The Kurds have started a referendum, Türkiye and Iraq are preparing military action. Independence referendum: Iraqi Kurdistan and plans for the future

A referendum on independence is being held in Iraqi Kurdistan. Despite the request to postpone the plebiscite made by the main ally of the Iraqi Kurds, the United States, and severe pressure from Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara, Erbil did not cancel or postpone the voting date. It began, as planned, on September 25 at 7:00 Moscow time.

• Kurds supporting the Kurdistan independence referendum in Erbil, Iraq
• Reuters
• Azad Lashkari

The current Iraqi Kurdistan is an autonomous state entity within Iraq. In 1990, it gained de facto independence from Baghdad after American-allied local Kurdish forces drove Saddam Hussein's forces out of the region during Operation Desert Storm. In 2006, the region inhabited by Kurds received the status of broad autonomy under the Iraqi constitution. Own president, parliament, laws, even your own armed forces— Kurdistan already has all this. Now we are talking about bringing the process of state building to its logical conclusion - about recognizing independence. This desire is reinforced by constant friction with official Baghdad.

In 2014, after another conflict, the Iraqi government stopped subsidizing the autonomy's budget. As a result government agencies The Kurds were faced with the problem of underfunding, which was solved by putting all oil exports from the region under their control. This is how Iraqi Kurdistan gained financial independence.

However, the problem with the current referendum is not that any region of Iraq is seeking secession. The Kurds also conduct voting in areas that are not formally within the boundaries of the autonomy. First of all, this is Kirkuk - the oil capital of northern Iraq, where both Arabs (Sunnis and Shiites) and Kurds, Assyrians, Yezidis, and Turkomans live. Kurdish Peshmerga forces de facto control this city - it was they who liberated it from IS* in 2014. The question put to the referendum is formulated in such a way that it concerns autonomy and other regions of Iraq.

“Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdish territories beyond it to become an independent state?” - written on the ballot paper.

Against all

Not a single state in the world, with the exception of Israel, supported holding a referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan. The United States, together with the EU and the UN, offered the Kurds an alternative - to postpone the referendum for two years. In return, the United States pledged to provide support for the new plebiscite at the UN level. The Americans motivated their position by the fact that the question Kurdish referendum could antagonize the main forces fighting IS*: the Kurds, the USA, Turkey, Iraq. But Erbil refused to make concessions.

The referendum is a challenge for all neighbors of Iraqi Kurdistan: after all, the Kurdish population lives in the border areas of Iran, Syria, and Turkey. Iran and Turkey are afraid that a referendum in Iraq will give impetus to separatists within these countries, and are trying to put pressure on the Iraqi Kurds.

On September 18, 2017, the Turkish military began exercises on the borders with Iraqi Kurdistan. Six days later, the Iranians initiated their maneuvers. The heads of the general staffs of both countries agreed to coordinate actions on the Kurdish issue. In addition to military deterrence, measures of economic influence are also being developed. Iran has already closed its borders with Syrian Kurdistan.

Both countries have repeatedly stated that they will resort to all possible ways pressure on Erbil in the event of a referendum.

• Turkish military on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan
• Reuters
• Thayer Al-Sudani

“We demand a complete cancellation (of the referendum. - RT) so that we don’t have to impose sanctions,” Turkish government spokesman Bekir Bozdag said two days before the vote.

Earlier, Turkish President Recep Erdogan spoke about the possibility of introducing restrictive measures against Erbil. Now he has threatened to close the border with the autonomous entity from Turkey and hinted that he might suspend the import of Kurdish oil.

Ankara has the most serious leverage over the autonomous region: all oil from Iraqi Kurdistan goes there. However, sanctions are a double-edged sword: the economy and well-being of residents of Turkey’s poor southeast largely depend on cooperation with the region.

“The capabilities of the federal authorities of Iraq are not sufficient to solve the problem by force,” a senior commented in a conversation with RT on the likelihood of the Iraqi army invading the Kurdish autonomy Researcher Center for Arabic and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Truevtsev.

According to him, the possibility of an invasion of Kurdistan by Turkey and Iran should be excluded. Ankara is planning an operation in Syria and is fighting the Kurdish underground on its territory, and therefore does not seek to start a war in another direction. An Iranian intervention “is fraught for Tehran itself, since it will be the very pretext that the Americans were looking for to strike Iran.”

Other Kurds

Against the background of the referendum in Iraq, another vote, held in regions populated by Kurds, went almost unnoticed. On September 22, elections for representatives of local administrations were held in Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria (this region is known as Rojava). In November, local council elections are due to take place, and in January 2018, elections to the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria (this is the name of the de facto autonomous formation of Syrian Kurds proclaimed in March 2016). Then the creation of this federation was not supported either in Damascus, or in Moscow, or in Washington. Now officials from Damascus and Washington have opposed the elections, although the latter is cooperating with the Syrian Kurds within the framework of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

The Kurdish National Council, aligned with the government of Iraqi Kurdistan, called on its supporters in Syria to boycott the elections in Rojava. The reason is ideological differences and the struggle for influence between the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which controls the Kurdish regions of Syria, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which holds power in the autonomous region of Iraq. At the same time, the Syrian Kurds themselves and the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party previously stated that they would respect the results of the referendum of their Iraqi brethren.

The PYD is a left-wing political force that is part of the Kurdistan Communities Union, an umbrella group of Kurdish parties led by Kurdistan Workers' Party leader Abdullah Ocalan.

• The funeral of YPG fighters, on the flags is a portrait of the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party Abdullah Ocalan, near the Syrian city of Derik, 2013.
• FABIO BUCCIARELLI

Ocalan, after he found himself in a Turkish prison in 1999, where he is serving a life sentence, carried out a total reassessment of his previous position on the Kurdish issue. What is fundamentally important is that he abandoned the struggle for the creation of a Kurdish national state and put forward the idea of ​​​​building a new structure based on “democratic confederalism.”

“Democratic confederalism in Kurdistan is an anti-nationalist movement. It aims to realize the rights and self-defense of peoples in promoting democracy in all parts of Kurdistan, without challenging existing political boundaries. Its goal is not to create a Kurdish nation-state,” Ocalan argues in his work “Democratic Confederalism.”

“The Syrian Kurds do not seek independence for the region. Rather, they want Syria to become a democratic state where all citizens have the same rights,” PYD leader Saleh Muslim explained his goals in an interview with the German news agency DPA.

Two projects for Kurdistan

Both the Kurdistan Workers' Party and the PYD consider the nation state to be a bourgeois entity that oppresses the free individual. Instead of creating a separate state for the Kurds, they advocate the formation of fundamentally new political structures based on the voluntary unification of communities, universal arming of the people, maximum emancipation of women, secularization, the spread of a cooperative form of management in the economy and the transfer of the maximum possible powers to local authorities. This “anarchist” project, however, does not strictly oppose existing nation-states, but proposes to solve national problem by creating federations of Kurdish communities.

“Our movement seeks to create federal structures in Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq, open to all Kurds, which will create a confederal umbrella for all four parts of Kurdistan,” Ocalan emphasizes.

However, as observers note, when implemented, the stated ideas run into Kurdish nationalism, which dominates the consciousness of Kurdish militias.

“In general, this is a movement of Kurdish nationalists who seek to create a unified Kurdish state,” Vyacheslav Matuzov, president of the Society for Friendship and Business Cooperation with Arab Countries, commented on the situation in a conversation with RT.

The opponent of the project of Ocalan and other leftist Kurdish forces is the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party of Masoud Barzani in Iraqi Kurdistan. KDP is a conservative nationalist party that does not hide its desire for Kurdish national state. It was with her support that the Turks previously attacked PKK positions in the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan.

• Masoud Barzani during the Kurdistan independence referendum
• Reuters
• Azad Lashkari

Ideological differences between the two main Kurdish political projects are not the only thing dividing this people, who speak at least two Kurdish languages ​​- Kurmanji and Sorani. There are other political groups and clans within Iraqi Kurdistan that challenge the power of the Barzani clan. These are Gorran, the Kurdistan Islamic Group and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (the latter has its own armed forces and governs the east of the region). They are in favor of a referendum, but are preparing to fight Barzani after the plebiscite.

Landscape after the battle

An expert at the Middle East Institute, Sergei Balmasov, noted in a conversation with RT that Russia should pay close attention to the presidential and parliamentary elections in Iraqi Kurdistan, which are scheduled for November 1.

“The most serious problem for Barzani is the pro-European groups and the Gorran faction,” the expert says. — They accuse Barzani of corruption and agreements with Russia (with the Rosneft company. — RT), calling them opaque and going against the people."

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds himself, according to Balmasov, is using the referendum on independence to strengthen his position before the elections and to gain a bargaining chip in negotiations with Baghdad.

According to experts, if the federal government of Iraq shows restraint, then conflict can be avoided. Also, no one believes in a tough confrontation between Ankara and Erbil.

“Verbal rhetoric is one thing, but economics is another,” says Balmasov, referring to economic ties between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

As for the impact on political processes outside of Iraq, the left-wing Kurds competing with Barzani, under pressure from the bulk of the Kurdish population, inspired by the Iraqi referendum, will take a more nationalist position.

“This will encourage Kurds in other countries, including Syria, to more clearly express their position,” the expert is convinced.

* « Islamic State"(IS, ISIS) is a terrorist group banned on the territory of Russia.

A referendum on independence from Baghdad was held in Iraqi Kurdistan. According to preliminary data, more than 93% of plebiscite participants supported the idea of ​​declaring sovereignty. This is evidenced by data after processing about 9% of the ballots, RIA Novosti reports with reference to the Higher Independent Commission for Referendum and Elections in Kurdistan.

According to the same data, 6.71% of voters opposed secession from Iraq. In total, about 3.3 million people took part in the referendum, the turnout was 72.16%.

On the eve of the vote on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, UN mission personnel stationed in the autonomous region received a security briefing. The authorities recommended their employees not to leave their apartments and camps unless absolutely necessary. And if you go out, do so accompanied by other employees.

“The Arabs, Daesh (the Arabic abbreviation of the Islamic State banned in Russia), maybe the Iranians, anyone can blow up something,” one of the residents of the Dohuk province named Shamal told a Gazeta.Ru correspondent on the eve of the vote. “Those who are afraid of a strong and independent Kurdish state can ruin our holiday.” The referendum is a real holiday for us.”

Calm and quiet

The night before the referendum turned out to be unusually quiet in the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, Erbil. Usually, on the city's ring highway, expensive cars rush past each other until the early morning. It is along the ring road that many fashionable establishments are located, which are visited by wealthy residents of the capital and young people. But on the night before the vote, the highway was almost empty, and establishments closed earlier than usual due to a lack of customers.

Alaa Al-Marjani/Reuters A poster in support of a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan on the street of Erbil, September 24, 2017

The voting day itself also turned out to be surprisingly quiet and calm. In the autonomy it was declared a holiday. The streets, even in the very center of the city, around the ancient fortress on the hill, where thousands of citizens and guests usually walk, were surprisingly deserted. The atmosphere was nothing like the excitement that preceded voting day.

Polling stations were set up in schools, local government buildings and Erbil's central stadium.

Each precinct was guarded by a significant number of armed police, Peshmarga fighters and Asayish intelligence agencies. There were no armed patrols or special equipment directly on the streets.

Visitors were carefully searched several times before being allowed inside. Many who wanted to vote came in national Kurdish costumes, with autonomy flags or scarves in the national colors - red, white and green. Among the participants there were noticeably more young people than middle-aged or elderly people.

There were no incidents in Kirkuk, the most disputed city in Iraqi Kurdistan. In addition to Kurds, it is inhabited by large communities of Turkmen and Arabs. In the surrounding area there are rich oil deposits, which are one of the key factors tensions between Erbil and Baghdad. Polling stations were organized, according to the Independent High Commission for Elections, exclusively in areas inhabited by Kurds.

By lunchtime, the number of people wishing to vote at polling stations throughout the autonomy had increased noticeably. And by evening there were even queues in some places. Therefore, the polling stations closed not at 18:00, as originally planned, but at 19:00 local time.

Somewhere later, if there were still those willing to take part in the plebiscite.

Lots of statements without action

Throughout the day, loud statements appeared one after another regarding the referendum from the neighbors of the Iraqi Kurds - Turkey and Iran, as well as the Baghdad government. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even held a special press conference on voting day in Iraqi Kurdistan. He announced his intention to close the border in response to the referendum. However, the border continued to function all day as usual.

There is only one border crossing between the autonomy and Turkey - Ibrahim Khalil. It is through it that the main flow of Kurdish oil goes - it is transported by fuel tankers. In turn, dozens of trucks with various Turkish goods cross the border towards autonomy every hour. Closing the transition would threaten the collapse of not only the economy of Iraqi Kurdistan, but also certain areas of production in Turkey, oriented towards the autonomous region.

Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters Election officials at a polling station in Erbil during the referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, September 25, 2017.

Messages that appeared in the first half of the day about the alleged closure land border with Iran, were also subsequently not confirmed. Oil is also transported from the autonomy to Iran by road. And in the opposite direction, a significant amount of Iranian products is imported.

Baghdad has promised to respond with force if the rights of minorities in Kirkuk are violated. However, in the end, no incidents were recorded at all in this disputed city.

Members of election commissions told RIA Novosti that there was no pressure at all from federal Iraqi officials on election day.

And the President of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, himself made a number of statements on the eve of voting day, making it clear that there would be no declaration of independence immediately following the results of the referendum. He, in particular, said that he was ready for long-term negotiations with the federal government of Iraq to implement the results of the plebescite in the autonomy.

“I want to emphasize that this referendum is not being held to draw boundaries. After the vote, we are ready to begin a long process of dialogue with Baghdad, to give it the necessary time - one, two years - to find a formula for good neighborliness,” he explained the plans of the government of Iraqi Kurdistan.

In general, among the people who voted at polling stations in Erbil and those interviewed by a Gazeta.Ru correspondent, the prevailing opinion was that there would be no real separation from Iraq in the near future. “This is just the first step,” said, for example, a native of Erbil, father of 4 children named Mahmoud. - But it's very important step. We deserve independence. We want to live in our own state. Tomorrow, of course, we will not wake up independent. But our referendum will be impossible to ignore, and in the end it will make it possible for the state of Kurdistan to emerge.”

Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters Voting in the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum in Erbil, September 25, 2017

In fact, Masoud Barzani found himself between a rock and a hard place. He was able to mobilize and rally the majority of the residents of the autonomy around himself. They made their choice and voted. Now Barzani must decide what to do with the results of the referendum. To refuse further steps in favor of independence means to betray the interests of one’s own people.

Declare independence - go against neighboring states, perhaps get involved in an armed conflict with Baghdad.

The best thing for him would probably be to retire now. To leave as a national leader, giving the Iraqi Kurds hope that in the near future they will have their own state. Masoud Barzani just announced the possibility of withdrawing from political affairs on the eve of the referendum in an interview with the American television channel Sky News. He said that elections for the autonomy's president would probably be held on November 1. Moreover, he does not intend to stand as a candidate.

On September 25, a referendum on independence was held in Iraqi Kurdistan, which was condemned by the governments of Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria. According to the Iraqi Kurdistan Election Commission, more than 90% (2.86 million out of 3.31 million) of the referendum participants voted for independence.

The referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan demonstrated the unity and cohesion of the population northern regions Iraq in the face of a common enemy in the person of the puppet pro-Iranian regime in Baghdad, believes the leading researcher at the Center international security IMEMO RAS.

“93% of the residents of Iraqi Kurdistan and adjacent areas: Kurds, Arabs, Turkomans, Assyrians, Armenians voted for the independence of the region with a fairly high turnout of 78%. They were forced to do this by the betrayal of the central authorities in the summer of 2014, when the 200,000-strong Iraqi army shamefully fled from 7-8 thousand Daesh militants*, abandoning arsenals of heavy weapons and surrendering over a third of the country’s territory without a fight,” the expert emphasized in an interview. As a result, thousands of Kurds and Yezidi Kurds and other residents of the region were killed, taken into slavery, and cities were plundered. According to Ivanov, the subsequent actions of the Iraqi authorities also did not lead to the normalization of relations with the Sunni Arabs and Kurds.

Baghdad threatens to use force against the Kurds who have declared themselves independent, however, according to Ivanov, “no special actions The Iraqi government is incapable due to its military and political impotence, fear of new uprisings by Sunni Arabs and patriotic Shiite Arabs.” “The spiritual leader of the Shiites, Muqtada al-Sadr, and his supporters have more than once stormed the parliament and government buildings and demanded their dissolution,” the expert said.

As for the reaction of the main international players, in particular Turkey and Iran, it is quite predictable. “At first they are on the verge of hysteria, then they will calm down and everything will be as before. No one will fight with Iraqi Kurdistan, and blocking the borders too - this is tantamount to war, and according to international law, such a blockade means a declaration of war. Turkey and Iran need to focus their efforts on their domestic political problems,” the expert emphasized.

According to Ivanov, the term “autonomy” is not applicable to Iraqi Kurdistan, since it has long gone beyond the scope of autonomy. Now it is a federal subject in the Republic of Iraq with the broadest rights and powers. In all official documents it is referred to as the Kurdish region of Iraq (accordingly, the Kurdistan Regional Government was formed), or simply Iraqi Kurdistan.

And although the Iraqi Cabinet of Ministers has long demanded that the authorities of the Kurdish region of Iraq transfer all border points of the region to the control of Baghdad, and that foreign countries stop cooperating with it in the oil sector, this is no longer practically feasible. “A cabinet of ministers without Sunni Arabs and Kurds is illegitimate, and making such decisions by a narrow group of people is another shock,” says Ivanov. In addition, the ongoing large-scale military exercises of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are unlikely to lead to real hostilities. “Everything will be quiet and calm, the hysteria will soon fade away,” the expert noted.

As for the possible “domino effect” in the struggle of Kurdish minorities for independence, then, according to Stanislav Ivanov, this will not happen. “All Kurdish minorities are at different stages of struggle for their rights and freedoms. No one will touch the Kurds of Iraq, and everyone will cooperate with them. Israel may even officially recognize the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan if it is declared,” the expert concluded.

*Banned in the Russian Federation

On the issue of independence. About four million Iraqi passport holders have expressed their views on whether they should remain part of Iraq or create their own state.

The formulation of the question itself is ambiguous. In fact, the Kurds - the largest people in the world without their own statehood - for the first time in a hundred years were able to officially and legally speak out on a pressing issue, because after the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916, the Kurds were divided between Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, and earlier Attempts to gain independence were harshly suppressed.

Although the UN Charter speaks of the right of peoples to self-determination, the organization’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was skeptical about this referendum and asked to postpone its holding. Similar requests came from the US administration and the governments of several European countries. Although Washington has actively supported the Kurds in Iraq for thirty years, including with arms supplies, this issue The White house ended up on the side of Baghdad. Behind this decision one can see not so much a desire to control all of Iraq, which the United States is unable to do, but rather a lack of strategic vision and acceptable political methods.

Despite protests from Baghdad, as well as neighboring Turkey and Iran, the referendum took place. According to the Kurdistan Election Commission, 72.16% of the population took part, of which 92.7% said “yes”. For Turkey and Iran, the referendum results are a cause for concern for their Kurdish-inhabited territories, but the two countries have different approaches.

Close ties between the Kurds and Iran were established under the Shah, before the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Later, Iran supported the Kurds during the ten-year Iraqi-Iranian war, contacts intensified, and more recently, in 2014, in connection with the advancement of the Islamic State (an organization banned in Russia), Tehran began to interact more with the Iraqi Kurds on the security front. On this moment The Iranian-Iraqi border in the Kurdistan region is open, and oil caravans continue to pass through it.

Türkiye has more reasons to worry about the actions of the Kurdistan Workers' Party on its territory. Certainly, ideal project independent Kurdistan implies the unification of all four zones - Bakur, Mashud, Rojava and Rojilat (literally: North, South, West, East), i.e. Turkish, Iraqi, Syrian and Iranian territories inhabited by Kurds. However, today such imaginary projects are usually far from practical implementation.

As for Baghdad, it is concerned not only about the possibility of the final secession of Kurdistan, but also about the loss of other lands that are not officially the responsibility of the Kurdish Regional Government. The formulation of the question in the referendum was such that it mentioned not only the official Kurdish autonomy within Iraq, but also the Kurdish territories outside this zone.

The difficulty is that the boundaries of some territories have not yet been defined and are controversial. The Kurdish side claims that under Saddam Hussein a large number of Kurds were evicted from their places of historical residence. This was especially true in the oil-bearing areas in the vicinity of Kirkuk. Arabs loyal to the regime were resettled in their place. Baghdad responded with a parliamentary resolution to send military forces to these areas where Peshmerga units are located. In addition, Baghdad gave three days for the Kurds to transfer full control of the border and airports in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah.

True, the introduction of troops into the disputed territories violates Article 9 of the Iraqi Constitution, which states that “The Iraqi Armed Forces and security forces cannot be used against any part of Iraq.” Therefore, the Kurds do not recognize the resolution of the Iraqi parliament. About 80 thousand Peshmerga fighters are concentrated in the Kirkuk zone, ready to confront Baghdad. Apparently, however, no real action will be taken against the Kurds. It is significant that, despite serious rhetorical threats from Turkey, flights to Kurdistan from this country have not been cancelled. Planes continue to fly from a number of European countries.

By the way, in Kurdistan itself they believe that the key player who can put an end to the issue of Kurdish independence is not the United States, but Iran. At least that's what insider sources from Erbil say.

However, in what is happening one can discern not only a tendency towards the disintegration of Iraq, but also the possibility of creating a political entity of a different type, namely a confederation. After the dismantling of secular statehood, the country was torn apart by religious contradictions. While the Kurds were able to stand out and unite on the basis of their ethnic identity, the Arab population was plunged into war by religious grounds. Since the United States, after the occupation, relied on the Shiites when creating a new government, this led to an imbalance and radicalization of the Sunnis, including Al-Qaeda. To some extent, this also contributed to the creation of the Islamic State, the backbone of which was Saddam Hussein’s Baathist officers. Christian Arabs suffered the most in this massacre, and during the expansion of IS and Yazidis, representatives of an ancient religion close to Zoroastrianism.

When creating a confederation, it is possible to separate Sunni and Shiite regions. Nowadays, the Kurds’ claims relate not only to constant delays in payments for sold oil, but also to banal bureaucratic delays, corruption, and security issues. The confederation model could be a solution not only for Iraq, but also serve as an example for other states in the region, which has inherent high levels ethno-religious tension.

Even before the referendum, the intelligence and analytical company Stratfor noted Russia's role in redrawing the energy map of the Middle East. For example, the Rosneft project in Iraqi Kurdistan provides for annual production of 30 billion cubic meters gas, creation of new infrastructure and its integration into existing pipelines. In this case, part of the fuel will be supplied to local factories and distribution areas, and the other is transported towards Turkey and further to Europe. Accordingly, Ankara, which is experiencing an energy hunger and has long been consuming the oil resources of Kurdistan (the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline with the Tak Tak-Khurmala section commissioned in 2013), will become more loyal to Erbil.

Another company that previously operated in Kurdistan is Pearl Petroleum Co. from the UAE. There is an agreement that part of the assets of this company will be used for the project that Rosneft is working on. Such a connection could become an additional guarantee of stability in the region.

There is a new troublemaker in the Middle East. The Kurds, who made a significant contribution to the destruction of ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq, are becoming the driving force behind the new international conflict. Bye fighting unfold exclusively on the verbal front, but the statements sound menacing.

This is all because of the referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region within Iraq, which the regional authorities scheduled for September 25, 2017. The initiative received the support of most major political forces in the region. This confirms that the referendum will take place not only in areas controlled by the regime of Masoud Barzani, but also in areas occupied by the opposition, centered on Sulaymaniyah, and in Kurdish-occupied areas outside the borders of their autonomy, for example in the oil and gas industry center of Northern Iraq - Kirkuk.

In turn, official Baghdad considers the upcoming plebiscite an attack on the territorial integrity of the country and refuses to recognize its results. The Iraqi leadership has repeatedly spoken about its illegality, the country's parliament voted to abolish it, and on September 18, 2017, the Iraqi federal court banned the referendum. However, so far not a single decision or statement emanating from Baghdad has forced Erbil to deviate from its stated course.

The fact is that since 1991, when the United States supported Kurdish armed forces during Operation Desert Storm, Iraqi Kurdistan has been de facto independent public education. He has his own authorities, he has an army - the Peshmerga, which has proven its effectiveness in battles with IS*.

• Kurdish Peshmerga fighters march during training
• Reuters
• Ahmed Jadallah

Companies operating in Kurdistan (and since there is oil, many want to work there) primarily seek the favor of the local government, and not the leadership of Iraq. Finally, in Erbil there are representative offices of the leading powers of the region, including Russia, the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia. Formally, these are consular services, but de facto they perform the role of full-fledged diplomatic institutions. The Kurds are connected with Iraq only by a common currency - the dinar, Kurdish deputies in the country's parliament and a common enemy - the Islamic State.

“The referendum, of course, will take place, because this is the line towards which the Kurds have been moving for many decades,” the head of the Institute’s Center for Islamic Studies told RT innovative development Kirill Semenov.

According to the expert, the Kurds are striving to logically complete the process of creating their own state, the main institutions of which have already been built. Another factor that makes holding a plebiscite inevitable is the personal ambitions of the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan. “Barzani made a big bet on this; if he refuses the referendum, it will be a significant drop in the image of the Kurds,” the political scientist claims.

Finally, there is also historical expediency. Now, when in the eyes of the world community the Kurds are perceived primarily as main strength In the fight against ISIS, and the central government in Iraq is still weak, the most favorable time is to declare independence.

“They understand that they will not have another such opportunity, another such chance at another time,” notes Kirill Semyonov.

Everyone is against

But it was precisely the need to fight IS that he justified his call to the Kurds to postpone the referendum. general secretary UN Antonio Guterres. As his official representative Stephane Dujarric noted, “the Secretary General respects the sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of Iraq.” In his opinion, all problems between Erbil and Baghdad can be resolved “through structured dialogue and constructive compromise.”

• Antonio Guterres
• globallookpress.com
• Li Muzi/Xinhua

“Any unilateral decision to hold a referendum at this time will distract from the need to defeat ISIS,” Guterres said.

A similar position is shared by the United States, which does not deny the Kurds’ right to self-determination, but believes that the current initiative is untimely.

“The United States has consistently advised leaders of the Kurdish Regional Government that the referendum is a distraction from efforts to defeat ISIS and stabilize liberated areas,” the White House said in a September 16, 2017 statement. Washington is particularly concerned about the Kurds’ plans to hold this referendum in areas they captured from IS, which, however, are outside the constitutionally defined boundaries of Kurdish autonomy.

“Holding a referendum in disputed areas, in particular, is provocative and destabilizing,” the Trump administration said in a statement.

Russian representatives have repeatedly stated the need to respect the territorial integrity of Iraq, emphasizing that the results of the referendum could affect the entire region. “We expect that when making final decisions, everything related to the political, geopolitical, demographic and economic consequences of this step will be taken into account, including taking into account the fact that the Kurdish issue is wider than the borders of modern Iraq and affects the situation in a number of neighboring states,” - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in June 2017 in an interview with the Kurdish TV channel Rudaw.

Iraq's neighbors - Türkiye and Iran - are clearly not happy and, simultaneously with calls not to hold a referendum, are planning forceful actions in case of destabilization of the situation in the region. The only country that formally supported the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan was Israel, a long-time partner of the Kurds, interested in weakening its Arab neighbors and Iran.

Saber Dance

The fact is that the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan is regarded as a threat to its internal security not only by Iraq, but also by Syria, Iran and Turkey, because Kurds also live in the border regions of all these countries. Moreover, there are separatist movements advocating independence there.

It is not surprising that this problem is discussed not only by politicians, but also by the military. Thus, a referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan was put on the agenda during a recent meeting between the chiefs of staff of the armed forces of Turkey and Iran, Hulusi Akar and Mohammad Hossein Bagheri.

• Mohammad Hossein Bagheri greets Hulusi Akar during his official visit to Ankara on August 15, 2017

September 17, Secretary of the Iranian Supreme Council national security(WSNB) Ali Shamkhani said that the secession of Iraqi Kurdistan will lead to closure state border with the breakaway region of Iraq. Shamkhani also hinted at the possibility of conducting a military operation in the border areas.

“Iran will then prepare itself for more deep penetration to the territory (of northern Iraq. - RT) than the common border area,” Shamkhani said, speaking about the likely actions of the Islamic Republic after the referendum.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in turn, did not talk about the likelihood of a military invasion, but postponed the meeting of the country's National Security Council from September 27 to 22, 2017. On this day, the Turkish president is due to return from the United States, where he plans to discuss the Kurdish issue with President Trump.

“After this meeting and the meeting of the Turkish cabinet, Barzani will understand even better how sensitive the referendum issue is for Turkey,” Erdogan said.

In addition, September 18, 2017 Turkish troops began unplanned military exercises on the border with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi was the harshest in his statements. “If the Iraqi population is threatened with the use of illegal force, then we are ready for a military invasion,” al-Abadi told AFP. However, he stressed that he is ready for negotiations with Erbil.

Analysts note that one of the main irritating factors for the Iraqi leadership was the intention to hold a referendum in Kirkuk, which is not part of the Kurdish autonomy.

“This is a factor that could contribute to a further conflict with Baghdad, because oil fields are located there,” Sergei Balmasov, an expert at the Institute of the Middle East, previously noted to RT.

However, as Prime Minister of Iraqi Kurdistan Nechirvan Barzani said in an exclusive interview with RT, holding a referendum in Kirkuk, the Kurds are not revising the boundaries of their autonomy.

“The referendum will not determine the borders of Kurdistan. This can only be done through serious dialogue with Baghdad. We, the people living in the Kurdistan region, in particular the Kurds, do not want to impose our will on other peoples and population groups in this region, such as Arabs, Turkomans, Christians and other groups living in various areas within these borders,” RT emphasized Barzani.

Dangerous scenarios

As Kirill Semyonov noted, attempts to resolve the Kurdish issue by force are fraught serious problems, primarily for Baghdad and Ankara.

“The question is whether Iraq has real leverage, and the question is how this conflict will end,” the RT expert noted. “Perhaps there will be an expansion of the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan.” “The Peshmerga is a very capable force, comparable to the Iraqi army,” the expert noted.

For Turkey, there is a danger of all Kurds uniting against it if it decides to intervene in Iraqi Kurdistan. The fact is that previously it was Ankara that supported the Barzani regime in opposition to the radicals who were part of the umbrella structure of the Union of Kurdistan Communities. This association is led by none other than the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Abdullah Ocalan.

The association also includes the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which controls northeast Syria, and the Free Life Party in Kurdistan, which is fighting against Iran.

• Masoud Barzani
• SAFIN HAMED

“There is a threat that if there is severe pressure on the Barzani regime, he may make contact with his opponents from the PYD, then there will be an anti-Turkish consensus among all Kurdish forces,” the expert claims. As a result, a united anti-Turkish front will arise along the entire southeastern border of Turkey.

“These countries (Iran and Türkiye. - RT) can influence the situation economically, politically, and in other ways,” the faculty teacher emphasized RT humanities HSE National Research University Grigory Lukyanov. “Nevertheless, this kind of intervention promises certain risks, direct confrontation with the main ally of the Kurds, the United States of America.”

“These countries will weigh their every step before taking it,” the political scientist notes.

The situation in Kurdistan is also complicated by internal contradictions. The referendum was opposed by the second largest party in the region's parliament, the center-left party Gorran - Movement for Change and the Kurdistan Islamic Group. They are not happy that the referendum is being held without the consent of parliament.

Representatives of the Turkoman and Arab communities also intend to boycott the expression of the people's will. On August 20, 2017, the Sinjar region, populated by Yazidi Kurds, declared its own autonomy from the Barzani regime. Sinjar is home to Shiite militias that do not support the referendum. There are already reports of clashes between Shiites and Kurdish Peshmerga in disputed areas. Finally, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which controls the east of the region with its center in Sulaymaniyah, on September 16, 2017 called for more careful consideration of the “alternative” to the referendum proposed by the US, UK and the UN, which the leadership in Erbil chose to reject.

Frozen independence

As Rudaw notes, this alternative plan involves postponing the referendum to 2019. In return, Erbil was offered to discuss the Kurdish issue at the UN. Barzani considers this proposal insufficient and does not meet the demands of the Kurds.

According to experts, the United States is rather forced to support the territorial integrity of Iraq, since, together with the Kurds, it also supports the government of Haider Abadi. However, if independence is declared following a referendum, they will not leave Kurdistan without support. “The United States may temporarily suspend financial assistance to the Kurds, but then they will restore it in full,” notes Kirill Semyonov.

“Kurdistan is important for the location of military installations in the United States, this the best place to gain a foothold in the region, with a loyal environment,” the expert explains the American motives.

The political scientist emphasizes that it is very likely that the Kurdish leadership will not declare independence following the results of the referendum, but will use it as a tool of pressure on Baghdad and, possibly, Ankara.

“The Kurds will weigh their positions in consultation with the Americans, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel,” says the expert.

“When we say that a referendum will be held on the 25th, this does not mean that the very next day after it we will declare independence,” Prime Minister of the Kurdish Autonomy Nechirvan Barzani said in an exclusive interview with RT. “The whole point of holding such a referendum is to express the will and desire of the people, the nation as a whole. This will be a mandate for the political leadership to hold further discussions and promote this idea in dialogue with Baghdad.”

According to him, interested parties will try to “freeze this issue for a while.” “Most likely, this will resemble the situation around Kosovo,” the expert notes. In his opinion, although relations with Iraqi Kurdistan will continue after the referendum as de facto independent, recognition of it as a sovereign state will not come soon.

* “Islamic State” (IS, ISIS) is a terrorist group banned in Russia.