Why is Iran in Syria? Israel, Iranian formations in Syria and the Syrian army launch mutual missile strikes (!). Yemen: Saudi army showed its low level

Growing tensions between Iran and Israel and the increasing strength of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) missile and bomb strikes against Iranian facilities and bases in Syria have put Moscow in an extremely unpleasant situation. Russian policy in the Middle East has recently been based on a simultaneous balanced partnership with both Iran and Israel. Moscow has managed to occupy a unique position in the region, maintaining close ties with ardent opponents: Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey and Egypt, the Kurds and their many opponents, Iranians and Arabs, and so on. But at the same time, it did not succeed in becoming a true regional arbiter and seriously ousting the United States - the gap in military-technical, financial and logistical capabilities between the Russian Federation and the United States is too large. Now, when two Russian "partners" - Iran and Israel are ready to seriously cling to each other, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to maintain a balanced position between them.

Vladimir Putin at the Khmeimim air base in Syria. 2017 Photo: Mikhail Klimentiev / Kremlin press service / TASS

Russia sent troops to Syria in September 2015 at the request of the authorities of Damascus and Tehran to jointly suppress the Syrian opposition and radical Islamists by force. At first it was announced that this would be a purely air campaign, but the VKS alone failed to complete the task, and special operations forces, military police from the Muslim republics were sent to Syria, mercenary volunteers and all sorts of specialist advisers went to strengthen the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) of President Bashar Assad. Even taking into account the total contingent of forces in Syria, somewhere less than 10 thousand people remained.

The real occupation of Syria, even on a temporary basis, was clearly never seriously considered. I really did not want a repetition of the Afghan nightmare of the 80s, there are neither resources nor ambitions for that.

Moscow is quite content with a limited presence on the Mediterranean coast of Syria. We need a friendly regime in Damascus to guarantee this presence.

The old Soviet naval supply point in Tartus, where a floating workshop used to be idle, has now become a naval base, where two new submarines and other warships of the Mediterranean squadron are now deployed on a permanent basis under the name: "Permanent Operational Task Force of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea." Project 636.3 diesel-electric submarines B-268 "Veliky Novgorod" and B-271 "Kolpino", armed with Caliber cruise missiles, are assigned to the Black Sea Fleet, but so far they have not reached it, but remained based in Tartus. Aerospace Forces at a base in nearby Khmeimim are now bombing Assad’s opponents and all kinds of Islamists, but their main task is to support and cover the “navy task force” in the Eastern Mediterranean in confrontation with the US Navy and its NATO allies.

Pro-Iranian forces (Shiite militias) were also brought into Syria to save Assad and defeat the Sunni rebels, but Iran's further strategic goals are more ambitious. The total number of Iranian forces in Syria is over 80 thousand people. These are commanders and specialists from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, mercenary volunteers from Afghanistan (Hazaras) and Iraq. The IRGC is deploying military bases everywhere and allegedly plans to resettle Shiite volunteers in Syria to change the ethno-religious composition of the population.

The Russian presence in Syria is not seen in Israel as a threat to national interests. Last December, Chairman of the Knesset Committee on Foreign Affairs and Security from the ruling Likud, Avi Dichter, a former commando and counterintelligence officer, director of the Shin Bet (Israeli FSB), Minister of Internal Security and Minister of Home Front Protection, said during a visit to Moscow: Russia is not our enemy, we do not see any problems with its military presence in Syria.”

"Since Russia is a 'superpower and our ally' has made a strategic decision to have a presence in the Mediterranean," Dichter added, "welcome."

But the IDF will not tolerate Iranians in Syria.

Russian weapons and advisers helped restore Syrian air defense capabilities, and Moscow promised to send more missiles, including S-300s, after the April 14 US-British-French missile attack. Under the cover of the Syrian air defense umbrella, the Iranians will be able to deploy operational-tactical missiles of their own production (using North Korean technologies), covering the entire territory of Israel in range. The uncompromising struggle “against Zionism” is one of the main ideological foundations of the Iranian regime and, at the same time, a completely pragmatic populist policy of winning the sympathy of the Sunni masses in a region where Shia Persians have never been particularly popular. Iran sees itself, and not Russia at all, as the dominant force in the region after the US has been ousted or its role weakened, and confrontation with Israel is a way to achieve what it is looking for.

In April alone, strikes (presumably) by the IDF destroyed several Iranian bases in Syria. Several dozen specialists and heads of the IRGC and the Syrian military were killed.

Moscow protested loudly after the US and allied strike on April 14, when no one was killed, but little was said about the IDF strikes.

President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Russian and Israeli general staffs and chiefs of military intelligence maintain regular contacts, but it is not clear how long this idyll will last.

Israel has released captured documents that seem to indicate that Iran's nuclear missile program was much more advanced than previously thought. Donald Trump promised that after May 12 he would revise the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, aka the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Putin insists that the JCPOA "should be strictly observed by all parties."

Tehran promised to resume the nuclear program if Trump abandons the JCPOA, and also promised to take revenge on the Jews for the attacks on the IRGC bases in Syria.

Soviet air defense combat units were first deployed in Syria when the Americans landed in Lebanon in 1982. The IDF then avoided direct combat clashes with our military, but they did not hesitate to fight with the SAA, which included many (as it is now) of our advisers and specialists. Hundreds of Soviet officers were killed or wounded fighting the IDF in Syria and Lebanon, including three generals who died. Today, the IDF on its own, without the United States or other allies, is unlikely to strike deep into the territory of Iran at the facilities of the nuclear missile industry in the foreseeable future, but strikes will continue on the advanced facilities of the IRGC (and SAA) in Syria.

Russian advisers and specialists may again come under fire, and then it is not clear what to do? How to classify the losses of the last time for 20 years or publicly announce everything and get involved in a direct military conflict with Israel?

Israel is fine with Assad in Damascus and the Russians in Syria if they control Assad and nullify the Iranian threat at the same time. But neither Assad nor the IRGC is outside the Kremlin's control, and the policy of close partnership with Jews commonly associated with Putin is unpopular in Russian military and diplomatic circles. The Russian General Staff understands that without pro-Iranian fighters and Iranian petrodollars, the Assad regime will quickly and inevitably collapse, and no air forces will help, and the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, which cost so much, will be lost. The IDF is traditionally viewed as a pro-American force, and the current partnership with the Jews as a temporary whim of the authorities. Like, if the Pentagon is emphatically wary of direct clashes with ours in Syria, then the IDF will beware if they show firmness.

But for Washington, nothing in Syria is of vital interest, and for Israel, the question of the existence of the country and the people is being decided. In combat readiness and military-technical, the IDF is far superior to the Aerospace Forces, the SAA, and the IRGC combined in Syria, at sea, on land and in the air. The Israeli General Staff is confident in their own abilities.

One thing is good so far: in future possible Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Jewish clashes, the use of nuclear weapons by the parties is not seriously considered.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is determined to continue protecting Iran's interests in Syria. Reuters photo

The atmosphere in the Syrian alliance of Russia, Turkey and Iran is becoming increasingly tense. Tehran responded to the call of the Russian leadership to withdraw the entire foreign contingent from the territory of the Arab Republic, recalling that they are there at the official invitation of Damascus. In the expert community, the exchange of such statements is called evidence of a possible bargaining between Moscow and Washington over Syria. So, one of the requirements of the United States to Russia could be pressure on Iran.

"No one can force Iran to do anything," Islamic Republic Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi said. According to the diplomat, Iranian forces are present in the country in conflict at the invitation of the government, which has asked for help "in the fight against terrorism and in the defense of territorial integrity." Qasemi added that the involvement of the Iranian side in the Syrian conflict "will last as long as the Syrian government needs Iran's help." Recall that Tehran did not recognize the participation of its regular formations in the hostilities in Syria. According to the Iranian authorities, only their advisers are in the Arab Republic.

Last week, after talks with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “We proceed from the fact that in connection with the significant victories and success of the Syrian army in the fight against terrorism, with the start of a more active part, with the start of the political process in its in a more active phase, foreign armed forces will be withdrawn from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.”

Explaining Putin's words about the withdrawal of troops, his special representative for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, expressed his conviction that "everything should be done in a complex." Moscow's appeal, he said, is addressed to all foreign participants in the conflict. “This includes the Americans, and the Turks, and Hezbollah, of course, and the Iranians,” RIA Novosti quotes the special representative of RIA Novosti, noting that we are not talking about the Russian contingent.

The expert community sees in the exchange of such statements a sign of tension between Russia, Turkey and Iran - the guarantors of the Syrian truce agreed in Kazakhstan. “Moments like this have surfaced before in the course of the Astana process,” Anton Mardasov, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs, reminded NG. - However, due to common goals, they were smoothed out in every possible way. Now that Damascus practically controls the entire territory that is not delimited by de-escalation zones, the question arises of post-conflict management of these territories and of reaching compromises with external parties that control the remaining zones. It is clear that in the dialogue with the West, the issue of the Iranian presence emerges. It is possible that Russian representatives are negotiating with the Americans so that they reduce their presence in Syria and solve the problem of the Kurdish protectorate. This may happen, but probably in exchange for reducing the Iranian presence in Syria. I have this suspicion." Bargaining, according to the expert, can be conducted by the Russian Federation not only with America, but also with the countries of the Persian Gulf.

The analyst believes that some kind of compromise between the Russian Federation and the West regarding the Iranian formations was previously indicated by the agreements concluded in Jordan and concerning the south of Syria. “Russia should, apparently, influence Iran, but this did not happen,” Mardasov said. “These statements (of the Russian authorities. – NG) are most likely fulfilling political goals against the backdrop of negotiations with some external parties that may promise something when a political solution is reached.” At the same time, Russia can be expected not only to put pressure on Iran, but also to include the Syrian opposition in the negotiations, the expert says. However, according to Mardasov, it is pointless to demand from Iran a complete withdrawal of forces from Syria: “Tehran will still remain through many different local groups sponsored by it. The Iranian presence may be reduced, but Tehran's troops are not going anywhere." Russia, according to the analyst, has tools to put pressure on Iran. “This is Israel,” says Mardasov. “Therefore, the strikes of the Jewish state on Syria are very beneficial for Russia.”

Israel on Thursday morning attacked dozens of Iranian military installations in Syria in retaliation for rocket fire on army positions in the Golan Heights. The Israeli army reported that they had informed Russia about the strikes. The Russian Foreign Ministry is silent. It is reported by TASS

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"The Israel Defense Forces attacked dozens of military installations belonging to the Iranian Quds forces in Syria," the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement. - As part of a large-scale attack, Iranian intelligence positions in Syria, which are controlled by Al-Quds forces, were attacked; Al-Quds headquarters; military and logistics complexes of the Al-Quds forces; an Iranian military camp north of Damascus; Al-Quds weapons depots at Damascus International Airport; intelligent systems and installations associated with the Al-Quds forces; military posts and observation posts in the buffer zone”. “In addition, there were strikes on an Iranian launcher, from which rockets were fired at Israel,” the military continued.

The army press service also indicated that "the Israeli Air Force attacked Syrian air defense installations that fired despite an Israeli warning." "All of our aircraft have safely returned to their bases," the military added.

"The nighttime strikes were carried out following a rocket attack launched by Iranian forces on the forward positions of the Israel Defense Forces in the Golan Heights," the army press service noted, adding that "no casualties or destruction were identified on Israeli territory."

In turn, the official representative of the country's Defense Army, Jonathan Conricus, told reporters that Israel had informed Russia before striking.

“Israel briefed Russia ahead of the strikes in Syria,” he said. “The Russians were warned before the attack through the existing deconfliction mechanism.” Since 2015, a coordination mechanism has been established between the military of Israel and the Russian Federation to prevent clashes in Syria.

"Israel is not interested in further escalation of the conflict and calls on Iran to refrain from strikes," he said. The army press service emphasized that "Iranian aggression is another proof of the true intentions behind the strengthening of the Iranian regime in Syria and the threat that this poses to the State of Israel and the stability of the region."

“The army will not allow Iran to gain a foothold in Syria, the Syrian regime will be held responsible for everything that happens on its territory,” the military continued. “The IDF is ready for a lot of scenarios, as long as the aggression continues to threaten Israeli sovereignty and the citizens of Israel, the army will respond forcefully with determination.”

The Syrian SANA agency reported that the Syrian Air Defense Forces successfully repulse missile attacks that the Israeli Air Force inflicts from the territory of the occupied Golan Heights. According to the agency's military source, the Syrian air defenses, "responding to hostile Israeli missile strikes," have already shot down "dozens" of missiles. However, some of them, as the interlocutor of the agency pointed out, nevertheless hit the target and, in particular, destroyed one of the radar stations.

Belonging to Syria since 1944, the Golan was captured by Israel during the Six Day War in 1967. In 1981, the Knesset (Israel's parliament) passed the law "On the Golan Heights", which unilaterally proclaimed the sovereignty of the Jewish state over this territory. The annexation was declared illegal by UN Security Council Resolution 497 of December 17, 1981.

Journalist Borzu Daragahi(Borzou Daragahi), about the difficult situation currently in Syria. We offer its translation from English, as well as the point of view of a popular French blogger on what is happening. Allen Jules (AllainJules).

The body of Hamid Rezaee was brought in the last batch of Iranian soldiers killed in Syria. He was reportedly killed in an Israeli missile attack on the T4 air base near Homs. He was a 30-year-old native of Tehran, a pious young man, his father was also a soldier, his little daughter Hamida was left an orphan. At Rezai's funeral in late April, a weeping mother said she didn't talk him out of leaving to fight in Syria. According to a publication in Mashraig News, she stated, "It offends me when people ask why you didn't stop him? My son chose his own path."

Rezaei is one of 2,000 Iranians who have died in Syria since Tehran began sending troops and vast resources into the country to protect power Bashar al-Assad. Israel is insisting that Russia and other international players force Iran to leave Syria, threatening to launch new strikes against Iranian positions both near its border in the Golan Heights and inside the country. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the withdrawal of Iranian troops from Syria as one of 12 conditions for the lifting of sanctions, after the administration Trump abandoned the nuclear deal.

But Iranian officials and other experts say the country has invested too much blood and money to succumb to international demands, and it won't be affected by Israeli airstrikes or even pressure from Moscow. By making this massive investment, Iran intends to take advantage of the potential long-term strategic advantages that Syria has to offer, even if it costs even more lives and money in the short term.

“I don’t think Iran is ready to give up its presence in Syria, — said the editor of a leading news outlet in Tehran, who spoke on foreign policy on condition of anonymity. — This gives Iran good leverage over Israel. Territory is very important, and Iran manages territory very skillfully, and the Russians are weak in this regard. Whoever controls the earth does not take seriously those who do not."

Iran insists that it is in Syria by agreement with Damascus and stays only at its request. "Iran will maintain its presence in Syria and will contribute to the Syrian government as long as necessary as long as terrorism exists and as long as the Syrian government wants us to do so," the BBC said. Bahram Kassimi, representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran.

In an interview with Russian television, Assad said that there have never been Iranian troops in Syria. “We have Iranian officers who are working to help the Syrian army,” he said. “But they don’t have troops here.”

Iran, along with its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, immediately intervened in Syria to protect a government that had been its staunch ally back when most of the world had already written off Assad as another victim of the Arab Spring. Over the past seven years, Iranian investments in Syria have amounted to many billions of dollars, both in military and economic programs, which are sometimes intertwined. Iran is recruiting and training militias from across the Middle East and South Asia, sending them to Syria, providing for the families of the dead.

According to calculations Mansour Farhanga, American scientist and former Iranian diplomat, Iran has spent at least $30 billion on military and economic aid to Syria. Ratings Nadima Shehadi, a Middle East scholar at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, is even higher: $15 billion a year and about $105 billion. But here it should be noted that the order of numbers can be deliberately politically biased at a time of instability in Iran, when the Iranians demand strict accountability and fiscal transparency in their country.

Farhang believes that "they have made so many economic and political investments that it is very difficult for them to pick up their luggage and go home."

According to Navara Olivera, a military researcher at the Omran Strategic Research Center (Istanbul), Iranian troops currently operate from 11 bases across the country. There are also 9 military bases for pro-Iranian Shiite fighters south of Aleppo, in Homs and Deir ez-Zor. There are also about 15 Hezbollah bases and observation posts, mostly along the Lebanese border and in Aleppo.

Military analysts said Russia is pressuring Iran to remove troops and militias from southern Syria to Deir ez-Zor, west of the Euphrates River. But the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would strike at any attempt by Iran to establish itself militarily in the country "not only near the Golan Heights, but anywhere in Syria." Former Israeli envoy to the UN Dore Gold insists that Netanyahu did not speak in a figurative sense, he directly meant the whole country. “From a purely military standpoint, Israel wants Iran out of Syria,” said Gold, now director of the Jerusalem Think Tank.

But Iran's involvement in Syria goes beyond a conventional military presence, and it has already begun planting the seeds of its unique financial and ideological institutions there. Supported by Iran Jihad al-Binaa, the Islamic charitable foundation that funded and organized the reconstruction of south Beirut after the 2006 summer war, along with a dozen other organizations linked to Iran, is already working on major projects to rebuild schools, roads, and other infrastructure in Aleppo and other cities. They also provide assistance to the families of the fallen Syrian militias.

There is an opinion that the state armies (including the Syrian government army) always remain the largest military force in conflicts.

The media, especially the pro-government ones, persistently write about "battalions fighting on the front line", occasionally adding that they are acting with the support of the "people's guards" (NDF) and "allies".

The answers are in the details. If you look at the picture closer, you will see a completely different story.

The Government Army (SAA) and the NDF are practically extinct.

Government Army (SAA)

Service evasion and desertion have become widespread since 2011.

As a rule, conscripts and officers of junior ranks deserted.

This is partly why the Assad regime did not fully trust the government army.

This is partly why the SAA never fully mobilized.

None of the 20 divisions was ever able to deploy more than a third of its nominal strength on the battlefield. And the number of divisions initially ranged from 2 to 4 thousand soldiers, but the waves of desertion mowed down the personnel.

"People's squads" (NDF)

It is not surprising that the regime was critically short of troops already in the summer of 2012, then advisers from Iran began to arrive in the country, namely officers of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) - the Iranian guard.

They proved that combat formations created on the principle of religions. and polit. supplies are more effective than what's left of the SAA government army.

Thus, the Iranians oversaw the creation of the NDF (National Defense Forces) in Syria.

Officially, the NDF are pro-government formations where “volunteers” are recruited (although they are paid quite decently). The NDF was created on the model of the Iranian BASIJ (volunteers at the IRGC).

This has become a tool for legalizing hundreds of "teams" created by the ruling Ba'ath Party in Syria since the 1980s.

Until 2012, they were popularly known as "shabiha" (party-backed gangs).

According to the Iranians, the NDF in Syria totaled approx. 100 000.

The restructuring of the Syrian armed forces along sectarian lines began, and many new paramilitary groups were created.

The IRGC and other foreign actors began to finance individual NDF battalions. They were also funded by the Ba'ath Party, the Syrian Socialist National Party.

Afghan Fatimiyin Brigade fighters in Shiite enclaves in Aleppo province. February 2016

Private "teams"

The regime encouraged large Alawite businessmen to create their own, private "teams".

And they offered higher salaries than the SAA or even the NDF.

These "teams" even received heavy weapons. For example, such a "team" has about 400 militants, has several vehicles equipped with large-caliber machine guns or light automatic guns, plus from 3 to 15 armored vehicles.

This process of reorganizing the Syrian state military into a bunch of sectarian militias was almost complete by the time the Russian intervention began in the summer of 2015.

Team plus Russians

Accordingly, when planning a counteroffensive against the rebels, for example, in northern Latakia, the Russians used the term "4th Assault Corps" - a typical formation that makes up Assad's troops (this is clearly not the classic state SAA).

Map of Syria published by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on 18-10-2015

Drawing on the command structure of the former 3rd and 4th SAA Divisions, this headquarters controls the 103rd Republican Guard Brigade and six Alawite brigades, all of which are privately owned squadrons run by the Republican Guard.

The 4th Assault Corps also includes the Nusr al-Zabwa brigade of the Syrian Socialist National Party and 2 brigades of the Baath Party. As these formations lacked firepower, they were backed up by Russian artillery batteries from the 8th Artillery Regiment, 120th Artillery Brigade, 439th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade and the 20th Rocket Regiment (the latter equipped with TOS-1, "Pinocchio").

Secondary lines were covered by Russian detachments from the 28th, 32nd and 34th motorized rifle brigades.

A similar organization was subsequently also introduced in the Capital District. However, the units deployed there are not capable of conducting offensive operations.

Ba'ath party brigade, Hama province, January 2016.

Therefore, large-scale attacks on rebel-controlled lands in the capital region are carried out by two brigades of the Lebanese Hezbollah, three brigades of the Palestinian Forces PLA and various surrogates of the IRGC (including the Syrian branch of Hezbollah).

Shiite units from Iraq are now not only "guarding" the town of Seit Zeinab south of Damascus, but also fighting the Syrian rebels.

In addition to Hezbol, Iraqi brigades played a decisive role in the capture of the city of Sheikh Miskin (southern province of Daraa) in January 2016.

At the moment, Homs and Hama remain the last two provinces where the forces of the SAA government army are concentrated.

And although the headquarters of the various SAA units still bear their official names, their battalions consist of various sectarian squads, incl. squads from the Baath party.

Ba'ath created a number of special forces that participated in the attack on eastern Homs and southern Aleppo ("Tiger Force" and "Leopard Force").

Essentially, all private military units are financed by businessmen close to Assad. Their operations east of Homs and in Palmyra are supported by battalions of the Russian 61st Marine Brigade and the 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade.

Despite the presence of such units as the Baath Commando Brigade, the sub-regime part of the city and province of Aleppo is mainly controlled by the Iranians, primarily the IRGC.

The latter, as a rule, has 3-4 units in Syria. Most often mentioned

• Fatimiyin Brigade (staffed by Afghans),
• Zanabiyoun Brigade (Pakistani Shiites),
• Pasdaran (directly Iranians). Pasdaran deployed 4 formations in Aleppo province alone.

The IRGC is supported by Russian troops from the 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade and the 7th Guards Assault Brigade, as well as several artillery batteries.

Even more - there are various formations of Iraqi Shiites:

• 9 brigade-sized groups of the Badri and Sadri Movements
• 7 brigades of the Asaib Aghl al Haq Movement
• 5 Brigades of the Abu Fadl al Abbas Movement
• 2 Iraqi People's Militia Brigades
• 9 Iraqi Shiite brigades whose political affiliation could not be accurately identified

And finally, even the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran itself is directly represented in Syria - in the form of the 65th Airborne Brigade.

In total, in fact, the government army of the SAA and even the NDF is very small. A total of no more than 70 thousand soldiers remained under the command of Assad.

On the other hand, there are at least 18,000 Iranian troops in Syria, and, taking into account the Iraqi brigades, at least 40,000 militants.

Let's not forget about the Russians - there are more of them here than the media reports. In addition to the above units, the Kremlin forces include at least four special forces brigades (3rd, 16th, 22nd, and 24th, in charge of Khmeimim and Sanobar airbases near Latakia, and Shayrat near Homs).
According to general estimates of Russian troops in Syria, from 10 to 15 thousand.

//The article was written by Tom Cooper, the author of the book"Syrian Conflagration: The Syrian Civil War, 2011-2013″