Why should the meeting between Walker and Surkov upset Putin? The Russian president’s problem is that he has protracted two conflicts that he is unable to win. Secret meeting between Surkov and Volker. “Most disagreements are recognized as surmountable

Today there was a meeting between US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker and Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov.

Negotiations were announced in a “check-the-clock” format. But, according to Vesti, it was of a more serious nature.

The conversation between diplomats took place in Belgrade. EU sanctions against Surkov are cited as official justifications for why in Serbia. But this version should not be taken seriously.

A year ago, despite these same sanctions, Putin’s adviser came with the Russian President to a meeting of the Normandy Four in Germany. Moreover, then Surkov sat at the table to the right of German Foreign Minister Steinmeier, who included him on the sanctions list.

The unspoken reason for choosing Serbia as a meeting place in Russian political circles is considered to be Putin’s lobbying of the President of the Republic, Aleksandar Vucic. The fact is that the heads of Russia and Serbia have good friendly relations. After being elected to office in May of this year, Vucic even suggested that the Russian President organize a meeting with Donald Trump in Serbia. But later, let us remember, they met in Hamburg, at the G20 summit.

Accordingly, it is possible that it was decided to begin Serbia’s advancement in the big political arena with today’s meeting.

Where exactly in Belgrade the conversation between Surkov and Volker took place, how long they discussed - this information is not disclosed. The negotiations were completely closed, without even a symbolic five-minute briefing after the dialogue.

Ahead of the meeting, on Friday, Volker said: “The assertion that Russia commands and controls the armed forces in eastern Ukraine is beyond any doubt today.” At the time of publication of the material, he had not made a comment on the reasons for the Belgrade meeting.

Surkov commented on the dialogue with Volker. “The draft UN resolution on Donbass proposed by Russia was discussed. Mutual understanding was found on a number of positions. Most of the identified differences were recognized as surmountable,” Putin’s adviser noted, adding that the negotiations were constructive.

Translated from diplomatic language, his words can mean the following: the point was that it was the Russian, and not the Ukrainian, version of the resolution on the deployment of peacekeepers that was included on the agenda of the UN Security Council, and also that the United States, which has the right of veto, did not use it.

Let us remind you that at the moment two mutually exclusive versions have been put forward about what rights the peacekeeping contingent in Donbass should have. In the plan promoted by the Ukrainian government, peacekeepers operate throughout the uncontrolled territory, right up to the border with the Russian Federation, and monitor military and civilian aspects of life. The key difference between the Russian version: the peacekeepers are located along the demarcation line between the Ukrainian military and militants. And their rights are proposed to be limited by ensuring the safety of OSCE observers, which causes resistance on the Ukrainian side.

The Assistant to the President and the Special Representative of the United States State Department for Ukraine will hold talks in Dubai. Volcker previously said he was not optimistic

Kurt Walker. Photo: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Kurt Volker and Vladislav Surkov will meet in Dubai on January 26. Earlier, the State Department's special representative for Ukraine said: it cannot be said that he is optimistic.

The last time Volker and Surkov discussed the situation in Donbass was in November 2017 in Belgrade. Since then, a significant event has occurred: the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on the reintegration of the conflict region. Russia is named an aggressor country in the document, and mention of the Minsk agreements disappeared from the final text. In addition, the law gives the president the right to use armed forces within the country without the consent of parliament.

What could be the outcome of the meeting between Volcker and Surkov? Opinion of the head of the Ukrainian center “Third Sector” Andrey Zolotarev:

Andrey ZolotarevHead of the Ukrainian Center "Third Sector"“Now no one will say when the leaders in the Normandy Format will gather again, and the mandate for negotiations was transferred to Volker and Surkov - as for me, after all, second-tier officials. This means that, in fact, by default the authorities set a course for separating Donbass. And this conclusion can be drawn not only from the adoption of the law on reintegration, which in a number of ways contradicts the Minsk process, but also from what was done last year: the trade blockade; refusal to pay pensions, despite the fact that even the American Ambassador, Mrs. Mary Yovanovitch, demanded the resumption of social payments in the uncontrolled territories; further, the desire to legislatively establish the degree of responsibility of the DPR and LPR for collaboration; the adoption of a number of humanitarian laws aimed at discriminating against the inhabitants of this territory - all of this together does not give optimism about the situation. And Volcker’s statement that he, too, is going to Dubai for negotiations without optimism, says: most likely, the parties have nowhere to rush. The conflict, apparently, will be frozen.”

At the end of the year, the American Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman told Vedomosti that he did not see significant progress in the situation in Ukraine. However, he added that this is perhaps the only issue that can breathe new life into relations between Moscow and Washington.

In light of this position, how can one evaluate the meeting between the State Department representative and the Russian President’s assistant? Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia, commented on the situation.

Bogdan BezpalkoMember of the Council for Interethnic Relations under the President of Russia“If the Americans wanted to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and Donbass, they would agree with the option of deploying UN peacekeepers along the demarcation line. They would put pressure on Kyiv to force Kyiv to implement the already signed Minsk agreements. I do not see any obstacles to somehow achieving peace without meetings with Surkov and within the framework of the already existing Minsk-2 agreements, which was registered with the UN and approved by the United Nations as a document promoting peace in Donbass. So, if we are talking about something here, it is obvious that it will be about some other compromises that go beyond the scope of Minsk-2 or some kind of international agreements between Russia and Ukraine.”

The day before, Kurt Volker said that the reintegration of Donbass should become the basis of a UN Security Council resolution. He added that reintegration is part of the Minsk agreements.

US State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker commented on the meeting with Russian Presidential Aide Vladislav Surkov that took place on August 21 in Minsk. The Dozhd TV channel published a long interview with Volker. Federal channels and news agencies ignored Volker’s statements, which demonstrate the prospects for the development of the situation in Donbass

Related materials

On August 21, the first meeting between Assistant to the President of Russia Vladislav Surkov and Special Representative of the US State Department for Ukraine Kurt Volker took place in Minsk, closed to the press.

After the meeting, a short comment from Surkov was circulated that the parties “exchanged innovative approaches” to implementing the Minsk agreements.

“We agreed that the peace process both on the political track and in the security sphere can and should move faster,” Interfax quotes Surkov as saying. The presidential aide noted that during the negotiations, topics for the next meeting were identified.

“The commitment to the Minsk agreements was not questioned: both sides proposed fresh ideas and innovative approaches to their implementation,” RIA Novosti quotes Surkov.

On August 24, the Dozhd TV channel published an exclusive interview with Kurt Volker, in which he spoke about the topics raised at the meeting with Surkov. According to Volker, the question was raised about the return of Donbass to the jurisdiction of Ukraine and the withdrawal of “Russian” troops from the region.

None of the state channels mentioned this interview. There is also no mention of any of Volcker’s statements on the news feeds of RIA Novosti and Interfax. TASS limited itself to a brief, uninformative report about the interview.

Special Representative of the State Department Kurt Volker is pleased with the meeting with Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov, which took place on August 21 in Minsk. He stated this in an interview with the Dozhd TV channel, the agency reported.

“I also had a positive impression from our meeting. It was a serious and frank conversation. We had some disagreements. Everything was fair and open,” Volker said.

But all news agencies reported in detail the caustic ridicule of Russian Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova about the mistake of White House press secretary Heather Nauert, who stated that the meeting between Volcker and Surkov took place in Lithuania, and not in Minsk.

“The meeting, naturally, took place in Minsk,” Zakharova said. “We detect a strange pattern - our American colleagues constantly experience some kind of topographical problems when it comes to Belarus.”

Zakharova called the situation “miracles” when the State Department “does not know where their special representative Volker is going to meet with Surkov.”

Zakharova did not say anything about the meeting itself and the topics that were discussed.

In an interview with Dozhd, Volker made several very important statements, which he presented as a kind of common view of both negotiators on the situation in Donbass. The Red Line editors present to readers the most complete excerpt of quotes from an interview with Kurt Volker.

According to Volker, the parties agreed to “find a way out of the situation.”

“We have come to a consensus that the status quo will not bring anything good to anyone,” the State Department special envoy said. - This is bad for Russia, and for Ukraine, and for the residents of Donbass. We need to find a way out of this situation. This is turning into a tragedy for people. 10,000 people were killed, millions were forced from their homes, and young Russian soldiers died in the war in Ukraine. This is absolutely unacceptable. We agreed that we would find a way out of this situation.”

According to him, the parties came to the conclusion that the security aspect, as well as the political aspect, is of great importance in the situation in Ukraine.

“We also agreed that the security aspect is important here, as well as the political aspect,” Volker said. - At the moment, the Minsk process does not solve this problem. Of course, it is necessary and it is very important. Eventually we will be able to take advantage of this. But now we need to increase the level of security and provide Ukraine with such conditions so that it can defend its territory. She can't do this now. It is necessary to clearly understand that there are Russian troops in the Donbass, in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. There are military vehicles and equipment there. The problem is that the presence of military equipment there creates conflict.”

According to Volker, “Russia’s interest will destabilize the situation.”

“According to official OSCE reports, the majority of ceasefire violations come from the Russian side,” Volker said. - Not all, but most of it. Russia’s interest will destabilize the situation.”

Volker recalled that Russia “must return these territories.”

“We need to create conditions for a real ceasefire,” the special representative said. - I know that the Normandy Four are now also discussing this issue and proposing to establish a ceasefire again. This will be a great first step towards resolving the conflict. Ultimately, Russia recognizes that, according to the Minsk agreements, these territories must be returned to Ukraine, they must again become part of Ukraine and not be occupied territory. In order for this to happen, it is necessary to withdraw Russian troops from there and provide people with security so that they feel confident. If they feel vulnerable now, that's exactly what we need to work on. How can we provide security and thus have a political process that will allow us to achieve special status and allow elections to take place.”

Kurt Volker believes that it is possible to end the conflict in Donbass within a few months.

“If Russia shows readiness to solve problems, and we, for our part, are also ready for this, I am sure that everything can be resolved in a few months. I don't think it will be difficult to implement. The difficulty is making a decision. I think that literally within a few months we will see whether there is progress or not,” he said.

According to Volker, ending the war in Donbass is the main, but not the only requirement for improving US-Russian relations.

“In Hamburg, President Trump told President Putin that we cannot strengthen or improve US-Russian relations until the conflict in Ukraine is resolved. This makes it difficult to establish bilateral relations. For Trump, the conflict in Ukraine is one of the main obstacles to improving relations between the United States and Russia. Of course, this is not the only problem,” the special representative said.

Volker noted that there are “a lot of difficulties in relations between the United States and Russia now”: reduction of diplomatic personnel, deprivation of the United States of diplomatic property, violation of the terms of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Agreement, conflicts in Syria, North Korea and, of course, Ukraine.

According to Volker, “Russian intervention” led to Ukraine leaving Moscow’s sphere of influence, becoming a pro-Western state.

“If I were in Moscow and building Russia’s political course, I would strive to ensure that Ukraine was part of the Russian sphere of influence, the main partner. But Russia at some point decided that it was necessary to send troops into Ukraine. Today the Russian Federation controls the separatists. This has led to Ukraine becoming more united, more pro-Western than before. This is not very good for Russia,” he said.

Volker believes that all that is needed to end the war is political will.

“Are we going to solve this problem or not? If we are going to, then we can use the Minsk process for this. But first we need to develop a decision-making system. Now we don’t have this, so the Normandy format does not give the expected result,” Volker said.

Political scientists and experts discuss what yesterday's meeting in Belgrade between Putin's assistant and the special representative of the State Department was like

Vladislav Surkov said that out of 29 American proposals conveyed to him by Kurt Volker, Russia is ready to discuss three.

“American friends submitted their proposals to our draft Security Council resolution - twenty-nine paragraphs. Our delegation considered three of them acceptable. A little, of course. But still, three is not zero. Better than zero.

Representatives of Russia and the United States agree on the main thing - the Minsk agreements must be implemented. To do this, it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of Kyiv’s political obligations while simultaneously strengthening security in the conflict zone,” Surkov reported on the results of the meeting.

Ukraina.ru asked a Ukrainian expert, as well as representatives of the DPR and LPR to comment on the results of yesterday’s negotiations in Belgrade.

Russia's tough position

Rodion Miroshnik, the LPR representative at the negotiations in Minsk, believes that Russia’s position at this meeting was quite tough.

“The idea that Kyiv is pursuing, and which is partly supported by the United States, to take the Russian resolution as a basis and completely emasculate and replace what is presented there with its own provisions, is doomed to failure.

All this was shown by the current meeting, which took place in Belgrade, when out of 29 American proposals, most of which were clearly developed in the administration of the President of Ukraine on Bankova. Volker was simply used by the latter as a courier.

The harshness of Russia’s position was as follows: it will not be possible to change the main task of the UN mission. Moscow will not agree to this,” says Miroshnik.

Russia, the LPR representative recalls, saw the UN mission not as a peacekeeping mission, but as a security one - that is, aimed at ensuring the safety of international observers of the OSCE SMM.

“What's the point? The OSCE SMM has consistently complained that its monitors, who have given up their service weapons and mission weapons, are at risk. This is why the Russian side proposed to entrust the protection of OSCE monitors to the UN mission. We started talking about this in the spring of this year, then again after some time we returned to this topic.

This was necessary so that the OSCE SMM could carry out full-fledged round-the-clock monitoring of actions on the dividing line. This is the main key task that was set for the resolution that was introduced by the Russian Federation,” recalls Miroshnik.

© RIA Novosti, Sergey Averin | Go to photobank

He believes that Kyiv immediately distorted it: there were proposals to transfer control of the border, and that the peacekeeping mission itself should consist of tens of thousands of troops, and that it should be armed with heavy weapons.

Miroshnik has no doubt that the American and Russian sides are committed to moving forward.

“Today there is a certain deadlock in the Minsk and Normandy formats. Therefore, the negotiation process between the United States and Russia is the main channel that can move the stalled negotiations forward. Both sides are interested in their promotion.

Therefore, Mr. Surkov’s statement or comment “Three is better than zero” speaks for itself. The position of the Russian Federation does not change - it remains tough. The United States is forced to look for compromise approaches that Russia will agree to discuss. At the moment, it is not yet a fact that the three American proposals mentioned above have definitely been accepted. They are accepted for discussion purposes only.

And the statement that there will be another meeting before the end of the year indicates the dynamism of the negotiations, and that both sides are determined to achieve a certain result (hence the number of meetings). The parties will arrive at the next meeting with some ready-made positions that were discussed yesterday in Belgrade,” Miroshnik predicts.

The Path to the Big Deal

Ukrainian political scientist Andrei Mishin is skeptical about the information regarding the latest negotiations between Surkov and Volker, which appeared in the media, and does not believe that it is possible to predict anything based on it about how the parties agreed to resolve the issue of UN peacekeepers.

“We still don’t understand how negotiators work. No real information that is conducted at the negotiating table can leave the boundaries of the negotiation room. What turns out, as a rule, is just misinformation from one of the interested parties, but, in fact, everything is different.

The only thing I would advise is that all these contacts between Americans and Russians need to be looked at more broadly. After all, it is obvious, no matter how ironic this view may be, but now everything is moving not just towards global agreements on Donbass, but also towards a Big Deal and the formation of a new world order, no matter how they say that now all this is impossible. Neither Trump nor Putin can say all this out loud.

So I look at Surkov’s negotiations with Volker from the point of view of moderate optimism: the settlement process for Donbass is still underway. Since special people have been allocated for consultations, it means that they are important for Russia and the United States,” Mishin has no doubt.

© press service of the President of Ukraine

According to Mishin, today European figures are excluded from real negotiations regarding Donbass. Alas, Ukraine is also excluded from real negotiations. Now Donbass is dealt with by the main regional player, Russia, and the main global player, America.

“We, Ukrainians, are told by the governments of these countries what has already been decided regarding our fate and the fate of Donbass.

In Ukraine, many people think that when Volker talks about UN peacekeepers throughout certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and on the border with Russia, then this is the final position. However, it is not. This is simply a position from which to start bargaining. We’ll see how it actually turns out in the end,” Mishin is sure.

Americans are ready for dialogue with Russia

Advisor to the head of the DPR, Alexander Kazakov, also commented on the results of the meeting to Ukraina.ru.

First of all, he focused on why so little information got to the press.

“Point one, we can’t talk about results, because there are no results. This is another stop on a long journey. Point two, information, as from previous meetings, is given a minimum amount. And that's probably a good thing. At one time I advised negotiators with Japan on the Kuril Islands issue and advised to close information from journalists about what they are talking about, since if information leaks to the public, then a huge mass of aggressive journalists, experts and the public will flood your negotiations. So I think the closed nature of Surkov’s consultations with Volker is absolutely correct.”

According to Kazakov, several conclusions can be drawn from this meeting.

“Kyiv is excluded as a subject of international politics from the negotiation process. Therefore, when Klimkin or someone else from the Ukrainian government arrogantly says: our resolution with the Americans and Germans... Kyiv has no subjectivity or initiative in the issue of settlement in Donbass. The Americans told them: work within the Russian resolution on peacekeepers, and they complied. The Americans themselves are working within the Russian resolution.

It’s just that if an Anglo-French, for example, draft resolution appears, then there will be mutual vetoing of the resolutions, and the conversation will end there. And if the Minsk format does not work, then the door opens for the resumption of a full-scale conflict. Surkov confirmed that the Americans are working on the Russian draft resolution,” states Kazakov.

The adviser to the head of the DPR believes that since the meeting in Belgrade lasted only a few hours, its efficiency is rather low.

“This suggests that the positions are still very different from each other. And here we can summarize what we know. First, the Americans are working on a Russian project. Secondly, the Americans do not allow this process to interfere with the wheels. Third, the Americans do not support European initiatives with which they could enter the UN Security Council. That is, the Americans are ready to conduct a dialogue on the issue of settlement in Donbass. Moreover, the dialogue is substantive and presupposes some kind of result,” Kazakov has no doubt.

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