Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Belarus. What will happen to the ruble and the salaries of Belarusians, in what currency should they keep their savings? Expert forecast. Cryptocurrencies: a bubble that is slowly starting to deflate

Belarus has an impact on the dollar exchange rate forecast in 2018. Expert opinions differ on this issue. We can say with confidence that the situation with the US currency in the country will be stable only for 3-4 months, but it is almost impossible to predict what will happen after 6 months.

Be that as it may, experts say that as of January 1, 2018, the value of the dollar in rubles will be no more than 70 units, but this factor directly depends on how the price of oil and other fuel products will change. Today, you will give away as much as $55/barrel. This price may remain for the next few months, according to experts.

French experts believe that the fall of the ruble and the decline in oil prices over the coming year will not happen, but the undermining of the economy, and accordingly, the change in the value of the dollar currency, possibly due to the occurrence of the following circumstances:

• The construction of large architectural structures that will bring great opportunities to the country;
• The beginning of hostilities between especially large and leading states, as well as their entry into a conspiracy against other states;
• It is possible to change the current forecast in the event of the occurrence of some cataclysms (especially large floods, storms or earthquakes), which will incur a large number of victims and victims;
• The establishment of additional sanctions against the state, this will aggravate the situation, thereby causing too sharp a rise in prices within the state, and the impossibility of supplying personal products abroad.

However, one of the Parisian experts, Pierre Terzyan, argues that over the next five years the situation in the country will practically not change and there is no need to worry much about the increase in the value of the dollar. Of course, the opinions of economic prophets can be trusted only in the case when force majeure circumstances are not imminent.

Other influences on the dollar

Particularly accurate predictions and forecasts for the change in the value of the dollar against the Belarusian ruble are problematic. Not only the problems listed above, but also foreign policy relations, such as the coming to power of Donald Trump, can greatly affect the state of the American currency. It is predicted that this event will significantly change the situation in each state, but whether the leaders of the leading countries will be able to agree among themselves.

It is equally important to prevent terrorist attacks in every possible way, that is, to establish an obstacle to suicide bombers on the territory of the countries of Russia, Belarus and the United States. Such manipulations will cut a lot of expenses, which will allow to boost the economy of the states, and this will change the so expensive value of the dollar. Depositors are warned by experts that it is better to invest and store currency in dollars for a short-term period, because it is not known how the economic situation within the country will turn out. There is a high probability that next year, investors may lose their savings.

Due to the expected growth in wages and the boom in the consumer lending market, in 2018 the US dollar against the Belarusian ruble may grow by more than 10%.

Only two weeks before the end of 2017, it finally became known how the government of the Republic of Belarus is going to fulfill the President's order to increase the average wage in the country to 1,000 BYN, and whether it is going to do it at all. This happened on December 18, when in the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus officials presented a bill on the republican budget for 2018, amendments to the Budget Code and a draft law on the budget of the state non-budgetary fund for social protection of the population for 2018.

Officials do not want to raise salaries, but they will

As it turned out, officials nevertheless decided to risk their seats, and when forming the republican budget, they included in it an increase in the average annual salary not to 1,000 BYN, but only to 921-941 BYN. True, the draft budget is calculated on the basis of a conservative, that is, the worst scenario for the development of the economy of the Republic of Belarus, so there is a high probability that things will go better, the budget will receive more revenues, which officials will apparently promise the president to use to increase salaries.

At the same time, the government seems to have decided to demonstrate to the president that it has done everything it could to raise salaries: practically all the expected increase in budget revenues (according to the conservative scenario) is supposed to be directed to increasing salaries in the public sector. The wage fund in the consolidated budget as a whole should increase in 2018 by BYN 1.2 billion compared to 2017. This should ensure an increase in the average monthly salary in the public sector to 700 BYN from 615 BYN, which is expected this year. That is, the salary of state employees will increase by only 14%.

Will be increased in 2018 and: by 12%. Social payments will also increase. Compared to 2017, payments for these purposes will also increase by about 1.2 billion BYN.

Moreover, the reserve fund of the president has been increased by about 3 times (up to 1.2 billion BYN), the funds from which can also be used to increase salaries, but by order of the president. Either the officials want to shift the responsibility for wage growth onto the president, or the president himself wants to directly manage the increase in wages and budget expenditures.

Thus, the salaries of state employees in 2018 will be significantly increased, although, perhaps, not to the extent required to reach 1,000 BYN in the country as a whole.

As for non-budgetary enterprises, the situation is more complicated. Officials cannot order to raise wages there, but they are quite able to threaten the management of enterprises, which is happening in some places. Thus, the administration of the Tsentralny district of Minsk sent letters to enterprises located on the territory of the district, in which it was said that the management of the enterprises also bears personal responsibility for ensuring the wage growth plan. It turned out that the plan for the Central District in December was 1,499.3 BYN. The letter also said that for this it is possible to shift the payment of remuneration to December, that is, the executive committee hinted at how the president's order could be carried out.

It is difficult to say what effect such letters will have, but it is clear that there will be some result. Therefore, perhaps, there is no doubt that in December 2017 the salary will jump to 1 thousand BYN. There is also no doubt that in January 2018 it will fall sharply. Something similar happened at the end of last year, when there were no demands from the president yet. Many enterprises paid remuneration for the year to their employees, as a result of which the average salary in the country increased by 84 BYN (11.7%) compared to November and reached 801.6 BYN. And in January 2017, it fell by 10.1% and amounted to 720.7 BYN.

In October 2017, the average salary in the Republic of Belarus amounted to 841 BYN, that is, it is necessary to ensure an increase of 159 BYN, which is almost 2 times higher than the increase in December last year. But given the administrative resource and the increase in salaries in the public sector, this does not seem impossible.

It is important that, unlike the events of a year ago, at the beginning of 2018, salaries will not return to almost the same level. There will be directors of enterprises who will actually raise wages, and in the public sector, its increase, in fact, has already taken place. In this regard, the situation on the foreign exchange market of Belarus will seriously change.

There will be a shortage of foreign currency in the domestic market of the Republic of Belarus

The expected effect can be approximately estimated by the amount of "extra" funds that will be in the hands of the population. As for the public sector, this value is known - 1.2 billion BYN. Another 1.2 billion BYN will be added by pensioners and social benefits. The increase in wages in the non-budgetary sector can be estimated by the ratio of the number of employees in it to the number of state employees. We have about 850,000 of the latter, therefore, about 4.2 times more people work in the non-budgetary sphere (assuming that we officially employ 4.5 million people in total).

If we assume that the directors of enterprises will increase the salaries of employees to the same extent as in the public sector, then this will lead to an increase in the population's income for the year by about 5 billion BYN (by 14% - as for state employees). Together with state employees and pensioners, this will give approximately 7.4 billion BYN. The incomes of students and officially non-working individuals will also grow, but we will not take them into account.

Of course, a significant part of these funds will be neutralized by inflation, which is expected to reach 7% in 2018. That is, about half of the increase in the income of the population can be related. Approximately 3.7 billion BYN will remain.

Where will they go? Most likely, for the purchase of goods and foreign currency, since the rates on deposits, both in rubles and in foreign currency, make savings in banks unattractive. It is difficult to say in what proportion the funds will be divided, but given the low standard of living of the majority of Belarusians, one can expect an increase in demand for goods. And this will inevitably lead to an increase in imports, that is, to an increase in demand for foreign currency from enterprises. It is also difficult to say in what proportion the demand for goods is transformed into an increase in imports, but it is clear that it is significant, given the high share of imported goods in the domestic market of the Republic of Belarus, as well as a significant share of imported raw materials and energy carriers in the cost of goods produced in Belarus. If we approximately assume that each ruble will lead to an increase in imports by 50 kopecks, then it turns out that imports will increase by about 1.85 billion BYN, that is, in dollar terms, by about 0.9 billion USD.

But it should be borne in mind that we have another factor that will stimulate imports: a boom in the lending market, primarily consumer. As calculated in , this will lead to additional demand for the currency in the amount of about 0.6 billion USD (at least).

In total, this will ensure the emergence of additional demand for the currency in the amount of about 1.5 billion USD, which is likely to be slightly less than the net sale of foreign currency by the population this year. For 11 months, this is 1.8 billion USD, but in November net sales decreased to 64.9 million BYN, and in December they may become negative.

In principle, this is not yet a catastrophe, since until recently the foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus was approximately balanced, that is, the net supply of currency from the population was bought by commercial banks with the National Bank, paying off their foreign currency debts. That is, the excess of foreign currency this year did not put much pressure on the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, so the disappearance of this excess will not lead to the collapse of the ruble exchange rate.

But do not forget that in the above calculations, we focused on the minimum increase in wages, that is, its growth in reality may well turn out to be significantly higher, and additional demand for the currency will rise to 2 billion USD or even higher. In addition, enterprises and banks are well aware of the risks involved, so they will also want to save their savings by converting rubles into foreign currency.

Thus, in 2018, Belarus is very likely to experience a shortage of foreign currency in the domestic market, which will lead to an increase in demand for foreign currency from the population and enterprises, and an even greater increase in the deficit. The population may well turn from a net seller of currency into its net buyer, as it was before 2016. And this is serious.

If the inhabitants of the country start buying currencies at least as much as they sell, there will be a currency deficit in the amount of about 1.5-2 billion USD per year. And it will have to be compensated by reducing the volume of imports, which, following the above logic of the ratio of wage growth and imports, requires an increase in the dollar against the Belarusian ruble by about 10%. It is possible to increase by a large amount, although in this case, after the rapid growth of wages ceases, the exchange rate may decrease.

The above calculations are of a very approximate nature, but they allow us to assess the scale of the existing risks in the country's foreign exchange market associated with the planned increase in wages. There is no alternative to the weakening of the ruble, unless, of course, the Council of Ministers and the National Bank come up with ways to tie up the funds of the population. But this is something hard to believe.

In 2018, there will be significant changes in the country's foreign exchange market, but the authorities do not predict a significant adjustment in the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. In the budget for 2018, the Ministry of Finance laid the average annual rate of 2.0379 rubles per dollar. And what will the exchange rate of the national currency actually be in the coming year?

The foreign exchange market smelled of liberalization

Significant changes in the foreign exchange market of Belarus are planned for this year. The Main Directions of Monetary Policy, which the president signed a few hours before the New Year, say that in 2018 "the actions of the National Bank will be aimed at abolishing the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings and the targeted purchase of foreign currency in the domestic foreign exchange market."

This week, the National Bank has already published a decision on foreign exchange. Recall that for more than two decades, residents of Belarus (legal entities and individual entrepreneurs) had to use foreign currency purchased on the domestic market only for the purpose for which it was purchased within seven working days.

Moreover, the list of purposes for which foreign currency can be bought was limited in Belarus. In particular, enterprises were allowed to buy foreign currency to fulfill obligations to non-residents, but it was not allowed to purchase foreign currency to place it on deposit.

Also in Belarus for the last decades another anachronism has been preserved - the mandatory sale of part of the foreign exchange earnings.

The use of these administrative tools for regulating the foreign exchange market for many years was due to the fact that Belarus had high devaluation expectations until 2015, and the refusal to purchase targeted foreign currency could significantly increase the demand for it, and the abolition of the mandatory sale could reduce its supply.

The influence of both these factors could weaken the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, so for decades the authorities held on to administrative mechanisms for regulating the foreign exchange market.

Creditors of Belarus insist on their cancellation. By the way, in the same Russia there is neither a mandatory sale nor a targeted purchase of foreign currency.

The readiness of the National Bank to abandon the mandatory sale and targeted purchase of foreign currency in 2018 suggests that now there is no need for these “crutches” to maintain the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble.

“The targeted purchase of currency and its mandatory sale are the remnants of the old monetary policy that was carried out until 2014, when the ruble exchange rate was determined in an administrative way. Now we have a market exchange rate regime, so in these conditions there is no need to maintain the mandatory sale of currency or control over its purchase. ”, - noted in the comments for BelaPAN senior analyst at forex broker Forex Club Valery Polkhovsky.

The National Bank emphasizes that currency liberalization will benefit businesses.

“The abolition of restrictions on the targeted purchase of foreign currency ... will ensure greater freedom of entrepreneurial activity and will reduce the administrative costs of business entities associated with the need to apply to the National Bank for obtaining permits for the purchase of foreign currency for purposes not provided for by law, extending storage periods and changing the intended use purchased foreign currency,” the regulator said in a statement released this week.

Devaluation can not be afraid?

Under the current conditions, as financial analysts predict, the ongoing liberalization of the foreign exchange market will not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

“The liberalization of the foreign exchange market will not affect the dynamics of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate, since the situation today is fundamentally different than in 2014, when high devaluation expectations were observed in the country”- says Valery Polkhovsky.

At the same time, he notes that the abolition of the targeted purchase and mandatory sale of foreign currency is evidence of the authorities' readiness to pursue a responsible monetary policy.

“The possibility of using money emission to stimulate the economy will be almost completely excluded”, - believes Valery Polkhovsky.

Given the increased world oil prices, the expert predicts, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble in 2018 may be relatively stable.

“Against the background of relatively high rates, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble may stabilize around 55-60 rubles per dollar, so there should not be big fluctuations in the foreign exchange market of Belarus in 2018 either. By the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate may be approximately the same as it is now,”- says Valery Polkhovsky.

A similar opinion is shared by Belarusian bankers, who do not expect big shocks with the ruble exchange rate this year. In private conversations, bank officials note that their forecasts for this year do not imply a significant adjustment in the exchange rate.

Senior Analyst at Alpari Forex Broker Vadim Iosub also believes that nothing foreshadows a big devaluation yet.

“In recent years, the depreciation of the Belarusian ruble against a basket of foreign currencies has been comparable to changes in consumer prices. It is likely that this correlation will continue this year. There are no prerequisites for the devaluation of the ruble by tens of percent”, - says Vadim Iosub.

In his opinion, if the cross-rates of foreign currencies do not change significantly this year, then by the end of 2018 the rates will be approximately as follows: 2.15-2.20 rubles per dollar, 2.55-2.60 rubles per euro and 3.70-3.75 Belarusian rubles for 100 Russian rubles.

“At the same time, changes in cross-rates of foreign currencies on the world market can significantly affect the actual results that we will receive by the end of the year”, Vadim Iosub warns.

The expert draws attention to the fact that in 2017 the dollar exchange rate in Belarus remained practically unchanged, while the euro rose by more than 15%.

“Most likely, external factors will continue to have a decisive influence on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against foreign currencies in 2018”, - summed up the financial analyst.

Record low inflation - 4.6%. At the same time, the government almost managed to reach an average salary of 1,000 rubles. What will be the earnings of Belarusians in 2018? By how much will prices rise? And what exchange rate should Belarusians prepare for? Alpari Senior Analyst Vadim Iosub summed up the financial results for January and gave a forecast for the main indicators for the current year.

What will the dollar exchange rate be like?

In January, the dollar rose by 0.57% against the Belarusian ruble, the euro rose by 4.08%, the Russian ruble added 2.84%. The currency basket increased by 2.4% over the month. At first glance, it may seem that this is quite a bit, especially compared to the “shock” periods, when the growth was up to 50% within a month, the expert says. But there is an important point to be taken into account here. Vadim Iosub:

« The National Bank has set a goal for inflation to not exceed 6% this year. It is normal if the currency devalues ​​approximately in proportion to inflation, if it depreciates much faster, then this indicates some imbalance in the market. The fall of the Belarusian ruble by half a percent per month would be normal and natural».

As for the forecast for the year, by December the expert expects the dollar to rise to 2 rubles 10 kopecks, the euro - up to 2.60, and the Russian currency - 3.75 per 100 rubles. But this is subject to maintaining cross-rates at current levels. That is, if the euro against the dollar, for example, becomes cheaper, this will also affect their rates against the Belarusian ruble.

Inflation and average salaries: administrative resource decides a lot

According to Vadim Iosub, inflation by the end of the year will be slightly higher than the bar set by the National Bank - at the level of about 7%. The components for which prices are set administratively will have a decisive influence: public transport, housing and communal services tariffs, the expert says. Closely related to this is the level of average wages in the country.

« It is necessary to predict not what will happen to the country's economy, but whether the authorities will take any action to further increase wages, - says Vadim Iosub. - If the government completely abandons administrative measures, the economy has little chance of reaching the declared level of 1,000 rubles by the end of the year. Income growth will be proportional to GDP growth, which, according to my forecasts, will be about 2%, and not the 3.5% announced by the state. But even if we take into account the most optimal forecast, throw in 6-7% of inflation here, we will get an increase in income by about 10%.

The sharp increase in the average salary in December was due to quarterly and annual bonuses, as well as other accounting tricks, Vadim Iosub is convinced. According to his forecast, in January the average salary will roll back to the level of about 830 rubles.

Keeping money in Belarusian rubles is still the most profitable

Vadim Iosub advises to diversify your savings. About half can be kept in Belarusian rubles. And the best option, in his opinion, is a deposit.

It makes no sense to keep cash under the pillow, given the rates in rubles, which have already risen to 13%. The currency part can be divided between the dollar and the euro, says Vadim Iosub.

But the expert does not recommend investing in the Russian ruble. On the one hand, there is good potential due to rising oil prices. But it is worth considering the unpredictable political and sanctions risks.

Cryptocurrencies: a bubble that is slowly starting to deflate

The question of cryptocurrencies brings a smile to the face of Vadim Iosub. He suggests immediately considering that this is a typical "bubble". In his opinion, such a conclusion can be drawn from the change in prices and their dynamics of the most popular cryptocurrency - bitcoin. And do not confuse the concepts of "bubble" and "pyramid", says the expert. "Pyramid" is always a crime, a deception of gullible people. A “bubble” is a phenomenon that is characterized by a sharp rise in prices, and then often by an equally sharp drop. This is how people behave in the market. The “bubble” may be in the prices of oil, even tulips. And this does not characterize the product itself. And the situation with bitcoin quite claims to be included in textbooks on economics - as a typical example of a "bubble", says Vadim Iosub.

In the conditions of an unstable economic situation in the world and a crisis that has been going on for several years in a row, the government of any European state needs to know for sure how the situation with the US currency may develop in the future. Indeed, today the dollar is considered the basis of the entire world economy, therefore, even a slight fluctuation, from a negative point of view, is reflected in the overall picture of GDP development. In light of such a problem, it is very important to figure out exactly what the dollar exchange rate will be like in 2018, Belarus. Well, it's time to consider the forecasts regarding the topic raised.

Basic information

Today, we can say with confidence that the parliament of the noted republic has begun to deal with the issue of establishing its own economy with all seriousness. After all, you should be fully armed in any situation in order to continue to stay afloat. To do this, you will have to study the statements on the topic raised by experts and analysts in Belarus, and the information of independent users of well-known world departments. In fact, they all agree on one thing - in 2018, one should not be afraid of the devaluation of the ruble.

By and large, in order to determine an approximate estimate of the exchange rate of the American currency in the near future, you only need to operate with external conditions and indicators.

Internal factors have a positive effect on the state of the world currency in the country. True, for a start it is worth understanding the very concept of “internal factors”, and then understanding what exactly their influence is. The most significant factor of external origin is the cost of oil. In fact, its current state is largely considered to be decisive for the economy of any power. For example, if during the year the cost of black gold consolidates at the position of $35 per barrel, then in Belarus itself the exchange rate of this currency will be 2.21 local rubles. By the way, now the value of the dollar is 1.96 rubles.

Last news

According to Belarusian officials, their priority in the direction of primary political activity is the need for complete de-dollarization in the state. A terrible word, to be honest, but its essence is simple: by the end of 2018, the American currency should be completely excluded from calculations, the formation of duties, rates, prices, and other payments. To achieve this goal, the parliament of the republic agrees to take the most radical measures. It is very important to take the first steps towards increasing the availability of ruble funds. To do this, however, should take care of a significant reduction in the interest rate on lending in local currency. It is this list of proposals and wishes that is spelled out in the program of socio-economic development of Belarus until the end of this decade. By the way, this resolution has already passed the process of approval by the president.

Why is it necessary to abandon the dollar?

Despite the chosen policy of the country's officials, ordinary citizens do not fully understand such a need. Why, in fact, is this very de-dollarization needed right now? It turns out that there are several reasons for such a decision?

1. Increase the possibility of increasing the availability of loans in the national currency - rubles. If we assume that the approved program will already begin to produce the desired “fruits”, by the end of this year, loan rates will be 14-15%, while in 2019 they can drop to 9-11%. It should not be thought that such a process will take place very quickly. Not only is the fluctuation of interest rates in lending very smooth, we should not forget to take into account the calculation of inflation rates, which can reach the required minimum much faster. According to the forecasts of the National Bank, by 2020 the inflation rate will decrease by 5%, while the interest rates on loans will be several times higher than its mark.

2. Changes in the foreign exchange market. By the end of this year, a gradual abolition of the sale of foreign exchange earnings to experts should be carried out, which is still considered a mandatory procedure. It is during this period that the need for a targeted purchase of the American currency will be completely abolished, so that by 2020 the government of the state will be able to remove any restrictions on the possibility of opening accounts in foreign banks.

3. Ensuring high dynamics of bank savings income. This trend directly depends on the reduction of lending rates. Analysts in the field of economics have established that the development of the financial market of the Republic of Belarus is primarily focused on creating attractive conditions for investing money savings. For the economy of the state, all this looks like this - it is necessary to provide the declared area with more accessible sources of funding. At the same time, in order to achieve this goal, attention will have to be paid to the creation of special investment funds, as well as a certain system that is used as the basis for building and housing savings.

4. Formation and further development of the bond and stock market. A completely logical question immediately arises: will the newly created state tools for the common people turn out to be profitable, while providing an acceptable level of profitability? There is no exact answer yet. That is why most experts are sure that in some 5 years Belarusians will be able to use only bank bonds and deposits as the most successful source of saving their own savings.

In conclusion, it only remains to add that even now the government of Belarus is doing everything in its power to stabilize the current situation in the country, which, by the way, was due to the jump of that same dollar. At the same time, one has to take into account the facts, how exactly such a situation can affect the people of the republic, for the sake of which various steps are being considered. Therefore, it is almost impossible to say exactly what the dollar exchange rate will be in 2018 in this power. Time will tell.