Demographic problems and their significance in the country's economy. Demographic problem. Analytical information on the discipline

The essence of the demographic problem consists in the extremely rapid and uneven growth of the Earth's population since the second half of the 20th century.

At the beginning of the agricultural revolution, 10,000 BC, 10 million people lived on our planet, and at the beginning of the new era -100 - 250 million.

In 1830, the world's population reached 1 billion, in 1930 -2 billion, i.e. it took 100 years to double the population. The Earth's population reached 3 billion already in 1960, 4 billion lived on Earth in 1990, 2003 -6.1 billion.

According to UN experts, on July 17, 1999, at 8:45 GMT, the earth's six billionth inhabitant was born in Sarajevo.

Over the last millennium, the world's population has increased 18 times. The first doubling took 600 years, the second 230, the third 100, and the last 38 years.

From 1975 to 1985, the population increased by 77 million annually, i.e. on average by 1.8%, in developed countries - by 0.5%, in developing countries - by 2.1%, and in Africa - 3%. Such growth rates have never been observed before in human history. In 1999, more than half of Earthlings were under 25 years old.

Acceleration of the growth rate of the world population in the second half of the 20th century. often call demographic explosion.

The population explosion was caused by economic growth, the liberation of third world countries, improved medical care after World War II, illiteracy of the population, especially women, and the lack of social security for the elderly in developing countries. Under these conditions, children (and their work) are the life support of their parents. Young children provide physical assistance to mothers in their hard housework and to fathers in farming. Due to the lack of social (pension) security, 2-3 adult sons must support elderly parents. It's difficult to do this alone. And in order for 2 - 3 men to be born in a family, the spouses must have at least 4 - 6 children. High infant mortality in the absence of necessary medical care has also traditionally been a reason contributing to high birth rates.

Population growth among countries and regions is extremely uneven. Less developed countries account for 95% of the world's population growth. For example, in Kenya, the birth rate (the number of children born per 1,000 population, divided by 1,000 and multiplied by 100) rose to 5.8% and approached the biologically possible limit. At the same time, the birth rate in Germany, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland and a number of other countries is less than 1.2%.

Every second the population increases by 3 people. In the second half of the 90s, the increase was 80 million per year (1.4%).

The “demographic explosion” and uneven population growth leads to an exacerbation of a number of other problems:

increasing load on the environment (factor of “demographic pressure”);

ethnic problems;

refugee problem;

the problem of urbanization, etc.

Demographic pressure complicates the food and environmental situation. The development of a modern economy requires territorial and fuel and raw materials resources. The severity of the problems is due not so much to the limited resources as to the impact of the nature of their use on the state of the environment.

The increasing population of the poorest countries has begun to have an irreversible impact on the environment. In the 1990s, changes reached critical proportions. They include the continuous growth of cities, degradation of land and water resources, intensive deforestation, and the development of the greenhouse effect. Decisive action is needed to limit population growth, fight poverty and protect nature.

Ethnic and refugee issues caused by the disproportion of population growth in developing countries and the ability to meet their social needs. For example, rapid population growth does not allow stabilizing the problem of unemployment and makes it difficult to solve problems of education, health care, social security and others. In other words, any socio-economic problem also includes a demographic one.

Let us dwell on one more aspect of the demographic problem. There is an opinion that, along with the “demographic explosion” of previous decades, the so-called "urban explosion"(mainly as a result of accelerated and disorderly urbanization in developing countries).

Cities are the largest centers of consumption of all natural resources - land, energy, food. The shortage of energy, raw materials and especially high-quality water is becoming increasingly painful in most major cities of the world. Urbanization is not only the growth of the urban population and the increasing role of cities in all spheres of society, but also the process of increasing influence on nature. Occupying 1% of the inhabited land mass, urbanized areas concentrate almost 50% of the world's population. Cities produce 4/5 of all products, and they are “responsible” for 4/5 of air pollution.

In Third World countries, the share of the urban population doubled between 1980 and 2000. Landlessness and lack of job opportunities in rural areas are pushing millions of unskilled people into the cities. The explosive growth of urban population is accompanied by the formation of slum areas characterized by unsanitary living conditions. This type of urbanization is called " slum" or "false urbanization". This process gives rise to very serious problems: housing, sanitary and hygienic, energy, providing cities with water, transport, environmental pollution, etc.

Trends in the development of the demographic situation in the world.

Population growth trends in the 21st century are extremely important for the future of the Earth. and the possibility of stabilizing numbers. Forecasts are published every year, and in 1990 it was assumed that in 2000 there would be 6.25 billion people living on Earth, in 2025 - 8.5 billion, in 2100 - 11.3 billion (1988 forecast .).

From 1990 to 2025, the population of economically developed and developing countries will be significantly redistributed.

If in 1950 the share of the population of the economically developed countries of the north, Europe, North America, the former USSR, Japan, as well as Australia and New Zealand (20 million people) was 1.2 billion people (32% of the total population), then in 2025 The population of these countries will be 1.35 billion people (16% of the total population). Population decline is expected in Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Austria, Belgium, and Switzerland. The population in Germany will decrease especially sharply (from 77 million in 1990 to 70 million in 2025).

A completely different picture will be observed in the overpopulated south (Asia, Africa, Latin America), where the population will increase from 4 billion in 1990 to 7.1 billion in 2025. The population of Africa will increase sharply: from 646 million in 1990 to 1581 million in 2025. The population of Asia will increase significantly, where 57% of the world's population will live. The population of India in 2025 will approach 1.5 billion people (in 1999 - 1 billion), the same number will live in China, and nearby, in little Japan, 126 million people will live. The birth rate in Japan is decreasing from year to year, which leads to an increase in the number of elderly people, a decrease in the working part of the population, as well as to the selfish tendencies of the only child in the family.

According to 1999 estimates, in 2050 the world's population will be 9 billion people, 1.2 billion will live in industrialized countries, 1.53 billion in India, 345 million in Pakistan (now 156 million), and in Nigeria - 244 million (now 112 million), in Japan - 105 million people (now 126 million), in another 30 countries there will be a decrease in population.

In 1997, Bangladesh was the country with the highest population density in the world - over 764 people per 1 km 2. In 2025, the population density in this country will more than double and exceed 1,500 people per 1 km 2. For comparison, we present the population density indicators of a number of other countries in the world: the Netherlands - 359, Japan - 331, Belgium - 326, Great Britain - 236, Germany - 226, China - 126, USA - 27, Russia - 10. However, it should be noted that more than half The territory of Russia is located in the permafrost zone (on average in the world - 40 people per 1 km 2).

Will continue urban growth . In recent decades, urban population growth rates in developing countries have exceeded the rate of natural population growth. In 2000, half of humanity lived in cities. The largest cities in the world in 1994 were Tokyo (Japan, 26.5 million people), New York (USA, 16.3 million), Sao Paulo (Brazil, 16.1 million), Mexico City (Mexico, 15.5 million), Shanghai (China, 14.7 million), Bombay (India, 14.5 million), Los Angeles (USA, 12.2 million), Beijing (China, 12.0 million), Kolkata (India, 11 .5 million), Seoul (South Korea, 11.5 million).

The population density in cities is very high: in Moscow - 9 thousand people per 1 km 2, in New York - 10 thousand, in Paris - 12 thousand, in Tokyo - 14 thousand.

At the same time, in the cities of developing countries, the number of houses without clean drinking water and sanitation, as well as the number of camps and slums, is increasing.

More will happen population aging . In 1996, the World Health Organization published a report stating that the number of people of retirement age would increase by 88% over the next 25 years, creating an imbalance in the planet's labor force. The working population will have to work much more in order to pay taxes to pension funds. If now two workers support one pensioner, then by 2025 one worker will have to support two pensioners. By 2025, every tenth person in the world will be over 66 years of age. The elderly population of the planet will reach 800 million people (in 1998 - 390 million people).

The share of the population in older age groups will increase. In 1997, in economically developed countries, the number of people aged 60-65 years reached 17% of the total population. By 2025, they will make up more than a quarter of the total population of developed countries, which is projected to reach 1.352 billion people. This will cause significant increases in health and social care costs. The share of people over 65 years of age (retirement age abroad) will increase from 12% to 15% (about 915 million people) in 2050.

Ways to solve the demographic problem

In order to solve the demographic problem, the UN adopted the World Population Plan of Action. At the same time, progressive forces proceed from the fact that family planning programs can help improve population reproduction. But demographic policy alone is not enough. It must be accompanied by an improvement in the economic and social living conditions of people.

The International Forum on Population in the 21st Century, held in Amsterdam in November 1989, identified a number of population goals for the end of the 20th century, including a universal reduction in fertility rates, a reduction in early marriage and teenage pregnancy, increased use of contraception, and as well as a wide range of other activities to develop population control programs and activities in other areas affecting the interests of the population.

The policy of birth control was carried out most powerfully and purposefully, although with great excesses, in China.

From 1949 to 1982, China doubled its population, giving the planet about one in five of its inhabitants. In 1995, China had a population of 1,211 million. With 20% of the world's population, China has 7% of arable land, i.e. China has 8 times less arable land per capita than the United States. According to Chinese scientists, the country’s agriculture, even with large investments, can feed a maximum of 1.6 billion people, and the country’s population will approach this milestone by 2030.

Energy resources and water supplies cannot keep pace with population growth: 236 major cities in China are already experiencing water shortages. Economic activity with traditional disregard for the environment threatens to almost double the pollution of already muddy water bodies. Soil erosion will increase by a quarter, and the area of ​​deserts will increase by 40%.

Against this background, we can explain the rigidity and even cruelty of the all-China campaign to limit the birth rate, which began in 1970. The family planning policy is formulated in the provision: “One child in the family and encouragement of late marriages.” This applies to every urban indigenous Han family (94% of the population). At the birth of a second child, the father pays a fine equal to three of his monthly salaries and may lose his job. Citizens living in rural areas are allowed to have a second child if the first birth is a girl. This is due to the Confucian tradition, according to which only a boy is a full-fledged heir and continuer of the family. Sometimes parents abandoned or killed their first-born female child in order to have a chance to “correct” their mistake. The birth control campaign, despite all its costs, yielded results in purely arithmetic terms. From 1970 to 2000, 440 million people were unborn in the country. However, in 2001, China's population reached 1280 million people.

The birth control policy pursued by the UN and regional governments requires increasing the literacy of the population, primarily women. Literacy helps limit birth rates. Women make up 2/3 of illiterate adults in developing countries. In 1985, 51% of women and 72% of men in developing countries could read, and 39% of women with secondary education in Arab countries, 33% in Asia overall, 21% in Africa, and 55% in Latin America.

According to a study conducted in Mexico in 1975, landless peasant families have an average of 4.4 children, and the mothers are mostly illiterate (if a woman has completed primary school, the average number of children in such a family is 2.7 children).

The experience of different countries shows that if a woman’s education lasts more than 7 years, i.e. If she receives secondary education, she has on average 2.2 fewer children than those who did not attend school. The age at marriage plays an important role in reducing the birth rate. Women without education get married much earlier. Therefore, in order to reduce the growth rate of the world's population, it is necessary to teach more than 600 million illiterate women to read, as well as to educate children who may end up outside of school.

In China this is called an inverted pyramid. Historically, families here formed an imaginary pyramid of three children, two parents, and one surviving grandparent, as life expectancy in the country was low. However, thanks to the “one child” policy, the pyramid has long been inverted. In some cities across the country, families look completely different: three grandparents, two parents, and only one child. And this turned out to be not only a demographic problem - and this problem is not unique to the Middle Kingdom.

Population aging for objective reasons

The oppressive dictates of the state have led China to an extreme example of population aging, with a sharp increase in the proportion of people aged 65 years and older. However, this phenomenon is observed everywhere today to one degree or another. Once a society begins to prosper, people live longer. And they no longer need children just because in old age someone needs to take care of them. New features of society appear - having become more prosperous, people grow more selfish and there are fewer of them.

Such demographic trends occur in all societies, regardless of their religious or cultural norms. And even in the Middle East, where to this day one of the highest birth rates, its first signs can be seen today. For English-speaking and European countries, the situation is further aggravated by the post-war so-called “baby boom”, a surge in birth rates, which has now led to a gigantic demographic bulge with a huge number of people of pre-retirement or retirement age.

Complete disadvantages

It would seem like a triumph of human development. But no - older people need to be supported more, they spend less, although, as a rule, this group of the population is richer than young people. However, they pose more problems for public policy and trade.

Well, for finance, of course, this is a disadvantage - costs for healthcare and pensions, and during the demographic crisis this is accompanied by a decrease in the number of working-age population, that is, taxpayers. For commerce, this can be both a curse and a source of new opportunities.

Thus, according to European analysts, the purchasing power of the baby boomer generation will be $15 trillion by 2020. This is a huge and largely untapped market for analysts, even outside the health and social care sector. Today's people over 65 years of age are active and willing to spend a lot of money. Therefore, the problem of business is to get this money.

Those who don't want to spend money

And this is a real problem, a reluctance to consume, although there is such a possibility. Try telling your aging father that he needs a new suit, complains one British businessman. In response, most likely, you will hear that there is no point in this, because he will die soon anyway. These are the trends - as people age, they work less and spend less.

In its most extreme form, the demographic problem manifested itself in Japan, where it was aggravated by the process. Yes, there are many reasons for Japan's economic malaise, but poor fertility is high on the list. To some extent, the Land of the Rising Sun has become a victim of its own success - the connection between a rapidly aging population that prefers to save rather than spend, and the problem of lack of domestic demand is obvious. Something similar awaits Germany and most of Europe.

Tragedy or prospects?

The worst thing is that the actions taken by governments do not have much effect. In addition, many of the boomer generation are approaching retirement age without savings, but with debts. In some places they tried to solve everything by abolishing the retirement age or increasing it, but this only emphasized the issues that arose.

And it turns out that demography has become an incomprehensible social problem that business cannot yet solve. Commerce is good, but we need to develop new markets. And more and more businessmen are coming to the conclusion that rich older people are just their clients. And maybe even this is one of the few opportunities to make economies grow.

Demographic problems in the world are part of the so-called global problems. Global problems are problems that affect the whole world and require the efforts of all mankind to solve. These problems arose in the second half of the 20th century, and in the 21st century they continue to worsen. Their feature is a stable relationship with each other.

The demographic problem itself is divided into two parts:

• The problem of a sharp increase in population in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• The problem of population decline and aging in Western Europe, Japan and Russia.

The problem of population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Problems of demography in the world became especially relevant in the second half of the 20th century. At this time, significant changes occurred in the social sphere of society:

• Firstly, medicine has made great strides forward, thanks to the use of new medicines and new medical equipment. As a result, it was possible to cope with epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people, and to reduce mortality from some other dangerous diseases.
• Secondly, since the middle of the 20th century, humanity has not waged global wars that could have significantly reduced the population.

As a result, mortality rates around the world have dropped sharply. The planet's population reached 7 billion people at the beginning of the 21st century. Of these, about 6 billion live in Third World countries - Asia, Africa and Latin America. It was in these countries that a process that is commonly called the demographic explosion took place.

The main reasons for the population explosion in Third World countries:

• The birth rate remains high, along with low mortality.
• The important role of traditional religious and national values, which prohibit abortion and the use of contraceptives.
• In some countries of Central Africa, the influence of rudiments of pagan culture. And as a consequence - a low level of morality and promiscuity.

In the 1950s and 60s, the consequences of the population explosion inspired optimistic hopes among the population. However, later it became obvious that a sharp increase in the birth rate leads to a number of problems:

• The problem of the number of working-age population. In a number of countries, the number of children under 16 years of age is equal to, and in some even greater than, the number of adults.
• The problem of the lack of territories that meet the necessary conditions for the life and development of citizens.
• The problem of food shortages.
• The problem of shortage of raw materials.

Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to a number of other global problems.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, in a number of Third World countries, policies began to be pursued at the state level to stimulate a reduction in the birth rate of the population. This applies, first of all, to China and India, where the mottos from the series: “One family - one child” have become widespread. Families with one or two children began to receive benefits from the government. This gave some results, and the birth rate was somewhat reduced. But population growth in these countries still remains very high.

Features of the demographic situation in developed countries

Demographic problems in the world have greatly affected developed Western countries. These countries have seen a clear trend towards aging and population decline over the past fifty years.

That is, on the one hand, the number of elderly people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of medical and social services for citizens.

On the other hand, the birth rate is sharply declining, which means the percentage of the young population is decreasing.

Developed countries of the world from the point of view of the demographic situation can be divided into several groups:

• Countries where there is population growth due to their own birth rate. That is, the birth rate in the country exceeds the death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
• Countries in which population growth still persists due to fertility, but growth due to migration is higher: Spain, Holland, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
• States where the population is declining both due to the excess of mortality over the birth rate and due to the emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, the Baltic countries, Poland.

What are the reasons for the decline in fertility in the West? This is, first of all:

• The consequences of the sexual revolution of the 1960s and 70s, when various methods of contraception came into widespread use.
• Interest in career growth in the professional field, which usually significantly increases the time threshold for getting married and having children in Western countries.
• Family crisis in modern society: increasing percentage of divorces and unregistered cohabitation.
• Increasing number of same-sex marriages.
• The modern Western culture of “comfort” itself. It does not encourage parents to expend additional effort in raising and providing financially for several children.

Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in Western countries threatens them with the extinction of their own population and its replacement by immigrants from Asian and African countries. The beginning of this process can be seen in Europe now, analyzing the latest events with migrants from Third World countries.

Current demographic situation in Russia

Demographic problems in the world have also affected Russia. Our country can be classified as a European country of the second group. That is, we have a slight population increase, but it is carried out not only with the help of the birth rate, but also with immigration from the CIS countries. As of 2016, mortality in Russia exceeds birth rates by approximately 70 thousand per year. About 200 thousand migrate to the country during the same time period.

Causes of the demographic problem in Russia:

• Consequences of the economic and social decline of the 1990s. Low standard of living, which many families use to justify their reluctance to have children. However, it must be taken into account that the high standard of living in Western European countries, in practice, leads, on the contrary, to a decrease in the birth rate in this region.
• The absence in society, as a result of many years of communist rule, of strong religious foundations, as in a number of Catholic and Muslim countries abroad.
• Incorrect government policy, as a result of which large families for many years received minimal benefits in the country.
• Absence of propaganda against abortion at the state level. Russia ranks one of the first in the world in terms of the number of abortions, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.

Government policy aimed in recent years at providing financial support to families who have decided to have a second and third child has yielded results.

Improved medical care also played a role. The birth rate in the country has increased significantly, and the death rate has decreased slightly.

However, it is necessary to create long-term and large-scale programs in Russia aimed at stimulating the birth rate, supporting large families, single mothers, and reducing the number of abortions. Government activities aimed at raising the moral level of the population can also play a big role.

As a result of market reforms and transformational changes carried out in recent years, dramatic changes have occurred in the living conditions of the Russian population, which significantly affected the psychological and physical behavior of people, including the birth rate.

Thus, a demographic problem arose in Russia, which left a certain imprint on the standard of living of the population, which has significantly transformed in recent years.

The main reduction factors are:

A rapid decline in the income level of a certain part of the population;

A significant proportion of the poor with a rather vague definition of the poverty level;

Significant levels of unemployment coupled with non-payment of wages;

Destruction of the social sphere.

All of the above facts affected the well-being of the population. The problems in Russia were marked by a natural decline followed by a cessation of population growth, which led to its decline. Thus, the formation of an ineffective model of internal and external migration can be traced.

In Russia, it was the result of the use of “shock therapy,” which led to a drop in citizens’ incomes, and hopes for their recovery in the next decades are low. Thus, based on historical data, it was only in 2002 that the population reached the 1997 level.

The main factor in the twofold decline in the standard of living of Russian citizens in comparison with 1991. is the inadequacy of wages. Due to its significant reduction, wages ceased to fulfill the following functions:

Reproductive (not ensuring even the simplest reproduction of a citizen’s labor force);

Economic (does not stimulate increased productivity and quality of labor);

Social.

The demographic problem in Russia indicates a very low consumer level of the population. Statistics confirm this. Thus, average food costs make up about half of the total expenses of Russian families. Moreover, in other countries this figure does not exceed 30%. It should be noted that all this happens in the presence of enormous resources.

The demographic problem in Russia begins in 1992. In that year, the mortality and fertility curves crossed, and it is not yet possible to detect signs of significant improvements.

Of course, Russia's demographic problems are influenced by a similar situation in other countries. For example, in many countries there is a significant decline in the birth rate, which in the near future may lead to a slowdown in population growth. However, the demographic problem in the world is determined not only by a decrease in population growth, but also by such factors as the climatic characteristics of the regions, the state of their external environment, social and economic living conditions.

(Quelles relations entre économie et démographie? // Problèmes écon. - P., 2003.-N2811.-P. 29-30. Published in Russian Journal "Economy" No. 2, 2004, pp. 147-150. Abstracting - P. N. Kulikova)

The relationship between demographic growth and economic development has been the subject of debate for two centuries. In recent years, an opinion has become established regarding the causal connections between these two phenomena. Thus, a report by the United Nations Population Fund argues that the existence of large families and rapid population growth constitute an obstacle to economic development and contribute to the persistence of poverty, slowing economic growth and increasing consumption of the most disadvantaged segments of the population. Poverty, according to the report's authors, would have fallen by a third if birth rates had been reduced in all countries in the 1980s. To overcome poverty, states must address demographic problems and combat the poor sanitary conditions of the poor and their consequences in terms of population reproduction.

This approach is based on the neo-Malthusian thesis, which became widespread in the 1960s and 1970s, according to which elevated fertility levels impede economic development. Under his influence, family planning programs were developed, which were financed by public funds and presented as a panacea for all the economic problems of poor countries. However, in the 1980s, the results of empirical research discredited neo-Malthusian ideas. They were supplanted by the approach according to which the main vector of economic growth is not the accumulation of physical capital in the form of material assets, but human capital and technological progress. Proponents of this view believe that demographic pressure leads to institutional, technical and political changes. Demographic growth can influence economic development despite factors such as poor policy choices, corruption and a lack of natural resources.

In recent years, economists have returned to the view that demographic processes play a primary role in economic development. The above-mentioned report from the United Nations Population Fund indicates, however, that the determining factor in demographics is a change in the age pyramid, and not demographic growth itself. An increase in life expectancy leads to a decrease in female fertility and birth rates, which leads to an increase in the proportion of dependents in the total working-age population. The reduction in family size also leads to an increase in women's economic employment.

As long as the labor market can absorb labor, labor productivity will increase. This creates the so-called "demographic dividend" of economic growth, which increases savings, savings and investment. Families with fewer children can devote more resources to their children's education and health, resulting in a more productive workforce.

Various options for demographic growth and its changes over time are the most important factors in economic development. Economic growth slows down during the first and last phases of the demographic transition, when the youngest and oldest cohorts of the population reach their maximum numbers. "Demographic dividends" appear only in the middle phase and only once. Low levels of fertility in the long term lead to a relative increase in the number of older people, which increases the dependency ratio (the ratio of people of retirement age to working age).

However, the economy and society do not receive “demographic dividends” automatically. Fair policy choices - namely, introducing flexibility in the employment market, stimulating investment and savings, providing benefits for education and health care - remain the main condition for ensuring high labor productivity of the economically active population.

If this is the case, then the change in the age pyramid caused by the decline in mortality and birth rates is a factor in economic growth. As for poverty, it is not only economic growth that contributes to its reduction. Declining fertility in turn leads to a redistribution of consumption to the poor and can also increase their incomes by allowing women to enter the labor market.

“Demographic dividends” have become the main component of the “economic miracle” in the countries of Southeast Asia (SEA). In the 1950s, these countries had an average of six children per woman, compared with two today. As a result of the decline in the birth rate, the share of the economically active population increased from 57 in 1965 to 65% in 1990, which was four times the increase in the number of dependents. By some estimates, the “demographic dividend” accounted for about a third of the growth in per capita income during this period.

Latin American countries, on the other hand, have failed to take full advantage of this phenomenon. Despite favorable demographic conditions, per capita income on average increased from 1975 to 1998 by only 0.7% versus 6.8% in Southeast Asian countries. This happened as a result of poor political choices. Research suggests that average per capita income growth could double if the region were more trade-intensive.

Thus, as experience shows, developing countries entering the demographic transition phase have the only chance to benefit from the “demographic dividend.” Dependency ratios in SEA countries are projected to peak in 2015 and 2025. The richest countries in Latin America are ending their demographic transition, but their poorer neighbors will be in a demographic transition that will not peak until 2020-2030. (p. 30).

In sub-Saharan Africa, only 11 countries will reach their peak dependency ratios before 2050, but their fertility rates will not fall sufficiently. The rapid increase in deaths due to AIDS will also affect the expected changes in the age pyramid. Once the demographic transition is complete and the demographic dividend has been received, countries will face the next major challenge: the need to support and care for the elderly population.