Which countries are considered outsiders? Washington has lined up rogue countries for democratization. By population

Everything is learned by comparison - this idea was probably adopted by the compilers of the first ratings. And they began to compile them in the United States in the middle of the 19th century. According to historians, businessman Lewis Tappan, who went bankrupt after the economic crisis, decided to create an agency to identify the reliability of companies and banks. Based on financial documents, surveys of employees, government officials and even local residents, experts made a conclusion about the solvency of a particular company. The rating was sold to interested parties. The idea was picked up by other agencies. A century later, world rankings appeared. At first they were only economic, later sociological. Now countries are assessed according to a variety of indicators. For example, according to the happiness index or human development.

What is the role of country ratings in modern times and what do they reflect?

“They say numbers rule the world. No, they only show how they rule the world,” a statement by Johann Wolfgang Goethe could well become the motto of a reputable rating agency. Its specialists compare digital series reflecting different indicators in order to ultimately find out which country is the leader and which is the outsider in the world economy and politics.

Global rankings help compare life in different countries

A rating is an assessment (from the English word rate - to evaluate), which shows the place of a country (or other object) according to some criterion. When it comes to territory, population, and most economic indicators, the assessment is based on exact numbers. If the rating affects sociological aspects, for example, happiness or well-being of people, special formulas are used for calculation, including several criteria.

Economic ratings of countries help to assess how profitable cooperation with foreign partners will be, whether it is worth making investments, and which business will develop best. Ratings of social orientation most often answer one question, formulated in different ways: in which country life is better.

Ratings that are based on several indicators, for example, the happiness index, are often biased

However, not all methods for compiling world rankings provide reliable information. It turned out that data can be manipulated to benefit some companies and even countries, and estimates do not keep up with changes in the economy. According to experts, mistakes have become especially frequent due to the latest economic crisis. For example, rating agencies were unable to predict the collapse of the US real estate market and the bankruptcy of some international corporations.

Depending on where the information was obtained from, the ratings can be divided into three groups:

• based on data from official bodies (in Russia - Rosstat, Rospotrebnadzor, labor inspection, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Internal Affairs and others);
• information from unofficial sources;
• targeted citizen surveys.

Ratings commissioned by the UN, WHO and other international organizations show what problems exist in a particular country

The most respected international rating agencies are Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. In Russia, the weekly “Expert” was among the first to begin mastering this type of activity; they created a special service there. Later it was joined by the National Rating Agency, Rosbusinessconsulting, AK&M, and Rus-Rating. However, Russian ratings have not yet gained confidence at the international level.

World famous American writer Mark Twain said: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” Rating is also a product of statistics. Therefore, when familiarizing yourself with country assessments, it is important to know on the basis of what information they were derived and what factors were taken into account. However, agencies do not always disclose their sources and honestly talk about their calculation methods. And this allows us to doubt the reliability of the rating. In addition, politics has recently influenced a country's position on the list. Sometimes you get amazing results that are hard to believe even if you wanted to. In some cases, it is impossible to make an objective assessment because there is no complete information picture. So ratings, especially complex, multi-component ones, should be treated with a grain of salt.

Video: Israelis disagree with their country’s place in the American magazine’s ranking

Current country rankings

Global rankings are often compiled at the initiative of international organizations. It depends on the company or agency that fulfills the order where a particular country will end up. In single-component ratings, discrepancies are rare. Although there are some there too. For example, the international ranking of states by size of territory does not take into account the annexation of Crimea to Russia. There are especially many discrepancies in ratings based on several criteria. There is no uniform assessment methodology. The most striking examples are determining the standard of living or the happiness index.

Recently, ratings that evaluate not economic, but social and even emotional indicators have become popular.

By standard of living

This ranking is based on a number of economic and social indicators. The main ones are the development of the economy, education, healthcare, citizens' incomes and prices for goods and services, security, and ensuring freedoms. Compilers often consider such concepts as standard of living, well-being and prosperity to be synonymous. A high position in the ranking does not mean that everyone in the country lives equally well, without exception. And low does not always indicate that a country is uninhabitable.

New Zealand is recognized as the most prosperous country in 2017, according to the rating agency Legatum Prosperity Index

The Legatum Prosperity Index agency compiled a rating of the well-being of countries in 2016–2017. The Prosperity Index is calculated based on 9 criteria:

• state of the economy;
• business conditions;
• public administration;
• quality and accessibility of education;
• development of medicine;
• criminal situation;
• personal freedom;
• social potential;
• ecological situation.

The Agency's Legatum Prosperity Index rating includes 149 countries. The top twenty leaders in terms of living standards have not changed significantly for several years. They just move from position to position. In the latest ranking, New Zealand received the highest prosperity index. Great Britain improved its score by 5 points. The USA and Denmark lost 6 lines each. And Finland has also strengthened its position.

The Prosperity Index is not only about the economy and governance, but also about personal freedom

The top 20 prosperous countries include New Zealand, Norway, Finland, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Great Britain, Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland, Iceland, Austria, Belgium, USA, France, Singapore, Slovenia. Spain and Japan fell just short of the top twenty.

Most countries of the former socialist camp are in the middle of the list and closer to the end. Russia and Ukraine, compared to the previous year, dropped by 37 points; they occupy 95th and 107th positions in the ranking.

Russia was ranked lower by the Legatum Prosperity Index agency than Cambodia and Honduras

Outsiders on the prosperity scale are Asian and African countries with an unstable political and economic situation: Pakistan, Burundi, Angola, Mauritania, Iraq, Chad, Congo, Sudan, Central African Republic, Afghanistan, Yemen.

The realization of a person or his potential is one of the criteria when assessing the level of prosperity of a country

Henley & Partners proposes to evaluate countries using the Quality of Nationality Index (QNI). It is derived from internal (stability and economic development, social security, education, business conditions, the presence of military conflicts) and external indicators (attitude towards migrants, visa-free entry for citizens to other countries). In the latest ranking, 159 countries were rated. The best country of 2017, according to Henley & Partners, is Germany. France, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Spain also received the highest scores. The USA is not even among the top twenty leading nationalities, but occupies 28th place. Russia is in 63rd position, down 3 points compared to the previous ranking.

The list is completed by the same countries that became outsiders in the prosperity ranking from the Legatum Prosperity Index, plus the Syrian Republic and Ethiopia.

By GDP level

The level of gross domestic product (GDP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a more “solid” indicator when compared with the prosperity index.

GDP is the most important economic criterion; it is equal to the final value of everything produced in the country during the year. An authoritative source of data on GDP levels is the World Bank World Development Indicators, which receives information from national statistical agencies. The GDP indicator is usually calculated in US dollars at official exchange rates.

The GDP level is one of the main indicators in the global economy

The leader in 2017 in terms of GDP was the United States, its figure was $19,284.99 billion. China is in second place (12,263.43 billion), Japan is in third (4,513.75 billion). The top ten included Germany, Great Britain, France, India, Italy, Brazil, and Canada. Russia, with a significant increase of 134 billion, rose to 12th place, overtaking Australia.

GDP per capita

The level of GDP is compared without taking into account the population size. But there is a ranking of countries that takes both indicators into account. By dividing the resulting GDP by all residents of the country, the well-being of citizens is calculated. This means that the state can invest more in social programs, improvement, and the environment. However, one should not think that the standard of living of a particular person depends on the size of the gross product.

Luxembourg is the wealthiest country in the world

In 2017, Luxembourg holds the palm in terms of GDP per capita. This tiny country earned $108 thousand per inhabitant. Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Macau were not far behind the leader. The top ten richest countries are Qatar, USA, Ireland, Denmark, Australia.

Russia ranks only 67th in this indicator, behind Grenada, Romania, Turkey and Lebanon.

The laggards are predominantly African states.

Outsiders in the GDP per capita ranking - African countries

Inflation

The inflation rate ranking is compiled annually based on data from the International Monetary Fund and national statistical services. The top positions in it are occupied by countries where prices have increased the most. In 2017, the leader of the inflation race is Venezuela. There is an unrestrained and fantastic rise in prices; they have increased by more than 2,000 percent in a year.

In Venezuela, inflation has devalued money so much that they began to weigh it

The top five also includes Yemen, Argentina, Angola, and Nigeria. But in these countries, inflation remains at 12–20%. The Republic of Belarus is slightly behind them, its indicator is 11%.

In 2017, Russia managed to moderate its pricing policy. According to official data, inflation was only 6%. And in the world rankings the country is in 39th place.

The list is completed by prosperous and economically stable states - Spain and Switzerland. Brunei and Ecuador showed zero inflation, and life in Senegal, according to these data, even became cheaper.

Unemployment rate

The International Labor Organization defines the concept of “unemployed”. They are considered to be a person who is not working at the moment, but may and would like to work. The level for this indicator is calculated as a percentage based on the ratio of the working-age population to those looking for work. Topping the list are countries with the largest number of unemployed people. For example, in the Republic of South Africa, the leader in the 2017 ranking, 28 out of 100 people cannot find a job. In Venezuela, 26 people out of every hundred want to find a job, but cannot.

High unemployment rates are observed even in relatively prosperous countries

Russia, with an indicator of 5.5, occupies a position in the middle of the ranking. Panama, the Dominican Republic and Fiji have similar unemployment rates. And in prosperous Spain, every tenth able-bodied person cannot find a job.

Minimum unemployment rate in Thailand and Belarus

By area

The ranking, which reflects the area of ​​countries, has undergone almost no changes in recent years. There were many changes at the end of the last century. After the parade of sovereignties and the collapse of the socialist republics, the political map of the world became different. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union did not affect the primacy of the Russian Federation in the ranking of territory size. Previously it was 1/6th of the land, now it is a quarter. But Russia remains the largest country on Earth, significantly surpassing its closest neighbors in rating - China, the USA, Canada and Brazil. At the opposite end of the list is Monaco.

By population

Another ranking, characterized by consistency, compares countries by population. In this indicator, no one can overtake China and India. Despite restrictive demographic policies, several million people are added to the billion-plus population in these countries every year. By the way, the third populous power is the USA. But only 325 million live there. Russia is only ninth in this ranking, and Mexico is in 10th place.

The most populous country is China

The list is completed by tiny, small but famous countries - Monaco, Liechtenstein and San Marino - with their population of 30-40 thousand. And at the very end are the exotic and unfamiliar Palau, Nauru, and Tuvalu, where 10–20 thousand people live.

By population density

Population density is derived based on two indicators. This is the number of inhabitants of the country divided by the area of ​​the state. By performing a simple arithmetic operation, you can find out how many people live in one square kilometer. Of course, this figure will be conditional. In different regions of the same country, population density differs several times. For example, compare the European part of Russia and the Far East.

The smaller the country's territory, the more people there are per 1 square kilometer

The most populous countries in the world are Macau and Monaco, with 20 thousand people living in each square kilometer. And in Mongolia, which is at the bottom of the ranking, only 2 people share a kilometer. Russia can be classified as a sparsely populated country, its indicator is 9 people per 100 hectares.

Countries where people like to drink

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released a report on alcohol consumption in 2017. Particular emphasis was placed on the ten countries whose population drinks the maximum amount of alcohol per year. The leader of this group has changed. A year earlier, Belarus started the list, and now Lithuania, whose residents drink 16 liters of alcohol per year. Moreover, the entire population over 15 years of age is taken into account. Belarus, where 15 liters of alcohol is consumed, moved into second place. The third place was Latvia, whose residents have enough 13 liters of alcohol per year.

In 2016, Russia took 4th place in the ranking of the most drinking countries in the world

The Russian Federation, contrary to our popular opinion, is far from being the most “consuming” country. She and Poland ended up only in fourth place. The Russians slightly lowered their drinking rating, while the Poles increased it. Both drink an average of 12 liters of alcohol per year.

Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Australia are among the top ten alcohol lovers. South Korea is also in this club; it has become the drinkingiest Asian country.

South Koreans indulge in drinking alcohol

And alcoholic drinks are least popular in countries where the population professes Islam. The biggest abstainers are residents of Pakistan and Kuwait. They drink about 100 ml of alcohol per year, which is about a bottle of weak wine.

By level of corruption

Assessing the level of corruption in different countries is not easy. There are no official data on this indicator. Therefore, analysts build a rating based on the opinions of businessmen, independent specialists and ordinary people.

Statistical services do not measure the level of corruption

There is no 100% absence of corruption anywhere. At the beginning of the list are countries where there are few corrupt officials, at the end are the most “bribery-intensive” states. New Zealand, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Switzerland are recognized as the cleanest from this scourge. The Russian Federation is in 132nd place out of 175, its closest neighbors are Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The most corrupt officials are in North Korea, South Sudan and Somalia. Judging by the ratings, you can’t take a step there without a bribe.

Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are recognized as among the most corrupt countries

Happiness rating

Since 2012, at the initiative of the UN, a study of achievements aimed at creating conditions for universal happiness has been conducted. A country's position in the international happiness ranking is determined by a number of statistical criteria: the size of the gross product per capita, life expectancy, respect for rights and freedoms, stability and confidence in the future, unemployment and corruption. In addition, survey data is taken into account to determine the degree of trust and generosity of citizens. Respondents are also asked to rate their feeling of happiness according to a certain gradation.

Sociologists and statisticians have learned to measure happiness levels

The 2017 happiness ranking includes 155 countries. Norwegians are recognized as the happiest people on the planet. Denmark, last year's leader, took 2nd place. Next came Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland. Residents of the Netherlands, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Sweden were also included in the TOP 10 lucky ones. But citizens of many large and economically wealthy countries do not enjoy life so actively.

The happiness of every person does not depend on ratings

The USA took only 14th place, Germany - 16th. The British were 19th on the happiness index, Brazilians were 22nd, and the cheerful French were only 31st. Emotional Italians became 48th. Behind them are the Russians, then Belize and Japan. China is in the middle of the ranking - at 79th position.

Video: the happiest country is Norway

Lifespan

Life Expectancy Index is one of the main criteria of world statistics. It shows the socio-demographic situation in states and the world. This is not an easy age at which people die on average. Scientists consider the index as the number of years that a person of a certain generation will conventionally live if the mortality rate remains unchanged.

Average life expectancy in Russia has approached global levels

This indicator characterizes not only demographics, but also many other aspects that affect life expectancy: economic development, level of health care, degree of education and sanitary culture of the population. The prospects for the development of society depend on the increase or decrease in the life expectancy index.

The Life Expectancy Index, calculated according to the UN methodology, is derived from data from national statistical agencies. The ranking is published annually, but the report uses information from previous years. The current rating is based on data for 2016. The leaders in this indicator are Hong Kong (life expectancy index - 84), Japan (83.5), Italy (83.1), Singapore (83.0), Switzerland (83.0). The top ten countries with long-living lives are Iceland and Spain, where the index is 82.6, Australia and Israel (82.4), France - 82.2.

The Japanese are recognized long-livers; even in retirement they are friends with physical education

African countries occupy the lower positions on the list. There, life expectancy ranges from 55 to 49 years.

Russia has been consistently improving its position in the rankings lately. Now it is in 116th place with an index of 70.1.

The world average life expectancy is 71 years

But in the ranking of average life expectancy presented by the World Health Organization (WHO), Russians rose even higher, to 110th position, approaching the global figure. And the group of ten leading countries, according to WHO, looks a little different. Japan takes first place. And instead of Hong Kong and Singapore - Germany and Sweden. But the company of outsiders looks almost the same.

By quality of roads

The report prepared for the World Economic Forum provides a ranking of countries assessing the quality of roads in 2017. The list includes 138 states. It is opened by the roads of the United Arab Emirates, second place went to the highways of Singapore, and third place to Hong Kong. In the top ten are the autobahns of the Netherlands, Japan, France, Switzerland, Austria, Portugal, and Denmark. The USA and Germany fell slightly short of the leading positions, they are in 13th and 16th positions, respectively.

Japanese highways are some of the best in the world

The former Soviet republics - Lithuania, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia - are in the middle of the ranking, they are included in the top hundred. Kazakhstan is already beyond its borders. And Russian off-road conditions, according to experts, are not the worst, but close to it. Russian broken tracts, according to experts, are worthy of 123 places out of 138.

Motorists in Moldova and Ukraine avoid even more potholes and potholes; they took 132 and 133 places. And the roads in Madagascar are very bad, only a little better in the Congo. These countries are located on the final lines of the road rating.

Madagascar has the worst roads in the world

By gold and foreign exchange reserves

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released fresh information on international reserves. This rating reflects the value of government assets in securities, currency and gold (bars and coins). The size of the gold and foreign exchange reserve is usually determined in American dollars.

The largest gold and foreign exchange reserves are concentrated in China

According to data for May 2017, the People's Republic of China has the largest reserve in the world; its capital was estimated at $3,344.7 billion. Japan has 1318.3 billion. Switzerland has accumulated 765.0 billion, Saudi Arabia - 514. Taiwan closes the top five richest countries, its reserve is 433.0 billion. Russia with a capital of 405.1 occupies 7th position in the ranking, between Hong Kong and South Korea. India closes the top ten richest countries.

The USA is only in 21st position. The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the European Union countries are often assessed in aggregate. The united Europe has $745.9 billion in its treasury. And the most prosperous country is Germany.

Human Development Index

The Human Development Index is a multi-component indicator developed by UN specialists in 1990. According to researchers, it most fully shows the quality of life in different countries and the dynamics of development of their citizens. The index takes into account the well-being of society, respect for human rights and social justice. The calculation is carried out in three directions:

• health and life expectancy;
• accessibility of education;
• gross national income and purchasing power.

The basis is taken from official data provided by government departments. To clarify the human potential index, new criteria are being introduced. For example, indices of gender inequality and multidimensional poverty.

Countries are ranked according to the Human Development Index and then divided into 4 groups according to the value of the indicator. The latest ranking was compiled in 2016 and includes 190 states and territories.

There are 49 countries in the group with the highest human development index. Norway opens the ranking, with Australia, Switzerland, Denmark and the Netherlands also in the top five. The USA is in 8th place. In the same group, almost all members of the European Union, including the Baltic trio, come from the USSR.

Norway is not only the happiest country, it also received the highest score in human development

The second group is countries with a high level of human potential. The first position is occupied by Russia and Belarus. There are also some former Soviet republics, China, Bulgaria, Romania, Türkiye.

In the third group are states with an average index. At the top of the list are Botswana, Moldova, Egypt, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan. In the same company are India, Honduras, Vietnam, Cambodia and Syria.

Pakistan scores lowest in human development rankings because its government does little to improve the lives of children in the country.

The group with the lowest human potential index is predominantly composed of African countries, as well as Pakistan, Nepal and Afghanistan.

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In other words, we are faced with another attempt to divide world powers into good and bad, or, more precisely, into “decent” and “indecent.” You can’t say it any other way, because we are talking about reputation, neither more nor less. How can this rating influence the country’s investment reputation and how do investors themselves perceive it?

For investors: how is monitoring carried out?

The rating of the reputation of various countries, explain analysts from the US and Canada at the Masterforex-V Academy of Forex and Exchange Trading, is compiled based on a public opinion poll of citizens of 50 countries. During the latest study, 42 thousand people were surveyed.
■ what is taken into account? Respondents had to answer questions about which countries inspire trust, respect, admiration, good feelings, etc. In addition, about 16 other different factors were taken into account, for example, high quality of life, a safe place to live, increased attention to caring for the environment, friendly people, etc. That is, we were talking exclusively about subjective perception.
■ main criteria. However, there were also defining criteria in such a difficult choice: there were only three of them. These are a growing and developing economy, a good environment and an effective government.

Latest rating:
1. The published list contains only 50 countries.
2. First place is occupied by Canada, second by Sweden, third by Australia. The top ten “by reputation” also included Switzerland, New Zealand, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Austria and the Netherlands.
3. Germany took 11th position, Japan - 12th, Italy - 14th, Spain - 16th. Singapore completed the second top ten, and Greece opened the third. The USA came in 23rd place in the ranking. 26th place went to Poland.
4. Ukraine was in 40th place in the ranking, its reputation lost one point to Bolivia’s reputation. Israel took 41st place, China 43rd, and Russia received 45th place.
5. The last lines of the ranking are, respectively, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan.

According to the Masterforex-V Academy, first of all, the question arises: why are there only 50 countries? After all, there are more than 200 of them in the world. What kind of objectivity of the rating can we talk about with such a sample? If we are presented with the first (!) fifty countries from the world list, that is, the most popular ones, then Pakistan has nothing to worry about. To be in the top fifty “by reputation” in the world is a great honor. And Iran should generally consider its result a historic victory. But the whole question is that they are presented as leaders of the anti-rating. What does it mean?
■ There are 50 countries in Europe alone. And it is quite obvious that not all of them were taken into account. Otherwise, where could Iraq, for example, even appear in the reputation ranking?
■ evaluation criteria. Perhaps citizens from 50 countries were given the opportunity to name only one, their favorite state. But then it is not clear where the figures with tenths came from. Canada won with a score of 74.8 points, Sweden (74.7), Australia (74.3), Switzerland (74.2) and New Zealand (73.1). It is absolutely clear that all indicators by country were summed up.
■ survey of respondents. In this case, the following question arises: how can an ordinary respondent know about such subtleties of life in another power, such as a developing economy, a good environment or an effective government? Most people are completely incompetent in such matters. They can only reason in categories: “I heard,” “Everyone knows,” “It seems to me.”
■ controversial assessments of countries. It is even more incomprehensible how Greece could end up in 21st place with a completely destroyed economy and a completely ineffective government? Obviously just because of the environment. But then why did Russia and China, which have both their economy and government in order, end up at the bottom of the list - right before Iraq?

And one more point regarding national likes and dislikes, a set of prejudices, stereotypes and other historical and cultural associations. In general, everything that is commonly called mentality. After all, it is not difficult to assume that when asked whether one likes or dislikes this or that country, a person will not always answer thoughtfully. A Muslim will never damage the reputation of the country of his fellow believers, a Catholic will also speak out in favor of a Catholic country, a person from the so-called. The “Western world” will support its civilization. In this case, there is absolutely no need to talk about impartiality.

Investment activity in Russia decreased in 2016, although at a much slower pace compared to the previous two years. Based on the results of three quarters of 2016, the volume of investments in fixed capital amounted to 97.7% of the level of the same period of the previous year. In 2017, the trend will change; we expect an increase in investment activity for the first time in three years. However, the dynamics at the level of individual regions are very different: from a more than two-fold drop in investment in Kalmykia to a 77% increase in the Tyumen region. Regional disparities are increasing. What defines them?

Of course, relations with the federal center, social and political conditions, natural resources - all this affects the investment climate, investment dynamics and the level of economic development. However, competition for investors among Russian regions is also a major development factor. Regions that have failed to show an improvement in the investment climate actually demonstrate a decline in living standards, incomes, and levels of economic development.

Every year, several ratings of investment attractiveness of Russian regions are compiled (ASI, NRA, Expert RA). Despite differences in methodologies, the lists of leaders of the three ratings largely overlap. In particular, Moscow, Tatarstan and the Belgorod region are among the leaders in all three ratings. Regions that are truly successful in terms of the investment climate occupy high positions regardless of what indicators are used in the ranking. In the NRA ranking at the end of 2016, 18 regions worsened their ranking positions over the year, and 9 regions improved. Moreover, the most interesting thing is that almost all the regions whose ratings were increased are in the top half of the rating list, while the downgrade of ratings occurred mainly in the lower part of the list. Thus, the best regions continue to increase their investment attractiveness (and therefore the basis for economic development), while outsiders “fail” more, the differentiation of regions in terms of investment attractiveness increases, and the gap between successful and lagging regions becomes even larger.

However, there are also successful examples of “take-offs”. The most successful moves in the ranking were made by Yakutia, Sverdlovsk and Tomsk regions: from the category of “regions with average investment attractiveness” to the category of “regions with high investment attractiveness”. For Yakutia, this is a real breakthrough (the region is included in the group of leaders for the first time). The most important factor in increasing the investment attractiveness of Yakutia is the development of new oil and gas fields and the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, but positive changes have also affected infrastructure and administration - something that is important not only for the largest businesses.

Shifts also occurred at the bottom of the rankings. A number of regions of the Volga region and central Russia have been added to the republics of the North Caucasus and Siberia, which traditionally fall into this category and are critically dependent on government investments and transfers from the federal budget. In particular, the ratings of Mordovia, Mari El, Ivanovo, Kostroma and Kirov regions were lowered. In all of these regions, the macroeconomic situation remains unfavorable: investments are falling or not growing, infrastructural and institutional development lags behind the Russian average, and regional budget revenues do not cover expenses. In addition, the factors that had a negative impact on the rating positions of the Kirov region also included socio-political risks that increased against the backdrop of the corruption scandal.

Among the regions with a “high level of investment attractiveness” there are still the largest megacities (Moscow, St. Petersburg), adjacent regions (Moscow, Leningrad), as well as regions with significant resource potential (Tyumen, Tomsk and Sakhalin regions). In addition, regions with a favorable investment climate, implying the most comfortable institutional conditions for investors (Tatarstan, Kaluga and Belgorod regions) remain on the list of leaders in the rating.

A comfortable business environment is not the only advantage of these regions, however, it is the effective work of the authorities of these regions to reduce administrative barriers and support investors that is a unique offer for investors, which many other regions lack. There are still investors in Russia, only there are fewer of them, and therefore competition between regions for investment is becoming tougher, and it is impossible to win this competition without active actions by regional administrations.

There is a widespread opinion that the regions’ active attraction of borrowed funds is always an indicator of an unfavorable situation. Of course, an excessive debt load is risky and from a certain level begins to reduce the assessment of the investment climate. There are some particularly distinguished regions where the public debt amounts to 100% of the budget’s own revenues, which exceeds the limit set forth in Article 107 of the current Budget Code of the Russian Federation: Trans-Baikal Territory, Krasnodar Territory, Pskov Region, Mari El, Mordovia, Khakassia and Smolensk Region.

On the other hand, debt for regions is the same development mechanism as for business; they must be invested in development with maximum efficiency. Based on this logic, the pride of some regions - a radically low level of debt (with low economic indicators) - is rather a sign of the inability to develop using borrowed funds. Naturally, regions have different capabilities for servicing debt, but the extremely low level of debt indicates, first of all, that these regions are not trying to take advantage of this financial mechanism for their economic growth. The level of debt of regions can vary several dozen times. For example, the volume of debt of the Altai Territory is almost 100 times less than the debt of the Krasnodar Territory, while the gross regional product per capita in the Krasnodar Territory is almost twice as high as in the Altai Territory, and the gap is growing.

The opportunity to move from economic stagnation and population decline to growth is in most cases in the hands of local leaders, from their desire and ability to create good conditions for investment and invest in their region themselves. Improving the infrastructure for doing business, reducing administrative barriers - all this can be complemented by public-private partnerships, launching clusters with government investments and effective work with borrowed funds.

Recently, the US administration has become interested in classifying and distributing foreign countries into various lists and groups. One can recall the sudden appearance on the political map of the world of certain “rogue states”, the stringing of the three most malicious “rogue states” on the “axis of evil” (which subsequently passed through several more countries) and the mysterious formation called the “anti-Iraq coalition”, on behalf of which the United States and Great Britain captured one of the countries of this very “axis”.

Last week, the coordinator of the US State Department's Office of Reconstruction and Stabilization, Carlos Pascual, announced the appearance of another similar list - a list of countries of "greatest instability and risk."

Pascual explained that from now on, US intelligence services will update the list of 25 states every six months, the situation in which, according to Washington, may require US intervention.

The head of the Department of Reconstruction and Stabilization did not specify exactly how such an intervention would be carried out, noting only that preventing conflicts and restoring government structures destroyed during hostilities is “one of the main foreign policy challenges” for the United States. This makes us think about the fate of the states included in the “Pascual List”.

Portable Administration

The US State Department's Office of Reconstruction and Stabilization was created in August 2004. Its functions include monitoring conflict and post-conflict situations in foreign countries in order to, using peaceful means of intervention in the internal affairs of these countries, keep them from clashes and civil unrest, while pushing them towards peace, democracy and market economies. In addition, the department plays the role of intermediary between the United States, its allies, other countries in the region in which American operations take place, as well as the EU, the UN and other international organizations.

In fact, the task of the Reconstruction and Stabilization Department is to deploy, in an extremely short time, competent structures of the occupation administration in any “hot spot” where the United States will conduct future military operations.

It must be admitted that the need for such an organization has been brewing in the United States for a long time. One has only to remember the chaotic actions of the hastily created civilian administration in Iraq, which was unable to provide reliable support for the coalition troops and, in the end, with relief, handed over to the no less hastily created local government. Or the hastily organized democratic government of Afghanistan, which still prefers not to appear outside of Kabul.

Apparently, ideally, the Department of Reconstruction and Stabilization should become the force that could take control of the country left without “native” leadership, provide American troops with everything they need, relieving them of the need to be distracted from their immediate responsibilities, and begin training local personnel to create a government structure that would suit Washington.

From this idea of ​​the role of the Department of Reconstruction and Stabilization of the US State Department, the need for the “Pascual List” logically follows. In order to be able to quickly establish effective management of a devastated country, it would be nice to know in advance when and which country will need to be governed.

That is why, in addition to restoring already lost states, the department must predict which states in the near future have a chance to experience all the delights of US humanitarian military operations, as well as planning the most reasonable and quickest way to pacify them.

The right person in the right place

In light of all of the above, the track record of Carlos Pascual himself is very interesting, if not alarming. If we assume that it is not by chance that he was appointed coordinator of the Department of Reconstruction and Stabilization of the State Department, then it becomes quite obvious which part of the world the United States is going to reconstruct and stabilize first.

From 1992 until his appointment as head of the department in 2004, Pascual's career was inextricably linked with the countries of Eastern Europe, and more specifically with the countries of the former USSR.

Over the past 12 years, Pascual managed to participate in the Group for Work with the Newly Independent States, the Agency for International Development, the National Security Agency, and served as a special adviser to the president, US Ambassador to Ukraine and coordinator of American assistance programs in Europe and Eurasia. Everywhere his main area of ​​interest remained the countries of the former USSR, primarily Russia and Ukraine. It can be assumed that he will not change his habits and head the Department of Reconstruction and Stabilization.

Conveyor democratization

To all who live under tyranny and hopelessness, know that the United States remembers your oppression and will not forgive your oppressors. When you rise to fight for your freedom, we will rise with you.

George W. Bush, inauguration speech, January 2005

As a matter of fact, the Office of Reconstruction and Stabilization has become another useful tool in the US foreign policy “democratization kit”. He will form an ideal tandem with the Office of Democracy and Transition to Democracy, which will be created if US congressmen approve the Democracy Advancement Act, introduced in early March.

As history shows, US efforts to introduce democracy usually lead to acts of civil disobedience, uprisings, civil wars and other phenomena that, in fact, make the situation in the country “unstable and risky.”

This, in turn, automatically includes such a country on the list of states that need US assistance - and then the Reconstruction and Stabilization Department comes into play.

Why is Luxembourg a world champion in labor productivity and where is Russia in the ranking?

The leader in productivity in the world is a dwarf state in the center of Europe, Luxembourg. It is followed by oil and gas-rich Qatar and Asia's gambling capital, China's Special Administrative Region of Macau. Growth points are located in the North of Europe, Africa and Asia. What else do international productivity statistics tell us?

Leaders and statistics

Why is Luxembourg, a state with an area of ​​approximately 2500 square meters. km with a population of about 600,000 people, ahead of, for example, the USA, Japan and Germany, which are considered more technologically developed?

There is a favorable business regime here, it is a European tax haven and one of the financial centers of Europe. Thanks to all this, international companies are registered here - for example, the headquarters of Skype and representative offices of Goodyear and DuPont. The country has developed banking and financial services, and has a metallurgical industry.

Since 1991, labor productivity here has increased by approximately 1.5 times. But statistics are deceiving.

“The history of Luxembourg is the history of the offshore economy. Considering the small number of residents and the large number of companies that have their representative offices there, and therefore record part of their profits there, the overall result is quite high,” says Vitaly Kazakov, director of the Energy Economics program at the Russian School of Economics. This model of increasing labor productivity cannot be applied to countries with a larger population.

The case of Qatar is similar, but here the high level of labor productivity is explained by the fact that the country is rich in natural resources and has a population of only 2.5 million people. It is also difficult to replicate such a result, says Kazakov.

“Given that Luxembourg's population is small and the volume of registered profits is solid, productivity is high. But if you follow this logic, then Qatar is also a country with high labor productivity, although the local population there does not work [living on oil rent],” says Evgeny Itsakov, associate professor of the Department of Management and Entrepreneurship of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

Macau's economy has grown while tourist appetites have grown, especially from mainland China: of the 31 million tourists there last year, 28 million came from mainland China. But over the past few years, tourists have been spending less, both in and out of casinos. The decline in revenue from the Macau gambling industry began in 2014 (-2.6%), in 2015 it dropped by 34%. As a result, after 2013, labor productivity here has been falling.

If we rely on World Bank (WB) data, the level of labor productivity in China itself has increased 8.5 times since 1991. In general, the countries of Southeast Asia and the Pacific region in terms of labor productivity have increased almost 3 times.

Among the leaders in productivity in Russia are export regions with a high share of extractive industries, as well as Moscow and St. Petersburg, said Nadezhda Mikheeva, deputy chairwoman of the Council for the Study of Productive Forces, at a conference at the Higher School of Economics in 2015. In general, the level of labor productivity in Russia is heterogeneous – the difference between regions reaches 6 times, she calculated after analyzing Rosstat data for 79 regions on GRP, employment and capital for 2005–2012.
Since 2003, according to Rosstat, labor productivity in different sectors of the Russian economy has grown at different rates. The peak of growth in mining occurred in 2009 (+8.5% compared to the previous year), in construction - in 2006 (+15.8%), and in the manufacturing industry - in 2004 (the industry showed almost 10% growth). But at the end of 2015, statistics show a decrease in the productivity index in almost all industries. In mining, it decreased by 1.6%, in the manufacturing industry - by almost 3%.
Rosstat data allows us to compare labor productivity levels in natural monopoly industries. The highest level of labor productivity in 2015 was in the industry “Transportation of oil and petroleum products via main pipelines”, and the minimum in the industry “Public postal services”: 17,400 rubles. per person versus 388 rub.

Fast growing undeveloped

Interestingly, the least developed countries – Equatorial Guinea and Myanmar – are demonstrating rapid growth in labor productivity. Guinea, for example, has a difference between GDP per person employed in 1991 and 2016. is 26 times. No other country on the list showed such growth. And in Myanmar, efficiency increased 12 times (all data - WB).

Equatorial Guinea is named by the authors of the Index of Economic Freedom from The Wall Street Journal and the Heritage Foundation research center as one of the fastest growing economies in Africa and the third largest oil producer in the sub-Saharan continent. But Guinea's economy is almost entirely dependent on oil - the sector accounts for almost 80% of GDP. Thanks to rising oil prices, per capita GDP also grew (and from a low base). Therefore, growth in this country can hardly be called an economic miracle, which became possible thanks to an improvement in the business climate or technological development. Moreover, since 2008, productivity began to fall. Experts from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) write: this indicates the country’s vulnerability to the global situation in the commodity sector.

Myanmar has a different story. According to 2014 UNCTAD data, it was listed as one of the least developed Asian countries with the fastest productivity growth since the 1990s. Explosive growth was typical for exporters of manufacturing products and countries with a mixed export structure. What explains this growth? In Myanmar, the government has been implementing major reforms since 2011. The authorities, among other things, allowed foreigners to invest in the country. Since 2011, a sharp increase in foreign direct investment and productivity (in terms of GDP per worker) began. In 2015, the Myanmar authorities reported receiving $8 billion in investments, an increase of 2 times compared to 2014. This year, the authorities are counting on another $6 billion. In April of this year, the authorities approved projects that will create about 10,000 new jobs.

An outsider in terms of labor productivity is Somalia. The gap with Luxembourg is 174 times. The explanation is simple: there has been a civil war in the country for many years and there are no opportunities for the development of industry and human capital.

The developed countries

Among OECD countries, Sweden ranked 1st in terms of growth rates in 2015 - plus 2.1%. And here we are talking about productivity, which takes into account the level of education and technological development. 2nd and 3rd places are occupied by Japan (1.22%) and New Zealand (1.19%).

In the mid-2000s, developed countries entered a period of sharp slowdown in productivity growth. In the United States, for example, the annual growth rate of total factor productivity from 2005 to 2015 averaged 0.6%. In the previous decade they were 1.8%. In catching up countries, productivity growth rates have also slowed down.

What is the reason? There is debate in scientific circles. There is no generally accepted explanation for the slowdown, says Rostislav Kapelyushnikov, deputy director of the Center for Labor Research at the Higher School of Economics. “One of the most plausible is that by this point the potential of the computer revolution was largely exhausted. Since then, we have not seen technological breakthroughs that, in terms of their impact on productivity and, more broadly, on people’s way of life, would be comparable to the impact of information and communication technologies,” he believes.

Some scientists suggest that it is due to the negative impact on productivity of the 2008-2009 recession. But Kapelyushnikov, referring to the analysis, calls this explanation unconvincing.

What could become the new driver of growth after the era of the computer revolution? Techno-optimists believe that the future lies in robotization, digitalization, the creation of artificial intelligence, and the use of unmanned vehicles. “But so far all this is nothing more than good wishes, since no signs of accelerating the growth of total factor productivity are still visible anywhere,” Kapelyushnikov is skeptical.

Place of Russia

Norilsk Nickel photo service

What is the situation with labor productivity in Russia? If we rank countries by productivity level using data from the International Labor Organization, Russia would be in 43rd place out of just over 100 countries. OECD data says: labor productivity grew from 2000 to 2008, then growth resumed in 2010 and lasted until 2014. But since then the indicator has only declined.

The drop coincides with the negative forecast of Renaissance Capital analysts, who in 2012 predicted that Russia would soon fall into the middle-income trap. What it is? This phenomenon is typical for rapidly developing countries: having reached a high level of income, they begin to lose competition to countries with comparable labor costs, but developed technologies and countries with cheap labor and production.

Economists Barry Eichengreen, Dong Hyun Park and Kwang Ho wrote about the trap in 2011. They drew a pattern for rapidly developing countries. Growth slows down after the population's income reaches $16,700 per person at average world prices in 2005. As a result, in 2014, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev admitted: Russia has fallen into this trap. And without a sharp increase in investment in production, there will no longer be high growth rates.

The productivity factor has weakened “as a driving force” of economic growth in Russia, the authors of the latest World Bank Doing Business rating published in October 2016 concluded, after analyzing productivity trends at the company level. What is the reason? Russian companies are relatively unsuccessful in their innovative activities and only a tenth report that they are engaged in technological innovation, write WB experts. For comparison: in OECD countries there are 30–40% of such companies. In addition, businessmen cite the lack of competencies among employees as an important obstacle to doing business.

What's stopping you? At the investment forum in Sochi in February, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Vasily Osmakov called costs due to excessive administration, for example, in the field of customs regulation, one of the main limiting factors in the growth of labor productivity. The issues that come to the fore for entrepreneurs are not so much attracting investment, but rather improving the quality of management, introducing lean manufacturing technologies and the need to reduce indirect costs due to administrative barriers.

In Russia, it is necessary to increase labor productivity through increased automation, and this is possible if there is the will of the manager to invest in the company’s capital, Itsakov from RANEPA is sure. “When the idea that investing in an enterprise now will make it possible to obtain much more profit in the future (including through staff reductions) than today’s reduction in workers’ salaries becomes quite widespread in our manufacturing sector, Russia will have a chance for another leap in development,” he believes. &

Text: Anna Alexandrova