New government: who will leave, who will stay. Several deputy prime ministers and ministers will change in the government. Power: who will leave and who will stay

The World Cup is in full swing, it was at this time that we were expecting a blow from Ukraine in Donbass and a provocation, but we received a double stab in the back from our native Russian Government.

Four days have passed since this gift. The Russians are retreating , trying to use a calculator to calculate how much they were bent to the Bottom. The arithmetic is not reassuring, and neither are the prospects. The weekend and sunny weather slightly distracted our compatriots from sad thoughts, but everything looks rather vile and with the smell of a total majority in the Parliament and the Federation Council, which are already ready to give deep, group approval to our Government bloc, waving their bodies in unison. So there will soon be another law of scoundrels.

The comrades did not expect that the people would not swallow it and would begin to be indignant. There's no way to get away with jokes here; people who are freaked out can take up pitchforks, and this is a very real scenario. Here even the TV choked, but thank God that there are powerful interpreters and calmers Kiselev, Solovyov and company.

The guys have nowhere to go, the state order and the feeding trough must be honestly worked out, so they tell the people fairy tales for the people’s money. It looked very disgusting. They worked so hard that you just want to spit...

No matter how the TV tries to smooth out the corners, no matter how respected experts and economists say that raising the retirement age bar is the right measure, otherwise the Khan’s pension system, there is the most important result of this whole story - a complete failure of the economic and social policies of those guys from the Government and the Kremlin, who have built themselves a cozy nest there over the past two decades. The deception of the people is obvious when Vladimir Putin is all in white, Medvedev reads out the verdict on paper, and the boyars with wide muzzles and downcast eyes bleat something. Why couldn’t Vladimir Putin say this before April 18? What were you afraid of? I would have won anyway... There is something vile and humiliating in this whole story. Lies and complete lies.

Perhaps the pension reform is even a very forced measure, which was delayed until “after the elections,” but several boyish questions arise for those boys whom we have been following for 18 years.

1. Why didn’t Putin, Medvedev and company start with themselves and give up their royal benefits? We can count how many palaces were built and how much they cost the people.

2. Why did the deputies of United Russia not give up their boyar salaries and benefits, and do not want to share all the hardships of the Bottom along with the people?

3. Why didn’t they start with those healthy, young men and women in uniform, who had a good time on state support at headquarters, and also apply for an apartment and a decent pension? We don’t live in the 19th century, when they were drafted into the army and at the age of 40-45 they were written off half-dead and crippled. Is the work of a doctor or a truck driver easier?

4. What did the Government offer to Russians besides raising the retirement age? Qualitative improvement of medicine and medical care? Or launched a program to ensure retraining and guarantee the provision of decent jobs for people over 55-60 years old? Just promises that you can't believe - you don't respect yourself.

5. Have we really been able to improve the quality of life and nutrition of Russians in recent years due to the availability of quality food products for a healthy lifestyle? Alas, people eat everything that is cheap and harmful, and not because of a good life.

6. What about the experts’ forecasts that in the near future, as people are forced out of the economy due to the introduction of new technologies and the automation of many routine processes, there will be a problem with what to do with people who are simply not needed. How many will be able to find a job, especially at an already respectable age?

Here is a striking example. I pull up to a gas station and there’s no one there. Only speakers and a card machine.

How many such examples are there and where should people go? When making their forecasts for decades, did these heads from the Government think about this?

There are many questions, but there are no answers to them. This swindler has drained all our resources into London mansions, his residences, yachts, planes, and foreign accounts. This is where people have a breakdown in consciousness - there is no money, but you hold on if you live to see our Olympus, crazy with fat.

You can give hundreds of arguments for pension reform, telling how it is in the USA, Germany or Japan, but can you give at least one argument why you didn’t start with yourself? The stories about +12,000 rubles a year are wonderful, but this money will be eaten up by inflation, which since the beginning of this year has been at least 10%, judging by the prices in stores, at gas stations, and prices for air tickets have long since crossed this line.

What will the State Duma deputies and Sobyanin personally say when he goes to the polls? Does he support these decisions on pensions and repression of business in the perverted form of VAT +11/2%? He can go to the polls on his own, but he is an integral part of United Russia. People will ask him this question, but he will simply hide from it, otherwise they may not choose.

The situation with raising the retirement age and VAT must be considered comprehensively, and in the context of what is happening in the country. We are simply talking about a bestial attitude towards Russians and business. Why don’t we set the right standards for people in the rest of the world - take, for example, lowering the retirement age by a couple of years? Why not revive the business by reducing VAT to 12-14%? Why not fix gasoline prices at 20 rubles? liter? Many will say that these are populist issues, but this is nonsense. A reduction in costs always leads to business growth, including non-resource exports, and as a result, economic growth, and the ability to allocate more money for social security for those who need it, and not those who are entitled to it.

Sooner or later the situation will explode, it is impossible to look with love and hope at those who hit you on the head with a club and say - You will work more and eat less!

So, dear “cattle electorate”, the elections are over, we are tightening our belts and getting ready to continue kissing United Russia on the lower parts of its beautiful body with beautiful faces.

Are Russian protests against the proposed pension reform real? I'm sure yes, the last straw is missing. Anyone who organizes a rally against government outrages will gather millions of people under his wing. But why doesn’t Alexey Navalny do this? Why are trade unions and communists silent? Hey, comrades...

And at the end of the post, a little from life on the sports ground of one of the Moscow parks. Opening time around 8.00, Sunday 17 June. About a dozen people were working on the site. Between approaches, those gathered, who were mostly men, discussed the latest actions of our government. The average age of those present was 45-60 years. So, they were worried about two questions.

The first is whether they will reach retirement age and in what form? And the second most important thing is who will hire them, if now after 45-50 it is very difficult to find a job. This is what Moscow residents say, but what about residents of the outback, where young people cannot find work, and what should the older and pre-retirement generation do?

I believe that the new Government should resign, and Vladimir Putin should come out to the people, apologize and repent. Of course, he was aware of the proposed reform, although Peskov says that GDP had nothing to do with it. And we, who write and speak, are obliged to speak loudly and write about this, since many Russians are simply afraid to speak for fear of reprisals.

Now it will be like in a zone - “Don’t believe, don’t be afraid, don’t ask,” but rely only on yourself and your loved ones. Save for your old age and all methods are good for this. We are entering a very bad time, when many will find themselves not at the poverty line, but at the survival line.

On Friday, to be honest, I haven’t received so many letters from readers in a long time who are simply horrified by what happened and their prospects. Many of those who wrote, and this is several hundred people, say that they are ready to take to the streets, since there is no other option. Personally, I am ready to go out and demand the resignation of ALL of us, who lied and are fed up.

Why is the opposition silent and not taking to the streets?

There will not be many new faces in the new government. Most likely, the Cabinet of Ministers will again be headed by Dmitry Medvedev.

The government may include heads of state corporations, and presidential assistant Andrei Belousov may become the first deputy prime minister.

It is possible that Alexei Kudrin will return to power.

It is likely that Igor Shuvalov, Arkady Dvorkovich, Dmitry Rogozin, Vladimir Medinsky and some other officials will leave the government.

On Monday, May 7, the official inauguration ceremony of President Vladimir Putin, who has been elected for a fourth term, will take place. After the inauguration, the government will resign, and, in accordance with the law, a new cabinet must be formed within two weeks.

On Friday, May 4, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the exact date for nominating a new prime minister “is the exclusive prerogative of the Russian president.” There is no reliable information about what the composition and structure of the new government will be.

Dmitry Peskov answered questions from Gazeta.Ru about candidates for the post of prime minister, about possible “losses” in the government and appointments to key posts: “it’s still okay to ask such questions.”

There is no answer even to the question of what will be published first: the presidential decree on national development goals until 2024 (it is being prepared by the head of the presidential administration, Anton Vaino) or the name of the new prime minister.

Against the backdrop of a complete lack of official information, “Kremlin experts”, as well as numerous sources, are giving out more and more new versions of resignations and appointments. Political scientists have reached a consensus on some positions.

Fourth term prime minister

Dmitry Medvedev, it seems, will retain the post of prime minister. In an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel on April 28, he made it clear that the government had generally fulfilled the tasks set by the head of state. That is, it worked well, and why leave then?

Secondly, Medvedev clearly stated: “Of course, I am not going to go on vacation yet. I am ready to work and will work where I can bring the maximum benefit to my country.”

The maximum benefit is precisely the post of prime minister, not counting the post of president. And now it’s really too early for him to rest. For example, it’s time to implement pension reform. Medvedev said that the authorities are on the verge of legislative discussions on raising the retirement age.

Finally, Medvedev invited former US President Barack Obama to look at the Russian economy “torn to shreds” as a result of the imposition of sanctions. The invitation to come to Russia suggests that Medvedev is inviting not as a private person, but as a prime minister.

Factions in the State Duma are already preparing for a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister of Russia, RIA Novosti reported on May 4, citing a source in parliament.

Gazeta.Ru previously reported that, according to most sources in the government and the Kremlin, the current prime minister will retain his post.

One of the informed sources close to the Kremlin noted that Medvedev successfully structured work with the government for Putin. In addition, the emergence of a new prime minister would draw attention to him as a likely successor to the president in the 2024 elections, says another source familiar with the situation.

According to him, it is more logical to expect a repetition of the scheme tested at the end of Vladimir Putin’s second presidential term. Then, de facto, two deputy prime ministers competed for the right to become a successor: Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev.

If such a scenario is used this time, the deputy prime ministers will come under more scrutiny than the prime minister himself.

Where will the president send

If everything is more or less clear with the prime minister (although in reality the president can easily propose another candidate), then with the deputy prime ministers it is much more interesting. According to sources, several deputies will leave the government at once.

In particular, we are talking about Igor Shuvalov, who has been in the civil service since 1998, and has been working as first deputy for almost 10 years. Sources and experts are confident that Shuvalov will not be in the new government.

The media named Moscow State University as one of Shuvalov’s possible places of work. However, two facts speak against this version. The term of office of the current rector of Moscow State University, Viktor Sadovnichy, expires only at the end of 2019. In addition, Igor Shuvalov may not have sufficient qualifications to manage the scientific community - the Deputy Prime Minister did not defend his doctoral dissertation and has the scientific title of Candidate of Legal Sciences.

The most “popular” replacement for Shuvalov is considered to be Presidential Assistant for Economic Affairs Andrei Belousov, who formerly headed the Ministry of Economic Development.

Over the past year, Belousov has been busy preparing a six-year plan for Putin’s socio-economic development of the country, and in the spring, together with Anton Vaino, he worked on a decree defining “national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024.”

Shuvalov himself, in response to a direct question about his future, said that “I want to work where the president says,” adding that “I am happy with any job that the president gives.”

The plan provides for an increase in spending on healthcare, education and infrastructure by 10 trillion rubles, Bloomberg reported. Dmitry Peskov said that this figure does not correspond to reality. The head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, estimated the cost of the plan at 8 trillion rubles. Belousov admitted that the “budget maneuver” was being worked out.

It is possible to increase spending on “human capital” and infrastructure by reducing spending on defense and national security, experts say. This process has already begun in Russia. The latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recorded a 20% decline in defense spending in 2017.

“The Russian army has carried out large-scale work on technical and technological renewal. This process is basically complete. And therefore, the peak of expenses for technological re-equipment has passed,” Peskov explained the decrease in expenses.

In addition, Belousov aimed to reduce poverty and create sustainable growth in real incomes of the population, which were declining in 2014-2017.

“This is an increase in real pensions, an increase in pensions above inflation, as the president said, and this is a halving of the poverty level by 2024. These are also very challenging goals, and they have to be achieved,” said the assistant to the head of state.

Contenders for management of the military-industrial complex

During the May holidays, information appeared in the media that Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, could become deputy prime minister. The company quickly denied this rumor, saying that under the terms of the contract he was required to work for the company for another two years.

Sechin's return to office is also doubtful because "" - for the first time in its history - announced plans to carry out a buy-back of its shares for $2 billion. The program will begin in the second quarter and will last until the end of 2020.

Another “vice” is the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov. He will oversee industry and the military-industrial complex instead of Dmitry Rogozin. He, as well as Arkady Dvorkovich, who is responsible for the agricultural industry, will probably have to leave the cabinet.

A clear hint of Dvorkovich’s departure is contained in the arrest of co-owner of the Summa group Ziyavudin Magomedov, a classmate of the Deputy Prime Minister. The Magomedov brothers (Ziyavudin and Magomed) are suspected of theft, embezzlement and organizing a criminal community.

It is being discussed that Rogozin’s place could also be taken by the current Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, retaining the post of head of the defense department.

The Ministry of Armor, if Shoigu leaves it, could be headed by the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, or the commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation, Sergei Surovikin.

Experts and the media paint good prospects for Denis Manturov - he can retain the post of head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and at the same time become Deputy Prime Minister.
The ex-minister is tipped to return

Alexey Kudrin, who previously served as head of the Ministry of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister, could also become deputy chairman of the government. Kudrin, who headed the Center for Strategic Research, was tasked with preparing a strategy for the country's development until 2024. The document was previously presented to the president, and in April of this year it was posted on the CSR website.

It is also likely that Kudrin may be tasked with creating and heading the Center for Public Administration Efficiency, which may report personally to the president. The ex-minister recently spoke with Dmitry Medvedev about how to modernize the state apparatus.

On Friday, May 4, the Center for Social Development presented the report “The State as a Platform,” which contains proposals for the government’s transition to digital. This will be dealt with by the same Center, which will be headed by the Deputy Prime Minister or Minister.

There is a significant obstacle to Kudrin's return to the government. He has a difficult relationship with Dmitry Medvedev. In 2011, Medvedev, as president of the Russian Federation, fired Kudrin from the government after a series of careless statements by the latter.

An alternative to a position in the Cabinet is a position in the presidential administration. The British Financial Times, citing its sources, reported that “under Kudrin” a position would be created as a representative of the head of state on international economic cooperation to restore relations with the West.

Kudrin himself has not decided whether he is ready to return to the government or not. “I’m not going back anywhere and I haven’t commented on this topic for a long time. In my opinion, all these newspaper canards are ahead of the possible events that could happen,” he said. Representatives of Kudrin do not comment on rumors about his “comeback”.

Tolstoy as a mirror of Russian culture

The hottest debate in the media space arises around the figure of Vladimir Medinsky: will he be reappointed as Minister of Culture or not? There are many claims: from a doctoral dissertation allegedly compiled by Medinsky to corruption scandals and the creation of non-competitive conditions for film distributors.

And if he leaves, who will replace him? It is possible that this is Presidential Advisor on Cultural Affairs Vladimir Tolstoy. Or the creature of film director Nikita Mikhalkov - State Duma deputy Elena Yampolskaya. For the post of head of the Ministry of Culture, they are also wooing a candidate from the opposite ideological camp – the prime minister’s press secretary, Natalya Timakova.

Rumor makers are “dismissing” the Minister of Education and Science Olga Vasilyeva. She may return to the presidential administration, becoming an adviser on interfaith relations. The topic of her doctoral dissertation is “The Russian Orthodox Church in the politics of the Soviet state in 1943–1948.”

Some experts “propose” dividing the ministry into two – education, as well as the ministry of science and new technologies. Science will receive a new lobbyist, although it is not a fact that more money will be allocated from the budget for innovation. There is a “ready” candidate for the position of Minister of Science.

The list of possible contenders for the post of head of the Ministry of Education includes State Duma deputies Lyubov Dukhanina and Alena Arshinova and others. Among the “others,” the strong position is of Elena Shmeleva, director of the Sochi Sirius center, co-chair of the campaign headquarters of presidential candidate Putin.

The professional community is considering ex-Minister of Education Dmitry Livanov, as well as General Director of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives Svetlana Chupsheva, for the position of chief science officer.

After the tragedy in the Kemerovo shopping center “Winter Cherry,” the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Vladimir Puchkov, has the least chance of maintaining himself in the government. Doping scandals make the prospects of remaining in the government of Vitaly Mutko miserable. The crisis in the air transportation market caused by the bankruptcy of VIM-Avia will cost Maxim Sokolov the position of Minister of Transport. His place could be taken by the head of Russian Railways, Oleg Belozerov, or the head of Aeroflot, Vitaly Savelyev.

The social bloc will most likely get a new leader. Olga Golodets’ “Vice Prime Minister’s” chair will be given to one of the “strong female leaders.” Sources talk about the head of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova, the speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko. Among the candidates there are also non-obvious people. For example, State Duma deputy Olga Batalina.

Only three positions remain relatively strong in the new Cabinet: Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who is gaining weight, the smiling Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, and the aksakal of the foreign policy department, 68-year-old Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The last of them will leave if only he asks for rest. Instead, sources predict Dmitry Peskov.

However, everyone knows that Putin rarely makes personnel appointments under the pressure of public opinion and likes to present surprises. Old and new ministers will have to take on “unpopular” decisions - from raising the retirement age to introducing new taxes. This makes the prospects of the new cabinet to last the entire six years illusory.

How do Western experts differ from homegrown ones? The ones who fell silent. They, unlike ours, understand Putin’s maneuvers

Alexander Khaldey

In fact, an expert is not a narrow specialist like a gumboil, as Kozma Prutkov said, but a person who understands what is happening much more than everyone else. But regarding the appointment of a new leadership of the Cabinet of Ministers of Russia, experts agreed on one common phrase: “I don’t understand” - and further variations on this theme:

“I don’t understand why Putin appointed Medvedev”

"The sum does not change by changing the places of the terms"

"People are tired of the old lineup and need to let off steam"

"For a new game we need new key team players"

"They don't change horses midstream"

“There are no new personnel, Putin has a personnel shortage”

“The same faces again for 6 years, there’s nothing to wait for, God save Russia!”

"A popular president has unpopular ministers. This is a mistake"

And similar statements, the depth of which raises questions - are these really what experts say? Or is it a gathering of grandfathers in the yard, gathered to knock on dominoes? A gathering of pique vests discussing whether Hoover is a head or not and whether he would put his finger in Hindenburg's mouth or not? Why invite an expert for an interview if he begins with the words “I don’t understand...” I specifically do not mention the names of the experts, but there are publicists and writers, and doctors of economic sciences, and Putin’s supporters, and opponents, and neutrals, and who is not here.

It’s not even the naivety of the experts that is shocking—it’s the degree of their immaturity that is shocking. Such things can be said by idle Internet residents, wandering from blog to blog and expressing all their accumulated life wisdom in three censored words out of ten written. But experts need to see a little deeper and understand a little more. Otherwise, what kind of experts are these? These are delegates from the party of pensioners, not experts.

Their first reproach to Putin is the appointment of Medvedev. Say, twenty-five again. Weak, divorced from reality, unpopular, the largest anti-rating, boring, and so on. And the deputy prime ministers are also not new, they exchanged chairs - and that’s where all the changes ended. And we are waiting for changes, as Tsoi sang on the eve of perestroika, not by night be remembered. That's all expert wisdom. This is the main pool of popular “talking heads” who constantly comment on what is happening on YouTube.

However, all the answers to all the puzzling questions have long been given. Experts don’t even need to think - just monitor some federal analytical sites. You may not like them, but some materials are simply worth taking note of. You may not like them, you may not agree with them, but you need to know them. Just if you call yourself an expert, then go to the main sites and save Rome, taking into account all the latest news.

And it has already been said more than once - look with an unclouded look at everything that is happening around. And you will see the following: Putin created the most politically weak government for the first time. And for the first time he created the most technically powerful government. There they no longer lobby for the interests of clans, but carry out specific tasks of the president. To do this, it was not necessary to make a long trip “through the Far East” and change the Constitution. 77% of the votes given to Putin in the elections were enough.

Why Medvedev? Yes, precisely because the prime minister is no longer a politician dragging his clans along with him, but a character suspended in the air, separated from all clans. Not a queen, but a hanging pawn, as they say in chess. For what? And then, now all decisions in the government are made by the president. Is this what you've wanted all these years? Here you go, get it. Now the government is not a club of interests, but an apparatus of officials without an opinion, to whom, figuratively speaking, they will say “Lie down and die!” - they will lie down and die. But they won’t put forward conditions, be capricious and bargain, “I want it or I don’t want it.” What would have happened if anyone had become prime minister instead of Medvedev? The lines of lobbyists would immediately begin. The elites would begin to believe that it would be profitable to betray Putin and undermine the new prime minister, or to wait. Is this the state with which, during a war, a country must do urgent things and be governed and united?

The Magomedov trial and the elimination of Shuvalov, Dvorkovich and Prikhodko showed that Medvedev is now not a player, but a piece on the board. It is useless to seek his protection - he no longer resolves such issues. He is now a "technical prime minister". This is right? Right. Is it so difficult to understand? Not difficult. So what's the deal? Where does this stream of whining come from?

Next, the expert, in addition to understanding the meaning of the visible process, must observe and compare. Putin weakened the government as a place of compromise between clans and strengthened it, turning it into a working body - and it’s too early to judge, since the names of ministers have not yet been named. But the role of the new government in the political process is already visible. Isn't this the action that should have been taken on the eve of serious changes? Where is your expertise, gentlemen experts?

What is Putin doing by putting the government “in a box,” as they say in the government apparatus? He issues his first Decree “On the national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024.” As the Kremlin press service reports, the document contains a number of instructions that cover social, economic, environmental and other issues of the country's development. There are specific things:

1. Ensure a breakthrough in scientific, social and economic development.

2. Provide conditions for stable growth of real incomes of Russians.

3. Guarantee an increase in the level of pension provision above the level of inflation.

4. Ensure that the life expectancy of Russian citizens increases to 78 years by 2024, and by 2030 to 80 years.

5. Reduce the poverty level in the country by 2 times.

6. Improve living conditions for at least 5 million families annually. Over 6 years for 30 million people.

7. Include Russia among the five largest economies in the world.

How and due to what is another question for another conversation. If these solutions are not found, others will find them. Troubles must be resolved as they arise. Nobody will pray for this composition of the government. The role of Timoshenko, Budyonny and Voroshilov in the Headquarters of Stalin's Supreme High Command also changed as the war progressed. What interests us now is not the mode of action of the ministers, but the character of the government - whether it is new or not. Have there been such specific tasks before? Were not. There were more general ones. Because the government was not brought under complete subordination to the president. Now the task cannot be more specific. Why? Is it because for the first time since the times of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, the government is subordinate to the president without outside influence?

That is, we see that the control object has been brought into a controlled state. Roughly speaking, all the Trotskys were removed from there, and now there are solid Kaganovichs and Voroshilovs there. That is, there is no longer “every gopher is an agronomist,” but an army and a commander, as it should be. Orders are not discussed, but rather carried out. Failure to comply with an order will result in a tribunal.

The composition of the government and the content of Putin’s first Decree after his appointment tell every sober person, whether he is an expert or just out for a walk, that Putin is as serious as never before in all the previous times. He is preparing very seriously. Changes have begun, and they began not with the bringing of bright cult and charismatic figures into the government, but with the maximum muting of any brightness in the composition of the cabinet. The Cabinet of Ministers is not a congress of child prodigies and contenders for leadership in the party. The Cabinet of Ministers is routine and subordination. It’s like in the army - you don’t have to think, you have to execute. The president thinks. He also sets tasks. And those who play smart and don’t follow through will give “advice from outsiders,” as Lenin wrote.

Putin comes out of defense and goes on the offensive. He restructured the government for these purposes. Its composition is not a sacred cow. It is built in such a way that the exit is always open and people will change. But when the right time comes for this. Each stage of time has its own tasks and its own composition of the cabinet of ministers.

How do Western experts differ from homegrown ones? The ones who fell silent. They, unlike ours, understand Putin’s maneuvers. They feel the intentions for which all this is being done. They do not experience illusions or joy. Seizing control of an army is always a serious gain before a battle. Trump can only dream of such control over his government. Putin does it. We will see the results soon.

He who has eyes, let him see. And everything beyond this is from the evil one.

On Monday, May 7, the official inauguration ceremony of Vladimir Putin, who has been elected for a fourth term, will take place. After the inauguration, the government will resign, and, in accordance with the law, a new cabinet must be formed within two weeks.

On Friday, May 4, the presidential press secretary said that the exact date for submitting the candidacy for a new prime minister “is the exclusive prerogative of the President of Russia.” There is no reliable information about what the composition and structure of the new government will be.

Dmitry Peskov answered questions from Gazeta.Ru about candidates for the post of prime minister, about possible “losses” in the government and appointments to key posts: “it’s still okay to ask such questions.”

There is no answer even to the question of what will be published first: the presidential decree on national development goals until 2024 (it is being prepared by the head of the State Duma) or the name of the new prime minister.

Against the backdrop of a complete lack of official information, “Kremlin experts”, as well as numerous sources, are giving out more and more new versions of resignations and appointments. Political scientists have reached a consensus on some positions.

Fourth term prime minister

Over the past year, Belousov has been busy preparing a six-year plan for Putin’s socio-economic development of the country, and in the spring, together with Anton Vaino, he worked on a decree defining “national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period until 2024.”

Shuvalov himself, in response to a direct question about his future, said that “I want to work where the president says,” adding that “I am happy with any job that the president gives.”

The plan provides for an increase in spending on healthcare, education and infrastructure by 10 trillion rubles, reported. Dmitry Peskov said that this figure does not correspond to reality. Head Tatyana Golikova estimated the cost of the plan at 8 trillion rubles. Belousov admitted that the “budget maneuver” was being worked out.

It is possible to increase spending on “human capital” and infrastructure by reducing spending on defense and national security, experts say. This process has already begun in Russia. The latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recorded a 20% decline in defense spending in 2017.

“The Russian army has carried out large-scale work on technical and technological renewal. This process is basically complete. And therefore, the peak of expenses for technological re-equipment has passed,” Peskov explained the decrease in expenses.

In addition, Belousov aimed to reduce poverty and create sustainable growth in real incomes of the population, which were declining in 2014-2017.

“This is an increase in real pensions, an increase in pensions above inflation, as the president said, and this is a halving of the poverty level by 2024. These are also very challenging goals, and they have to be achieved,” said the assistant to the head of state.

Contenders for management of the military-industrial complex

During the May holidays, information appeared in the media that Igor Sechin, head of Russia, could become deputy prime minister. The company quickly denied this rumor, saying that under the terms of the contract he was required to work for the company for another two years.

The Ministry of Armor, if Shoigu leaves it, could be headed by the governor of the Tula region or the commander-in-chief of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation.

Experts and the media paint good prospects - he can retain the post of head and at the same time become deputy prime minister.

The ex-minister is tipped to return

Alexei Kudrin, who previously served as head and deputy prime minister, could also become deputy chairman of the government. Kudrin, who headed the Center for Strategic Research, was tasked with preparing a strategy for the country's development until 2024. The document was previously presented to the president, and in April of this year it was posted on the CSR website.

It is also likely that Kudrin may be tasked with creating and heading the Center for Public Administration Efficiency, which may report personally to the president. The ex-minister recently spoke with Dmitry Medvedev about how to modernize the state apparatus.

On Friday, May 4, the Center for Social Development presented the report “The State as a Platform,” which contains proposals for the government’s transition to digital. This will be dealt with by the same Center, which will be headed by the Deputy Prime Minister or Minister.

There is a significant obstacle to Kudrin's return to the government. He has a difficult relationship with Dmitry Medvedev. In 2011, Medvedev, as president of the Russian Federation, fired Kudrin from the government after a series of careless statements by the latter.

An alternative to a position in the Cabinet is a position in the presidential administration. The British, citing its sources, reported that “under Kudrin” a position would be created as a representative of the head of state on international economic cooperation to restore relations with the West.

Kudrin himself has not decided whether he is ready to return to the government or not. “I’m not going back anywhere and I haven’t commented on this topic for a long time. In my opinion, all these newspaper canards are ahead of the possible events that could happen,” he said. Representatives of Kudrin do not comment on rumors about his “comeback”.

Tolstoy as a mirror of Russian culture

The hottest debate in the media space arises around the figure of Vladimir Medinsky: will he be reappointed as Minister of Culture or not? There are many claims: from an allegedly compiled doctoral dissertation to corruption scandals and the creation of non-competitive conditions for film distributors.

And if he leaves, who will replace him? It is possible that this is the Presidential Advisor on Cultural Affairs. Or the film director’s creature - a deputy. They are also wooing a candidate from the opposite ideological camp for the post of head - the prime minister's press secretary.

Rumormakers are “dismissing” the Minister of Education and Science. She may return to the presidential administration, becoming an adviser on interfaith relations. The topic of her doctoral dissertation is “

A miracle did not happen - the new cabinet of ministers was headed by Dmitry Medvedev, and since the economic bloc was entrusted to the liberal Anton Siluanov, the course, apparently, will remain the same for now. At the same time, the authorities shuffled the deck of ever-memorable functionaries, transferring them to new positions within the government - Vitaly Mutko, Olga Golodets and others.

Experts differ in their assessments of the composition of the cabinet, noting that while oil prices are on the rise, a sharp change in course may not be advisable. But if the situation changes and gets worse, the unpopular government can be easily and simply “demolished.”

On the eve of Dmitry Medvedev’s reappointment, an event occurred that the Kremlin seemed to gradually focus special attention on: President Vladimir Putin discussed the country’s development prospects with the head of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI) Svetlana Chupsheva. It is ASI that carries out strategic planning of government activities in the economic and social sphere, and this structure is directly supervised by the President of Russia. In fact, the course that the government will take is entrusted to be drawn by Chupsheva - under the watchful eye of Putin - and not Medvedev at all. In turn, technical supervision of how the government will implement the ideas of the ASI, it seems, will be entrusted to Konstantin Chuychenko, the head of the control department of the presidential administration, who is tipped for the post of head of the government apparatus. Here they are, two new “centers of power” of the executive branch, ideological and security. Two “attached” ones, which will entail the new old office.

Why did the president decide to leave Dmitry Medvedev at the head of the government? Everything is as simple as a steamed turnip: the new cabinet will have to launch a number of unpopular reforms - in particular, raise the retirement age and abandon a number of social guarantees

Alexey Kudrin was “assigned to accountant”

But just a few days ago it seemed that everything would be different: strategic planning of the government’s work would be entrusted to the Center for Strategic Research, whose chief, Alexei Kudrin, was even nominated by the influential Bloomberg and Financial Times to become the new prime minister. It seems that Kudrin himself was waiting for this appointment. But, it turns out, it was in vain - as a consolation prize he was offered to head the Accounts Chamber. And Kudrin said he would think about it. Which, in general, is far-sighted: the experience of Tatyana Golikova, who was invited to become the deputy prime minister of the new cabinet, shows that a joint venture can become a good career springboard. It’s not a fact that Kudrin will accept United Russia’s offer to head the joint venture. The fact is that the SP is a body of parliamentary control, including over the activities of the government. Anton Siluanov has, in fact, been entrusted with carrying out this task. To the faithful Kudrinets. Chupsheva makes plans, Chuychenko monitors their execution, and Siluanov, in fact, implements and executes them. By and large, they will ask him. And Kudrin was assigned to control Siluanov! Truly, the one who came up with all this is not without a sense of humor. Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov joked well about Kudrin’s new appointment: “It was planned to return as a reformer prime minister, but it turned out that he was appointed accountant.” “Kudrin may have gone too far by publishing an article in the Financial Times about his future appointment,” suggested American economist Paul Craig Roberts, a former official in the Ronald Reagan administration. “For a long time he managed to enjoy the loyalty of the Russian president, but now that is in the past.”

But why did the president decide to leave Dmitry Medvedev at the head of the government? Everything is as simple as that: the new cabinet will have to launch a number of unpopular reforms - in particular, raising the retirement age and abandoning a number of social guarantees. “Medvedev’s “popularity” among the people is such that this word can only be put in quotation marks,” explains Valentin Katasonov, a professor at the Department of International Finance at MGIMO. – Even our servile sociological services cannot give him a more or less decent rating. And in terms of anti-rating, Medvedev is ahead of all his closest competitors.” And he remained at the head of the cabinet for only one reason, the expert believes: “Medvedev is nothing more than a tool. To cut, to bleed." A proven tool for dirty work. Which the prime minister, in general, immediately confirmed the very first thing after his reappointment: “A decision needs to be made; the previous framework for the retirement age was adopted a very long time ago.”

There is, however, another explanation for the fact that Medvedev was abandoned. “We don’t know what pressure the West exerted in terms of the need to retain the current prime minister,” reflects economist Mikhail Khazin. – But I am convinced that such pressure was exerted. Medvedev is not liked in Beijing, and therefore, from the Western point of view, it was very desirable to keep him.”

Andrei Illarionov, economist, former adviser to the President of Russia:

– The government will work as long as the Russian President decides. There is, relatively speaking, a substitution of government tasks; the cabinet is given obviously easily achievable goals, and this has always been the case. In 2007, the goal was to enter the five leading economies of the world by 2017 - the task was completed within a year. Either there were gross miscalculations in the forecasts, or the task was initially too simple. Then a similar goal, to enter the top five economies in the world, was set in 2008 and 2011–2013. Now a goal that has been repeatedly achieved in the past is formulated as a special achievement for the future. In fact, there are no big complaints against the government - why change it? It would be another matter if the Kremlin set real tasks for the cabinet – then the demand would be different.

Look who's gone

A few words about those who were “asked” from the government. First of all, attention is drawn to the resignation of the chief of staff of the government, Sergei Prikhodko, who was involved in the scandalous story with the demimonde lady Nastya Rybka. Prikhodko was considered one of the most influential figures in the previous government, and therefore even a loud scandal did not become a reason for his immediate resignation. But he didn’t keep his portfolio for another reason - he was too distracted by foreign policy issues, in which he was considered a good specialist. Whereas time demanded a more integral figure in this post, completely concentrated on monitoring the government's execution of what he was entrusted to do. By the way, it was Prikhodko who controlled the implementation of the May presidential decrees, but he did this, let’s say, not too selflessly.

Our publication has already reported that there is unlikely to be a place for Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov in the new government, and we were not mistaken. Another Deputy Prime Minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, is also looking for a new job - apparently, it will be the Skolkovo Foundation (Dvorkovich is a member of the board of trustees of this foundation). It’s just not entirely clear whether this is a reward or retribution. In the meantime, the fund is headed by billionaire Viktor Vekselberg, to whom more and more questions arise in power every day.

Look who's come

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak also worked in the previous government, but his role was significantly less important: he mostly supervised issues related to Crimea, and before that, with Olympic construction, being distracted from time to time by various emergency situations, which he handled very well . Now Kozak has been entrusted with overseeing industry and energy - this was previously done by Dvorkovich and Shuvalov. Their supervision gave the opportunity to strengthen the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov - even the numerous scandals in which he got involved during the six years of his ministerial activity did not affect his career. Now it will be different: Kozak has a tough temperament and will probably confront Manturov in full, both for low economic growth and, possibly, for scandalous stories related to Rostec and Russian Helicopters. In these two structures, Kozak’s new appointment is, to put it mildly, not happy.

So for the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev, the appointment of Alexei Gordeev as Deputy Prime Minister is the same as the elevation of Kozak for Manturov. Beginning of the End. Gordeev is not just a former Minister of Agriculture - he ate more than one dog on him. It was under Gordeev that the entire current system of state support for the agro-industrial complex was created. Under Gordeev, Russia again began to export rather than import grain for the first time since Stalin's times. Under Gordeev, the first quotas on meat imports were introduced - this was 15 years ago, and at the same time in Russia they first heard about the protection of domestic agricultural producers and about import substitution. At Gordeev’s instigation, the Land Code and the federal law “On the turnover of agricultural land” were adopted - key documents that anticipated the further successful development of the industry. Over the 10 years that Gordeev was in charge of agriculture, government funding for the industry increased fivefold - evaluate the lobbying abilities of this manager! And now Alexander Tkachev will have a hard time - the demand from him will be the highest. However, Tkachev can always retreat to his native Kuban - which he most likely will do.

If Dmitry Kozak was promoted within the framework of the deputy prime minister’s post, then his colleague Olga Golodets was, on the contrary. In fact, the entire social sphere was taken away from Golodets, except for culture, but they loaded it with extremely neglected sports and physical education. It was also decided to reduce funding for the latter by almost three times - it is unlikely that significant breakthroughs can be expected with such initial ones. At the same time, Golodets was given the responsibility for hosting the 2018 FIFA World Cup, and the one who was supposed to bear this responsibility—Deputy Prime Minister for Sports Vitaly Mutko—successfully changed his direction of activity, heading construction and regional policy. This appointment caused more than mixed reactions. “It’s scary to even think about what Mutko will do in regional politics,” says economist Mikhail Delyagin, “and the task set by the president to increase housing commissioning to 120 million square meters per year can, in all likelihood, simply be forgotten.”

For the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev, the appointment of Alexei Gordeev as Deputy Prime Minister is the same as the elevation of Kozak for Manturov. Beginning of the End

Andrey Bunich, economist, head of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Tenants of Russia:

– The duality of the situation is as follows: the government intends to continue the previous economic policy both in macroeconomics and in the fiscal sphere, but it is the continuation of the current course that is the main risk. Economic growth is impossible within the framework of this policy. And Medvedev has already announced that to implement the new May decrees it will be necessary to find an additional 8 trillion rubles. In such a situation, it is much more likely that the economy will decline, rather than grow, if, of course, oil prices go down. The Kremlin will have to sacrifice foreign policy, and this could cause a domino effect and undermine the situation within the country. In turn, the West will accept concessions, but will not give anything in return; we already went through this in the early 90s. In the meantime, the entire economic strategy boils down to cutting social obligations, raising taxes and intercepting money somewhere.

Is the resignation of the new government just around the corner?

How long will the new old government of Dmitry Medvedev last? Expert opinions on this matter differ significantly. “Now that oil prices have risen, the government’s dead-end course is not so obvious,” explains economist Andrei Bunich. “But as soon as black gold becomes cheaper, the secret will become clear, and Medvedev may still be dismissed.” At the same time, Medvedev’s government can work for a year or two. And even more, opposition politician Yuri Boldyrev believes: “Anyone who was seriously counting on some kind of renewal can postpone their hopes for at least six more years. “No ‘left turn’, no political turn towards greater social and national responsibility is foreseen.” However, the president will be able to replace the government when he deems it necessary, believes Pavel Salin, director of the Center for Political Science Research at the Financial University: “Everything will depend on the external situation - oil prices and Western policy towards our country. If the president decides that the economic course needs to be adjusted, the government will be dismissed. But if everything goes on as in previous years, then this government will not change soon. I believe this government is not for six years, but for three or four years.” However, this time will be enough to carry out all unpopular decisions.

Most experts assess the extension of Medvedev's prime minister term either ironically or negatively: almost no one expects a breakthrough. Against this background, the assessment given by economist Mikhail Khazin seems paradoxical: “I don’t think that changes in the government are a bad signal. As a person who knows a little about hardware games and government, I cannot help but admit that the liberal team has been dealt a very serious blow. Let me explain: the economic recession will continue, presidential decrees will not be implemented, and the president is unlikely to like it. And this fall all this will inevitably lead to the resignation of the government.”