court circles, where many magnates feel deprived, and at the same time irritates the people more and more, since the burden of the austerity regime has shifted to him.

They say that United Russia will praise Putin at the May Day events, expressively keeping silent about both Medvedev and the government, and the state-owned trade unions working with it will begin to defame the “economic bloc.” The suspended state of the Prime Minister, already without any signal from above, is being exploited with might and main by fighters for tasty places in executive power.

Promoting this insignificant person in ancient times, Vladimir Putin, of course, did not imagine that the system would spontaneously turn him into its most important unit, the replacement of which promised so many problems, and, moreover, at the most inopportune time.

Sergey Shelin

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev may resign as early as May. This is stated in the published report of the Minchenko Consulting group of experts, dedicated to the agenda of Vladimir Putin’s presidential campaign.

Experts note three dates when Medvedev’s resignation from the post of prime minister is most likely, but May 2017, in their opinion, is the most the best option. If this happens, the government will be headed by Alexei Kudrin.

The second opportunity will appear in August-September - before the start of the new financial year and the formation of a new budget. Putin’s last opportunity to change the prime minister will be in January 2018, the first month of the official presidential campaign. In addition to Kudrin, experts name Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin as candidates for prime minister.

The report notes that if the resignation does not occur within the specified time frame, then Medvedev will retain the post of prime minister. Analysts emphasize that since 2004, the president has consistently dismissed the government on the eve of elections.

The question of Medvedev’s resignation directly depends on the image in which Vladimir Putin plans to appear before Russian voters, experts add. They indicate the two most optimal ones. For the image of the Ruler-Sage, the best opponent in the elections is the leader of the LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the image of the Fighter-Rebel. For election campaign under the slogan of the Ruler-Teacher, young politicians who grew up in the Putin era will be chosen as opponents.

IN election campaign Putin’s experts see risks; they counted nine of them. This includes the age of the president, who will be 65 years old at the time of the elections, the deterioration of the economic and social situation in the country, the escalation of conflicts in Putin’s inner circle, the growing influence of the Internet on public opinion and the lack of interest among the electorate of the current president (why vote if Putin will win anyway?).

Recently, rumors about the impending resignation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev have intensified. Last week, Vladimir Putin said that “Dmitry Anatolyevich was not saved” and he was sick with the flu. This is how the president explained Medvedev’s absence at the government meeting on March 14. Later, the Prime Minister missed a meeting of the Russian Security Council. On the sidelines there were suggestions that Medvedev did not get sick, but was temporarily “removed” after the scandalous investigative film “He’s Not Dimon” by Alexei Navalny.

Last Thursday, March 23, Medvedev, at a meeting with representatives of small and medium-sized businesses in the field of road transportation, in response to congratulations on his recovery, said that he was not ill. “Yes, I wasn’t sick,” the prime minister replied, which made him start talking again about the existing confrontation between Putin and Medvedev.

On February 2, the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) of Alexei Navalny published an investigation into the real estate of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The publication claims that the head of the Russian government owns plots of land in elite areas, manages yachts, apartments in old mansions, agricultural complexes and wineries in Russia and abroad.

This coming Sunday, March 26, protests will be held in cities across the country under the slogan “He is not Dimon to us,” demanding an official investigation into the facts discovered and calling on Medvedev to resign.

There is an opinion that the resignation of the government after the elections is a purely procedural phenomenon. Often Russians don't even notice him.

According to the law, the newly elected president submits the candidacy of the chairman of the government to the State Duma within 2 weeks after taking office. After approval, the Prime Minister, within a week, submits proposals to the head of state on the structure of federal executive bodies, and also proposes candidates for the positions of Deputy Prime Minister and federal ministers.

Political scientists believe that such a legislative loophole would be useful for Vladimir Putin’s new term if he becomes president again in the elections in March. Therefore, changes in the government, in their opinion, are inevitable. However, their scale is still difficult to assess.

By the way, sociologists also talk about this, who have long recorded negativity in society towards the government, in particular towards the prime minister.

“Society needs changes. Whole line studies show that all the negativity that exists among Russian residents regarding the situation within the country and in domestic policy, is often associated specifically with the figure of the prime minister. So from this point of view, the resignation of the government and the prime minister will make some sense,” said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.

The main task of such changes is to combat stagnation, including the rotation of Putin’s “friends” under his patronage - the so-called “Politburo 2.0”, inter-clan struggle in which can lead to a serious crisis in the country.

“The results of this inter-clan struggle cannot be predicted, since they depend not only on the objective balance of power, but also on the personal attitude towards certain characters of Putin himself. On the other hand, he is interested in both maintaining balance and expanding Politburo 2.0. This will dictate possible changes in the government,” the political scientist noted. Sergey Komaritsyn.

Changes can be dictated by the course taken towards rejuvenation. However, experts are sure that no new “bright” politicians should be expected. Most likely, these will be the same technocrats who unquestioningly carry out the orders of the president and easily fit into the vertical of power.

« General course personnel policy in the new government, most likely, it will be the same - “young technocrats” will appear. At the same time, everyone does not understand very well who these “technocrats” are? There are some meanings that are very beneficial from the point of view of propaganda - focus on tasks, technological effectiveness, lack of clan connections. But precise definition there was no word from the authorities,” said the political scientist Victor Poturemsky.

For Russians themselves, a change of government can have a positive function and hope that the head of state will take a course that is not foreign policy, but on the internal, says sociologist Alexey Novikov.

As for Dmitry Medvedev specifically as Prime Minister, experts are confident that no scandals surrounding his personality will be able to influence Putin’s decision. The president will be guided by personal favor even to the detriment of the common cause, political scientists are sure.

“Medvedev is a very weak prime minister. But here the question is about obligations, general biography and personal relationships. If Medvedev really wants to remain as prime minister, Putin will leave him, despite the fact that this is harmful to the cause. Putin is not very interested in demonstration - in the sense of early retirement before the elections; it doesn't add anything special to him. But it may cause slight psychological trauma to Medvedev. Putin will not offend Medvedev,” the political scientist said Sergey Komaritsyn.

We cannot exclude the fact that, in essence, the Prime Minister is a convenient “whipping boy” on whom all the people’s negativity is poured. And Dmitry Medvedev, experts are sure, copes with this role very well. In this regard, it would be irrational to reform the government and subordinate it directly to the president, although there has been a lot of talk about this scenario lately.

“If the question is whether he can do it technically, then yes, he probably can. If the question is whether it’s worth doing, then probably not. Because in this case, all responsibility for what is happening in the country will be transferred to him and, accordingly, all the negativity of voters, which now concerns the person of Medvedev, will be transferred to the head of state,” the sociologist emphasized Alexey Novikov.

“Medvedev is extremely convenient as a lightning rod through which protest against federal authorities. The model is established. External reasons there is no way to change it yet. I think it will continue after the elections. There are scenarios that could affect his departure based on the results of the March elections, but so far these scenarios are unlikely,” the political scientist noted Victor Poturemsky.

One of these possible scenarios is the merger of the Supreme and Constitutional Courts in the media. If the reform happens, it is likely that the “super court” will be headed by Medvedev. However, experts are confident that little will change for him in this case.

“The problem of status for Medvedev has only psychological significance. His real position under Putin will remain the same as it is now, regardless of his position,” the political scientist noted Sergey Komaritsyn.

Little will change in the post of Prime Minister. According to experts, another prime minister will not be much different from the previous one.

Thus, it is unlikely that a woman will become prime minister, despite the fact that the Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko and the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina are increasingly appearing in the federal media in connection with this topic.

One should also not expect that a person with a strong political background will come to the Russian government. According to Krasnoyarsk political scientists, this can happen only in one case.

“For 18 years we had “technical” premieres (during the “tandem” period there was a “technical” president). Why should this change? When Putin starts thinking about a successor, then a person with different characteristics will appear,” the political scientist argues. Sergey Komaritsyn.

If in force various reasons If we are still talking about replacing Medvedev, then his position could well be taken by a politician from Krasnoyarsk.

“Of the current government, the most prepared for such a role is our fellow countryman Alexander Novak. He has all the prerequisites for this - biography, work at the level large corporation, region, federal ministries, experience, knowledge, abilities, international fame, the scale of current tasks, proximity and - which is very important - in his current capacity he is Putin’s unconditional nominee,” the political scientist suggested Sergey Komaritsyn.

Changes may also occur in the ruling United Russia party. It is already known that it will be rebranded. It is possible that management may also change. The need for these changes was loudly announced by Putin’s self-nomination in the elections.

“If we understand this statement in terms of public political communication, then it means, in essence, simple thing: “United Russia” does not provide the current president with significant advantage at the elections. Actually, everything that follows after this is rebranding. You can try to follow the logic further - this, in turn, may mean that the party, under the existing leadership, is not solving the tasks assigned to it,” said the sociologist Alexey Novikov.

However, according to experts, not only United Russia, but also the entire party system of the country needs such a rebranding.

“What is happening now in the presidential elections shows the deep crisis in which literally everyone finds themselves political parties. We built and built the party system, developed it in order to obtain a shortage of party candidates, replacements, non-participation in the main elections of the country. Plus Putin's self-nomination. The need for reforms of the party system and rebranding of parties is overripe and inevitable,” the political scientist said Victor Poturemsky.

It is obvious that we cannot expect a “reset” of power after the elections: rather, there will be re-elections. But it is also obvious, experts say, that first of all the old new president will have to figure out what internal political problems the government will solve and with what help. However, we can already safely say that after the elections, the dynamics of political and economic events in the country will increase significantly.

Photo: Aleksander Khitrov, Dmitry Medvedev, Reuters, Dmitry Koshcheev, Kremlin

Several media outlets immediately wrote that Vladimir Putin could change the government even before presidential elections. The media are even compiling lists of candidates who could replace Medvedev as prime minister. Gazeta.ru published a large material on this topic last week, after which the topic was picked up by the Dozhd TV channel. The rumors are also fueled by the resignation last week of Oleg Plokhoy from the post of head of the Kremlin’s anti-corruption department. It is expected that Andrei Chobotov, appointed in his place, may initiate an anti-corruption purge of Medvedev’s cabinet. Putin's criticism of Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich and disciplinary action Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov, due to the situation around VIM-AVIA, increased the feeling of political turbulence around the government.

At the same time, forecasts about Medvedev’s impending resignation appeared almost from the first day of his appointment to the post in 2012. And every time they ended in nothing. Experts highlight several reasons why Dmitry Medvedev will remain in office for a long time.

1. Loyalty

And the first reason is the trust of the president. Center Director political studies financial university Pavel Salino classifies Medvedev as “unsinkable.” "On top level There are very few people left whom the president trusts. Among them are Dmitry Medvedev and the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov,” says Salin. The director of the analytical company Minchenko Consulting, Evgeny Minchenko, believes that in the most likely scenario, Medvedev will remain prime minister during Vladimir Putin’s fourth term. “Medvedev ceded the presidency to Putin in 2011, thereby proving his loyalty in a way that no one else could prove,” says the political scientist.

2. Weakness

The second reason for Medvedev’s long “survivability” is his “weakness”. “Medvedev has masterfully mastered the aikido-style stratagem of “weaken yourself in order to survive,” says Yevgeny Minchenko in the report “Politburo 2.0.” The general director of the agency for political and economic communications, Dmitry Orlov, is confident that the massive media attacks on Medvedev that took place in the near future also played a role: the president does not like to make decisions under pressure from certain groups.

3. Stability

The third reason is that Medvedev demonstrates stability and continuity of course. Criticism and even replacement of individual ministers will occur constantly, but this will not affect Medvedev. Director of the Institute of Applied Political Research Grigory Dobromelov believes that criticism of Sokolov and Dvorkovich is of a ritual nature. Higher officials traditionally receive a scolding from the president in the event of one or another crisis situation- this is how Vladimir Putin shows that he has everything under control. However, in such cases the prime minister is always taken out of harm's way. “No matter how the composition of the cabinet changes, Medvedev himself remains a symbol and the real embodiment of the stability of the course. In addition, he has extensive political experience, relying on " United Russia“, guaranteeing a majority for the implementation of government policies in parliament,” Orlov believes.

However, there are those who believe that political career Medvedev will end in March 2018. Thus, Dobromelov is confident that after the presidential elections, large-scale government reform will begin, in which Medvedev will have no place. “The system by which the government works was created in the first half of the 2000s. Behind last years she turned into patchwork quilt. Several deputy prime ministers may be responsible for the same area at once. Thus, tourism is simultaneously under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Culture, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets and Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Mutko. And there are many such examples. In addition, in recent years, a project approach has been actively introduced, which does not fit in with the current system,” says Dobromelov. Dmitry Medvedev, as the person who led the cabinet for so many years, simply cannot be the locomotive of change. In addition, Alexei Kudrin’s group, which is developing the upcoming changes, has long been in conflict with Dmitry Medvedev. At the same time, the political scientist is confident that Medvedev will not be left without work in any case - he will be given a position in a corporation or the judicial system.

Stanislav Zakharkin