What are the main forecasts for the future development of humanity. What awaits us in the 21st century? Futurological forecast by Ray Kurzweil. year: Africa and Asia will turn into a giant dump
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Scientists are still arguing about how long ago Homo sapiens appeared on Earth ( Homo sapiens). The following is known for sure: about 40 thousand years ago, our distant ancestors already lived on all continents. Despite the huge cultural difference, in a physiological and anatomical sense they were very similar to modern people. Scientists believe that Homo sapiens continues to evolve today. At the same time, his body is influenced not only by natural factors (especially those that cause genetic mutations), but also by sociocultural parameters.
Let's talk about what changes in humans in the coming millennia researchers consider the most likely.
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Increase in height
According to anthropologists, growth primitive man did not exceed 160 cm. Now such people are considered short. The average height of a Russian these days is 175-178 cm, and even among the fair sex, heights above 170 cm are quite common. However, this parameter strongly depends on both ethnic characteristics and individual heredity. In addition, scientists have noticed that in developed countries, where high-calorie foods are available to everyone, average height representatives of each next generation increases, while in regions where there is still a shortage of food, this does not happen. Considering that the international community is making serious efforts to combat hunger, it can be assumed that people will gradually grow up in the future.
Darkening of hair and eyes
Scientific and technological progress has made people mobile. Now people move freely around the world, change their places of residence and assimilate. This is how the transfer and infusion of new things occur genetic material into ethnic groups that until recently lived separately and retained a specific appearance. In cases where the specificity is due to recessive genes, it disappears. Already today there is a decrease in the number of people from blond hair and eyes. Scientists believe that this process will continue, and in the future blue-eyed blondes will become a real rarity.
Increasing number of obese people
The reason for the increase in the number of overweight people is not so much the availability of high-calorie foods, but a shift in the eating habits of many residents of developed countries towards fast food. This food is convenient and doesn't require cooking. In addition, manufacturers introduce additives into its composition that cause addiction and refusal of regular homemade food. The sad results of the fast food craze have been noticeable for a long time. According to statistics, over the past 20 years the number of Europeans suffering from obesity has doubled. Unfortunately, without a conscious transition to a healthy diet, this process will continue.
Changes in teeth and jawbones
The main factor behind changes in appearance is a change in a person’s diet. The share of foods consumed in unprocessed form is steadily decreasing. Food manufacturers, trying to make it as attractive as possible, often take the route of eliminating solid components. Consumption of food that practically does not require grinding leads to the fact that the human chewing apparatus does not experience the loads programmed by nature and gradually becomes unnecessary. In practice, this leads to weakening jaw bones, masticatory muscles and dental tissues. Many people today are born without wisdom teeth. According to scientists, there is a possibility that a person’s teeth will become smaller over time, and the weakening of the jaw apparatus will lead to changes in the skull, which will greatly affect the appearance of our distant descendants.
Reduction in muscle volume
The daily activities of a modern person, as a rule, do not require significant muscular effort, and not everyone wants to play sports. Thus, the strength of muscles and skeletal bones becomes a redundant trait from an evolutionary point of view. There are hypotheses that present the person of the future as a physically weak creature with a huge brain, but not even able to move independently. Most likely, this is an exaggeration, but the fact that we are physically much weaker than our primitive ancestors can be considered an established fact.
Weakened immune system
The progress of medicine has helped humanity get rid of many deadly diseases and contributed to an increase in life expectancy. Unfortunately, many scientific discoveries also had negative consequences. In particular, the widespread use of antibiotics has caused a weakening of natural human immunity. Our the immune system already accustomed to the fact that her functions are taken over by medications, facilities household chemicals and perfumery and cosmetic products. A number of scientists believe that in the future, human defenses will weaken, making him more and more dependent on the achievements of civilization.
Blurring gender differences
Some researchers talk about the development of a post-gender society in the future. This is what they call a community of people whose gender differences are largely erased. Individual elements Similar changes can already be observed today. Many residents of developed countries exhibit traits and habits that are unusual for their gender (overly feminine men and overly masculine women appear). The number of same-sex families is growing, as is the number of people seeking to use reproductive technologies that do not require the participation of a permanent partner of the opposite sex. It is hardly worth counting on the fact that over time natural reproduction will completely disappear, but the tendency to erase gender differences should not be completely discounted.
Rising number of people suffering from depression
According to statistics, about a third of Americans today suffer from depression. Modern man falls into almost daily stressful situations, leading to deterioration of his physical and mental health. Scientists believe that the situation will worsen over time, and consider the tendency to depression to be one of the factors that can lead humanity to the brink of extinction.
Researchers' forecasts look disappointing. It turns out that our descendants are doomed to be weak, sick, depressed and overly dependent on the achievements of civilization. In some ways this is true, but each of us can still make a difference. It is necessary to change one’s own existence: to give preference healthy eating, go in for sports, give up unnecessary use of medications, develop a positive outlook on the world. Only in this way will we set a good example for our children that will help them live correctly, interestingly and effectively. Ultimately, this can have a positive impact on the health and appearance of future generations.
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Most science fiction writers and futurologists see the future of humanity in rather gloomy colors, and not without reason. Our attitude towards the environment leaves much to be desired, we use technology too thoughtlessly and are becoming increasingly adept at self-destruction. However, there are also optimists for whom the distant future seems amazing and wonderful. Here you will find the six most optimistic forecasts for the prospects for the development of our civilization.
1. Status quo
In the 1990s, American political scientist, economist and writer Francis Fukuyama wrote the books “The End of History and last man" and "The End of Order." He argued that the political, technological and economic state of our planet indicates that humanity is approaching the final stop of its journey. He was, of course, wrong. These books turned out to be simply a dark reaction to the collapse Soviet Union and talk about the so-called New World Order.
A somewhat more realistic assessment of the current state of affairs was formulated by the co-founder of the American software and hardware manufacturer Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy. In a 2004 article, “Why the Future Doesn't Need Us,” he wrote about the catastrophic consequences that could result from the development of 21st century technologies such as robotics, genetic engineering and nanotechnology. Joy believes that the smartest thing humanity can do today is to use what it already has. This is the only way it can prolong its existence on the planet.
2. Green planet
We often see the distant future as a kind of “Cybertron”, clad in steel from edge to edge. This is the worst nightmare of the “greens”, where technology and thoughtless use of natural resources have crushed all living things. But who said that everything should be exactly like this? The future of our planet may well be much more prosperous than we can imagine. Representatives of "green" futurism believe that we can use high tech in order to cleanse the Earth, create new sources of energy and even transform the planet itself.
The very first idea in this series was introduced by Bruce Sterling's " Green design" This movement advocates the use innovative technologies to solve problems environment. Sterling predicts that the future of the planet will be far more ecologically diverse than at any other point in history.
In such a future, a person himself will change a lot - in order to live in complete harmony with the world around him. It will receive all our energy from the sources of the Earth and the Sun itself. Having thoroughly studied the earth's ecosystems, humanity will change them too - for example, putting an end to all predation and animal suffering. And he will control the weather at his own discretion.
And, in the end, we will learn to prevent all sorts of natural disasters: asteroid impacts, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions…
3. Living surrounded by “machines of grace and love”
Unfortunately, it is likely that the age of technological euphoria will soon end. In thirty years, radically improved machines with their own intelligence may escape our control, and then we will definitely be in trouble. But, on the other hand, the power that can destroy us can also be saving for humanity - this is what members of the Singularity movement believe.
If future inventors of artificial intelligence set themselves the right goals, Singularity believes, then the next generations will live among so-called “friendly robots”, programmed to be unable to harm humans. Moreover, machines will ensure that nothing bad happens to us and protect us from all possible dangers. A whole poem by Richard Brautigan called “Machines of Grace and Love Are Watching Everything” and a British film of the same name are dedicated to a paradise where a happy future is provided for us by artificial intelligence.
4. Where no one has been before...
It's high time to break away from our little ball and start colonizing others solar systems- some futurologists are sure. Not only our salvation depends on this (the idea that you cannot keep all your eggs in one basket), it is inherent in our very nature - to develop, move on and conquer ever new horizons.
Even now, our still timid attempts at space exploration are bringing us a lot of benefits - technologies using satellites and some breakthroughs in science.
What could this colonization be like? Perhaps it will be something like a von Neumann probe - self-replicating spaceship, which will fly to a neighboring star system, where it will mine minerals for us and create exact copies of itself, which, in turn, will go to others star systems for the same purpose.
Until now, no interstellar travelers have been seen in our Galaxy, which is why the so-called “Fermi Paradox” arose, which can be formulated as follows: “The combination of the widespread belief that there is a significant number of technologically advanced civilizations in the Universe, with the absence of which -observations that would confirm it is paradoxical and leads to the conclusion that either our understanding of nature or our observations are incomplete and erroneous.”
So, it is quite possible that we will turn out to be the first and only civilization with colonialist ambitions in the Galaxy.
5. Interior space
Another alternative idea is that an ideal and cloudless existence can be achieved by overloading your consciousness into giant supercomputers. Computers of enormous computing power - like the megastructure called the "matryoshka brain" proposed by Robert Bradbury - will use the entire energy potential of the planet to power the computer system.
Or civilization will find a way to build a so-called “Dyson Sphere,” which is a relatively thin spherical shell with a star in the center. Thus, two problems will be solved at once. global problems- living space and energy, which can be received in abundance from the central star.
6. Eternal bliss
British philosopher David Pearce, in his “Hedonic Imperative,” formulated the idea of building heaven on Earth, which consists of creating a biological program that allows you to get rid of all types of cruelty, suffering and ailments.
A person’s emotional life will have to be regulated with the help of special synthetic drugs (but not drugs) that regulate mood. And in long term the genome of all vertebrates should be rewritten so that there is no more suffering in the animal world.
No one knows what our future will actually be like. One thing is clear - there are a huge number of options for its development, more than we can even imagine today.
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American inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil became the author of many technological forecasts. He published his first predictions in the book “The Age of Thinking Machines,” published in 1990. The last time Ray voiced his vision of the future was a week ago on international congress SAE 2015 in Detroit. If you collect these dates into a single list, you will get a detailed forecast of the development of key industries until the end of the 21st century.
Raymond Kurzweil became interested in the parallel development of humans and machines while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He always found unexpected directions - from developing speech recognition systems to solving the problem of immortality. While the digitization of consciousness and its placement in computer model brain seems science fiction, but the winner of many awards and the author of the book “How to Create a Mind” is ready to name the dates of the appearance of technologies that contribute to this.
Recently, turning fantastic ideas into reality has become an immediate task for him, since he has been in office for three years now. technical director divisions for the development of machine learning and natural language processing methods at Google.
Ray's futurological announcements are interesting, if only because many of his early predictions are coming true before our eyes. We are talking about augmented and virtual reality systems, wearable electronics, smart clothing, electronic assistants (like Google, Siri and Cortana), self-driving cars and dozens of other changes in everyday life. What awaits us in the near future, if we are smart enough to live to see it?
2019
Most people will have multiple computers, although the meaning of the term itself will also change. The computing power of computers costing up to $4,000 will reach 20 quadrillion calculations per second. Microcomputers will be embedded everywhere - in clothes, jewelry, furniture and even into walls. The same applies to photo and video cameras, the lenses of which are reduced to the size of a pinhead.
People will receive virtual reality systems that form images directly on their retina. Users will communicate with their computers through a two-way speech and gesture interface, with little or no keyboard input. Cables and wired interfaces for peripheral devices will almost completely disappear.
All students will have access to computers. The main training will be structured in the form of remote adaptive courses, in which students and teachers will attend remotely.
Blind and visually impaired people will be able to wear glasses that will interpret real world using speech. Likewise, deaf people will use wearable devices that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. There will also be an artificial retina, a bionic ear and other neuroimplants, but they will exist in limited numbers.
Patients with spinal cord injuries will be able to walk again using an exoskeleton controlled via a brain-computer interface or direct commands from their own nerve endings.
Numerous haptic feedback devices will appear. For example, gloves or even entire suits that broadcast remote touches. They will be used in virtual reality systems and for more emotional communication between people over the Internet, including virtual sex.
Volumetric lattices of nanotubes will displace silicon from microelectronics. Instead of traditional algorithms, parallel ones will begin to be used en masse neural networks and genetic algorithms.
Automatic translation systems will become so efficient that they will be widely used in professional fields and everyday life.
2021
Internet access will be available from 85% of the earth's surface. It will become predominantly wireless and very cheap. Formal payment for it will be debited automatically.
Computer programs will learn to create works of art at the level of their contemporaries, or even better than them. AI-created paintings, musical compositions and sculptures will appear.
Paper books will become a rarity. The primary means for viewing text will be thin, lightweight, portable displays with very high resolution.
2022
Robots will become as common as pets. Governments in developed countries will begin to pass laws regulating the relationship between people and robots. A few years earlier this will happen with virtual characters, some people will begin to spend more time communicating with them than talking with real people.
2024
Autopilot and driver assistance systems will be widespread in cars, trucks and public transport. In a number of countries, people will be completely prohibited from driving a car without an electronic driver assistant. Between 2020 and 2025, compact personal aircraft will appear.
2025
Wearable electronics will begin to be replaced by implantable ones. We will learn to effectively fight the aging process and will constantly extend our lives with the help of nanorobots and other technologies that do not even have a name yet.
2028
Alternative energy will become one of the key technologies for the development of all others. It will be established as the dominant concept. Solar panels will become so efficient that they will be enough to cover most of the energy costs.
2029
The program will not only be able to completely pass the Turing test, but will do it better than many real interlocutors. A thousand dollar computer will be orders of magnitude superior to the average human brain in most areas.
Brain modeling will become much more accurate. The functions of hundreds of different subregions, algorithms for their development and operation will be determined. They will be decrypted and included in neural network algorithms.
2031
Many people will voluntarily become cyborgs, and due to the abundance of implants, the very term “human being” will be rethought. Organs will be manufactured by machines in any major hospital.
There will be computer implants with direct connection to the brain and individual groups of neurons. They will be able to give a person superpowers - enhance perception, improve memory, increase reaction speed and reduce learning time.
2033
Computers will learn without human intervention. Non-biological forms of intelligence will combine the subtlety of the human mind with the speed, memory and limitless knowledge sharing capabilities of machine intelligence.
Almost all cars will become self-driving. Agricultural work and transport systems will also be fully automated.
2034
The development of AI will lead to the emergence social movements for the rights of cars. Global orbital protection program will effectively prevent falling to Earth large meteorites and asteroids.
2038
Transhumanism will become one of the key directions. Neuroimplants will allow you to quickly receive career guidance and any specific knowledge. The body's own cells can be programmed to perform new functions and treat diseases.
2041
Internet traffic will increase hundreds of millions of times, and search engines will be built into everything. Requests can be sent to them even with the power of thought through BCI.
2045
The first realization of physical immortality: nanorobots help overcome apoptosis and protect the body from any negative impacts.
2049
Food is usually assembled by nanorobots from scrap materials. Such food is completely indistinguishable from “natural” food, but can be modified in any way by simply modifying the program. For example, it can become more or less caloric, change the content of amino acids, vitamins, microelements, or even initially include enzymes for its digestion. Synthetic food production technology will solve the problem of hunger and make food production independent of climatic conditions and availability of natural resources.
Difference between virtual reality and what is still commonly called the “real world” will be completely erased. This will be facilitated by both the development of augmented reality systems and the fact that almost all physical objects will be able to perform immediate self-assembly or change their properties.
2072 – 2099
Nanotechnology will give rise to picotechnology. People will learn to manipulate structures measuring one trillionth of a meter. An era of technological singularity will begin, which will spread beyond the Earth along with humanity. Our thinking no longer has advantages over artificial intelligence. People and machines have merged at all levels of existence. Many people don't have a permanent shape at all. They exist in the form of programs, their consciousness is capable of controlling several different physical bodies and create new ones. The boundaries between the material manifestations of personalities are gradually blurring, so it is impossible to accurately determine how many people live on Earth and beyond.
Thanks to the survival instinct, humanity and our civilization have existed for thousands of years. Although for several last decades Scientific communities are increasingly concerned about possible global catastrophes - events with a high risk coefficient that can not only harm the planet, but also destroy life on it.
The era of black holes is described in Professor Fred Adams' book "The Five Ages of the Universe" as an age in which organized matter will remain only in the form of black holes. Gradually they thanks quantum processes radiation activity will get rid of the matter they absorbed. By the end of the mentioned era, only low-energy protons, electrons and neutrons will remain. In other words, we can say goodbye to our beautiful blue planet.
According to many religious movements, which put forward various hypotheses, the end of the world is approaching (doomsday, the second coming of Jesus Christ, the coming of the Antichrist). Everyone agrees on one thing: the end of the world is inevitable. Scientists refute most hypotheses, but also agree that this can happen.
When you think about the reigns of dictators such as Hitler, Stalin, Saddam, Kim Jong-un and other classic political dictatorships, it is easy to assume that such a scenario can also be considered the beginning of the end of civilization.
As a result of another doomsday scenario, man-made nanorobots will get out of control and destroy humanity.
Many scientists are concerned that extremely powerful gamma radiation from neighboring galaxies, as a result of a very strong explosion, could cause the death of our planet. This hypothesis helps explain the so-called Fermi Paradox, which indicates that besides us, there are no other technologically advanced civilizations in the Universe, since gamma rays may have destroyed everything.
This is a controversial issue, but many believe that as a result of human activity, the resulting global warming will become a factor that can be considered as the cause of climate change and the death of life on our planet.
The sun periodically throws hot radioactive clouds of gas into space, which threaten magnetic field Earths, as they are extremely powerful and reach the Earth in just a few hours. According to some scientists, as a result of the damage that man brings to his planet, uncontrolled coronal ejections from the Sun will one day destroy the planet.
The Big Bang theory is another dubious cosmological hypothesis, according to which the matter of the Universe, ranging from stars, galaxies to atoms and other particles that appeared as a result of this explosion, will disappear in the same way in the future.
The Big Squeeze is another scientific hypothesis the end of our existence. As a result, the Universe will shrink and explode. Big Bang gave birth to it, but the Big Crunch will destroy it.
"Genetic contamination" is a dubious term used to explain uncontrolled use genetic engineering, which interferes with the natural world. It is undesirable to interfere with genes, since once you create new organisms, you can irreversibly harm existing ones. Undesirable dominant species may emerge as a result of spontaneous mutations.
Another risk to the life of humanity can be considered global epidemics, which can spread very quickly through airborne droplets and kill people just a few hours before humanity finds an effective cure.
What would the planet look like if humanity suddenly disappeared from the face of the earth like the dinosaurs? Several reasons can lead to the sudden extinction of humanity. For example, all men will become gay and human reproduction will stop.
There are two scenarios for the development of the future of the Universe, and both lead to its death. Some scientists say the universe will explode, while others say it will freeze. One way or another, both scenarios are absolutely unoptimistic.
The threat of overpopulation of the planet is being heard more and more often. Many experts argue that by 2050 this will become the most big problem for us. The fact is that humanity will be so numerous that there will not be enough of various life-sustaining resources, for example, water and oil. As a result, we get hunger, drought, disease and endless wars between countries.
Excessive consumption is already considered one of the risks in 2015. Because people consume much more than nature can regenerate. Manifestations of overconsumption include huge fish catches and excessive consumption of meat. The same applies to vegetables and fruits.
Albert Einstein was one of the first to predict the end of the world as a result of World War III. He said that he did not know what weapons humanity would use during the Third World War, but in the Fourth World War humanity would fight with stones and clubs.
The death of civilization is the most realistic scenario among those that predict the death of humanity. An example is the fate of the Mayan civilization or Byzantine Empire. The same thing can happen to all of humanity in the future.
Nuclear holocaust and apocalypse are among the most real risks which could lead to the death of humanity. This can happen because the world has accumulated a huge amount nuclear weapons.
The New World Order could be established by one of the secret organizations that exist today (Illuminati, Freemasons, Zionists, etc.). Today they are under the control of society, but in the future they can become more powerful and, with their dogmas and actions, lead humanity to slavery and the service of evil.
The essence of the Malthusian catastrophe according to Thomas Malth, author of “An Essay on the Law of Population” (1798), is that in the future the population will overtake the growth and opportunities of the agricultural sector of the economy and stability. After which the population will decline and decrease, and disasters will begin.
This theory has existed since antiquity and most (if not all) have seen countless films in which, on one sunny day, a certain alien civilization will conquer the planet and try to destroy life on it. This will not happen in the near future, but perhaps it will happen someday.
Transhumanism is an international cultural and intellectual movement of several recent years, the purpose of which is to understand the great role of technology in transforming and improving the quality of the material, physical and mental spheres of human life. Although it sounds great, humanity may suffer as a result of the information and technological revolution.
Experts use the concept of “technological singularity” to describe a hypothetical scenario in which rapid technological progress will play a cruel joke on humanity, which will create artificial intelligence and die, losing control over clones and robots.
The concept of "mutually assured destruction" refers to the global use of weapons for the purpose of mass destruction of people and the planet. This is a realistic scenario if we evaluate the current political and military situation in the world.
Those who have watched the movie “Die Another Day” know that kinetic bombardment can destroy life on the planet. If you haven't seen the movie, then imagine the development of a space weapon that can destroy everything on Earth in a couple of seconds. Scary? Scary. But scientists even calculated the probability to thousandths of a percent.
People victorian era imagined that in 100 years cities would have moving sidewalks, houses that could be moved on rails, canopies against bad weather, personal airships and other bourgeois delights. The fantasies of the Victorian romantics did not extend beyond such urban improvements, although many ideas found their embodiment during the 20th century.
But what awaits us in the 21st century? And what can we, residents of the digital age, for whom artificial intelligence and “smart technologies” have become commonplace, fantasize about? About superpowers? Oh even more " smart technologies"? Or about the return of good old inventions - like the airship?
Source: Flickr
You can guess endlessly, or you can simply study the most complete futurological forecast by Raymond Kurzweil, Google's technical director. He publishes his forecasts of technological advances modern civilization since the 1990s, and if you try to collect all the predictions he made over 25 years in interviews, lectures, books and blogs, you can trace the history of the probable future from 2019 to 2099. So, the future through the eyes of Ray Kurzweil.
2019 – Wires and cables for personal and peripheral devices of any field will become a thing of the past.
2020 – Personal computers will achieve computing power comparable to the human brain.
2021 – Wireless Internet will cover 85% of the Earth's surface.
2022 – The USA and Europe will begin to pass laws regulating the relationship between people and robots. The rights and obligations of robots, their activities and any restrictions will be strictly regulated.
Source: Flickr
2024 – Elements of computer intelligence will become mandatory in cars, and people will be prohibited from driving a car that is not equipped with a computer assistant.
2025 – The emergence and development of a mass market for implant gadgets.
2026 - Thanks to scientific progress, per unit of time we will extend our life by more time than has passed.
2027 – A personal robot capable of performing complex actions will become as commonplace as Dishwasher or coffee maker.
2028 – Solar energy will become so cheap and widespread that it will satisfy the entire total energy needs of humanity.
2029 – A computer will be able to pass the Turing test, proving that it has intelligence in the human sense of the word. According to Kurzweil, this will be achieved through computer simulation human brain.
2030 – Thanks to the flourishing of nanotechnology in industry, the production of products will become significantly cheaper.
2031 – 3D printers for printing human organs will be used in any hospitals.
2032 – Nanorobots will begin to be used for medical purposes: they will be able to deliver nutrients to human cells, remove waste, and conduct detailed scans of the human brain to better understand the details of how it works.
Source: Flickr
2033 – Self-driving cars will appear on the roads.
2034 – “The First Date of a Man with Artificial Intelligence” is a kind of continuation of the film “Her”, but only with minor amendments: a virtual lover can be equipped with a “body” by projecting an image onto the retina of the eye, for example, using contact lenses or virtual reality glasses.
2035 – Space technology will become sufficiently developed to provide reliable protection Earth from the threat of collision with asteroids.
2036 “Using the same approach to biology as to programming, humanity will be able to program cells for the first time to treat diseases, and the use of 3D printers will allow us to grow new tissues and organs.
2037 – A giant breakthrough in understanding the mysteries of the human brain: hundreds of different subregions with specialized functions will be identified, and some of the algorithms that encode the development of these regions will be deciphered and incorporated into the neural networks of computers.
2038 – The emergence of robotic people, products of transhumanistic technologies. These “new Frankensteins” will be equipped with additional intelligence (for example, focused on a specific narrow field of knowledge) and a variety of implants - from camera eyes to additional prosthetic hands.
