Great Britain is leaving the European Union. What are the consequences of Britain leaving the EU? Fall of world currencies

On the morning of Friday, June 24, unexpected news came from Britain, where the results of the vote to withdraw the kingdom from the European Union were summed up. Contrary to the expectations of sociologists and bookmakers, 52 percent of Britons are in favor of Brexit. What does this mean for the British, Europeans and Russians? We have selected the main consequences of the referendum.

Markets are in a fever

Exchanges are in shock. European markets opened with record falls on news of the referendum results. The British FTSE 250 stock index fell by more than 11 percent, the largest drop in its history. The FTSE 100 fell 8%.

There is a domino effect and investors are panicking around the world. Japan's TOPIX index fell 7.3%. The French CAC 40 stock exchange index fell by 9.2%, the German DAX by 8.2%, the Italian by 10.6%, and the Spanish by 10.26%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 6.6%. The Moscow Exchange indices also decreased: MICEX by 2.64%, RTS by 4.48% (as of 12.00 Moscow time)

Fall of world currencies

In just a few hours, the pound sterling fell by 11 percent against the US dollar. This is the worst figure since 1985, when Margaret Thatcher was still sitting at 10 Downing Street. At the same time, other world currencies are falling: the euro fell by 3.5% against the dollar, and on the Hong Kong stock exchange the yuan fell by almost a percent.

The head of the Bank of England has already promised to allocate 250 billion pounds to “calm the markets.” The country's banks, he said, are now more resilient than before the 2008 crisis, and while establishing new relationships with the rest of the world will take some time for the UK, the country's financial system is well prepared for the shake-up.

Covered Russia too

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned that the results of the referendum could affect oil prices and, accordingly, the ruble exchange rate. And he was right: the price of a barrel of Brent in the morning fell by six and a half percent to $47.6, at the same time the ruble fell sharply against the dollar.

Possible secession of Scotland

Britain's exit from the EU could lead to the collapse of the United Kingdom itself. The voting map clearly shows that while most of England voted for Brexit, all of Scotland unanimously voted to remain with Brussels. The EU's argument was one of the decisive ones in the Scottish referendum two years ago. Now the voting will take place again, and it is quite possible to expect that its results will be different. At least the first minister of Scotland and leader of the national party, Nicola Sturgeon, has a new referendum.

Change of government

Within hours of the announcement of the referendum results, British Prime Minister David Cameron, who advocated for the kingdom to remain in the European Union, resigned. However, this will not happen today or tomorrow. The government, he said, will continue to work until mid-autumn.

The very future of the European Union is in doubt

Just because the majority voted for Brexit in the referendum does not mean that Britain will leave the EU today. This is a rather complex bureaucratic procedure, which is prescribed in Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. Long negotiations and votes could take up to two years or more. However, Brussels has no way to stop the exit. At some point it will happen automatically, even if the negotiations break down.

What happened is huge for the European integration project itself. For the first time in its more than sixty-year history, it is not increasing, but decreasing. The logic of the development of the European continent over the past decades has been violated, which was based on the fact that countries will strive to open borders and join forces (Schengen, Maastricht, etc.). Eurosceptics also hint at the possibility of repeating the Brexit scenario in France, the Netherlands, Austria and so on, which in turn could lead to the complete collapse of the EU.

Immigration restrictions

Restricting the flow of immigrants was one of the slogans of supporters of Britain's exit from the EU. And indeed, most likely, this will allow the kingdom to close the borders to low-skilled migrants (“Polish plumbers”) and even ask those who have already moved to the island to leave; by the way, there are more than two million of them, and many of them are married or married to citizens Britain. At the same time, two million Britons live in EU countries, their status is also to be determined.

Almost 52% of voters voted for the UK to leave the EU - after which Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he was resigning, and unprecedented volatility arose in the financial and commodity markets (see pages 11 and 15). The disintegration event, unprecedented in post-war Europe, also caused a lot of commentary on how it would affect the interests of the European Union, the United States and Russia.

The tone was set by former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFall. In an article for the Washington Post, he expressed the opinion that Britain’s exit from the EU would strengthen, first of all, Russia’s position: “Europe is now weakening, while Russia, its allies and its integration associations are gaining strength and even expanding their ranks.<...>Putin and his foreign policy benefit greatly from this.” At stake are sanctions against Russia, the strengthening of pro-Putin and Eurosceptic parties in Europe, the weakening of Ukraine’s position and the dim future of the United States’ closest ally, Great Britain, on the world stage, the former ambassador believes.

What is Brexit? When will it take place? Why is the UK leaving the European Union?
On March 13, 2017, the British Parliament released a bill that approves the actions of Prime Minister Theresa May to withdraw the UK from the European Union. To start the process itself, what is missing is a decree from the Queen, after which Article 50 will be ratified. It is this document that stipulates exactly how the UK will leave the EU. Most likely, the process itself will not begin until the end of March 2017. This decision is caused by elections in the Netherlands. But we can already say that March 2017 will go down in history as the time when Great Britain left the European Union. The powerful association, which previously rested on the shoulders of the three main pillars of Europe - and England, will definitely lose one of the locomotives of the European economy. How does this threaten the EU and Britain itself? Why has this process been called Brexit (Brexit) in the official media since 2016?

Brexit (Brexit): what is it? Definition

The neologism brexit (Brexit) is an acronym for two English words Britain (Britain) and Exit (exit). It refers to the process of Great Britain leaving the European Union. A nationwide referendum was held in the United Kingdom in 2016. As a result of the referendum, the majority of British residents supported the initiative to leave the EU.
The other two acronyms, frexit and grexit, refer to the possible exit of France and Greece from the EU, respectively. Both terms are used by politicians and the media.
In Russian paper and electronic media, brexit is transliterated as brexit or brexit. Such differences are caused by the lack of a tradition of transliteration of this term.

In 1973, Britain joined the EU. Overall, until 2015, regular polls indicated that a majority of people in the British Isles supported membership of the European Union. In 1980 (the first year of Margaret Thatcher's premiership), 65% said they wanted to leave the European Union. Thatcher negotiated monetary compensation from the EU in exchange for Britain agreeing to remain in the EU. In 2000, Prime Minister Tony Blair advocated deeper integration with the EU (including the abolition of pounds and adoption of the euro). The initiative did not pass.
In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron refused calls for a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, but agreed to hold a referendum in the future. The parliamentary majority and the UKIP movement forced Cameron to announce in January 2013 that the Conservative government would hold a referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017 (if the Tories won the 2015 election).
Surprisingly, the Conservatives won the general election in 2015. Shortly after, the EU Referendum Act 2015 was introduced into the British Parliament. Cameron advocated remaining in the new EU under special conditions:

• • protection of the single market for non-eurozone countries,
  • red ribbon reduction,
  • a guarantee that Britain will not be forced to integrate into the EU,
  • restrictions on immigration from the EU.

Prerequisites for Brexit

An attempt to reach an agreement with the EU led nowhere. As announced in February 2016, even restrictions on the mandatory provision of jobs for EU immigrants will have to be agreed upon by the European Commissioner and the European Council.
On 22 February 2016, in a speech in the House of Commons, Prime Minister David Cameron was forced to announce the date of the referendum on leaving the EU as 23 June 2016.
Cameron called for immediate adoption of Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union immediately after the referendum. Thus, launching the two-year process of the UK leaving the EU.
Upon the announcement of the results of the referendum, Cameron announced that he was resigning as prime minister (on the grounds that no one supported his intentions to remain in the EU).
It is quite obvious that the people of Britain are tired of dragging behind lagging states and feeding them.

Referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union

The UK Prime Minister has scheduled the UKLeave referendum (to leave the European Union) for June 23, 2016.
A total of 46,500,001 people voted. The turnout was 72.21%. Only 0.08% of ballots were declared invalid. 17,410,742 UK residents voted to leave the EU. 16,141,241 – for staying. With a result of 51.89% in favor of leaving, against 48.11%, the British voted to leave the EU.
The results of the referendum, held on June 23, 2016, came as a surprise. No one expected that the majority of Britons would support the country's exit from the EU.
From that day on, Britain's membership in the European Union was no longer an issue. The people spoke clearly. An attempt to collect 4 million signatures for a new referendum was unsuccessful. The British Parliament has made it clear that there will be no repeat referendum.
The legal basis for Brexit is still subject to clarification (within the next 2 years), but the possible economic consequences can be estimated now.
The results of calculations made back in 2016 are contradictory: a single market and a single tariff regime objectively contributed to the development of trade between the united Britain and other EU countries.
According to the 2016 referendum, the majority of people in Scotland and Northern Ireland, like the capital of England, are against Brexit. Already on 24 June 2016, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon stated that Scotland should remain within the European single market.
From some perspectives, Britain's decision to leave the EU is economically inappropriate. The current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, has found herself under serious pressure. Some circles expect that the UK, despite leaving the EU, will retain some of the benefits of EU member states. That is, to mitigate the consequences of Brexit as much as possible.
Future relations between the UK and the EU may follow the scenario of a soft Brexit or a hard Brexit.
Both terms are informal.
A hard Brexit means that Britain will trade with the EU on the same terms as any other non-EU country (according to World Trade Association rules). However, the UK may not agree with the rule of free movement of people within the EU.
A soft Brexit involves keeping Britain within the single European market for goods and services and partially free movement of people (according to the rules of the European Economic Region).

Political consequences of Brexit

After the results of the referendum were announced, Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he would resign his post in October 2016. On July 13, 2016, Theresa May became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Philip Hammond became Chancellor of the Exchequer (instead of George Osborne). Former London Mayor Boris Johnson has become Secretary of State for the Commonwealth. Labor leader Jeremy Corbijn has been ousted from his leadership position in the Labor Party.
Nigel Farage has announced his resignation as leader of UKIP.
After the results of the referendum were announced, many Eurosceptics announced that they were ready to follow the example of Great Britain.
Within 2 weeks of the announcement of the UKLeave results, EU countries held referendums on whether to remain in the European Union.
A week after the referendum result was announced, Gordon Brown, the former Labor Prime Minister of Great Britain who signed the Lisbon Agreement in 2007, said that the country would spend the next ten years grappling with the consequences of the referendum.
Former Labor Party leader and British Prime Minister (1997-2007) Tony Blair called for a second referendum in October 2016. Parliament and the British Queen did not appreciate Tony's initiative. In November 2016, John Major (former prime minister before Blair) even said that Parliament should not ratify anything, and that it was time to hold a new referendum.
Again: Parliament and Her Majesty did not support the initiative.

The latest news on Brexit (Brexit) is as follows: According to the official statement of David Davis, Minister for Brexit, at the end of March 2017, Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, will launch the procedure for Britain to leave the European Union.
At the moment, it is unclear which option – an easy Brexit or a hard Brexit – the UK will choose. In any case, Britain's exit from the EU will take place in accordance with Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement on the European Community.
The House of Lords announced on March 13 that it would not amend the government bill following the 2016 referendum results.
News on the Brexit process also indicates that the House of Commons (previously) rejected amendments from the House of Lords. An amendment requiring the government to guarantee the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in Britain has been repealed. The amendment according to which the government will not agree with Parliament on the terms of Britain's exit from the European Community has also been cancelled.
It has not been established exactly when Theresa May will send a formal request for Britain to leave the European Union. At first they called it March 14, but then it became known that this would not happen before the end of March 2017.
One of the main reasons for this delay is that London does not want to disrupt the elections in the Netherlands and the celebration of the sixtieth anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. It was this agreement that became the prototype of the EEC, and then the current European Union.
Technically, the next stage is a meeting of representatives of 27 countries (to be held on April 6, 2017), where the basic principles of further negotiations with London will be determined.
Scotland continues to throw a spanner in the works. Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says Scotland will hold a referendum on secession from the United Kingdom in 2019.

Consequences of Brexit for Russia

The Russian Federation is an outside observer of the processes taking place in Europe, but the rhetoric of official state newspapers and other media boils down to a single assessment: Brexit is the obvious outcome of the economic and political crisis that has been raging in Europe for many years. Local political scientists do not see any negative consequences for Russia from Britain’s exit from the EU.

On November 10, 2015, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced the official launch of a campaign to change the terms of UK membership of the EU. Cameron sent a letter to the President of the European Council, in which...

1) the UK’s reduction in the migration flow from the EU (including the introduction of a four-year ban on these migrants receiving social benefits; the introduction of a six-month ban on unemployment benefits for migrants from the EU; tightening the rules for the deportation of criminal migrants, etc.);

2) improving competitiveness (elimination of bureaucratic barriers, any restrictions on the movement of capital, goods and services);

3) strengthening British sovereignty, in particular, abandoning the obligation to move towards an “ever closer union” enshrined in the founding EU treaty;

4) changes in the monetary sphere (in particular, the inadmissibility of discrimination against countries outside the euro area, the imposition of any decisions on them by eurozone countries; making changes, including those relating to the creation of a banking union, only on a voluntary basis, etc.).

Cameron has committed himself to voting in a referendum to leave the EU if these conditions are not met.
Since November, when Cameron presented a list of demands, the services of the European Council and the European Commission have been conducting intensive negotiations with London, agreeing on the details of a possible deal.

On February 19, 2016, it became known that the leaders of the European Union, after a two-day debate, agreed with the UK, at which British Prime Minister David Cameron would support keeping his country in the EU in the upcoming referendum. The member countries agreed on the text of the document, which was to come into force on the day the British government notifies the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU about the UK's decision to remain a member of the European Union following the referendum.

Among the agreements reached at the EU summit was the inclusion of a “protection mechanism” for the UK social system for seven years without the right of extension, while the “probationary period” during which newly arrived migrants will not be paid social benefits will be four years. Another important point was the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU principle of an “ever closer union of the peoples of Europe,” which presupposes the integration of countries within the EU. The third key point was the statement of the principle that " ".

June 23, 2016 in the UK on the issue of the country's exit from the EU, initiated by David Cameron. About 52% of Britons voted for leaving the EU, 48% voted against.

On June 24, 2016, British Prime Minister David Cameron, following the results of the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union. Cameron, who opposed Brexit, was going to retain his post regardless of the outcome of the vote, but changed his mind.