Technological risks. Presentation on the concept of risk

23.09.2019

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Effective entrepreneurial activity in many cases is associated with the development of new equipment and technologies, increasing the level of labor productivity. However, the introduction of new equipment and technologies is associated with the occurrence of man-made disasters that cause damage to the environment, means of production, as well as the life and health of people. All this gives rise to technical risk.

Technical risk is a risk caused by technical factors. Technical risk is a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of the elements of the technosphere and expresses the likelihood of an accident or catastrophe during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation of technological processes, construction and operation of buildings and structures.

Technical risk is determined by the degree of organization of production, the implementation of preventive measures (regular maintenance of equipment, safety measures), and the possibility of repairing equipment using the enterprise’s own resources.

Technical risks include the probability of losses:

due to negative results of research work;
as a result of failure to achieve planned technical parameters during design and technological developments;
as a result of low technological production capabilities, which does not allow the development of new developments;
as a result of the occurrence of side or delayed problems when using new technologies and products;
as a result of equipment failures and breakdowns, etc.

One of the varieties of this risk is technological risk– the risk that, as a result of technological changes, existing production and distribution systems will become obsolete and thereby have a negative impact on the company’s level of capitalization and limit its ability to make a profit. At the same time, modernization and improvement (complication) of technical means, an increase in the number of technical elements also contributes to a decrease in their reliability and, accordingly, an increase in risk.

In any new technological and design development there is a technical risk, i.e. the likelihood that the developed technology or design will be unsuccessful and a different technical solution or modification or fine-tuning will be required. Such fine-tuning is especially labor-intensive in cases where the automatic line is unique, its operating technology and most design solutions are original, without close, well-studied prototypes.

Technical risks arise due to:

design errors;
shortcomings of technology and incorrect choice of equipment;
erroneous determination of power;
shortcomings in management;
lack of qualified labor;
lack of experience working with new equipment;
disruption of supplies of raw materials, construction materials, and components;
failure to meet construction deadlines by contractors (subcontractors);
increases in prices for raw materials, energy and components;
increasing equipment costs;
rising wage costs.

Safety studies of technical objects indicate that danger is inherent in any systems and operations. In practice, it is impossible to achieve absolute safety from a technical point of view, and from an economic point of view it is impractical. This is due to the fact that the reliability of technical systems cannot be absolute. Risks associated with unreliable systems can be reduced as a result of testing and modification of equipment in order to improve its quality and reliability.

In addition, technical risks accompany the construction of new facilities and their subsequent operation. Among them are construction, installation and operational risks. Construction and installation risks include the following:

loss or damage to construction materials and equipment due to adverse events - natural disasters, fires, explosions, criminal actions of third parties, etc.;
disruption of the functioning of the facility due to errors in its design and installation;
receipt of physical injuries by personnel involved in the construction of the facility.

Technical risk belongs to the group of internal risks, since an enterprise can directly influence these risks and their occurrence, as a rule, depends on the activities of the enterprise itself.

In connection with the development of scientific and technological progress, the increase in capital intensity of production, the increase in the share of technological equipment in the production process, as well as in connection with the increase in the volume of construction and installation work, the negative impact of technical risks has significantly increased, which, in turn, contributed to the emergence of a separate industry insurance (, etc.).

Production risks - risks associated with losses from stopping production due to the influence of various factors and, above all, with the loss or damage of fixed and working capital (equipment, raw materials, transport, etc.), as well as risks associated with the introduction into production new equipment and technology.

Technical and production risks – risk of damage to the environment (ecological risk); risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption to the functioning of the facility due to errors in design and installation, non-compliance with production technologies and processes, a number of construction risks, etc.

Technical and technological risks are risks of losses caused by violations of the technology of controlled processes, unscheduled shutdowns of equipment caused by difficulties in the technical and technological implementation of innovations, etc. They are associated with factors of uncertainty that influence the technical and technological component of the activity during project implementation, in particular: reliability of equipment, predictability of production processes and technologies, their complexity, level of automation, pace of modernization of equipment and technologies, these relate to internal risks, i.e. technical and technological. A set of risks corresponding to a certain type of activity can be called a set of risks. The following types of risks are identified in the domestic literature.

Environmental risks. Environmental risk refers to the likelihood of civil liability for damage to the environment, as well as the health of third parties. It can arise during the construction and operation of production facilities, space activities and is an integral part of industrial risk.

Environmental damage is expressed in the form of pollution or destruction of forest, water, air and land resources, harm to the biosphere and agricultural land.

“Damage to the life and health of third parties” is understood as the result of the harmful effects of production factors on the population surrounding the industrial facility, expressed in the form of an increase in morbidity and mortality.

It is advisable, together with environmental ones, to consider related risks of civil liability for causing harm to third parties during the production process or during space activities, which can be both legal entities (organizations) and individuals (population).

The most likely cases that may result in civil liability are accidents, excess emissions and leaks of harmful substances at production facilities or during space activities, the impact of which affected the surrounding territory.

The concept of environmental and legal responsibility was first formulated in the RSFSR Law “On Enterprises and Business Activities,” which provided for compensation for damage from pollution and irrational use of the natural environment. This provision was developed in the RSFSR Law “On Environmental Protection”, which, in particular, considers three types of harm subject to compensation:

caused to the natural environment by a source of increased danger;
caused to the health of citizens by adverse effects on the natural environment;
caused to citizens' property.

The Russian Federation Law “On Industrial Safety of Hazardous Production Facilities”, adopted in 1997, stipulates that an enterprise – a source of increased danger – is obliged to provide measures to protect the population and the environment from hazardous influences. In Art. 15 refers to compulsory insurance of liability for damage caused during the operation of a hazardous production facility, and Art. 16 – that officials of the federal executive body specially authorized in the field of industrial safety have the right to act in accordance with the established procedure in court or in arbitration court as a representative in claims for compensation for harm caused to the life, health and property of other persons due to violations of industrial safety requirements.

Thus, at the legislative level, the responsibility of the enterprise for environmental pollution is declared and the possibility of satisfying claims of individuals, organizations and the state against the enterprise that is responsible for causing environmental damage is provided.

Industrial risks. Any production activity is associated with the development of new equipment and technologies, the search for reserves, and an increase in production intensity. However, the introduction of new equipment and technologies leads to the danger of man-made disasters that cause significant damage to nature, people, and production. Industrial risks mean the danger of causing damage to the enterprise and third parties due to disruption of the normal course of the production process. In addition, these include the danger of damage or loss of production equipment and transport, destruction of buildings and structures as a result of the influence of such external factors as natural forces and malicious actions.

For industrial production, the most serious and common risk is the risk of machine and equipment failures, and in the most severe cases, the occurrence of an emergency. This can happen at industrial facilities as a result of events of various types:

natural – earthquake, flood, landslides, hurricane, tornado, lightning strike
etc.;
man-made – wear and tear of buildings, structures, machinery and equipment, errors in its design or installation, malicious actions, personnel errors, damage to equipment during construction and repair work, crash of aircraft or their parts, etc.;
mixed - a disturbance of the natural balance as a result of man-made human activity, for example, the occurrence of a landslide during construction work.

Technical risks are associated with the possibility of accidents due to sudden failure of machinery and equipment or failure in production technology. The problem of technical types of insurance is the assessment of the frequency of accidents and the method for assessing damage from them. Technical types of insurance are universal in nature, i.e. they protect the object from many causes of damage (control errors, installation errors, violations of technology, negligence in work, etc.), which lead to premature failures and failure of machines and equipment. Thus, technical risks involve damage to property, life and health of people, as well as the financial interests of the enterprise due to interruption in production and excess costs.

According to the type composition of fixed and working capital, in which technical risks manifest themselves, they are divided:

for machinery and equipment - industrial risks;
buildings, structures, transmission devices – construction (construction and installation) risks;
instruments, computer technology, communications – electrical risks;
vehicles – transport risks (hull insurance);
agriculture – risks of animal and plant diseases, livestock deaths, crop damage, etc.

Technical risks include:

the likelihood of losses due to negative results of research work;
the likelihood of losses as a result of failure to achieve planned technical parameters during design and technological developments;
the likelihood of losses from low technological production capabilities, which does not allow one to master the results of new developments;
the likelihood of losses as a result of the occurrence of side or delayed problems when using new technologies and products;
probability of losses due to failures, equipment breakdown, etc.

All human experience shows that the repetition of types of disasters means that they can be partially predicted and managed at different levels. By making such a classification of types of disasters, it can be shown that managing the risks of these disasters is possible only at a certain level of human organization.

Since the capabilities of any state are limited, its integration with other states seems necessary. This integration makes it possible to manage cross-border and supranational risks, which is a necessary prerequisite for moving to a higher level of management. A good example of international integration is international cooperation in the field of observation and research of earthquake precursors, which have a regional and global scale. There are other large international projects:

creating animals with pre-planned properties; In modern scientific literature, several types of risk are considered, each of which has its own characteristics.

Technical and technological risks

Technological risk is associated with the characteristics of the technologies used by companies.

Technical risk is a risk caused by failures in the organization of production, technological disasters and changes in production intensity.

Technical risk is expressed:

in sudden stops in production;
in equipment failures and breakdowns;
failure to achieve the desired parameters of the organization’s activities at a significant level of technology;
in the interaction of technology with existing technical means.

Its peculiarity is that it is not capable of covering losses through the depreciation fund; does not lead to losses; may be due to human factors.

Effective entrepreneurial activity is traditionally associated with the development of new equipment and technology, the search for reserves, and an increase in production intensity. At the same time, the introduction of new equipment and technology leads to the danger of man-made disasters that cause significant damage to nature, people, and production. In this case we are talking about technical risk. Do not forget that it will be important to say that technical risk belongs to the group of internal risks, since an entrepreneur can have a direct impact on these risks and their occurrence traditionally depends on the activities of the entrepreneur himself.

Let us note that technical risk is determined by the degree of organization of production, the implementation of preventive measures (regular maintenance of equipment, safety measures), and the possibility of carrying out equipment repairs using the entrepreneurial firm’s own resources.

The ICH Q9 document “Quality risk management” proposes the use of various tools for risk management (annex), including technical risks:

basic quality management tools;
failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA);
failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA);
fault tree analysis (FTA);
Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP);
Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP);
statistical control (SPC) tools. Uncertainty manifests itself in the parameters of information at all stages of its processing and, accordingly, at all stages of the technological cycle of a management decision. It is difficult to measure. Usually it is assessed qualitatively, such as more or less, for example, the uncertainty of information is 30%.

A high probability of risk occurrence corresponds to a minimum of quality information. To increase the accuracy of risk analysis, the following process algorithm is used:

I. Fixation of risks

When assessing financial and economic activities, it is proposed to record risks, i.e. limit the number of existing risks using the principle of “reasonable sufficiency”. This principle is based on taking into account the most significant and most common risks for assessing the financial and economic activities of an enterprise. It is recommended to use the following types of risks: regional, natural, political, legislative, transport, property, organizational, personal, marketing, production, settlement, investment, currency, credit, financial.

Drawing up an algorithm for the decision to be made

This stage in assessing the risks of financial and economic activity is intended for the gradual division of the planned solution into a certain number of smaller and simpler solutions. This action is called drawing up a solution algorithm.

III. Qualitative risk assessment

Qualitative risk assessment implies: identification of risks inherent in the implementation of the proposed solution; determination of the quantitative structure of risks; identification of the most risky areas in the developed decision algorithm. Risk analysis can be divided into two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis aims to determine (identify) factors, areas and types of risks. Quantitative risk analysis should make it possible to numerically determine the size of individual risks and the risk of the enterprise as a whole.

The main goal of this assessment stage is to identify the main types of risks affecting financial and economic activities. The advantage of this approach is that already at the initial stage of analysis the head of the enterprise can clearly assess the degree of riskiness by the quantitative composition of risks and already at this stage refuse to implement a certain decision.

Quantitative risk assessment

Risk analysis can be divided into two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis aims to determine (identify) factors, areas and types of risks. Quantitative risk analysis should make it possible to numerically determine the size of individual risks and the risk of the enterprise as a whole.

It is proposed to base the quantitative risk assessment on the methodology used when conducting audits, namely: risk assessment at control points of financial and economic activity. The use of this method, as well as the results of qualitative analysis, allow for a comprehensive assessment of the risks of financial and economic activity.

Refers to internal risks.
Technical risk – risk caused by disruptions in the organization of production, technological disasters and changes in production intensity.

Technical risk is expressed:

in sudden stops in production;
in equipment failures and breakdowns;
failure to achieve the desired parameters of the organization’s activities at a significant level of technology;
in the interaction of technology with existing technical means.

Its feature– is not capable of covering losses through the depreciation fund; does not lead to losses; may be due to human factors.
Technological risk – is associated with the characteristics of the technologies used by companies.
Types of risk:

Imperfect technologies that accelerate wear and tear of technical equipment;
Technology does not give the company any competitive advantage;
Obsolescence of technologies;
The risk of losing technological advantage as a result of the activities of competitors;
Incompatibility of technology or its inapplicability when the scale of the organization’s activities changes;
The technology can be effective if it does not comply with legislation and product quality requirements;

Evaluation methods:

all qualitative methods of technological risks;
assessment method accompanied by documentation.

Risks associated with the human factor

All risks that can influence human behavior or are caused by it have an impact on the decision-making process and can influence the interests of participants in the activity (extracting interests).

Types of risks:

Behavioral risks;
Risk of conflicts;
Risk of disloyalty;
Risk of incompetence and unprofessionalism.

Behavioral risks
They arise in the process of the organization’s activities, caused by the interaction between risk subjects, having a subjective nature and aimed at changing human behavior.
Its subjects are:

All employees of the organization, including company management;
Third-party specialists operating on contractual terms;
Third parties having an interest in the company’s activities;
Owners of the organization;
Government agencies and other regulatory agencies.

Peculiarity:

Unpredictable;
The consequences of their impact cannot be assessed in advance;
Difficult to identify;
It is impossible to regulate within the limits of manifestation;
They are subjective.

Factors causing behavioral risk:

Psychological characteristics of a particular person (related to the person’s temperament, etc.);
Dissatisfaction with the work (conditions), level of payment, as well as the moral and psychological climate in the team;
Ineffective management of the organization and personnel in particular.

Difficulties in managing behavioral risk:

The inability to take into account the mental characteristics of each employee of the organization;
The person making the decision may be too distant from the team in which this decision is being implemented;
Personal benefit of participants in economic activity;
Impact of competitors (3rd party influence).

Evaluation methods:

psychological;
all are high quality.

Behavioral risk can become catastrophic and lead to bankruptcy of an organization.

31.03.2009 Lecture No. 8

Risks of conflicts
Factors affecting the activities of personnel and capable of causing the risk of conflicts:

features of social-emotional relationships;
features of business relations;
Negotiating relationships;
relations of power and dependence.

There are 3 main types of risks:

risk of conflict between representatives of the same hierarchy level:
- within one department of one horizontal hierarchy;
- within different departments of the same horizontal hierarchy.
the risk of conflict between a manager and a subordinate;
the risk of conflict between managers and subordinates (i.e. with the entire organization);
the risk of automation or isolation of labor units in the team. This type is derived from the first 3.

Features of conflict risks:

the risks are of a speculative nature;
are caused mainly by psychological differences;
the impact of risk in a conflict situation extends beyond the organization;
may be protracted;
may be based on personal likes and dislikes;
very difficult to manage.

Mobbing- conflict based on psychological factors (for example, the organization doesn’t like a person and everyone is trying to get rid of him).

Risk of disloyalty
Risk of disloyalty– a risk caused by the human factor, associated with the presence of opposing tendencies in the team and contributing to the realization of the employee’s personal goals.
Features of risk:

occurs when an employee places personal goals above organizational goals (i.e., personal goals that can only be achieved within the organization);
when this risk impacts the organization’s activities, the company always incurs losses;
the person causing such a risk may not be aware of his own disloyalty;
risk may be caused by the risk of conflict between management and subordinates.

Features of disloyalty risk management:

timely resolution of conflict situations ;
the formation of a common interest in the conflicting result of the activity;
changing the leadership style in the organization;
creating an effective corporate culture helps reduce risk;
this risk is reduced by implementing preventive personnel management measures.

Operational risks
Operational risk– this is the risk of losses due to ineffective or destructive internal processes, human actions, erroneous functioning of information systems and technologies, as well as as a result of external factors.
Causes of operational risks:

insufficient qualifications of personnel;
incorrect distribution of functions within the organization;
lack of necessary capacity to carry out activities;
underestimation of existing threats;
lack of an effective control system;

lack of an effective system for protecting information and property.

Operational risk is always specific, i.e. its magnitude, strength, and impact are unique to each organization.
Consequences of operational risks:

inability to implement the strategy;
financial losses and the inability to carry out basic operations within a given time frame;
increase in......staff;
internal and external fraud;
disruption of the technological process of the organization's activities.

Operational risk management procedure:

development of an effective system for monitoring the financial condition of the organization and information security;
development of a continuous business process;
staff loyalty to the organization;
transfer to third-party companies of non-core business processes during outsourcing.

Are divided into:

Risks of financial systems;
Risks of industrial organizations.

Features of operational risks for financial organizations:

difficult to separate from financial risks;
have a delayed action, but can lead to significant consequences;
Can lead to negative consequences;
Accompany all financial transactions;
They affect not only the company’s own capital, but also the funds raised.

Features of industrial risk:

the most important for the organization is the risk of systems and technological risks;
due to the specifics of the organization, operational risks can cause psychological and environmental risks;

Operational risks of industrial companies are partially planned and included in the possible expenses of the organization;
The risk of lost profits for an industrial company is less relevant than for a financial one;
Operational risks in an industrial company can be successfully controlled.

04/07/2009 Lecture No. 9
Information systems risks

(subtype of operational risks)
Information systems risk – This is a subtype of a company’s operational risks that constantly affects the organization’s activities and is associated with changes in the business process or their individual characteristics in the field of information technology. Can lead to catastrophic risks.
Causes of risk:

non-compliance with safety rules for working with information;
behavioral factors;
lack of awareness of the organization’s personnel regarding the principles of working with information or information systems;
imperfection of information support;
the use of software products that do not correspond to the company’s characteristics;
industrial espionage;
causing deliberate damage by 3rd parties;
insufficient funding for the modernization of existing technologies.

Consequences of the risk:

loss of competitive advantage, reduction in profits;
violation of the data storage process associated with loss or distortion of information;
increasing the likelihood of failures in the operation of information systems;
financial losses as a result of targeted influence on the functioning of the information system;

Features of information systems risk management:

management is carried out by IT specialists;
reducing the likelihood of information risks occurring facilitates timely staff training;
The company’s information risks are reduced by constant monitoring of the information system used;
management of the effectiveness of information systems can be transferred to third parties (most often manufacturers or employees).

Financial risk
Financial risk – This is a risk that arises in the process of managing an organization’s financial assets and represents the likelihood of losing funds or part of the profit, or receiving unplanned income.
Divided into 2 main groups:

risks associated with the purchasing power of money;
risks associated with capital investment (investment risks).

money are presented in the form of inflationary, deflationary foreign exchange and liquidity risks.
Risks associated with capital investment represented by credit risk (risk of non-repayment), interest rate risk, risk of lost profits, risk of decreased profitability, risk of direct financial losses.
Risks associated with purchasing power
Currency risk
This is a risk that contributes to obtaining an unplanned result of an organization’s activities when making transactions in foreign currency due to changes in the exchange rate over time.
Types of currency risk:

operational currency risk;
economic currency risk;
balance sheet currency risk.

Operational risk – This is the risk of actual losses as a result of a specific transaction. This risk affects the organization if it makes payments or receives funds in foreign currency, the future value of which is not determined at the time of entering into obligations.
Economic risk is the probability of a negative impact of changes in the exchange rate on the economic position of the company.
Balance sheet risk– this risk is inherent in organizations that invest abroad or borrow funds in foreign currency.

The risk arises from differences in accounting reporting in different countries.
Currency risk management:

taking into account the main factors of this risk, which include:
1. inflation rates in different countries;
2. GDP level;
3. level of public debt;
4. level of political and social stability.
To reduce currency risks on the organization’s activities, the state uses limiting instruments:
1. limit on foreign countries;
2. limit on transactions with clients;
3. tool limit;
4. daily limit;
5. loss limit.
Currency risks can be reduced using hedging instruments, as well as the “netting” and “matching” methods.
Currency risks can be predicted based on daily reports on currency transactions.
methods for managing currency risks depend on the type of currency system existing in the state.

04/14/2009 Lecture No. 10
Inflation risk
This is the risk of possible depreciation of monetary assets from the effects of inflation.
Factors causing inflation risks:

devaluation of the national currency;
state control of export-import relations;
decreased availability of loans and increased interest rates on loans;
possible departure of capital from the country.

Risk Features:

the company cannot influence its magnitude, it can only manage its consequences;
hidden risk.

Deflationary risk
Caused by a deterioration in business conditions, a decrease in the profitability of commercial activities and a fall in the general price level.
Liquidity risk
This is the inability of an organization to convert its assets into cash in a short time, leading to an inability to fulfill its obligations.
Features of liquidity risk are that it is completely related to the activities of the company and is managed by its own forces.
Investment risks or risks associated with investing capital
Interest rate risk
The possibility of losses as a result of changes in interest rates or the amount of dividends from securities.

Main reasons:

irrational choice of borrower and lender, as well as types of interest rates;
change in the interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation;
changing the interest rate unilaterally;
lack of a unified investment policy in the organization.

Types of interest risk:

Portfolio risk - associated with the ownership of a portfolio of securities and is expressed in the possibility of a decrease in the value of the portfolio as a result of an increase in interest rates on securities.
Economic risk– the risk of indirect impact on the organization’s activities related to the activities of competitors.
Interest rate risk management carried out through the use of derivative financial instruments.
Risk of lost profits
Associated with the failure to receive possible profit as a result of not implementing any activity when choosing a different method of financing (investment).
Causes of risk:

lack of awareness of various investment objects;
behavioral factor;
insufficient competence of the decision maker;
factor of chance.

Risk of decreased profitability
Associated with changes in investment dividends.

Risk of direct financial losses
An organization's net risk associated with making poor investment decisions.
Manifests:

when conducting exchange transactions;
as a result of an unexpected choice of investment object;
as a result of termination;
as a result of making an incorrect decision in force majeure circumstances.

All types of financial risks tend to increase over time.
04/21/209 Lecture No. 11

Credit risk
Credit risk (risk of non-repayment) is the likelihood that the lender will not be able to collect the loan amount and interest due to the fact that the borrower will not be able to fulfill its obligations in accordance with the terms and conditions of the loan agreement.
There are 2 types of credit risk:

banking risk;
commodity risk.

Banking risk is a subtype of credit risk associated with the activities of a financial credit organization and exists in 2 forms:

for the creditor;
for the borrower.

Commodity risk– this is the risk associated with trade credit and affecting the supplier of the goods and the buyer.

Features of credit risk:

credit risk is closely related to interest rate risk;
organizations most often decipher credit risk as pure;
credit risk can be reduced through diversification;
credit risk is subject to a wide range of management methods;
credit risk can give rise to other forms of financial risk;

A presentation on the topic The concept of risk can be downloaded absolutely free on our website. Presentation subject: Management. Colorful slides and illustrations will help you engage your classmates or audience. To view the contents of the presentation, use the player, or if you want to download the presentation, click on the corresponding text under the player. The presentation contains 15 slides.

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Risk concept

Risk is usually understood as a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of dangerous man-made or natural phenomena, as well as a characteristic of the amount of social, economic, environmental and other types of damage and harm caused. In other words, risk should be understood as the expected frequency or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain class, or the amount of possible damage (loss, harm) from an undesirable event, or some combination of these values. The use of the concept of risk allows us to transfer danger into the category of measurable categories. Risk is, in fact, a measure of danger.

Dangers in GA

The occurrence of dangerous situations is the result of the manifestation of a certain set of risk factors generated by certain sources, circumstances, and conditions. In relation to the problem of safety of civil aviation activities, such events can be: deterioration under the influence of unfavorable flight factors in the health or death of a person (user of air transport services), significant damage or destruction of an aircraft, pollution or destruction of the ecological system caused by factors of civil aviation activities, material damage from realized hazards or increased safety costs.

Risk objects

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a specific victim - an object of risk. The connection between risk objects and undesirable events allows us to distinguish between individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks. Each type of risk has characteristic sources of occurrence.

Types of risk

Individual risk

Individual risk is determined by the likelihood of potential hazards occurring when dangerous situations arise. It can be assessed by the number of events that caused harm to the life and health of people as a result of the manifestation of a certain risk factor: Ri=P(t)/L(f) where Ri is the individual risk; P is the number of victims (dead) per unit of time t from a certain risk factor f; L is the number of people exposed to the corresponding risk factor f per unit of time t.

continuation

Individual risk can be voluntary if it is caused by a person’s activities on a voluntary basis, and forced if a person is exposed to risk as part of a part of society (for example, using potentially dangerous transport services).

Technical risk

Technical risk is a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of technosphere elements. It expresses the probability of an accident or catastrophe during the operation of machines, mechanisms, and implementation of technological processes: where Rt is technical risk; T is the number of incidents due to equipment failures per unit of time t on identical technical systems and objects; T is the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common risk factor f.

Environmental risk

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic intervention in the natural environment or a natural disaster. Undesirable environmental risk events can manifest themselves both directly in intervention zones and beyond:

where RO - environmental risk; O - number of man-made environmental disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t; O is the number of potential sources of environmental destruction in the territory under consideration.

Social risk

Social risk characterizes the scale and severity of the negative consequences of various types of phenomena and transformations that reduce people’s quality of life. Essentially, it is a risk to a group or community of people. It can be assessed, for example, by the dynamics of mortality calculated per 1000 people of the corresponding group: where RC is social risk; C1 is the number of deaths per unit of time t (mortality) in the study group at the beginning of the observation period, for example, before the development of negative social events; C2 - mortality in the same group of people at the end of the observation period; L is the total number of the study group.

Technological risks. Presentation on the concept of risk

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