Nobody needs a power. Who will be the first to declare war on independent Kurdistan? The referendum changed the Middle East forever

If Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region within Iraq, declares independence from Baghdad, Tehran will close the border with this region, the secretary of the Supreme Council said national security Iran (the country's key security agency) Ali Shamkhani.

“The border agreement is valid exclusively with the central government of Iraq, and the separation of Kurdistan from the central authorities of Iraq will mean the closure of all border crossings on the common (with Iraqi Kurdistan - Gazeta.Ru) border,” RIA Novosti quotes Shamkhani as saying.

Oil exports to Iran are one of the important sources of income for the Iraqi Kurdish government. Export is carried out using tanker trucks, since the border passes through difficult mountainous terrain and it is quite difficult to lay a pipeline there.

Therefore, closing the border and stopping transport communication will inevitably affect the economic situation in the autonomy in the event of its separation from Iraq.

Another state neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, is moving its military units to the border with the autonomy. General Staff Turkish army officially announced on Monday, September 18, that it was starting exercises on the border with the region preparing for the referendum. The exercises are conducted according to the scenario of “possible counteraction to terrorists,” the department said in a statement. IN in social networks Many photographs have already appeared of armored vehicles massed in the area of ​​the Silopi border crossing, the main crossing between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at the level of political statements, has constantly said that he does not recognize the idea of ​​holding a plebiscite in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Turkish leader is currently on an official visit to New York, where the 72nd session of the UN General Assembly is taking place. Here he met with the head of the White House, Donald Trump, and agreed with his American colleague to continue working together“to establish stability in the region and defeat terrorism.”

“Leaders confirmed that they reject the planned referendum of the Kurdistan Regional Government on September 25 and that there will be serious consequences,” the White House press office said in a statement.

Almost all states that in one way or another have their interests in the Middle East have officially spoken out against the referendum of the Iraqi Kurds. However, the government in Erbil, the capital of the autonomy, is consistently moving towards a nationwide plebiscite, the results of which are beyond doubt among experts: the majority of the population will vote for independence. The President of the autonomous region, Masoud Barzani, said on September 19 that the referendum could be postponed only if Baghdad and the international community guarantee that the Kurds will still be granted independence.

Unity for Independence

The topic of independence of Iraqi Kurdistan from the government in Baghdad has been raised many times since 2003, after the occupation of Iraq by the United States and its allies. The Kurds, fighting on the side of the Americans, played an important role in the war against Saddam Hussein.

The President of Autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, has announced almost every year his intention to secede from federal Iraq in order to create his own state.

Since the outbreak of uprisings in the Arab regions in 2011, the opposition within the autonomy has accused Barzani of using declarations of independence as a populist method to distract the population from domestic political and economic problems.

But relations between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq began to deteriorate much earlier - they were constantly persecuted by the Arabs from the moment the independence of Iraq was declared (until chemical attacks in 1988).

However, after the start of the operation to liberate Mosul from militants, “ Islamic State"(IS, an organization banned in Russia) in October 2016, the topic of the referendum began to take on more and more tangible features. By the end of 2016, Kurdish Peshmarga armed forces stopped participating in the assault on Mosul. The political leadership of the autonomy set a course for organizing a vote on independence.

The reasons for this are quite simple: the Iraqi army, which could have opposed the Kurdish government, was significantly weakened during the battle for Mosul. Estimated former chairman Iraqi federal government Nuri al-Maliki, during the liberation of the second largest city in the country, about 20 thousand army and police soldiers were killed and wounded. However, the Peshmarga's losses amounted to only a few hundred.

Its total number today is estimated at 100 thousand people. This exceeds the combined strength of the Iraqi army and federal police.

Secondly, against the backdrop of the fight against IS, the problems of Iraqi Kurdistan became visible at the global level. Politicians in Erbil issued reminders that it was the Iraqi army, due to its ineffectiveness, that lost hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of territory and thousands of weapons to IS militants. Although the Peshmarga lost some territories during the summer offensive of the Islamic State in 2014, without offering any resistance (in particular, the flight of the Peshmarga became the cause of the genocide of the Yazidis in the Shingal region).

In addition, the Kurds became the owners of the richest deposits in the vicinity of the city of Kirkuk. Until the summer of 2014, the area was controlled by the federal government of Baghdad. But after the start of the IS offensive, the army and police fled Kirkuk in panic.

Before the radicals captured the city and the oil fields, the Kurds managed to occupy them and create defensive lines. Since then, Erbil has owned Kirkuk oil. Its export to Turkey and Iran is one of the main ways to fill the autonomy’s budget.

The referendum should confirm Kirkuk's belonging to Iraqi Kurdistan.

Today, the issue of a plebiscite has consolidated the previously irreconcilable political forces of Iraqi Kurdistan - the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP, the ruling party under the leadership of Masoud Barzani) and the opposition Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK, despite the fact that it proclaimed as its official doctrine the creation of a broad confederation throughout the Middle East, nevertheless yielded to the nationalist impulses of its supporters and declared that it advocated the creation of an independent Kurdish state. At the same time, democratic confederalism, from the point of view of the PKK, involves the creation of diversity cultural autonomies(or ethnic autonomies) within the framework of the Middle East confederation instead of nation-states, the enmity between which is the cause of permanent wars in the region.

Kurds - largest nation in a world that does not have its own state. Their number is estimated at 25-40 million people. The largest Kurdish diasporas live in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Before the start of the Arab Spring, the creation of an independent state by the Kurds was a matter of debate. But after governments in Iraq and Syria began to lose control over their territories, the Kurds took advantage of the situation to strengthen themselves.

Against the chain reaction

The desire of the Iraqi Kurds for independence was not supported by any of the states in the Middle East, except Israel. The fears of Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq are understandable: the proclamation of one Kurdish state could lead to a parade of sovereignties of the Kurdish states (or to annexation to an already proclaimed state). Worse yet, other minorities in the region may also come up with separatist initiatives.

For example, Christian Assyrians still do not have any autonomous entities, although they have repeatedly declared their claims to such a format of existence.

Not all Sunni Arabs want to live together with Shiite Arabs. Big problems with the Sunnis among the Yazidis.

The US opposes Erbil's initiatives because initially, since the occupation in 2003, Washington proclaimed the territorial integrity of Iraq, but changing it political system- from authoritarian socialist to liberal democratic. In defiance of the Americans, their main ally in the Middle East, Israel, acts.

On September 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke in support of a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. The editor of the Yezidi Press, Rustam Rzgoyan, believes that Tel Aviv is behaving consistently. “It is not surprising that Israel actively supports the independence of the Iraqi Kurds,” Rzgoyan said in an interview with Gazeta.Ru. “You need to understand that Tel Aviv has long provided them with military and financial support.

The Israeli military trained the Kurdish military and, according to some sources, stood at the origins of the creation of the special services of Iraqi Kurdistan - Asayish and Parastin. They rely on the Kurds as a counterweight to the Arabs according to the principle “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

However, editor Rzgoyan does not believe that Erbil will agree to a real declaration of independence and separation from federal Iraq in conditions where it is not supported by the international community. “Even if the referendum takes place,” says the expert, “the Kurds are unlikely to declare independence. Even the Turks, Masoud Barzani’s closest allies, will not allow this. Most likely, the referendum is a way to blackmail Baghdad in order to receive large dividends. It is no secret that Ankara and Baghdad, which oppose Kurdish independence, exerted great financial assistance Erbil. Even the Peshmarga budget is allocated by Baghdad.”

Rzgoyan is confident that without the support of the leading powers, the vote of the Iraqi Kurds to create their own state will be purely formal, without serious practical consequences.

Illustration copyright AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The United States, Great Britain and the international coalition fighting the Islamic State group banned in Russia have asked to postpone the referendum for two years.

Iraqi Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani said it was too late to postpone the referendum.

• Israel advocated the creation of a Kurdish state
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Why is the referendum being held?

Barzani and his allies in the separatist campaign argue that after years of suppressing Kurdish interests, the time has come to create an independent Kurdish state.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), based in the city of Erbil, also accuses the central government in Baghdad of systematically excluding Kurds from a system of equal distribution of power and resources.

Iraqi Kurds backing the referendum say independence is a "natural right" and the creation of a Kurdish state would bring stability to the region.

What question is asked in a referendum?

Voters must answer "yes" or "no" to the question: "Do you want the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdish territories outside the Kurdistan Region to become an independent state?"

"Kurdish territories" about which we're talking about, these are disputed territories under the control of the Kurdish Peshmerga paramilitary forces.

The territories include the oil-rich area around the city of Kirkuk and Kurdish cities in the northern Iraqi provinces.

Who votes and where?

More than five million voters - mostly Iraqi Kurds - are eligible to cast their ballots, provided they have registered to vote using food ration applications - they confirm permanent residence in the Autonomous Region of Kurdistan or in disputed areas controlled by the Kurds.

Arabs, Turkmen and Yazidis, as well as Assyrian and Chaldean Christians can vote if they have Required documents; the same applies to voters in diaspora communities.

What does the Iraqi government think about the vote?

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi says the move is "illegal" and "unconstitutional."

The Iraqi military said the referendum would affect the ongoing conflict with the Islamic State group, which still controls parts of disputed areas such as the city of Hawiyah in Kirkuk province.

Do all Iraqi Kurds support independence?

Some Iraqi Kurdish politicians, businessmen and public figures founded the "Not Now" movement, arguing that in the current economic situation and security concerns it was premature to hold a referendum.

Some Iraqi Kurds are campaigning to delay the independence referendum.

Other campaigners say a referendum has no more legal force than a poll public opinion, and is used to strengthen Barzani’s personal and party authority.

They argue that the referendum will not bring true independence, but will only result in conflicts and economic problems.

Most Arab and Turkmen parties in the Kirkuk area boycotted the poll.

Yazidis, not subject to Iraqi-Kurdish rule in the conflict-ravaged and contested Sinjan region of Nineveh province, also refused to take part in the referendum.

What do Iraq's neighbors think?

Türkiye and Iran oppose the referendum. Ankara calls it a “historical mistake,” and Tehran calls it a “dangerous step.”

However, Ankara and Tehran have serious economic interests in Iraqi Kurdistan, which exports oil to the international market through the Turkish port city of Ceyhan and exchanges its crude oil for petroleum products from Iran.

The Syrian government has not yet announced a specific position on the referendum, but Damascus would likely prefer to preserve Iraq's territorial integrity during a period of widespread regional instability.

What do Kurds in neighboring countries think?

Syrian Kurds, who are on the front line of the fight against ISIS, reject the idea of ​​​​creating an independent Kurdish state and demand autonomy only in the northern part of Syria, which they call Rojava.

However, at the same time, they claim that they are ready to respect the decision of the majority of Iraqi Kurds in the referendum, regardless of the result.

Turkish Kurds support the idea of ​​independence, and some Turkish-Kurdish parties give great importance referendum.

However, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) sees the vote as a propaganda stunt aimed at keeping Barzani in power.

The PKK insists that the Kurds support "democratic autonomy" instead.

Most Iranian Kurdish parties support the upcoming referendum, hoping that the Iranian Kurdish region can somewhat follow the example of its Iraqi Kurdish neighbors.

What could be the result?

If the referendum goes as planned, a majority of voters are likely to vote for secession. But Iraq's central government says it does not recognize the results of the vote.

The UN Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) said it would not monitor the vote, so there are no official observers at the referendum.

Representatives of the Iraqi Kurds say that all necessary measures security to prevent unrest during and after the referendum.

However, armed clashes are possible in disputed areas, mainly in Kirkuk, where the Iraqi army planned to deploy troops for an offensive against IS in the Hawiyah region, two days before the vote.

If the answer to the referendum is positive, but the Iraqi Kurds do not declare an independent state, then the result of the referendum will become a trump card in negotiations on territory and natural resources between the governments in Erbil and Baghdad.

Millions of Kurds living in Northern Iraq are taking part in a referendum on the country's independence. Iraq and Turkey do not hide their concern about this and threaten a tough response

A referendum on the independence of Kurdistan has begun in Northern Iraq. Millions of Kurds living here take part in it.

to be announced in three days.

As experts emphasize, even if the overwhelming majority of referendum participants support statehood, this does not mean the immediate declaration of an independent Kurdistan. At the same time, Kurdish leader Masoud Barazani will receive the authority of his people to negotiate self-determination with the authorities of Iraq and neighboring countries.

“We have been waiting for this day for a hundred years,” say the Kurds at the polling stations. “With the help of Allah and the will of the people, we will find our own state.”

Iraq has an extremely negative attitude towards the referendum, accusing the Kurds of attempting to divide the country and threatening retaliatory actions. The head of the country's government, Haider Al-Abadi, made it quite clear that things could lead to an armed conflict.

Turkey issued a similar warning. At a meeting chaired by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday, September 23, the Turkish government outlined a set of actions to respond to the Kurdish referendum. The Turkish leadership said it understands that Ankara is “serious” and “reserves the right to any development of events.” It was emphasized that “the referendum poses a direct threat to Turkey’s national security.” There are fears here that a positive outcome of the referendum in Northern Iraq will strengthen separatist sentiments in Turkey itself, where Kurds make up 18% of the population.

The Turkish army has already moved its troops to the border with Iraq under the guise of large-scale exercises. According to international media, there are large formations of armored vehicles and infantry here. At the same time, all border crossings are closed, and Turkish citizens in Iraq are asked to urgently return home.

Another country with a significant Kurdish population, Iran, also opposes the referendum. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic Ali Shamkhani said that if a referendum on independence is held in Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran will close the border with neighboring country. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in the Iranian Kurdistan region have been placed on high alert.

Turkey, the United States and other countries have advised the Kurds in Iraq to cancel the Sept. 25 referendum, fearing that tensions between the regime in Baghdad and the Kurds in the north will lead to war in Iraq and Syria, which also have Kurdish minorities.

Let us remember that the only country that supports the independence of Kurdistan is Israel.

A referendum on independence is being held in autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. Official Baghdad and neighboring Iran and Türkiye are categorically against the plebiscite of the Iraqi Kurds and threaten them with sanctions. Meanwhile, the day before, the first local elections were held in Syrian Kurdistan, which is also seeking autonomy. RT found out how the geopolitical situation in the region will change after the vote and whether the Iraqi and Syrian Kurds will be able to agree on the creation of a single national state.

Reuters Thayer Al-Sudani

A referendum on independence is being held in Iraqi Kurdistan. Despite the request to postpone the plebiscite made by the main ally of the Iraqi Kurds, the United States, and severe pressure from Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara, Erbil did not cancel or postpone the voting date. It began, as planned, on September 25 at 7:00 Moscow time.

• Kurds supporting the Kurdistan independence referendum in Erbil, Iraq
• Reuters
• Azad Lashkari

Today's Iraqi Kurdistan is an autonomous public education within Iraq. In 1990, it gained de facto independence from Baghdad after American-allied local Kurdish forces drove Saddam Hussein's forces out of the region during Operation Desert Storm. In 2006, the region inhabited by Kurds received the status of broad autonomy under the Iraqi constitution. Own president, parliament, laws, even your own armed forces— Kurdistan already has all this. Now we are talking about bringing the process of state building to its logical conclusion - about recognizing independence. This desire is reinforced by constant friction with official Baghdad.

In 2014, after another conflict, the Iraqi government stopped subsidizing the autonomy's budget. As a result government agencies The Kurds were faced with the problem of underfunding, which was solved by putting all oil exports from the region under their control. This is how Iraqi Kurdistan gained financial independence.

However, the problem with the current referendum is not that any region of Iraq is seeking secession. The Kurds also conduct voting in areas that are not formally within the boundaries of the autonomy. First of all, this is Kirkuk - the oil capital of northern Iraq, where both Arabs (Sunnis and Shiites) and Kurds, Assyrians, Yezidis, and Turkomans live. Kurdish Peshmerga forces de facto control this city - it was they who liberated it from IS* in 2014. The question put to the referendum is formulated in such a way that it concerns autonomy and other regions of Iraq.

“Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdish territories beyond it to become an independent state?” - written on the ballot paper.

Against all

Not a single state in the world, with the exception of Israel, supported holding a referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan. The United States, together with the EU and the UN, offered the Kurds an alternative - to postpone the referendum for two years. In return, the United States pledged to provide support for the new plebiscite at the UN level. The Americans motivated their position by the fact that the question Kurdish referendum could antagonize the main forces fighting IS*: the Kurds, the USA, Turkey, Iraq. But Erbil refused to make concessions.

The referendum is a challenge for all neighbors of Iraqi Kurdistan: after all, the Kurdish population lives in the border areas of Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Iran and Turkey are afraid that a referendum in Iraq will give impetus to separatists within these countries, and are trying to put pressure on the Iraqi Kurds.

On September 18, 2017, the Turkish military began exercises on the borders with Iraqi Kurdistan. Six days later, the Iranians initiated their maneuvers. The heads of the general staffs of both countries agreed to coordinate actions on the Kurdish issue. In addition to military deterrence, measures of economic influence are also being developed. Iran has already closed its borders with Syrian Kurdistan.

Both countries have repeatedly stated that they will resort to all possible ways pressure on Erbil in the event of a referendum.

• Turkish military on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan
• Reuters
• Thayer Al-Sudani

“We demand a complete cancellation (of the referendum. - RT) so that we don’t have to impose sanctions,” Turkish government spokesman Bekir Bozdag said two days before the vote.

Earlier, Turkish President Recep Erdogan spoke about the possibility of introducing restrictive measures against Erbil. Now he has threatened to close the border with the autonomous entity from Turkey and hinted that he might suspend the import of Kurdish oil.

Ankara has the most serious leverage over the autonomous region: all oil from Iraqi Kurdistan goes there. However, sanctions are a double-edged sword: the economy and well-being of residents of Turkey’s poor southeast largely depend on cooperation with the region.

"Possibilities federal authorities Iraq is not enough to solve the problem by force,” a senior commented in a conversation with RT about the likelihood of the Iraqi army invading the Kurdish autonomy Researcher Center for Arabic and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Truevtsev.

According to him, the possibility of an invasion of Kurdistan by Turkey and Iran should be excluded. Ankara is planning an operation in Syria and is fighting the Kurdish underground on its territory, and therefore does not seek to start a war in another direction. An Iranian intervention “is fraught for Tehran itself, since it will be the very pretext that the Americans were looking for to strike Iran.”

Other Kurds

Against the background of the referendum in Iraq, another vote, held in regions populated by Kurds, went almost unnoticed. On September 22, elections for representatives of local administrations were held in Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria (this region is known as Rojava). In November, local council elections are due to take place, and in January 2018, elections to the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria (this is the name of the de facto autonomous formation of Syrian Kurds proclaimed in March 2016). Then the creation of this federation was not supported either in Damascus, or in Moscow, or in Washington. Now officials from Damascus and Washington have opposed the elections, although the latter is cooperating with the Syrian Kurds within the framework of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

The Kurdish National Council, aligned with the government of Iraqi Kurdistan, called on its supporters in Syria to boycott the elections in Rojava. The reason is ideological differences and the struggle for influence between the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which controls the Kurdish regions of Syria, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which holds power in the autonomous region of Iraq. At the same time, the Syrian Kurds themselves and the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party previously stated that they would respect the results of the referendum of their Iraqi brethren.

The PYD is a left-wing political force that is part of the Kurdistan Communities Union, an umbrella group of Kurdish parties led by Kurdistan Workers' Party leader Abdullah Ocalan.

• The funeral of YPG fighters, on the flags is a portrait of the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party Abdullah Ocalan, near the Syrian city of Derik, 2013.
• FABIO BUCCIARELLI

Ocalan, after he found himself in a Turkish prison in 1999, where he is serving a life sentence, carried out a total reassessment of his previous position on the Kurdish issue. What is fundamentally important is that he abandoned the struggle for the creation of a Kurdish national state and put forward the idea of ​​​​building a new structure based on “democratic confederalism.”

“Democratic confederalism in Kurdistan is an anti-nationalist movement. It aims to realize the rights and self-defense of peoples in promoting democracy in all parts of Kurdistan, without challenging existing political boundaries. Its goal is not to create a Kurdish nation-state,” Ocalan argues in his work “Democratic Confederalism.”

“The Syrian Kurds do not seek independence for the region. Rather, they want Syria to become a democratic state where all citizens have the same rights,” PYD leader Saleh Muslim explained his goals in an interview with the German news agency DPA.

Two projects for Kurdistan

Both the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the PYD consider the nation state to be a bourgeois entity that oppresses the free individual. Instead of creating a separate state for the Kurds, they advocate the formation of fundamentally new political structures, based on the voluntary unification of communities, the universal arming of the people, the maximum emancipation of women, secularization, the spread of the cooperative form of management in the economy and the transfer of the maximum possible powers to local authorities. This “anarchist” project, however, does not strictly oppose existing nation-states, but proposes to solve national problem by creating federations of Kurdish communities.

“Our movement seeks to create federal structures in Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq, open to all Kurds, which will create a confederal umbrella for all four parts of Kurdistan,” Ocalan emphasizes.

However, as observers note, when implemented, the stated ideas run into Kurdish nationalism, which dominates the consciousness of Kurdish militias.

“In general, this is a movement of Kurdish nationalists who seek to create a unified Kurdish state,” Vyacheslav Matuzov, president of the Society for Friendship and Business Cooperation with Arab Countries, commented on the situation in a conversation with RT.

The opponent of the project of Ocalan and other leftist Kurdish forces is the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party of Masoud Barzani in Iraqi Kurdistan. KDP is a conservative nationalist party that does not hide its desire for Kurdish national state. It was with her support that the Turks previously attacked PKK positions in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan.

• Masoud Barzani during the Kurdistan independence referendum
• Reuters
• Azad Lashkari

Ideological differences between the two main Kurdish political projects- is not the only thing shared by these people, who speak at least two Kurdish languages ​​- Kurmanji and Sorani. There are other political groups and clans within Iraqi Kurdistan that challenge the power of the Barzani clan. These are Gorran, the Kurdistan Islamic Group and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (the latter has its own armed forces and governs the east of the region). They are in favor of a referendum, but are preparing to fight Barzani after the plebiscite.

Landscape after the battle

An expert at the Middle East Institute, Sergei Balmasov, noted in a conversation with RT that Russia should pay close attention to the presidential and parliamentary elections in Iraqi Kurdistan, which are scheduled for November 1.

"The most serious problem for Barzani, these are pro-European groups and the Gorran faction,” the expert claims. — They accuse Barzani of corruption and agreements with Russia (with the Rosneft company. — RT), calling them opaque and going against the people."

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds himself, according to Balmasov, is using the referendum on independence to strengthen his position before the elections and to gain a bargaining chip in negotiations with Baghdad.

According to experts, if the federal government of Iraq shows restraint, then conflict can be avoided. Also, no one believes in a tough confrontation between Ankara and Erbil.

“Verbal rhetoric is one thing, but economics is another,” says Balmasov, referring to economic ties between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

As for the impact on political processes outside Iraq, the leftist Kurds competing with Barzani, under pressure from the bulk of the Kurdish population, inspired Iraqi referendum, will take a more nationalistic position.

“This will encourage Kurds in other countries, including Syria, to more clearly express their position,” the expert is convinced.

* “Islamic State” (IS, ISIS) is a terrorist group banned in Russia.

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A referendum on independence from Baghdad was held in Iraqi Kurdistan. According to preliminary data, more than 93% of plebiscite participants supported the idea of ​​declaring sovereignty. This is evidenced by data after processing about 9% of the ballots, RIA Novosti reports with reference to the Higher Independent Commission for Referendum and Elections in Kurdistan.

According to the same data, 6.71% of voters opposed secession from Iraq. In total, about 3.3 million people took part in the referendum, the turnout was 72.16%.

On the eve of the vote on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, UN mission personnel stationed in the autonomous region received a security briefing. The authorities recommended their employees not to leave their apartments and camps unless absolutely necessary. And if you go out, do so accompanied by other employees.

“The Arabs, Daesh (the Arabic abbreviation of the Islamic State banned in Russia), maybe the Iranians, anyone can blow up something,” one of the residents of the Dohuk province named Shamal told a Gazeta.Ru correspondent on the eve of the vote. “Those who are afraid of a strong and independent Kurdish state can ruin our holiday.” The referendum is a real holiday for us.”

Calm and quiet

The night before the referendum turned out to be unusually quiet in the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, Erbil. Usually, on the city's ring highway, expensive cars rush past each other until the early morning. It is along the ring road that many fashionable establishments are located, which are visited by wealthy residents of the capital and young people. But on the night before the vote, the highway was almost empty, and establishments closed earlier than usual due to a lack of customers.

Alaa Al-Marjani/Reuters A poster in support of a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan on the street of Erbil, September 24, 2017

The voting day itself also turned out to be surprisingly quiet and calm. In the autonomy it was declared a holiday. The streets, even in the very center of the city, around the ancient fortress on the hill, where thousands of citizens and guests usually walk, were surprisingly deserted. The atmosphere was nothing like the excitement that preceded voting day.

Polling stations were set up in schools, local government buildings and Erbil's central stadium.

Each precinct was guarded by a significant number of armed police, Peshmarga fighters and Asayish intelligence agencies. There were no armed patrols or special equipment directly on the streets.

Visitors were carefully searched several times before being allowed inside. Many who wanted to vote came in national Kurdish costumes, with autonomy flags or scarves in the national colors - red, white and green. Among the participants there were noticeably more young people than middle-aged or elderly people.

There were no incidents in Kirkuk, the most disputed city in Iraqi Kurdistan. In addition to Kurds, it is inhabited by large communities of Turkmen and Arabs. In the surrounding area there are rich oil deposits, which are one of the key factors tensions between Erbil and Baghdad. Polling stations were organized, according to the Independent High Commission for Elections, exclusively in areas inhabited by Kurds.

By lunchtime, the number of people wishing to vote at polling stations throughout the autonomy had increased noticeably. And by evening there were even queues in some places. Therefore, the polling stations closed not at 18:00, as originally planned, but at 19:00 local time.

Somewhere later, if there were still those willing to take part in the plebiscite.

Lots of statements without action

Throughout the day, loud statements appeared one after another regarding the referendum from the neighbors of the Iraqi Kurds - Turkey and Iran, as well as the Baghdad government. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even held a special press conference on voting day in Iraqi Kurdistan. He announced his intention to close the border in response to the referendum. However, the border continued to function all day as usual.

There is only one border crossing between the autonomy and Turkey - Ibrahim Khalil. It is through it that the main flow of Kurdish oil goes - it is transported by fuel tankers. In turn, dozens of trucks with various Turkish goods cross the border towards autonomy every hour. Closing the transition would threaten the collapse of not only the economy of Iraqi Kurdistan, but also certain areas of production in Turkey, oriented towards the autonomous region.

Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters Election officials at a polling station in Erbil during the referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, September 25, 2017.

Messages that appeared in the first half of the day about the alleged closure land border with Iran, were also subsequently not confirmed. Oil is also transported from the autonomy to Iran by road. And in the opposite direction, a significant amount of Iranian products is imported.

Baghdad has promised to respond with force if the rights of minorities in Kirkuk are violated. However, in the end, no incidents were recorded at all in this disputed city.

Members of election commissions told RIA Novosti that there was no pressure at all from federal Iraqi officials on election day.

And the President of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, himself made a number of statements on the eve of voting day, making it clear that there would be no declaration of independence immediately following the results of the referendum. He, in particular, said that he was ready for long-term negotiations with the federal government of Iraq to implement the results of the plebescite in the autonomy.

“I want to emphasize that this referendum is not being held to draw boundaries. After the vote, we are ready to begin a long process of dialogue with Baghdad, to give it the necessary time - one, two years - to find a formula for good neighborliness,” he explained the plans of the government of Iraqi Kurdistan.

In general, among the people who voted at polling stations in Erbil and those interviewed by a Gazeta.Ru correspondent, the prevailing opinion was that there would be no real separation from Iraq in the near future. “This is just the first step,” said, for example, a native of Erbil, father of 4 children named Mahmoud. - But it's very important step. We deserve independence. We want to live in our own state. Tomorrow, of course, we will not wake up independent. But our referendum will be impossible to ignore, and in the end it will make it possible for the state of Kurdistan to emerge.”

Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters Voting in the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum in Erbil, September 25, 2017

In fact, Masoud Barzani found himself between a rock and a hard place. He was able to mobilize and rally the majority of the residents of the autonomy around himself. They made their choice and voted. Now Barzani must decide what to do with the results of the referendum. To refuse further steps in favor of independence means to betray the interests of one’s own people.

Declare independence - go against neighboring states, perhaps get involved in an armed conflict with Baghdad.

The best thing for him would probably be to retire now. To leave as a national leader, giving the Iraqi Kurds hope that in the near future they will have their own state. Masoud Barzani just announced the possibility of withdrawing from political affairs on the eve of the referendum in an interview with the American television channel Sky News. He said that elections for the autonomy's president would probably be held on November 1. Moreover, he does not intend to stand as a candidate.