MOSCOW, April 25 - PRIME. The main contender for the prime minister's chair is the current head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Dmitry Medvedev: high assessments of the government's work by the president and parliament, as well as the tense international situation that requires the consolidation of power to maintain internal stability in the country, speak in his favor, according to political scientists interviewed by RIA Novosti.

At the same time, analysts are also considering the option of changing the owner of the White House to such a heavyweight as the capital's mayor Sergei Sobyanin or a young technocrat like ministers Denis Manturov and Maxim Oreshkin; in addition, the appointment of a female politician to this post, in particular, the head of the Central Bank Elvira, is not excluded Nabiullina or Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova.

Stable prime and lightning rod

According to political scientist, member of the expert council of the ISEPI Foundation Leonid Polyakov, it is most realistic to assume that the post of head of government will be offered to the current Prime Minister Medvedev, as evidenced by the statements and assessments that Russian President Vladimir Putin gave about the work of the government and the prime minister in particular.

“Medvedev’s recent report to the State Duma showed that he enjoys the support of almost all parliamentary political parties, although there were critical statements, but it is obvious that there is such support. This means that when his candidacy is proposed to the State Duma, there is a fairly significant guarantee that his will be approved at the first vote,” Polyakov said.

He emphasized that if Medvedev's candidacy is proposed and approved by parliament immediately, this will become an important signal: at such a moment, when the country is under powerful attacks, it is necessary that internal political stability is not disturbed or cracked.

RANEPA professor and political scientist Vladimir Slatinov, in turn, also noted that several very important factors play in favor of retaining Medvedev as head of the Cabinet: the aggravation of the international situation around Russia and a very serious increase in pressure on the country. “We understand that this increased pressure requires the consolidation of power. And the departure of the current prime minister is a very serious redistribution of spheres of influence, a restructuring of the decision-making mechanism. In a situation of increased pressure, of course, it would be very risky for Putin to do this,” he believes.

The political scientist added that Medvedev is a kind of “lightning rod” for Putin in case of making unpopular decisions, such as increasing the tax burden and the retirement age. “I give seven to three that Medvedev will stay,” the expert said.

According to Sergei Bespalov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, if the main task is to maintain stability, then from this point of view, of course, Medvedev’s candidacy is optimal. “It is quite logical that in order to preserve the current system, this post will be retained by Dmitry Anatolyevich,” he said, assessing Medvedev’s chances for the premiership.

Prime for acceleration

At the same time, Bespalov noted that the president’s decisions on personnel issues, including key ones, can be unpredictable. He added that if over the past six years the obligations that Putin assumed to Medvedev at one time were in effect: that he would guarantee him the prime minister’s post, then they can hardly extend to the next term.

“In addition, the very high percentage of votes that the current president received (in the last elections), it kind of gives him a free hand in resolving this issue. Therefore, it all depends on what, from Putin’s point of view, is the main task of the government ", explained Bespalov.

Speaking about the formation of a new cabinet of ministers and a candidacy for the post of prime minister, Slatinov recalled Putin’s words about the breakthrough that needs to be made for the accelerated development of the country. “In order to do this, it is necessary, first of all, to restructure the executive power and fill it with new personnel content. In this sense, of course, this logic of acceleration requires a serious personnel renewal of the government... If we consider the government as an executive instrument, its significant renewal is necessary , including his leadership, to solve this problem,” the political scientist said.

Heavyweights and technocrats

Polyakov, who although he is betting on Medvedev, does not rule out considering other candidates for the post of head of government. “Some candidates may be additionally discussed, and someone from the political elite may have some hopes that his candidacy may also be considered,” he noted.

“Politics is like astronautics, you always have to calculate backup options, you never know, so if we consider the team of backups, then it seems to me that the Moscow mayor is one of the first places on this list. Of course, if something changes , maybe Medvedev himself will refuse, such things happen, then the first replacement who can apply for this post would, of course, be Sergei Semenovich Sobyanin,” Polyakov believes.

According to Bespalov, if the president really wants some breakthrough changes in the economy, then it would be logical to look for a new candidate for prime minister. “From my point of view, given that the most significant achievements in recent years have been achieved precisely within the framework of the defense-industrial complex, which the president unequivocally said during his address to the Federal Assembly, it would be quite logical to entrust the leadership of the government to a person who is directly related to to all these achievements. From this point of view, the candidacy of, for example, the head of Rostec Sergei Chemezov would seem optimal. But there may be other appointments; it is quite possible to consider the candidacy of Sobyanin, and even the candidacy of the head of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova,” the expert suggested. .

Political scientist Slatinov also included the names of Sergei Sobyanin, Alexei Kudrin and even the first deputy head of the presidential administration Sergei Kiriyenko on the short list for the post of prime minister. “If Putin makes a sharp, unconventional move, I still wouldn’t rule it out. Taking into account the fact that the new team will more effectively solve the problems of accelerating growth (of the economy), then here’s the construction: is Putin ready to appoint instead (Medvedev) a heavyweight? A heavyweight like Kudrin or Sobyanin, perhaps Kiriyenko?” - he said.

According to Slatinov, technocrats also have a chance to take the prime minister's post, who, unlike the "heavyweights", will not distract attention from the first person. As an example, the political scientist cited young governors, in particular, the head of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug Dmitry Kobylkin, as well as the Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin.

Women's question

In addition, Slatinov, like Bespalov, does not rule out considering a female politician for the post of head of government. “This is perhaps (Central Bank head Elvira) Nabiullina or (Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana) Golikova... Both Nabiullina and Golikova have higher political and managerial abilities than the so-called young technocrats. Plus, a woman’s face largely compensates negative, including the negative of unpopular reforms that are inevitable,” he suggested.

However, the expert clarified that Nabiullina is valuable to Putin in her place as chairman of the Central Bank, but Golikova could be a suitable option.

“Golikova has a unique potential: she was in the Ministry of Finance - that is, she distributed money - and they say that she was an excellent Deputy Minister of Finance. Then she was the Minister of Health, in charge of social affairs - that is, the person knows this area very well. And now she, As the head of the Accounts Chamber, she looks at all this from the outside, and she understands well how this machine functions. Plus, Putin personally trusts her. For Vladimir Vladimirovich, the factor of personal trust is of great importance,” he explained.

Olga Golodets will replace Mutko as Deputy Prime Minister for Sports. In addition, in the future government she will deal with culture.
Previously, Golodets oversaw the social block, healthcare, demography, employment, education, science, culture, tourism and many other areas in the government. She is remembered by Russians as one of the few top-echelon politicians who openly criticized the so-called “Dima Yakovlev Law,” which prohibits the adoption of Russian children by families from the United States. Golodets stated, in particular, that this law contradicts the Family Code and the International Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Photo: Dmitry Lebedev / Kommersant

Among the main problems of Russia, Golodets named low pensions, which, in her opinion, should be raised to 25 thousand rubles per month, and “unique” poverty as the main obstacle to economic growth.

Now she will have to cope with holding the 2018 World Cup in difficult conditions from a political point of view, and also somehow rehabilitate Russian sports against the backdrop of doping scandals.

Healthcare: an auditor is coming to visit us

Dmitry Medvedev proposed appointing the head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, to the post of Deputy Prime Minister for Health Affairs. The country's chief auditor has extensive experience in this area - from 2007 to 2012, Golikova was Russia's Minister of Health in the government of Vladimir Putin. It is distinguished, firstly, by its activity, and secondly, by its special status.

Golikova is a regular speaker at the most heated discussions of Russian economic forums, she is one of the most quoted representatives of Russian authorities and the main visionary of all the gigantic expenses of the Russian state.

Under Golikova, the supervisory agency turned into an isolated force - devastating reports often became the reason for resignations and criminal cases. Probably the loudest report was devoted to the construction of the Vostochny cosmodrome. The auditors concluded that the project estimate was overestimated by 13 billion rubles. The control body made it possible to identify patterns of misuse of budget funds, as well as prevent further inflation of costs.

Golikova’s replacement will have to try hard to at least maintain the achieved level, especially in the context of the trend towards the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects.

Golikova herself will have to remember her past experience and try to prevent scandals, as happened with drugs, in particular with Arbidol. Although Golikova’s involvement in lobbying for the company’s drugs could not be proven.

Kozak will get more work

Dmitry Kozak will remain in the post of Deputy Prime Minister, but some of the new powers that previously partially belonged to his colleague will be transferred to him. If earlier Kozak was responsible for regional development, infrastructure and housing and communal services in the constituent entities of Russia, now energy and industry are assigned to him.

Kozak does not have much experience in these areas; in October 2018, the Deputy Prime Minister will have been in his position for 10 years, but before that he was in charge of regional development. His relationship with the relevant ministers: the head and the head, is also not obvious, since Kozak is considered one of the most closed persons of the Russian Cabinet.

Kaluga head

Even more mysterious for the average person is the person of the Deputy Prime Minister. Akimov will largely replace Arkady Dvorkovich; transport, communications and the digital economy will be under his jurisdiction. For Dvorkovich himself, who oversaw energy and transport, the loss of his position came as a big surprise; he learned about his dismissal from his post only on the day of Vladimir Putin’s inauguration.

Maxim Akimov has been working in the government since 2012, when he received the post of deputy head of the government apparatus. In 2013, Akimov was assigned the post of Minister of Economic Development as a replacement, but the post went to him. After the arrest of the minister, Akimov again applied for the post of head of the Ministry of Economic Development, but in the end the chair was relinquished.

Before the government, Akimov worked in the administration of Kaluga and as deputy governor of the Kaluga region. Akimov does not have much experience in the industries that he got.

Deputy Prime Minister of the GDR

Previously, this place in the government was occupied by Dmitry Rogozin. It seems that he is not welcome in the new government. This may be due to Russia's numerous failures in the space industry. On April 27, 2016, Rogozin was reprimanded by Vladimir Putin due to problems with the Soyuz 2.1a launch vehicle, the launch of which had to be postponed. However, the Deputy Prime Minister’s troubles did not end there: on December 1 of the same year, the Progress MS-04 cargo ship crashed; on November 28, 2017, the Soyuz.2.1b launch vehicle fell into the ocean, which was supposed to launch 19 satellites.

The fate of five

In addition to Rogozin, at the time of writing this material, five more deputy chairmen of the previous government were not included in Medvedev’s list of candidates.

The fate of the first deputy chairman is unclear. He oversaw economic policy. Shuvalov was dismissed many times, but he himself was very philosophical about his fate. “I want to work where the president says. I’m happy with any job the president gives,” the First Deputy Prime Minister responded to this.

Medvedev did not mention Arkady Dvorkovich, who oversaw the fuel and energy complex. President Vladimir Putin subjected him to serious criticism in 2017 for the fact that, according to the head of state, he paid insufficient attention to the transport industry. Then the VIM-Avia airline was unable to pay its fuel suppliers and airports, which led to numerous flight cancellations and delays.

“I announce to you that you are not fully qualified for your duties. If you cope with this situation quickly and effectively, then Dmitry Anatolyevich and I will think about what to do with this incomplete official compliance; if you can’t cope, then we will also think about it,” Putin said.

In addition, among the now ex-deputies - and, as well as, who combined the post of Deputy Prime Minister with the work of presidential envoy in the Far Eastern Federal District.

Finally, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who was tipped to become first deputy prime minister, deserves special mention. However, Medvedev did not find a place for him in the future team. that Putin is considering the possibility of returning Kudrin to the Cabinet of Ministers as Deputy Prime Minister. Sources reported plans to appoint a politician to some high post. On May 7, Kudrin himself, in a conversation with RIA Novosti, refused to comment on this information.

The upcoming change of cabinet will take place primarily in the trend of purges of pro-Clinton agents, which is now happening not only in Russia, but throughout the world. Accordingly, first of all, honored figures whose roots stretch back to the 90s will lose their posts.

New government – ​​breakthrough government or maintaining the status quo

1. Option 1. Medvedev, but without Dvorkovich, Shuvalov and other accomplices, and with a powerful first deputy prime minister who will be a counterweight. The main candidates for this role are Ivanov, Chemezov, Sechin, or Governor Dyumin.
2. Option 2. Kudrin, but with a powerful counterweight (see the same + Kozak).
3. Option 3. Prime technocrat, the main contenders are Denis Manturov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Rosoboronprom Vladimir Artyakov, the same Governor Dyumin, or someone from the defense industry.
4. Option 4. Verified personnel: Dmitry Kozak, Yuri Trutnev, Tatyana Golikova.
5. Option 5. A technical liberal, the contenders are Minister Dmitry Oreshkin and the governor of the Novgorod region, ex-head of ASI Nikitin.

Arkady Dvorkovich and Olga Golodets are guaranteed to leave the government. Igor Shuvalov will be transferred to a less responsible job, possibly as a special representative for negotiations with international organizations. Dmitry Rogozin will remain, but he will be removed from the defense industry and assigned to relations with the CIS countries and Eurasian integration.

A job has already been found for Arkady Dvorkovich - he became the chairman of the organizing committee for FIFA 2018 and, probably, after the end of the championship he will continue to be involved in football and sports in general. Perhaps in the status of the President's special representative on sports issues.

The head of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, Nikiforov, will leave; the groups of Shchegolev and Reiman are fighting for his place. The Ministry of Education and Science is questioning Vasilyeva and Minister Medinsky. The latter, oddly enough, has good positions and there is a high probability that he will remain.

Medvedev will most likely move to the Supreme Court; his transfer to Gazprom is unlikely. Gazprom, by the way, will be sold to mining and transport companies.

Perhaps Chemezov will be removed from Rostec. Formally, they will be promoted, but in fact they will be removed from working with cash flows, since the first person is not very happy with the efficiency of spending funds.

Alexander Bastrykin or presidential assistant Evgeny Shkolov will be transferred to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The fate of the Investigative Committee is still in question. There is an option to return him to the Prosecutor General’s Office, but while Chaika is at the head of the State Prosecutor’s Office, this will not happen, since he is a man from the 90s, and was appointed by Boris Yeltsin.

When a person from St. Petersburg becomes the Prosecutor General, then this will be a sure sign that the State Prosecutor will regain influence. And there is already one young talent preparing for this role - now Deputy Prosecutor General for the Southern Federal District Andrei Kikot.

The option of introducing the post of head of the intelligence community, as in the United States, is being considered. At the same time, there will be no merger of special services. It is not yet clear who will be the head of the intelligence community. Perhaps Patrushev, Bortnikov or Naryshkin.

The position of the governors of Moscow and St. Petersburg is questionable. There is an option that Sergei Sobyanin will leave the post of mayor after the elections or after the end of the football championship, since the president is dissatisfied with the way things are being done in Moscow. He will formally return to the government, perhaps in the status of first vice. His place may be taken by Dmitry Kozak, who has been asking for land for a long time. Or Igor Levitin, who was already nominated for this position in 2010. The same is true in St. Petersburg, although Poltavchenko may serve until his term expires.

• “Given his background, it is more difficult to remove Dmitry Medvedev from the post of prime minister than to conquer the United States!”
• “The icon with the SS man and friend of Hitler was presented by His Holiness the Patriarch and Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation to the New Jerusalem Museum”
• “Dmitry Medvedev will become the face of the German automobile industry?”

Will Dmitry Medvedev stay?

The main intrigue of the upcoming changes is whether Dmitry Medvedev will remain prime minister or will migrate somewhere to the Supreme Court, Gazprom or the Federation Council. Today the probability is 50/50.

On the one hand, Medvedev is an overly convenient prime minister and plays a good role as a lightning rod and clown on duty at various idiotic events like handing out BMW keys to Olympic athletes. On the other hand, the negative perception of him in the mass consciousness is clearly overwhelming and is about to begin to splash the Guarantor himself, if it has not already started. On the third hand, he certainly doesn’t have enough stars in the sky, but at least since the spring of 2014 he has not meddled with strategic issues.

But even if he remains in office, he will no longer have the key to government appointments that he had in 2012. And therefore, in any case, President Putin will form the new government himself. Most likely, in this case, a strong first deputy prime minister will appear, who will concentrate administration and operational management in his hands. The head of Rostec Sergei Chemezov, the President of Rosneft Igor Sechin and the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu can all apply for this role. The latter option will at the same time free up the strategically important position of the Minister of Defense and appoint a presidential person there, for example, Tula Governor Alexander Dyumin.

The main contender for relegation is Deputy Prime Minister and head of the government apparatus Sergei Prikhodko. This honored veteran of the apparatus, who was an assistant to Boris Yeltsin, was completely compromised during the recent story with Nastya Rybka on Oleg Deripaska’s yacht. Actually, there is little doubt that this story became an active event of the special services in relation to Deripaska and with the aim of cleaning up such a pillar of the old family clan as Prikhodko. In addition, there remains little doubt that Alexey Navalny is charged primarily with representatives of the “security wing” and, in a broader sense, with isolationists, and in recent years he has been working to clean up the globalist wing of the Russian government.

Contender number two is Arkady Dvorkovich, the same one who wrote on his Twitter on September 24, 2011, on the day of the legendary Putin-Medvedev castling: There is no reason for joy. After that, he allowed himself to be rude and confrontational many times, for example, he organized a collection of signatures from government members against the Dima Yakovlev Law, thereby emphasizing his loyalty to the United States and the Barack Obama administration. But now there is a different administration in the White House, which is not interested in who and how demonstrated their loyalty to Obama and the Clintons.

It may be recalled that on the day of Ulyukaev’s arrest, information was disseminated that Dvorkovich was also being developed by the special services. The author of these lines saw Dvorkovich a few days after this arrest at the opening of an exhibition dedicated to Alexei Kosygin, and then saw fear in the eyes of the Deputy Prime Minister.

It should also be remembered that in 2012, Dvorkovich received a wide range of issues under his jurisdiction, which in the previous cabinet were managed by as many as three deputy prime ministers: the fuel and energy complex, industrial policy, transport and agriculture. But he did not achieve success in any of these industries, and most recently was subjected to devastating criticism from the president after the bankruptcy of the Vim-Avia airline. The President then unobtrusively hinted that perhaps Dvorkovich was overworked, which sounded like it was time to rest.

Another likely candidate for resignation is Deputy Prime Minister for Social Affairs Olga Golodets, a “strange character,” as Gennady Onishchenko aptly called her. In the past, she worked under Mikhail Prokhorov. There are no significant overlords or clans behind it, but there is a clear affiliation with Globalia.

The fate of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Khloponin, a member of the Interror group and former Krasnoyarsk governor, is in question. It was Khloponin who signed the Paris climate agreement four years ago, which is unfavorable for Russia and developed countries in general, which establishes discrimination in favor of third world countries at the international level.

It is the Paris Agreement that has become the main project of Globalia in recent years, and the attitude towards it is a marker of belonging to one or another world clan. Let us recall that in Russia, Anatoly Chubais, the former privatizer and now the head of Rusnano, is vigorously promoting the Paris Agreement. Let us recall that Putin acted wisely in this matter - he delegated a third-rate official to sign, and it must be ratified by the Federal Assembly before 2021.

At the same time, the president himself unobtrusively noted during the Arctic expedition that climate change was noted back in 1930. At the same time, he did not openly distance himself from the signing of the Paris Agreement, leaving his North American colleague Donald Trump to pave the way. It is possible that in this regard, Khloponin will remain as a representative of Globalia until the situation is finally determined at the global level.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin did not win any laurels as curator of the military-industrial complex, but it is likely that he will retain his post, given his national-patriotic background and the symbolic significance of his figure for patriotic circles in Russia. In addition, Rogozin belongs to a clan that was influential back in Soviet times, which explains his institutional survival. It is likely that Rogozin will be removed from the supervision of the military-industrial complex, transferring this role to Chemezov’s man, in return he will receive issues of interaction with the CIS and EAEU countries, Eurasian integration, and as a separate cherry on the cake - relations with the b. Ukraine.

Deputy Prime Ministers Dmitry Kozak and Yuri Trutnev have a good chance of remaining in the Government, or getting promoted to the prime minister's chair. Kozak is in charge of the strategically significant issue of the development of Crimea, and Trutnev is in charge of the equally significant development of the Far East and the schools are not yet in charge of them.

Regarding the ministries of the presidential bloc, the picture is more clear. The most likely candidate for resignation is Minister of Justice Alexander Konovalov, since he belongs to Dmitry Medvedev’s team, and previously positioned himself in connection with monarchist circles. His replacement is already ready - this is his deputy Oleg Plokhoi, former head of the presidential anti-corruption department.

The resignation of the Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev and the head of the Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin looks practically decided today. The resignation of the latter, based on the logic of the system of checks and balances, will entail the departure from the forefront of his eternal antagonist, Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika, who, unlike Bastrykin, never belonged to the presidential team, but is one of the last appointees of Boris Yeltsin remaining in the federal government. Olympus.

Most likely, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov will retain their posts.

A separate question concerns the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sergei Lavrov is not averse to asking for a well-deserved rest, but the president has no one to replace him. According to sources, the option of replacing Lavrov with Sergei Naryshkin and actually reassigning the Foreign Ministry to the Foreign Intelligence Service is being considered. Such a reshuffle would look like a symmetrical response to the appointment of CIA Director Michael Pompeo as US Secretary of State.

If we talk about the ministerial level, then the main contender for relegation is the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova, popularly known as the “Minister of Closed Hospitals.” Vladimir Putin’s recent demand to restore hospitals and medical and obstetric centers in small towns of Russia can be regarded as a verdict on the Ministry of Health and the entire so-called. optimization of healthcare that has been carried out in recent years.

The head of the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications, Nikolai Nikiforov, will leave, who has not proven himself in anything other than belonging to Tatar circles, which are now not in great favor. The groups of Igor Shchegolev and Leonid Reiman are fighting for his place. It is also obvious that special attention requires control of the media and, first of all, the central television channels, which today openly pursue the Globalist line.

Replacement of TV channel management is also inevitable. It is possible to recreate the Ministry of Information that once existed. It is possible that political strategists who have proven their loyalty to the Fatherland and have repeatedly confirmed their qualifications during election battles in Russian regions may be attracted to the leadership.

In general, the new government will be more statist, personally oriented towards President Putin and focused on issues of the country's development. Representatives of Globalia will remain in it, but their role and number will be incomparably smaller.

Vladimir Korenchuk,

for the newspaper "President"

From the editor

As political scientists like to argue, the “collective Putin” is much more unpredictable, as are his appointments. The elite of all levels of government in Manege at the Address on March 1, 2018, were able to verify this. And to understand that much, or almost everything, in mysterious Russia is not known to her and is not under her control. This could be seen on the faces of government members, who fidgeted and squeezed into their chairs, recognizing Russia, recognizing Putin. Our forecast: many of the current ones will not even be remembered and will not be found on the lists for seats. And the new appointees will be required to cleanse the apparatus in all departments of already exposed agents, saboteurs, and hidden enemies - the President said this directly in the Address.

The just completed investment forum in Sochi is positioned as interregional. As planned, it highlights the interaction between the federal government and regional authorities. Therefore, in terms of the number of federal ministers and governors, he confidently holds first place.

What is now primarily worrying the ministers and governors meeting in Sochi? Of course, the composition of the future cabinet of ministers, which will be officially announced only in May. For some, this is a matter of personal biography, career and future employment; for others, it is building new or maintaining existing ties with Moscow, without which regional problems cannot be solved.

No one is exactly clear, but having gathered together, they definitely had something to discuss. The media have already disseminated information that in the resort city, behind the scenes of the forum, bets were even made on whether Dmitry Medvedev, after the mandatory resignation in connection with the election of the president (this is a requirement of the Constitution, does not depend on whether the new president will be old) fast. In any case, those gathered tried to catch the trumpet sounds of optimism or the violin minor of farewell in the prime minister’s speech in Sochi. Didn't catch it. The prime minister did not reveal anything. His speech was, as usual, rounded: he pointed to the emerging investment growth, not forgetting to add that this is not enough. There was also a good joke. When it was proposed to “suspend Google so that Yandex can grow,” the prime minister replied: “It is possible to suspend, but only in a single country.”

In fact, if we were to look for notes of farewell to Medvedev as prime minister, they could be heard not in Sochi, but in Moscow, when at the very end of last year Vladimir Putin gave an unexpectedly sky-high assessment of the activities of the government, which “did everything it could, and even more". But, on the other hand, Medvedev, having served as president for the required four years, not only did not aim for more, but under the returning Putin, he supported changes to the Constitution that increased the presidential term to six years. Such loyalty is worth a lot, and Putin knows how to appreciate it. In addition, it is completely unclear to what honorary post the honored prime minister of the republic could be moved.

And yet, who could, in principle, replace Medvedev? The appointment of Alexei Kudrin as Prime Minister would have a liberal political vector. He could take up the implementation of his proposed strategy. But there are contraindications. Firstly, Kudrin too often refused offers to return to power, and this is not forgotten. Secondly, in the strategy put forward, Kudrin also touches on the purely political sphere - up to the proposal to make adjustments to the foreign policy course, and this is the prerogative and favorite clearing of the president, who may not like attempts at such interference.

So Dmitry Medvedev retains the highest chances. But don’t forget about the signature surprises from Vladimir Putin’s personnel kitchen. They do, however, have limitations. Putin knows about the work of the head of the cabinet from his own experience. And the new prime minister should definitely have experience working in government. This narrows the search. As a result, Maxim Oreshkin, for example, could become prime minister. He is already boldly speaking out on issues that go far beyond the powers of his ministry, which strengthens interest in him in the Kremlin. This is a new face - and therefore what Russia needs, at least in communication with foreign countries. And youth and inexperience, as we know, are shortcomings, albeit temporary ones.

An alternative to a young technocrat could be one of the top managers of large companies or banks (like the head of Sberbank German Gref and the chairman of the board of Gazprom Alexei Miller) or a female prime minister. The last option is progressive and meets the modern fashion for gender equality.

Political scientists and various insiders are discussing other candidates, as well as possible government configurations. For example, there is a widespread version that the president can completely eliminate the post of head of government and subordinate the cabinet directly to himself. In this case, according to Gazeta.Ru, a “super ministry” could be created, which would include the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance.

Another revolutionary option is the introduction of elements of a parliamentary republic. In this case, the government will be formed by a parliamentary majority, although the powers of the head of state are unlikely to be greatly reduced.

Taking into account the likely transformation of the state power system, Gazeta.Ru has compiled a shortlist of potential candidates for prime minister.

Young technocrat

Minister of Economic Development

Maxim Oreshkin

Maxim Oreshkin took over as head of the Ministry of Economic Development after Alexey Ulyukaev was detained in October 2016 on charges of taking a bribe. Many believed that the young deputy finance minister was simply given the opportunity to “hold his place” until the presidential elections in March 2018. Less than a year later, Bloomberg named Oreshkin as Vladimir Putin's new favorite, and numerous Kremlin and government sources call him one of the main candidates for the post of prime minister. Maxim Oreshkin is also the developer of one of the programs for the socio-economic development of Russia until 2024. The document has not yet been published anywhere, but Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev personally delivered it to the president, who gave the corresponding instructions to the government.

Prime Minister from Parliament

Vyacheslav Volodin was one of the most influential leaders of the presidential administration, and some observers called his move to parliament a demotion. But if the Kremlin decides to implement the option of moving to forming a government by parliament, then Volodina’s shares will instantly jump in price. An experienced bureaucrat may well expect to occupy the chair of the head of the cabinet. However, even without a “parliamentary maneuver” Volodin may end up in the prime minister’s chair.

Professional woman

Head of the Bank of Russia

Elvira Nabiullina

Vladimir Putin has been working with Elvira Nabiullina for many years and appreciates her. As vice president of the Center for Strategic Research, she participated in the development of the program for his first presidential term, then headed this fund, worked as deputy minister and minister of economic development, and assistant to the president. Nabiullina is the first head of the Central Bank of Russia, who managed to achieve fantastic success in the fight against inflation. In September it remained at 3.2%, which is even below the Central Bank’s target level of 4%. At the same time, the Central Bank's policy in the banking sector irritates many, and moving to work in the government would be a good decision for everyone.

Bureaucrat-economist

Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation

Andrey Belousov

Another former head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Andrei Belousov, today coordinates the work of the presidential administration with economic programs developed by expert centers. He is an experienced official and a competent economist; according to rumors, some influential forces have united to promote Belousov as a counterweight to the “power bloc.”

Governor-modernizer

Mayor of Moscow

The country's chief renovator, Sergei Sobyanin, has established himself as a person capable of making “Europe out of Russia,” regardless of costs and public opinion. He learned to manage the latter in such a way that even from a very difficult situation, such as protests against renovation, he emerged almost triumphantly. The mayor of Moscow won the elections against Alexei Navalny, and at the last municipal elections he made the opposition feel like winners, but at the same time United Russia received more than 75% of deputy mandates. It is possible that at the moment, Sobyanin is the most effective regional leader in the country.

Effective manager

President of Sberbank

German Gref

One longtime member of Vladimir Putin's team, who worked with him back in the mayor's office of St. Petersburg, was Minister of Economy in the federal government from 2000 to 2007. He transformed Sberbank from a Soviet institution into a fairly modern credit organization. One of those people who constantly generate a reform agenda. At the moment, his favorite topics are the reform of the public administration system, as well as everything related to the digital economy - “big data”, blockchain, etc. He is a “duty” candidate for the prime minister’s chair.

Famous reformer

Head of the Center for Strategic Research Foundation

Alexey Kudrin

One of the programs for Vladimir Putin’s “fourth presidential term” was written by the TsSR under the leadership of Alexei Kudrin. The former finance minister, who lost his place in the government due to harsh words addressed to Dmitry Medvedev, who was the country's president at that time, believes that it is necessary to reduce spending on defense and the state apparatus, invest more in education, and also advocates raising the retirement age . Kudrin is one of those people who Vladimir Putin listens to, and he is constantly tipped for high positions in power. In all respects he is suitable for the prime minister's position, but requires too much independence in decision-making.

Sergei Naryshkin, who at one time headed the presidential administration, worked as deputy prime minister and speaker of the State Duma. In addition, Vladimir Putin may well promote one of the young governors who recently went through the election procedure. There are many young and promising people there - the head of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov (31 years old), the Novgorod governor Andrei Nikitin (37 years old), the governor of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov (40 years old), the head of Udmurtia Alexander Brechalov (43 years old). In general, the president has a lot of “jokers” in his deck, and the decision could turn out to be very interesting.