The world's population will grow, age, live longer and migrate less. Population Image of a troubled era

In 1950, five years after the founding of the United Nations, the world population was about 2.6 billion. In 1987 it reached 5 billion people, and in 1999 - 6 billion people. As of October 2011, the world population was 7 billion. This milestone in human history was celebrated with the global Seven Billion Actions campaign. The global population is projected to increase by two billion people over the next 30 years, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11 billion by 2100.

This rapid population growth is largely due to an increase in the number of people surviving into reproductive age, as well as factors such as rising fertility rates, increasing urbanization and increased migration. These trends will be critical for future generations.

The most populated countries are China and India

The world population is distributed by region as follows: 61% is in Asia (4.7 billion), 17% in Africa (1.3 billion), 10% in Europe (750 million), 8% in Latin America and the Caribbean ( 650 million), 5% - North America (370 million) and Oceania (43 million).

The countries with the largest populations are China (1.44 billion people) and India (1.39 billion people); their populations account for 19% and 18% of the world population, respectively. ( Source: "World Population 2019" .) By 2027, India is projected to overtake China to become the world's largest population. Between 2019 and 2050, China's population will decline by 31.1 million people, accounting for approximately 2.2% of the country's population.

2100

The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. As with any forecast, possible errors in the calculations should be taken into account. The data presented above is based on an average, suggesting a decline in fertility rates in countries where the large family model is prevalent, and a slight increase in fertility rates in a few countries where the average woman has fewer than two children per woman. Survival opportunities are also projected to improve in all countries.

Africa is the fastest growing continent

Most of the population growth until 2050 is expected to occur in Africa. Africa has the fastest growth rate of any major region. The population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050. The continent's rapid population growth will continue even if fertility rates decline significantly. Despite the uncertainty of future fertility projections in Africa, the large number of young people on the African continent who will soon have children of their own suggests that the continent will shape the size and distribution of the world's population over the next few decades.

Population decline in Europe

The opposite trend is observed in the 55 countries and regions around the world where populations are expected to decline by 2050. In 26 countries, the population will decline by 10%. In a number of countries, including Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine, Croatia and Japan, the population will decline by more than 15% by 2050. Today, the birth rate in all European countries is below the minimum level (2.1 children per woman) necessary to ensure population reproduction in the long term; However, in some countries the birth rate has been below this level for several decades.

Factors influencing population growth

Birth rate

The rate of population growth will be determined mainly by the birth rate. According to the World Population Prospects: Revision 2019, the fertility rate will decrease from 2.5 children per woman in 2019 to 2.4 children in 2050. However, forecasts for countries with high fertility rates are very imprecise. In these countries, every woman has 5 or more children. Of the 21 countries with the highest fertility rates, 19 countries are in Africa, and 2 countries are in Asia. The largest of them are Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda and Afghanistan. Countries with low fertility rates include all European countries, North America, 20 countries in Asia, 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, 3 countries in Oceania and 1 country in Africa.

Increased life expectancy

Overall, significant increases in life expectancy have been achieved in recent years. Average life expectancy at birth will increase from 72.6 years in 2019 to 77.1 years by 2050. The largest increase in this indicator was observed in Africa, where life expectancy increased by 6 years in the 2000s, while during the previous decade it increased by only two years. In 2010–2015, life expectancy in Africa was 60 years, in Asia 72 years, in Latin America and the Caribbean 75 years, in Europe and Oceania 77 years, and in North America 79 years. Despite significant progress in reducing the gap in life expectancy in different countries, the situation remains highly heterogeneous. Thus, in 2019, life expectancy at birth in most developed countries was 7.4 years below the world average. This is mainly due to high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as high levels of violence, conflict situations and the ongoing HIV epidemic in these countries.

International migration

International migration is a less significant factor in population changes than fertility and mortality. However, in some countries and regions, the impact of migration on population size is significant. These include countries of origin or destination of a proportionately large number of economic migrants and countries to which refugee flows flow. During the period 1950–2015, the main recipients of international migrants were most of Europe, North America and Oceania, with countries of origin in Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean; At the same time, the net influx of migration has constantly increased. Between 2010 and 2015, the average annual net inflow of migrants to Europe, North America and Oceania was 2.8 million. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries and regions will receive more than one million migrants per year. At the same time, 10 countries will experience an outflow of migrants.

UN and population issues

UN Population Division

The United Nations system is engaged in addressing complex and interconnected population issues; in particular, this is done by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Population Division.

The UN Population Division collects data on international migration and development, urbanization, world demographic prospects, marriage statistics and fertility. It also provides support to the Commission on Population and Development and promotes the implementation of the Program of Action adopted in 1994 by the International Conference on Population and Development.

The UN Population Division produces population estimates and projections for all countries and regions of the world, assists Member States in developing population policies, and, as a member of the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities, strengthens coordination of related activities within the UN system.

United Nations Population Fund

The UN Population Fund began its activities in 1969; it plays a leadership role within the UN system in proposing population programs that include the right of individuals to freely determine the size of their family. At the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994), UNFPA's mandate was clarified to place greater emphasis on gender and human rights perspectives in addressing population issues, and UNFPA was given a leadership role in helping countries implement Action programs. UNFPA's mandate covers three main areas: reproductive health, gender equality and population and development.

Over the next 30 years, the world population will increase by 2 billion people from today's 7.7 billion people, and by the end of the century there will be about 11 billion people living on the planet. At the same time, the number of Russian residents may decrease from 145 million to 99.7 million people by 2078. These estimates are given in a new paper on population change. The report is posted on website organizations.

According to a more optimistic UN forecast, the population of Russia will increase to 160 million people. The average median value for 2078 is 127.4 million people.

The report also reports that in Russia there are 86.4 men per 100 women. This is one of the lowest rates in the world. Fewer men than women live in Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Hong Kong, and Nepal. According to UN forecasts, the rate will increase, but very slowly: by 2060, there will be 90.2 men per 100 women.

The median age of a Russian resident is 39.6 years. According to the report, the country's population will age and by 2035 the average age of Russians will be 44 years.

At the same time, the birth rate in Russia will decrease: from 9.29 million newborns in 2015-2020 to 7.08 million newborns in 2030-2035.

India is expected to have the highest population growth by 2050, overtaking China in population around 2027. India, along with eight other countries, will account for more than half of the projected population growth between now and 2050.

The largest growth is expected in nine countries: India, Nigeria and Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, the United States of America and Ethiopia. Overall, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to nearly double by 2050.

However, the growth in these countries occurs against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global birth rate. In 1990, the average number of births per woman was 3.2. By 2019, this figure had dropped to 2.5 births per woman, and by 2050, it is projected to decrease to 2.2 births: in order to avoid a decline in the country's population in the long term (in the absence of immigration), it is necessary to ensure a birth rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Populations in an increasing number of countries are declining.

Since 2010, 27 countries and regions have seen declines of at least 1% due to persistently low fertility rates. This trend is expected to spread to 55 countries between now and 2050, with almost half of them seeing population declines of at least 10%.

In some cases, population decline is exacerbated by high rates of emigration. Migration flows have become the main reason for population changes in some regions. Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are experiencing the largest outflows driven by demand for migrant workers, while Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela are the countries with the largest numbers leaving due to violence, armed conflict and insecurity. In countries where populations are declining, immigration is expected to help cope - especially in Belarus, Estonia and Germany.

“Most of the time, rapid population growth occurs in the poorest countries, where it creates additional problems,”

- notes Liu Zhenming, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

Countries must fight poverty and hunger, achieve greater equality, and improve health care and education.

At the same time, growth offers opportunity for many developing countries: recent declines in fertility mean that the working-age population (25 to 64) is growing faster than other age groups, which could improve opportunities for faster economic growth.

According to the report's authors, by 2050, every sixth person on Earth will be over 65 years old (today - every eleventh). In some regions, including North Africa, Asia and Latin America, the proportion of older people is expected to double over the next 30 years.

In Europe and North America, the proportion of people over 65 will reach a quarter by 2050.

The increase in the proportion and number of older people is expected to place increased financial pressure on countries in the coming decades, placing additional costs on public health and social protection systems and affecting pensions.

Although overall life expectancy will increase (from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will remain low. The average life expectancy of a person born in one of the least developed countries today will be about seven years shorter than that of a child born in one of the developed countries. The main reasons are high levels of child and maternal mortality, violence and the spread of HIV.

World Population Dynamics

The rapid beginning of the “demographic explosion” even then caused considerable concern among politicians, scientists, and the public.

Table 4 also presents UN forecasts regarding the world population in 2010 and 2020. They amount to 7.2 and 8 billion people, respectively. The second of these "benchmarks" appeared at the 1992 conference in Rio de Janeiro. For 2025, the level of 8.5 billion people was also determined there. And at the end of 1994, the UN released its longer-term forecast, according to which by 2050 the world's population should reach 9.8 billion people. (At the same time, the lowest level is determined at 7.9 billion people, and the highest at 11.9 billion.) Despite the prospects for such growth in the world's population, the data in Table 4 indicate that the gradual attenuation of the “demographic explosion” appears to be will affect not only relative, but also absolute indicators of population reproduction. It should also be taken into account that in 1994, the UN Population Fund developed a twenty-year plan for the demographic development of the planet, which envisages expanding programs to limit population growth almost throughout the world by 2015.

It would be wrong to consider the phenomenon of a “population explosion” only in a planetary aspect, since it also has a pronounced regional aspect.

Table 5

Population growth rates by region of the world (%)

Table 6

It follows from Table 6 that in the second half of the 20th century, in all major regions of the world, there was a decrease in the average annual population growth rate, especially noticeable in foreign Europe. The only exception is Africa, where, apparently, the peak of the population explosion is still ongoing. In 2000 - 2025, this trend will generally continue, and will also spread to Africa. Such a decrease in relative indicators will also affect the absolute indicators of the population of large regions.

Analyzing the data in Table 6, it should be noted that the most populated part of the world is foreign Asia, which accounts for 58% of the world's population.

And, nevertheless, the share of foreign Asia in the world population by 2025 will decrease slightly. This is explained, first of all, by the rapid “advance” of Africa, where, despite a slight decrease in average annual growth rates, they will remain the highest in the first quarter of the 21st century. In terms of its share of the world population, Africa overtook foreign Europe in the early 1980s, and in the future this position will be further strengthened. Third place, both in terms of population and share in the world population, will remain in Latin America. And the greatest reduction in this share will occur in foreign Europe and North America - regions with the lowest average annual growth. The share of CIS countries will also decrease noticeably.

Apparently, this trend will continue in the period from 2025 to 2050. According to the UN forecast, in 2050 the population of Asia will be 5741 million people (58.4% of the global total), the population of Africa will be 2141 million (21.8%), the population of Latin America will be 839 million (8.5%), the population of foreign countries will be Europe - 548 million (5.6%), the population of North America - 389 million (4%), and the population of Russia - 130 million (1.3%).

If we look at the population explosion phenomenon at the subregional level, we can see significant differences, especially within Asia and Africa. Thus, in the early 90s, the population of East Asia grew by 1.3% per year, the population of Southeast Asia - by 1.9%, South Asia - by 2.3%, and Southwest Asia - by 2.7 %, and Africa - by 3% per year. This order of subregions will apparently continue in the future. It determines the forecast for population growth at this level.

From all that has been said, it follows that the “demographic explosion” in the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, which took several decades, will noticeably decline in the 21st century. This is a natural course of events, indicating that in these regions such “braking engines” as growth in urbanization, changes in the age structure of the population, an increase in average life expectancy, the involvement of women in the production process, progress in education and healthcare are gradually turning on. A general increase in the social and cultural level of development of these countries should also lead to an expansion of the arsenal of means and methods of birth control.

And, nevertheless, one cannot help but see that the rapid growth of the world population has already created and continues to create a kind of demographic background for all other global problems of mankind. This is quite understandable: after all, the more people there are, the greater the load on the territory, the more food and natural resources are required. Many researchers of this problem do not see any other alternative: either humanity will find the strength to solve it, or nature, which is being destroyed by human efforts, will get rid of the species Homo sapiens, which has introduced such a disturbance into the biosphere that no other existing species has introduced in the entire history of life on the planet . In this interpretation, the demographic problem today becomes perhaps the most important problem for the survival of mankind.

To explain the processes of world population growth, the concept of demographic transition was developed. According to this concept, in a traditional society, the birth and death rates are high and the population grows very slowly. The demographic transition begins almost simultaneously with the formation of industrial society. The transition from the traditional to the modern type of reproduction (low birth rate - low mortality - low natural increase) was completed in the industrial countries of Western Europe and North America in the 50s. twentieth century, and in the last quarter of the century it began in a number of developing countries and regions (China, Southeast Asia, Latin America).

In the first phase, the decline in mortality (due to improved nutrition and health care) occurs faster than the decline in fertility, resulting in a sharp increase in natural population growth. In this phase there is a “demographic explosion”. In the second phase, mortality continues to decline, but the birth rate falls even faster, as a result of which population growth gradually slows down. The third phase is characterized by a slowdown in the decline in the birth rate with a slight increase in mortality, so that the natural increase remains at a low level. Industrialized countries are now close to completing this phase. In the fourth phase, mortality and birth rates become almost identical, and the process of demographic stabilization ends.

The demographic transition process is expected to last until approximately 2100, when the population will stabilize at 10.5 billion people.

Level of urbanization of the population. At the end of the twentieth century. Almost half of the world's inhabitants live in cities, and in industrialized countries about 75% of people live in cities. The higher the level of economic development, the more the urban lifestyle spreads into the countryside. Therefore, for rich countries with well-developed transport, energy and information infrastructure, differences between cities and rural areas no longer have much socio-economic significance. In developing countries, on the contrary, the growth of cities and the spread of an urban lifestyle have a strong impact on the type of population reproduction, migration activity, consumption structure and the propensity to save. Cities have lower birth rates, stronger social dynamics, and sharper social contrasts. Urbanization promotes the growth of entrepreneurial activity, but it also requires the expansion of government social programs. Agrarian overpopulation and migration of rural residents to cities are causing the formation of vast slum areas inhabited by representatives of marginalized strata. It is expected that in 2025, 55% of residents of developing countries will live in cities. Already, this part of the world is home to the largest and fastest growing megacities: Mexico City, Cairo, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Bombay, Shanghai, etc.

Let's look at the population forecast for the main regions of the world. Since the authors adhere to the position that a multiple increase in the Earth’s population is not expected, they used UNFPA (UN) data from the available main quantitative forecasts (, ISA and World Bank).

Particularly interesting is the UNFPA report “World Population, 1990”, which contains the main reporting indicators of social development for countries of the world in the mid or late 80s. and a number of demographic indicators, calculated mainly for 1990. Let us recall its main provisions.

The main thing is the simultaneous comparability of data for different countries, which, according to the official statistics of these countries, would not be easy to achieve, or rather, even impossible. It also uses the responses of the governments of states and territories to questions posed to them in advance, plus calculations by UNFPA specialists on the world, its regions and countries. In this regard, the material is unique in accuracy (although it will always remain approximate due to the dissimilarity of statistical approaches, the state of accounting and other factors characterizing different countries), moreover, it is quite “fresh” in time. Moreover, it provides a picture of the coming changes in the economy and population of the world and its main regions up to 2025. The analysis of previous years covers mainly a 20-year period, sometimes “going down” to 1950. Thus, it is a broad retrospective .

Forecast for 2025 - 8 billion 467 million people.

If we take this forecast period, then only 147 million people - less than 5% of the world population growth - will be in the economic region, most of which are in the north. This will happen not due to an increase in the birth rate, but due to a decrease in mortality and growth (from 73 to 79 years). As for the birth rate, each woman in economically developed countries now has 1.9 children over the entire reproductive period, and in Western Europe - 1.58. Only immigration protects countries like Russia from depopulation. In Eastern countries it reached its lowest level in history.

If in 1950 economically developed countries accounted for 32.7% of population growth, then in 2025 it will account for only 15.8%. The first place will continue to be (1950 - 52.9; 2025 - 57%), the second is Africa, whose share increases from 8.6 to 18.4%, the third is Latin America and ( 6.4 and 8.8%).

At least 95% of the world population growth in 1990-2025 will occur in Asia, Africa and. This is more than thirty years ago, when in 1965-1970. Natural population growth in developing countries has reached its peak.

Regional differentiation in population growth is increasingly intensifying. If the average annual increase is 2.1%, then the population is growing by less than 1%, the Caribbean by 1.45%, Central America by 2.3%, and by 3% or more. It can be assumed that the total population of these countries will increase from 448 million people in 1990 to 760 million people in 2025.

A similar picture can be observed in Asia. If the annual rate is less than 1.3%, then in Southeast Asia it is 1.9%, and in South Asia it is 2.3% and continues to grow. The population today is approximately equal to the population of East Asia and slightly exceeds 1200 million people. The population, growing at 2.7% annually, has the highest growth rate after Africa.
Expects truly rapid population growth. It was in the 90s. The continent achieved record population growth of 3% per year, the highest in the entire history of the region. Every year the population of Africa increases by 10 million people, which already gives rise to many problems today. The situation will become even more difficult in 10 years, when annual growth jumps to 15 million people and the region's population is projected to increase from 648 million in 1990 to 1,581 million in 2025.

In 1950, Europe's population accounted for 32.1% of the world's population. In 2025, their share will drop to 15.8%. On the contrary, it will be almost 20% in 2025.

It will approach the population size of Russia, which pursues a harsh policy of “one family, one child,” and by 2050, according to the results of the latest censuses and sociological research, it will become the most densely populated country. If by that time there will be an average of three children per Indian family, as now, the country's population will be 2.16 billion people. This is fraught not only with serious social problems, but can also cause irreparable damage to the natural environment.

Meanwhile, the experience of China shows that it is possible to control the processes of population growth. In recent years, the Chinese government, through tough measures, has managed to limit the increase in the number of residents, and, according to experts, 1.4 billion people will live there in the middle of the next century. India may have the same figure if its authorities manage to implement the principle: “one family, two children.”

Looking even further into the future - the end of the 21st century - we can see that many countries will face very serious difficulties if the projected population growth rates continue. For example, the population could reach 500 million people—the same number living in all of Africa in 1982.