Andrey Vasilkov

American inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has become the author of many technological forecasts. He published his first predictions in the book “The Age of Thinking Machines,” published in 1990. The last time Ray voiced his vision of the future was a week ago at the SAE 2015 international congress in Detroit. If you collect these dates into a single list, you will get a detailed forecast of the development of key industries until the end of the 21st century.

Raymond Kurzweil became interested in the parallel development of humans and machines while studying at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He always found unexpected directions - from developing speech recognition systems to solving the problem of immortality. While the digitization of consciousness and its placement in a computer model of the brain seems like science fiction, but the winner of many awards and the author of the book “How to Create a Mind” is ready to name the dates for the appearance of technologies that will facilitate this.

Recently, turning fantastic ideas into reality has become an immediate task for him, since for three years now he has been the technical director of the division for the development of machine learning and natural language processing methods at Google.

Ray's futurological announcements are interesting, if only because many of his early predictions are coming true before our eyes. We are talking about augmented and virtual reality systems, wearable electronics, smart clothing, electronic assistants (like Google, Siri and Cortana), self-driving cars and dozens of other changes in everyday life. What awaits us in the near future, if we are smart enough to live to see it?

2019
Most people will have multiple computers, although the meaning of the term itself will also change. The computing power of computers costing up to $4,000 will reach 20 quadrillion calculations per second. Microcomputers will be embedded everywhere - in clothing, jewelry, furniture and even walls. The same applies to photo and video cameras, the lenses of which are reduced to the size of a pinhead.

People will receive virtual reality systems that form images directly on their retina. Users will communicate with their computers through a two-way speech and gesture interface, with little or no keyboard input. Cables and wired interfaces for peripheral devices will almost completely disappear.

All students will have access to computers. The main training will be structured in the form of remote adaptive courses, in which students and teachers will attend remotely.

Blind and visually impaired people will be able to wear glasses that will interpret the real world through speech. Similarly, deaf people will use wearable devices that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. There will also be an artificial retina, a bionic ear and other neuroimplants, but they will exist in limited numbers.

Patients with spinal cord injuries will be able to walk again using an exoskeleton controlled via a brain-computer interface or direct commands from their own nerve endings.

Numerous haptic feedback devices will appear. For example, gloves or even entire suits that broadcast remote touches. They will be used in virtual reality systems and for more emotional communication between people over the Internet, including virtual sex.

Volumetric lattices of nanotubes will displace silicon from microelectronics. Instead of traditional algorithms, parallel neural networks and genetic algorithms will begin to be used en masse.

Automatic translation systems will become so effective that they will be widely used in professional fields and everyday life.

2021
Internet access will be available from 85% of the earth's surface. It will become predominantly wireless and very cheap. Formal payment for it will be debited automatically.

Computer programs will learn to create works of art at the level of their contemporaries, or even better than them. AI-created paintings, musical compositions and sculptures will appear.

Paper books will become a rarity. The primary means for viewing text will be thin, lightweight, portable displays with very high resolution.

2022
Robots will become as common as pets. Governments in developed countries will begin to pass laws regulating the relationship between people and robots. This will happen a few years earlier with virtual characters, and some will begin to spend more time communicating with them than talking with real people.

2024
Autopilot and driver assistance systems will be widespread in cars, trucks and public transport. In a number of countries, people will be completely prohibited from driving a car without an electronic driver assistant. Between 2020 and 2025, compact personal aircraft will appear.

2025
Wearable electronics will begin to be replaced by implantable ones. We will learn to effectively fight the aging process and will constantly extend our lives with the help of nanorobots and other technologies that do not even have a name yet.

2028
Alternative energy will become one of the key technologies for the development of all others. It will be established as the dominant concept. Solar panels will become so efficient that they will be enough to cover most of the energy costs.

2029
The program will not only be able to completely pass the Turing test, but will do it better than many real interlocutors. A thousand dollar computer will be orders of magnitude superior to the average human brain in most areas.

Brain modeling will become much more accurate. The functions of hundreds of different subregions, algorithms for their development and operation will be determined. They will be decrypted and included in neural network algorithms.

2031
Many people will voluntarily become cyborgs, and due to the abundance of implants, the very term “human being” will be rethought. Organs will be manufactured by machines in any major hospital.

There will be computer implants with direct connection to the brain and individual groups of neurons. They will be able to give a person superpowers - enhance perception, improve memory, increase reaction speed and reduce learning time.

2033
Computers will learn without human intervention. Non-biological forms of intelligence will combine the subtlety of the human mind with the speed, memory and limitless knowledge sharing capabilities of machine intelligence.

Almost all cars will become self-driving. Agricultural work and transport systems will also be fully automated.

2034
The development of AI will lead to the emergence of social movements for the rights of machines. The global orbital protection program will effectively prevent large meteorites and asteroids from falling to Earth.

2038
Transhumanism will become one of the key directions. Neuroimplants will allow you to quickly receive career guidance and any specific knowledge. The body's own cells can be programmed to perform new functions and treat diseases.

2041
Internet traffic will increase hundreds of millions of times, and search engines will be built into everything. Requests can be sent to them even with the power of thought through BCI.

2045
The first realization of physical immortality: nanorobots help overcome apoptosis and protect the body from any negative influences.

2049
Food is usually assembled by nanorobots from scrap materials. Such food is completely indistinguishable from “natural” food, but can be modified in any way by simply modifying the program. For example, it can become more or less caloric, change the content of amino acids, vitamins, microelements, or even initially include enzymes for its digestion. The technology for producing synthetic food will solve the problem of hunger and make food production independent of climatic conditions and the availability of natural resources.

The distinction between virtual reality and what is still commonly called the “real world” will be completely erased. This will be facilitated by both the development of augmented reality systems and the fact that almost all physical objects will be able to perform immediate self-assembly or change their properties.

2072 – 2099
Nanotechnology will give rise to picotechnology. People will learn to manipulate structures measuring one trillionth of a meter. An era of technological singularity will begin, which will spread beyond the Earth along with humanity. Our thinking no longer has advantages over artificial intelligence. People and machines have merged at all levels of existence. Many people don't have a permanent shape at all. They exist in the form of programs, their consciousness is capable of controlling several different physical bodies at once and creating new ones. The boundaries between the material manifestations of personalities are gradually blurring, so it is impossible to accurately determine how many people live on Earth and beyond.

improvement of means and methods of warfare. But war is a product of politics and ideology, therefore the reasons for the strengthening of the military complex and the threat of thermonuclear war should be seen not in science or technical achievements, but in the imperfection of society itself, oriented towards violence.

Thus, the main aspects of this problem, as well as the environmental one (discussed in the previous question), convince and allow us to conclude that the global problems of our time are not purely technical, but social in nature. They include a whole complex of socio-economic, political, ideological, etc. reasons and aspects. Therefore, the solution to global problems must fundamentally go through the unity of the technical, scientific and social with the dominance of the latter and with an orientation towards humanistic values.

Literature

2. Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ch. 12, paragraph 3.

Control questions

1. Name the main features of post-industrial society.

2. Why is modern society also called information society?

3. Expand the concept of technocracy. What is its negative role for modern man?

4. What is the reason for the emergence of technical alarmism?

5. On what basis does cultural criticism build its reasoning?

6. What problems of modern man are caused by the rapid development of science and technology?

8. What problems of our time are called “global”? What are the reasons for their occurrence?

9. Name the current major global problems.

Section 10. FUTURE OF HUMANITY: FORECASTS AND PROSPECTS

Topic 10.1. POSSIBILITIES FOR PRESENTING THE FUTURE

When building prospects for the development of man and humanity, one should take into account the complexity of this phenomenon itself: spirituality, social essence and natural-biological existence. The task is difficult because the human world itself is complex and largely unpredictable, built on the active intervention of the ideal in the course of development. Nevertheless, public thought, due to its creative ability, inevitably moves to forecasts of the future, relying on the past and present. But if early concepts, without a developed scientific methodology of knowledge, were based on dreams and fantasies, then the modern vision of the future seeks to use the entire arsenal of scientific achievements, primarily in the field of humanities. However, when using scientific data, we should not forget that philosophical knowledge is different from scientific knowledge, therefore its forecasts should be based on the involvement of man as a living active force in current events in the world. Therefore, philosophy, taking into account the subjective factor of development, moves away from the principle of unambiguity and inevitability of the history of man and society. But, having a predictive function, it makes its own predictions about the future. (Although some philosophers deny the possibility of foresight.)

In justifying the possibility of predicting the future, the following aspects are highlighted: ontological, epistemological, logical, neurophysiological, social.

Ontological aspect lies in the fact that prediction is possible of the very essence of existence - its objective laws, cause-and-effect relationships. Based on dialectics, the development mechanism remains unchanged before each qualitative leap, and therefore the future can be traced.

Epistemological aspect is based on the fact that knowledge of the world is possible, constantly expanding and deepening, therefore forecasting as a special knowledge is also possible.

Logical aspect emphasizes the constancy of the laws of logic, which help organize human thinking and, accordingly, cognition.

Neurophysiological aspect is based on the ability of consciousness and the brain to proactively reflect reality.

Social aspect lies in the fact that humanity strives, based on its own experience of development, to model the future.

Literature

1. Philosophy / Ed. T.I. Kokhanovskaya. – Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ch. 12, paragraph 1.

Topic 10.2. NEW WAYS OF KNOWING HUMAN AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

The successes of modern science and technology in the study of the biological nature of man, the identification of his natural biological uniqueness (evolution, types of nervous activity, laws of biological regulation and life rhythm, genetic structure, etc.) have formulated a special direction in philosophical prognostication concerning individual biologicalhuman development prospects. The issues under consideration concern the extension of a person’s individual life, the possibility of natural evolutionary or artificial changes in his biological nature, etc.

One of the ways to make this prediction is to use the discoveries of genetics, which studies the interaction of heredity and environment. The practical use of artificial genes, which is already used in medicine, allows us to expand the adaptive capabilities of a person, especially those who are endowed with hereditary diseases. Human Genetics - Insights

â the innermost secrets of his biological existence, as a result of which a greater liberation of man from nature can be achieved, since in this case he becomes literally the creator of himself. “Genetic engineering” and “eugenics” (from the Greek eugenes - good kind), which developed on the basis of genetics, set as their task the improvement of the human race. Intensive study of existing genetic variability, obtaining, over time, deeper knowledge regarding the gene pool and genetic volume of populations will make it possible to create plans for controlling the biological structure of man, adapting him to a specific environment.

Undoubtedly, the research of genetics is fruitful, but we should not forget that philosophy comes from the versatility of man. Its humanistic meaning lies primarily in the representation of man as a part of not only the natural world, but also the social and spiritual one. Man's future will be greatly empowered by harnessing the variability of the gene pool, but will he accept responsibility for his conscious ability to control his own genetic destiny? If a person begins to control his own evolution, he must clearly understand the specific values ​​\u200b\u200bto the realization of which his efforts will be applied. Is a person capable of this? And in whose hands will this regulation be? From a philosophical point of view, the question is also to what extent will a person socially and spiritually retain identity with himself? To what extent will the principle of humanism correspond to its content if the person himself becomes a “guinea pig”?

Another focus of future concepts places emphasis on social and spiritual forces of man. Based on the values ​​of technogenic civilization, the authors see “humanized” technology as the prospects for society. In their opinion, technology and new technologies must take into account man and the nature around him. The socio-political progress of the future will be determined by the extent to which it will be possible to process the achievements of scientific and technological progress in social terms. The path of advancement is not a return to old ideas, but the development of newly thought out technologies. New technologies, in their opinion, require an “engineer of the future” who

â In the process of his professional training, he should least of all be “pumped up” with technical knowledge. Progress, undoubtedly, will depend not least on the fact that the creative creative activity of an engineer is determined by thinking within the framework of entire systems, taking into account non-technical conditions and connections, which in itself means the subordination of technology to human goals. This process can be understood as a change of priorities: it is not technology that dominates man, but man uses it for the comprehensive development of his essential powers.

A large place in prognostic concepts is occupied by ideas of evolutionism and education of a new ecological consciousness of human involvement in cosmic evolution. At one time, V.I. Vernadsky, Teilhard de Chardin and their modern followers built their reasoning on the basis of the unity of man and nature through man (from man to nature), counting on his increased intellectual potential. The essence of their views is that as a result of the evolutionary process, a new geological force arises - the scientific thought of social humanity. Under the influence of scientific thought and human labor, the biosphere transforms into a new state - the noosphere. As a result of this, the connection “universe - nature - man” receives a new quality, where a person with his mind becomes the center of this connection. Therefore, at a certain stage of development of civilization, humanity will have to take responsibility for its further evolution in order to survive. The evolution of the biosphere is becoming directional. Today we use the term for this

"coevolution" of man and the biosphere. They put forward the process of informatization as a unique feature and at the same time a factor in the development of modern society, which contributes to the evolutionary processes of unity of people with nature, space and each other.

Literature

1. Philosophy / Ed. A.F. Zotova et al. - M., 2003. - Section. 5, ch. 7, paragraph 5.

2. Philosophy / Ed. T.I. Kokhanovskaya. – Rostov-on-Don, 2003. – Ch. 12, paragraph 2.

Control questions

1. What is the specificity of philosophical foresight as opposed to scientific foresight?

2. What are the main philosophical aspects of the ability to predict the future that should be noted?

3. Why can’t focusing only on biological changes in a person fully reveal the prospects for his development?

4. What is the meaning of the idea of ​​“humanized technology”?

5. What are the ideas of evolutionism based on?

In the modern era, humanity acquires unity not only anthropological - as a biological species, but also social - uniting into an integral global social system, and cultural - since in the interchange of achievements of different cultures a single universal human culture is formed.

Taking into account the current level of social development and the particular severity of the global problems facing humanity, various social forecasts are made for the prospects of humanity.

Social forecasts for the prospects of humanity

Pessimistic forecasts (“ecological pessimism”)

Moderately optimistic forecasts (“scientific and technological optimism”)

It is impossible to solve the global problems of humanity, since this will require the implementation of measures that are practically impossible to implement (for example, stopping population growth, abandoning technical and technological progress, reducing consumption, etc.). d.). The inevitability of an environmental catastrophe, the “end of history,” the death of humanity

Scientific and technical discoveries and technological innovations can become the basis for solving the most complex global problems. The condition for this is the acceptance by the world community of the concept of “sustainable development”, according to which scientific, technical and technological revolutions must be subordinated to the interests of survival and preservation of the natural environment of humankind.

Training tasks

Part 1 (A)

When completing the tasks of this part in the answer form

No. 1, under the number of the task you are performing, put an “x” in the box whose number corresponds to the number

the answer you chose.

A 1. Man, according to modern ideas,

there is a creature

1) spiritual 3) biological

2) social 4) biosocial

2. Ivan is tall, thin, with beautiful facial features, courageous, calculating, slow and careful. All this characterizes Ivan as

1) personality 3) individuality

2) citizen 4) professional

3. Are the following judgments about the similarities and differences between humans and animals true?

A. Ants and other “social” animals work in the same way as people.

B. All animal species, unlike humans, always act according to a genetic program.

4. What feature characterizes a person as a person?

1) neurodynamic properties of the brain

2) psychophysiological functions

3) ease in activity

4) life position

5. Definition: “The set of ideas, views, theories, as well as feelings, habits and mores of a certain social community or group” refers to the concept

1) public consciousness 3) everyday consciousness

2) society 4) ideology

6. The enthusiasm of the population, characteristic of the USSR in

The 30s of the XX century is an example

1) philosophical consciousness 3) legal consciousness

2) scientific consciousness 4) mass consciousness

7. Are the following judgments about individual consciousness true?

A. Individual consciousness is characterized by that general thing that is characteristic of the social group to which a given person belongs.

B. Individual consciousness is characterized by traits inherent in a given person.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

8. Which situation correctly characterizes public consciousness?

1) public consciousness always hinders social development

2) public consciousness determines the spiritual life of society

3) social consciousness does not have independence in relation to social existence

4) public consciousness is reduced to a simple sum of individual consciousnesses

9. Definition: “The act of directly turning consciousness to itself” refers to the concept

1) self-realization 3) self-awareness

2) self-education 4) self-control

10. Nikolai, in the processes of perception, representation, reflection and experience, at some moments switches attention from the object of mental activity to his own state and evaluates himself. That's an example

1) self-education

2) self-observation

3) knowing yourself by knowing others

4) self-education

11. Are the following judgments about self-awareness true? A. Self-awareness is formed as the external world is reflected.

B. Self-awareness is formed as one learns about oneself

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

12. Indicate a sign that characterizes social behavior

1) related to a person’s position in society

2) consists of actions

3) has no effect on people

4) consists of actions

13. Definition: “A generalized system of a person’s views on the world as a whole, on his own place in it, a person’s understanding and assessment of the meaning of his life and activities” refers to the concept

1) mentality 3) consciousness

2) worldview 4) attitude

14. The essence of what type of worldview is revealed by the above statement: “The most important question for us is the question about man. Everything comes from him and everything returns to him”?

1) theocentrism 3) naturecentrism

2) science-centrism 4) anthropocentrism

15. Are the following judgments about worldview true? A. Worldview is inherent only to the individual.

B. Worldview determines the overall direction

personality.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

16. Does not apply to a religious worldview

1) close connection with world cultural heritage

2) the desire to give a person faith in the possibility of achieving his goals

3) orientation towards solving problems related to the spiritual needs of a person

4) formulation of a set of rationally constructed forecasts

17. Both sensory and rational knowledge

1) forms ideas and knowledge about the subject

2) begins with a feeling

3) gives a visual image of the object

4) uses logical reasoning

18. What knowledge does the following expressions correspond to: “by eye”, “a little bit”, “pinch”?

1) scientific 3) practical

2) artistic 4) everyday

19. Are the following judgments about cognition true?

A. Cognition is a basic human need. B. Cognition is always creative.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

20. The statement: “A product has value” is an example

1) ideas 3) judgments

2) concepts 4) inferences

21. Knowledge corresponding to its subject, coinciding with it, is

1) law 2) truth 3) problem 4) principle

22. The statement: “The Hawaiian Islands lie in the Pacific Ocean” is an example

1) relative truth 3) subjective truth

2) delusion 4) absolute truth

23. Are the following truth statements true?

A. Absolute truth is knowledge with which everyone agrees, since it is something that is obvious and cannot be imagined otherwise.

B. Relative truth is knowledge sufficient for a person to successfully conduct his affairs.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

24. The relativity of truth lies

1) in the incompleteness of scientific theories

2) in the subjectivity of the form of knowledge of truth

3) in the approximate judgments of “true” and “false”

4) in all of the above

25. The basis of human existence is

1) friendship 3) consumerism

2) love 4) activity

26. Carrying out an analysis of the possible consequences of planned reforms in society is an example of activity

1) value-oriented

2) educational

3) prognostic

4) material and production

27. Are the following judgments about human activity true?

A. Human activity is expressed in adaptation to the natural environment through its large-scale transformation, leading to the creation of an artificial living environment.

B. Human activity presupposes the conscious setting of goals related to the ability to analyze the situation.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

28. Meaningful drivers of human activity include

1) habits 2) drives 3) motives 4) emotions

29. A person’s purposeful attitude towards any object of his need is

1) ability 2) interest 3) belief 4) principle

30. Citizen N., being a doctor, paints landscapes in his free time. What type of need does citizen N. satisfy in this way?

1) spiritual 3) social

2) biological 4) organic

31. Are the following judgments about a person’s interest true?

A. A person's interest is always combined with his inclination. B. Human interest is the most important motivation for various types of activities.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

32. Citizen K., having retired, helps her daughter raise her first-grader grandson: she accompanies him to school, takes him home after school, helps

him to do his homework. The reason is Citizen K.’s affection for the little man, her care for him. What type of need does citizen K satisfy in this way?

1) physiological 3) prestigious

2) existential 4) social

33. A specific way of being of a person associated with his ability to choose decisions and perform actions in accordance with his ideals, interests and goals is

1) responsibility 3) need

2) freedom 4) necessity

34. The statement: “Include in your current choice of means of influencing nature only those that allow you to preserve the future integrity of man” illustrates the concept

1) freedom 3) knowledge

2) creativity 4) responsibility

35. Are the following judgments about personal freedom true? A. Personal freedom is manifested in conscious adherence to established norms.

B. Personal freedom is manifested in a person’s choice of his life path.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

36. Mikhail excludes any possibility of choice. What additional information would lead us to conclude that Mikhail is a fatalist?

1) every human action is predetermined in advance

2) the decision is made by a person based on his subjective desires

3) the will of man is the fundamental principle of all things

4) chance plays a decisive role in a person’s life

37. Which feature characterizes society as a system?

1) constant development

2) part of the material world

3) isolation from nature

4) ways of interaction between people

38. Schools, universities, theaters, museums belong to the sphere of public life

2) social 4) spiritual

39. Are the following judgments about society true?

A. Society is the population of the Earth, the totality of all peoples.

B. Society is a certain group of people who have united for communication, joint activities, mutual assistance and support for each other.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

40. Creation of the State Council in the Russian Federation as an advisory and advisory body of the heads of the constituent entities of Russia under the President of the Russian Federation. What area of ​​public life does this fact relate to?

1) economic 3) political

2) social 4) spiritual

41. The institution of society is

1) a person’s way of relating to the outside world, which consists of transforming and subordinating it to the person’s goals

2) a historically established, stable form of organizing the joint activities of people performing certain functions in society, the main one of which is meeting social needs

3) relatively stable connections between social groups, peoples, states and other associations of people that arise in different spheres of human activity

4) the totality of all types of transformative activity, as well as the result of this activity, including a person’s transformation of himself

42. The concept of “social institution” does not include

1) school 2) marriage 3) army 4) friendship

43. Are the following judgments about the institutions of society correct?

A. The institutions of society exercise social control.

B. The institutions of society ensure the integration of the aspirations, actions and interests of individuals.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

44. Social institutions include

1) property 2) motherhood 3) religion 4) court

45. Definition: “The result of the activities of man and society, the totality of material and spiritual values ​​created by man” refers to the concept

1) art 2) creativity 3) science 4) culture

46. ​​Spiritual culture includes

1) equipment 3) building

2) art 4) computer

47. Are the following judgments about innovation in culture true?

A. Innovation in culture means the development of genre, type, and style diversity of art.

B. Innovation in culture means the discovery of new sides and facets of the spiritual world of man.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

48. The world of this culture has many faces: adventure and detective literature; love lyrics; nerve-wracking cinematic productions with scenes of fights, murders, horror, and erotica; pop music, rock, rap, reggae, etc.; popular essays on scientific, pseudo-scientific and pseudoscientific matters; samples of equipment; the shops; sensational news; mysterious occult phenomena; advertising; sport. What form of culture are we talking about?

1) mass 3) elite

2) folk 4) national

49. Definition: “The sphere of human activity, the function of which is the development and theoretical systematization of objective knowledge about reality” refers to the concept

1) education 3) science

2) creativity 4) art

50. Citizen L. is a researcher who analyzes texts. This allows him to study the phenomena of the soul

cow culture. What branch of scientific knowledge does the work of citizen L. belong to?

1) natural sciences 3) social sciences

2) technical sciences 4) humanities

51. Are the following statements about science true?

A. Science reflects reality in artistic images.

B. Science can be viewed as a system of knowledge.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

52. Employees of the department of one of the universities, along with teaching activities, published a scientific work. What additional information will help determine that we are talking about work in the field of social sciences?

1) in the process of work, publications of other scientists were used

2) during the work, an experiment was systematically used

53. Toward general trends in the development of education in

RF does not apply

1) continuity of education

2) compulsory higher education

3) computerization of the education process

4) variety of educational paths

54. At the secondary school in the city of N., teachers pay great attention to the student’s personality, his interests, needs, and individual characteristics, which allows him to reveal the creative abilities of each child. This example illustrates the trend in the development of Russian education

1) internationalization 3) humanization

2) humanitarization 4) democratization

55. Are the following judgments about the social function of education true?

A. The social function of education is that it directly regulates social processes in society.

B. The social function of education is that a person masters social experience, and the socialization of the individual occurs.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

56. In one of the regions, the sociological service conducted a survey of high school graduates. They were asked the question: “What is the merit of the school in your education?”

The survey results are presented in the table.

1) The majority of girls surveyed believe that knowledge of foreign languages ​​is the merit of the school in their education.

2) In third place in popularity among the boys surveyed was general literacy as a credit to the school for their education.

3) A third of the girls surveyed pointed to general literacy as a merit of the school in their education.

4) More girls than boys noted computer literacy as a merit of the school in education.

57. A specific property of religion is

1) connection with the world of human experiences

2) belief in a better future

3) use of symbolism

4) belief in the reality of a miracle

58. Does not apply to world religions

1) Hinduism 2) Islam 3) Buddhism 4) Christianity

59. Are the following judgments about the essence of religion correct?

A. Religion is certain views and ideas of people based on belief in the existence of God or

gods, supernatural.

B. Religion is the corresponding rituals and cults.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

60. In the country of B., the sociological service conducted a survey of adult citizens. They were asked the question: “What function of religion in modern society should be a priority?”

% 45%

Stress relief, comfort, spiritual pleasure

Understanding the world, society, people

Ordering the thoughts and aspirations of people

Association of individuals, groups

Analyze the survey results and choose the correct statement.

1) The minority of respondents believes that the priority function of religion in modern society should be the unification of individuals and groups.

2) A third of respondents see the priority function of religion in modern society as ordering

thoughts and aspirations of people.

3) The number of respondents who identified the understanding of religion as a priority function in modern society.

the formation of the world, society, man, more than those who chose to unite individuals and groups.

4) A quarter of respondents identified streamlining people’s thoughts and aspirations as a priority function.

tions of religion in modern society.

61. Art is characterized by the fact that it

1) based on belief in the supernatural

2) reflects reality in figurative and symbolic form

3) performs the function of social management

4) comprehensively describes and explains events and phenomena

62. Art critic D. argued: “The secret of art is that it touches our feelings. Any work of art must certainly influence human feelings and give rise to an emotional response.” What function of art are we talking about?

1) impact on the sphere of human emotions

2) formation of aesthetic taste

3) impact on the human psyche

4) reflection of those aspects of life that are difficult for science to access

63. Are the following judgments about art true?

A. Art is characterized by its correspondence with reality.

B. Art is characterized by precision and certainty.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

64. In the country of M., the sociological service conducted a survey of adult citizens. They were asked the question: “What essential condition must any work of art meet?”

The survey results are presented in the diagram.

Impact on the senses

Be interesting

Formation of aesthetic taste

Anticipating the Future

Analyze the survey results and choose the correct statement.

1) Second place in popularity among respondents as an indispensable condition that must be met

Any work of art took the formation of aesthetic taste.

2) There are fewer respondents among those who chose the impact on feelings as an indispensable condition that any work of art must meet than those who preferred the formation of aesthetic taste.

3) The overwhelming number of respondents see an impact on the senses as an indispensable condition that any work of art must meet.

4) The minimum number of respondents indicated anticipation of the future as an indispensable condition that any work of art must meet.

65. Morality is characterized by the following feature(s)

1) has relative independence

2) has a historical character

3) may be critical of the accepted way of life

4) all of the above

66. What behavior, reflected in the listed situations, is subject only to moral norms?

1) Tatyana spoke rudely to her friend K.

2) Anton committed the theft of the property of citizen P.

3) thirteen-year-old Sergei rode his bicycle onto the roadway

4) grinder G. missed eight working days

67. Are the following judgments about morality correct? A. Morality is based on the ideas of good and evil.

B. Morality is a set of ethical values ​​based on certain norms and commandments.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

68. The norms “respect your elders” and “be merciful to the weak” belong to the sphere

1) art 2) morality 3) science 4) law

69. Definition: “Directed development, which is characterized by a transition from lower to higher, from less perfect to more perfect” refers to the concept

1) stagnation 3) regression

2) progress 4) modernization

70. Peter's transformations in the first quarter

XVIII century are an example

1) stagnation 3) evolution

2) counter-reforms 4) modernization

71. Are the following judgments about social progress true?

A. Progress in one area of ​​social life may be accompanied by regression in another.

B. Social progress can be graphically depicted as an ascending broken line.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

72. In the country of R., the sociological service conducted a survey of adult citizens: 25-year-old and 60-year-old residents. They were asked the question: “What, in your opinion, is the criterion of social progress?”

The survey results are presented in a histogram.

% 65%

25-year-old residents 60-year-old residents

Development of the human mind

Progress of science and technology

Increasing degree of human freedom

Improving people's morality

Analyze the survey data and choose the correct statement.

1) A third of the 60-year-old residents surveyed pointed to an increase in the degree of human freedom as a criterion of social progress.

2) The development of the human mind as a criterion of social progress is more popular among 25-year-olds than among 60-year-olds.

3) The percentage of people who are confident that the criterion of social progress is the improvement of people’s morality decreases with age.

4) A quarter of all respondents believe that the criterion of social progress is the progress of science and technology.

73. What feature characterizes a traditional society?

1) intensive urbanization

2) predominance of ascribed social status

3) high social mobility

4) increase in consumption level

74. V. society is dominated by the rural population, whose ideal is observance of customs and piety. Savings are insignificant and are spent not on production, but on consumption. State ownership dominates. What type of society is V.?

1) post-industrial

2) industrial

3) traditional

4) informational

75. Are the following judgments about industrial society true?

A. In economic terms, an industrial society is characterized by machine production, conveyor belts, standardization, and scientific organization of labor.

B. An industrial society is characterized politically by a despotic regime.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

76. Automation of production is widespread in R. society, and computerization is being successfully carried out. What additional information will allow us to conclude that R.'s society is post-industrial?

1) the main product of production is industrial products

2) the main factor of production is knowledge

3) widespread use of mechanisms and technologies

4) class division of society

77. Global problems of our time include(s)

1) energy problem

2) the problem of subsoil development in the countries of the East and Latin America

3) the problem of interaction between Russia and the West

4) all of the above

78. The population is growing faster in the less developed countries of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, which sharply exacerbates their problems of housing, education, medical care and, above all, food. According to experts, in the future over 80% of the world’s population will live in these countries. On the other hand, a number of countries and regions of the world, including Western Europe and Russia, are experiencing an alarming population decline and significant aging. This situation indicates the presence of a global problem

1) war and peace 3) demographic

2) economic 4) energy

79. Are the following judgments about the consequences of the globalization process true?

A. The process of globalization leads to a reduction in production costs.

B. The process of globalization leads to the formation of a single standard of consumption.

1) only A is true 3) both judgments are true

2) only B is true 4) both judgments are incorrect

80. In modern conditions, the amount of industrial waste has sharply increased, which leads to the poisoning of the fertile layer of soil and drinking water supplies, making the environmental problem particularly pressing. What additional information would allow us to conclude that the environmental problem is global?

1) affects the interests of developed countries of the world

2) involves the development of cooperation between several states

3) threatens the development of African countries

4) the future fate of humanity depends on its decision

Part 2 (B)

When completing the tasks in this part, write down your answer in answer form No. 1 next to the task number (B1 - B6), starting from the first cell. The answer must be given in the form of a word, a sequence of letters or numbers without spaces or punctuation. Write each letter or number in a separate box in accordance with the examples given.

1. Write down the word missing in the diagram.

3. Write down the word missing in the diagram.

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Evolution...

Answer: .

1. Below is a list of terms. All of them are for

with the exception of one, are associated with the concept of “worldview”.

Universe; worldview; system of values; worldview; beliefs.

"worldview".

2. Below is a list of terms. All of them, with the exception of one, are associated with the concept of “truth”. Reflection of reality; knowledge; specifically

ness; dependence on a person; process.

Find and write down a term not related to the concept

"true".

3. Below is a list of terms. All of them, with the exception of one, are associated with the concept of “progress”. Social reform; stagnation; social revolution

tion; community development; modernization.

Find and write down a term not related to the concept

"progress".

1. Establish correspondence between types of activities

Bodies and their manifestations: for each position given in the first column, select the corresponding position from the second column.

MANIFESTATIONS OF ACTIVITY

A) creation of artistic values

B) making a scientific discovery

C) carrying out reforms in society

D) implementation of global modeling

D) improvement of production technologies

ACTIVITIES

1) material

2) spiritual

Write down the selected numbers in the table, and then transfer the resulting sequence of numbers to the answer form (without spaces or any symbols).

3. Establish a correspondence between the elements of the spiritual sphere of society’s life and their main functions: for each position given in the first column, select the corresponding position from the second column.

ELEMENTS

MAIN FUNCTIONS

A) formation of aesthetic tastes and human needs

B) reflection and mastery of those aspects of life that are difficult for science to access

C) creating conditions and prerequisites for social mobility of people

person or social group

D) preservation and retransmission of the fundamentals of science from generation to generation

D) restoration in the sphere of spirit of harmony lost by man in

reality

THE SPIRITUAL SPHERE OF SOCIETY'S LIFE

Victorians imagined that within 100 years cities would have moving sidewalks, houses that could be moved on rails, bad weather shelters, personal airships and other bourgeois delights. The fantasies of the Victorian romantics did not extend beyond such urban improvements, although many ideas found their embodiment during the 20th century.

But what awaits us in the 21st century? And what can we, residents of the digital age, for whom artificial intelligence and “smart technologies” have become commonplace, fantasize about? About superpowers? About even more “smart technologies”? Or about the return of good old inventions - like the airship?

Source: Flickr

You can guess endlessly, or you can simply study the most complete futurological forecast by Raymond Kurzweil, Google's technical director. He has been publishing his forecasts of the technological achievements of modern civilization since the 1990s, and if you try to collect all the predictions he has made over 25 years in interviews, lectures, books and blogs, you can trace the history of the probable future from 2019 to 2099. So, the future through the eyes of Ray Kurzweil.

2019 – Wires and cables for personal and peripheral devices of any field will become a thing of the past.

2020 – Personal computers will achieve computing power comparable to the human brain.

2021 – Wireless Internet will cover 85% of the Earth's surface.

2022 – The USA and Europe will begin to pass laws regulating the relationship between people and robots. The rights and obligations of robots, their activities and any restrictions will be strictly regulated.

Source: Flickr

2024 – Elements of computer intelligence will become mandatory in cars, and people will be prohibited from driving a car that is not equipped with a computer assistant.

2025 – The emergence and development of a mass market for implant gadgets.

2026 – Thanks to scientific progress, per unit of time we will extend our lives by more time than has passed.

2027 – A personal robot capable of performing complex actions will become as commonplace as a dishwasher or coffee maker.

2028 – Solar energy will become so cheap and widespread that it will satisfy the entire total energy needs of humanity.

2029 – A computer will be able to pass the Turing test, proving that it has intelligence in the human sense of the word. According to Kurzweil, this will be achieved through computer simulation of the human brain.

2030 – Thanks to the flourishing of nanotechnology in industry, the production of products will become significantly cheaper.

2031 – 3D printers for printing human organs will be used in any hospitals.

2032 – Nanorobots will begin to be used for medical purposes: they will be able to deliver nutrients to human cells, remove waste and conduct detailed scans of the human brain, which will help to better understand the details of its work.

Source: Flickr

2033 – Self-driving cars will appear on the roads.

2034 – “The First Date of a Man with Artificial Intelligence” is a kind of continuation of the film “Her”, but only with minor amendments: a virtual lover can be equipped with a “body” by projecting an image onto the retina of the eye, for example, using contact lenses or virtual reality glasses.

2035 – Space technology will become sufficiently developed to provide reliable protection of the Earth from the threat of collision with asteroids.

2036 – Using the same approach to biology as to programming, humanity will be able to program cells for the first time to treat diseases, and the use of 3D printers will allow us to grow new tissues and organs.

2037 – A giant breakthrough in understanding the mysteries of the human brain: hundreds of different subregions with specialized functions will be identified, and some of the algorithms that encode the development of these regions will be deciphered and incorporated into the neural networks of computers.

2038 – The emergence of robotic people, products of transhumanistic technologies. These “new Frankensteins” will be equipped with additional intelligence (for example, focused on a specific narrow field of knowledge) and a variety of implants - from camera eyes to additional prosthetic hands.

Imagination allows us to “see” a plausible model of a given situation without the risk associated with its real implementation. Logical reasoning allows you to predict the inevitable consequences of certain actions in a variety of situations, and therefore provides useful information about future events. Induction allows you to establish the relationship between cause and effect, and is a fundamental concept for building a forecast of future events.
Despite the availability of these cognitive tools useful for understanding the future, the probabilistic nature of many natural and social processes has made the task of predicting the future a challenging but desirable goal for many people and cultures over the centuries.
People have always strived to see images of the future. Therefore, prophets and predictors have always had enormous social significance. In order to predict the future, esoteric teachings, astrology, palmistry, and superstitions arose. The development of much of physics is also easily explained as an attempt to make objective predictions about future events. Science fiction arose as a means of ultra-long-range forecasting with the help of artistic imagination.

However, the modern speed of scientific and technological progress has reached such a level that fundamental changes occur many times during the life of one generation, therefore, the vision of the future is built in a completely different light, and, consequently, the task of predicting the paths of further development. Until now, people lived a traditional life, and in that constant, unchanging world, the problem of planning was a normal, correct task. It was raised and, with some degree of probability, solved. Now we find ourselves in an area where the very formulation of the problem of long-term development forecast is incorrect, the horizon for any reliable forecasting is obviously narrowing. However, it is precisely this unpredictability that makes somewhat reliable predictions especially in demand, so it is in this new situation that even minimally correct forecasting becomes critically relevant.

Projected futures include:

Pessimistic pictures of the future (ecological disaster, third world war, nanotechnological disaster), and

A utopian future in which the poorest people live in conditions that today would be considered rich and comfortable, and even the transformation of humanity into a post-human form of life.

Alvin Toffler warns about new difficulties, social conflicts and global problems that humanity will face at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries due to the transition of civilization to the super-industrial (post-industrial) phase.
The accelerating pace of change has entered deeply into our personal lives, forced us into new roles and exposed us to new dangers. All this can be described by the term “futuroshock”. Futuroshock, or future shock, is the overwhelming confusion caused by the premature arrival of the future.

Examples of unfulfilled forecasts
Russian writer and scientist Kirill Eskov wrote about unfulfilled social forecasts in his essay “Our Answer to Fukuyama”:
D.I. Mendeleev considered the most difficult technical problem of the twentieth century to be the disposal of huge amounts of manure (after all, the number of horses, of course, will continue to grow at the same rate);
A. Einstein said ten years before Hiroshima that the practical use of atomic energy would come within a hundred years - not earlier;
Bernard Shaw saw the political map of the future Europe like this: “France and Germany? These are outdated geographical names... By Germany you obviously mean a number of Soviet or near-Soviet republics located between the Ural Range and the North Sea.”

Optimistic future scenarios
Many famous Marxists, as part of their vision of the development of civilization, have repeatedly postulated the onset of communism as an inevitable social future.
Science fiction has developed an image of the future in which there is an interstellar human civilization, sometimes included in a more complex system of civilizations of other intelligent races.
The Star Trek universe depicts a humanistic and optimistic future. An interplanetary Federation has been created in it, professing the principles of tolerance and non-interference. True, in the Star Trek Universe, there are endless space wars between earthlings and the Borg, Cardassians, etc. In David Weber’s Universe, there are continuous wars between the descendants of earthlings among themselves.

Technological singularity
“Within the next thirty years we will have the technical ability to create superhuman intelligence. Soon after this the human age will be completed].
Possible ways to develop superhuman intelligence:
Development of Artificial Intelligence,
Increase in human biological capabilities,
Human-computer systems.
Technological singularity is a proposed point in the future when the evolution of the human mind, as a result of the development of nanotechnology, biotechnology and artificial intelligence, will accelerate to such an extent that further changes will lead to the emergence of a mind with a much higher level of speed and a new quality of thinking.
According to some authors who adhere to this theory, the technological singularity may occur around 2030. However, its onset does not mean the end of history; rather, on the contrary, the Prehistory of mankind will end, and the beginning of its real History will be laid.
There is a hypothesis that there will not be a clearly defined singularity point with an acute crisis. Development is following an S-shaped curve, and will begin to slow down in the near future. And the “singularity” point is the point on the development graph at which its speed is maximum (the middle of the S-shaped curve). For S-curve development, see also:

The emergence of artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence will either be created by people or spontaneously arise in the network (emergent evolution). Artificial intelligence of the future will have the following advantages over human intelligence:

1. the speed of signal propagation between neurons is 100 m/s, and between microcircuits is 300,000 km/s (the speed of light), while the response time of human brain neurons is approximately a billion times less compared to silicon elements (today) and this gap continues to grow;
2. the number of neurons in the human brain is ~ 86 billion, for AI there are practically no restrictions;
3. the life of the AI ​​is unlimited, in particular, for example, due to the possible rewriting of consciousness - the AI ​​program from one electronic environment to another;
4. when managing civilization, the “human factor” will not affect itself (every person always has shortcomings, as well as, possibly, a lack of understanding of development priorities);
5. direct “implantation” of AI into electronic computer networks that are increasingly intertwining the planet (that is, instant simultaneous processing and management of billions of channels).
In recent decades, a new applied area of ​​AI has been developing in the world, specializing in artificial neural networks, which is already providing application of the results in real applications. Neural networks have proven to be very effective for predicting time sequences (such as exchange rates or stock quotes)], for analyzing and assessing risks, and predicting electricity consumption in urban housing areas
In addition to investment tasks, artificial neural networks have begun to be widely used in medical diagnostics. Intensive research and application of neurocomputer technology in the creation of military equipment is underway.
Once trained, the neural network becomes a model that can be applied to new data to make predictions.
Conquest of space

See the article - “Space exploration - forecasts and reality”

Pessimistic future scenarios
Theories of the death of Western civilization do not necessarily include a pessimistic scenario for the future, as they may assume the triumph of other civilizations and cultures.
In connection with the development of nanotechnology, the “gray goo” scenario has recently gained popularity in the press, according to which self-replicating nanorobots that have gotten out of control will absorb the entire biomass of the Earth. However, such a scenario is unlikely if the control source is located close to these robots, meaning appropriate precautions are taken.
According to the pessimistic scenario of the energy crisis, there will simply not be enough energy to support our high-tech civilization, and the world will return to its pre-industrial state.

The biblical revelation of the future represents the onset of the Apocalypse, which includes the birth of the Antichrist, the second coming of Jesus Christ, the end of the world and the Last Judgment.

Scientific predictions:

Future of the Universe
Since our Universe is expanding, we should expect big changes in the Universe in the distant future. There is no clearly established unified theory of the future of the Universe. There are just many different theories.
Big gap. This scenario involves the Universe being torn apart due to its acceleration.
Big compression. This scenario involves the compression of the Universe into a singularity. Extremely unlikely due to observations of the accelerated expansion of the universe.

Man of the future
With the right attitude toward ethical issues and social needs, significant improvements in human ability, social effectiveness, and quality of life can be expected. A higher phase of the evolution of intelligence is ahead. Technological progress leads to the fact that cyborgs, intelligent computers, will soon appear.

Transhumanism
Transhumanism is a philosophical movement based on the assumption that man is not the last link in evolution, and therefore can improve indefinitely.
Transhumanism is a rational and cultural movement that claims that it is possible and necessary to eliminate aging and death, and significantly increase the mental and physical capabilities of humans.
It is the study of the achievements, prospects, and potential dangers of using science, technology, creativity, and other ways to overcome the fundamental limits of human performance.
The goal of cryonics, for example, is to transfer recently deceased or terminal (doomed to death) patients to a point in the future when reparation (“repair”) technologies for cells and tissues become available and, accordingly, it will be possible to restore all body functions. This technology will most likely be nanotechnology and, in particular, molecular nanorobots developed within its framework.
Based on Wikipedia materials.
As we can see, there are forecasts of multidirectional nature. It is in our power and in our interests to make sure that optimistic forecasts come true. Much can be done for this here and now. The “Russian Space” project is part of this work – of a universal scale and volume.
The next series of articles will be devoted to the future of the Earth - Preterraforming: “Cities of the future - “Project Venus”, “Project “Hyperlop” - transport of the future”, “Cities in the ocean - project “Freedomship”, “Seventh Heaven - the floating city of Richard Buckminster Fuller”.
Then a series of articles about new methods of delivering cargo into orbit: “Yuri Artsutanov’s Space Elevator”, “Skyhawk-Skyhook”, “Tsiolkovsky Orbital Tower and the Obayashi Project”, “The Earth Belt - Arthur Clarke Project”
Then a series about projects for transforming the planets of the Solar System - “Terraforming - transforming planets.”: “Moon”, “Mars”, “Mercury” “Venus”

And for dessert - the article: "Scale; Kardashev" - about a method for measuring the technological development of civilization, based on the amount of energy that a civilization can use for its needs. It was proposed by Soviet radio astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in his work “Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,” published in the Astronomical Journal in 1964.

The scale defines three categories, respectively called types I, II, and III: a type I civilization uses all available resources available on its home planet; Type II civilization - harnesses all the energy of its star; Type III - of its galaxy.
Let us note how high was the optimism and focus on the future of Russian scientists - Tsiolkovsky, Artsutanov, Shklovsky, Kardashev and many others, who unconditionally believed in the limitless possibilities of the human mind. And how low this enthusiasm has fallen today - from conquering the stars to a trough of mixed feed, seasoned with cheap, stupefying swill. This is normal - the rollback cycle is ending and soon there will be a new impulse and breakthrough - an already united humanity - examples of the Spice-Ex and Tesla Projects of Elon Musk, the Space Elevator Project of the Japanese company Obayashi, several NASA projects, the Russian lunar station inspire hope and optimism. As well as the future of my project "Russian Space" - a network of parks for children's educational attractions for our future Russian cosmonauts!!!