What the Kurdish referendum means for the future of Iraq. The game of independence: why Kurdistan will not secede from Iraq

If Iraqi Kurdistan, an autonomous region within Iraq, declares independence from Baghdad, Tehran will close the border with this region, the secretary of the Supreme Council said national security Iran (the country's key security agency) Ali Shamkhani.

“The border agreement is valid exclusively with the central government of Iraq, and the separation of Kurdistan from the central authorities of Iraq will mean the closure of all border crossings on the common (with Iraqi Kurdistan - Gazeta.Ru) border,” RIA Novosti quotes Shamkhani as saying.

Oil exports to Iran are one of the important sources of income for the Iraqi Kurdish government. Export is carried out using tanker trucks, since the border passes through difficult mountainous terrain and it is quite difficult to lay a pipeline there.

Therefore, closing the border and stopping transport communication will inevitably affect the economic situation in the autonomy in the event of its separation from Iraq.

Another state neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, is moving its military units to the border with the autonomy. General Staff Turkish army officially announced on Monday, September 18, that it was starting exercises on the border with the region preparing for the referendum. The exercises are conducted according to the scenario of “possible counteraction to terrorists,” the department said in a statement. IN in social networks Many photographs have already appeared of armored vehicles massed in the area of ​​the Silopi border crossing, the main crossing between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at the level of political statements, has constantly said that he does not recognize the idea of ​​holding a plebiscite in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Turkish leader is currently on an official visit to New York, where the 72nd session of the UN General Assembly is taking place. Here he met with the head of the White House, Donald Trump, and agreed with his American colleague to continue working together“to establish stability in the region and defeat terrorism.”

“Leaders confirmed that they reject the planned referendum of the Kurdistan Regional Government on September 25 and that there will be serious consequences,” the White House press office said in a statement.

Almost all states that in one way or another have their interests in the Middle East have officially spoken out against the referendum of the Iraqi Kurds. However, the government in Erbil, the capital of the autonomy, is consistently moving towards a nationwide plebiscite, the results of which are beyond doubt among experts: the majority of the population will vote for independence. The President of the autonomous region, Masoud Barzani, said on September 19 that the referendum could be postponed only if Baghdad and the international community guarantee that the Kurds will still be granted independence.

Unity for Independence

The topic of independence of Iraqi Kurdistan from the government in Baghdad has been raised many times since 2003, after the occupation of Iraq by the United States and its allies. The Kurds, fighting on the side of the Americans, played an important role in the war against Saddam Hussein.

The President of Autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, has announced almost every year his intention to secede from federal Iraq in order to create his own state.

Since the outbreak of uprisings in the Arab regions in 2011, the opposition within the autonomy has accused Barzani of using declarations of independence as a populist method to distract the population from domestic political and economic problems.

But relations between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq began to deteriorate much earlier - they were constantly persecuted by the Arabs from the moment the independence of Iraq was declared (until chemical attacks in 1988).

However, after the start of the operation to liberate Mosul from militants, “ Islamic State"(IS, an organization banned in Russia) in October 2016, the topic of the referendum began to take on more and more tangible features. By the end of 2016, Kurdish Peshmarga armed forces stopped participating in the assault on Mosul. The political leadership of the autonomy set a course for organizing a vote on independence.

The reasons for this are quite simple: the Iraqi army, which could have opposed the Kurdish government, was significantly weakened during the battle for Mosul. Estimated former chairman Iraqi federal government Nuri al-Maliki, during the liberation of the second largest city in the country, about 20 thousand army and police soldiers were killed and wounded. However, the Peshmarga's losses amounted to only a few hundred.

Its total number today is estimated at 100 thousand people. This exceeds the combined strength of the Iraqi army and federal police.

Secondly, against the backdrop of the fight against IS, the problems of Iraqi Kurdistan became visible at the global level. Politicians in Erbil issued reminders that it was the Iraqi army, due to its ineffectiveness, that lost hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of territory and thousands of weapons to IS militants. Although the Peshmarga lost some territories during the summer offensive of the Islamic State in 2014, without offering any resistance (in particular, the flight of the Peshmarga became the cause of the genocide of the Yazidis in the Shingal region).

In addition, the Kurds became the owners of the richest deposits in the vicinity of the city of Kirkuk. Until the summer of 2014, the area was controlled by the federal government of Baghdad. But after the start of the IS offensive, the army and police fled Kirkuk in panic.

Before the radicals captured the city and the oil fields, the Kurds managed to occupy them and create defensive lines. Since then, Erbil has owned Kirkuk oil. Its export to Turkey and Iran is one of the main ways to fill the autonomy’s budget.

The referendum should confirm Kirkuk's belonging to Iraqi Kurdistan.

Today, the issue of a plebiscite has consolidated the previously irreconcilable political forces of Iraqi Kurdistan - the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP, the ruling party under the leadership of Masoud Barzani) and the opposition Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK, despite the fact that it proclaimed as its official doctrine the creation of a broad confederation throughout the Middle East, nevertheless yielded to the nationalist impulses of its supporters and declared that it advocated the creation of an independent Kurdish state. At the same time, democratic confederalism, from the point of view of the PKK, involves the creation of diversity cultural autonomies(or ethnic autonomies) within the Middle East confederation instead nation states, the enmity between which is the cause of permanent wars in the region.

Kurds - largest nation in a world that does not have its own state. Their number is estimated at 25-40 million people. The largest Kurdish diasporas live in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Before the start of the Arab Spring, the creation of an independent state by the Kurds was a matter of debate. But after governments in Iraq and Syria began to lose control over their territories, the Kurds took advantage of the situation to strengthen themselves.

Against the chain reaction

The desire of the Iraqi Kurds for independence was not supported by any of the states in the Middle East, except Israel. The fears of Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq are understandable: the proclamation of one Kurdish state could lead to a parade of sovereignties of the Kurdish states (or to annexation to an already proclaimed state). Worse yet, other minorities in the region may also come up with separatist initiatives.

For example, Christian Assyrians still do not have any autonomous entities, although they have repeatedly declared their claims to such a format of existence.

Not all Sunni Arabs want to live together with Shiite Arabs. Big problems with the Sunnis among the Yazidis.

The US opposes Erbil's initiatives because initially, since the occupation in 2003, Washington proclaimed the territorial integrity of Iraq, but changing it political system- from authoritarian socialist to liberal democratic. In defiance of the Americans, their main ally in the Middle East, Israel, acts.

On September 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke in support of a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan. The editor of the Yezidi Press, Rustam Rzgoyan, believes that Tel Aviv is behaving consistently. “It is not surprising that Israel actively supports the independence of the Iraqi Kurds,” Rzgoyan said in an interview with Gazeta.Ru. “You need to understand that Tel Aviv has long provided them with military and financial support.

The Israeli military trained the Kurdish military and, according to some sources, stood at the origins of the creation of the special services of Iraqi Kurdistan - Asayish and Parastin. They rely on the Kurds as a counterweight to the Arabs according to the principle “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

However, editor Rzgoyan does not believe that Erbil will agree to a real declaration of independence and separation from federal Iraq in conditions where it is not supported by the international community. “Even if the referendum takes place,” says the expert, “the Kurds are unlikely to declare independence. Even the Turks, Masoud Barzani’s closest allies, will not allow this. Most likely, the referendum is a way to blackmail Baghdad in order to receive large dividends. It is no secret that Ankara and Baghdad, which oppose Kurdish independence, exerted great financial assistance Erbil. Even the Peshmarga budget is allocated by Baghdad.”

Rzgoyan is confident that without the support of the leading powers, the vote of the Iraqi Kurds to create their own state will be purely formal, without serious practical consequences.

• Translator: nessie264

Original publication: What the Kurdish Referendum Means for the Future of Iraq

On April 10, 2003, I was driving along a road west of Kirkuk, expecting the city to be overrun by Kurdish peshmerga; I was afraid that we might get there before the Iraqi army left or was defeated. We did not see a single car coming towards us from Kirkuk, which could mean that fighting still going.

On the sides we saw abandoned camps of the Iraqi army, but there were no looters - bad sign in Iraq in war time, where only extreme danger restrains marauders from attempting to seize the richest spoils. We were talking about what to do when a car coming from Kirkuk appeared towards us; her driver leaned out the window and shouted: “It’s all over - the road to Kirkuk is open.”

In the city itself there is rampant looting; They stole everything from mattresses to fire trucks. I saw two robbers steal the big yellow bulldozer they had just stolen. Kurdish peshmerga forces took the city hours ago, saying they were there to fill a power vacuum left by the collapse of the Iraqi army and to restore order, although they did little to stop the looters.

The Peshmerga has repeatedly promised the Americans that it has no plans to take over Kirkuk and, even now, it has maintained that it is only a temporary occupation. A senior Kurdish officer, standing in the ruins of the governor's office, told me that "we expect some of our people to be withdrawn in 45 minutes."

Fourteen years later, the Kurds still control Kirkuk, the oil capital of northern Iraq with a mixed population of Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen, and much of that province. The leaders of the US-led coalition during the invasion feared that if the Kurds captured the city, it would provoke a Turkish invasion, as Turkey had declared that it would not tolerate such a thing. I wrote an article describing the Kurdish takeover of the city under the title "Kurdish victory raises fears of Turkish invasion."

Journalists writing about Kirkuk have often called it a "powder keg" due to its ethnic and religious divisions along with its oil wealth, which so many would like to control various sides.

This cliché is useful for journalists writing about Iraqi Kurdistan in general because it suggests that an explosion will occur, although it is not known exactly when. Time and time again, predictions of a Turkish invasion or war between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi central government army over disputed territories have proven false or premature.

The referendum on the independence of Kurdish-controlled territory, scheduled for September 25, is the latest in a series of events declared as a threat to the stability of Iraq and much of the Middle East. Rarely has a democratic vote in such a small piece of territory drawn such unanimous condemnation from so many world powers, including the US, UK, Germany and France.

The White house in its statement, draws the attention of the leaders of the Kurdistan Regional Government that the referendum distracts from efforts to defeat ISIS and establish stability in the liberated territories. Holding a referendum in disputed territories is extremely provocative and destabilizing.”

Regional powers such as Turkey and Iran have also demanded that the referendum be canceled and are threatening retribution if it is not done. In Baghdad, Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi condemned it, and the Supreme Court ruled that the referendum was “unconstitutional.” But despite all the shouting and fury, it looks like the vote will take place.

The strange thing about this hysterical reaction is that the referendum is not binding and does not oblige the regional government president, Massoud Barzani, to do anything concrete to achieve self-determination. He himself said the purpose of the vote was to “tell the world that we want independence,” adding that foreign powers believed the call for a referendum was just a “pressure card,” a ploy to extract concessions from Baghdad.

Moving forward with the referendum, he is confident that he has put Kurdish independence firmly on the agenda. Be that as it may, he demonstrated that the international community is afraid of anything that destabilizes Iraq and that cooperation with the Kurds cannot be taken for granted.

Among Iraqi Kurds, Barzani has already rebuilt his reputation as a model of Kurdish nationalism by defying threats and entreaties to postpone or cancel the referendum. Even Kurdish leaders opposed it, since it was too risky to call for as many votes as possible for independence, since this could undermine the demand for the creation of a Kurdish state.

Moreover, the national issue distracts attention from the corruption and incompetence of the Kurdistan Regional Government and the dire state of the economy. Barzani has set presidential and parliamentary elections for November 1, when he and his Kurdish Democratic Party will benefit from the overwhelming yes vote in a referendum held 35 days earlier.

The political landscape in northern Iraq is changing in other ways. ISIS is retreating and on Thursday the Iraqi army launched an offensive against the last remaining significant enclaves in Hawiyah, west of Kirkuk.

As always, calculating the political and military balance of power in Iraq is difficult because there are so many players involved, and how they will come together is unpredictable. How, for example, will Abadi react to such a suspicious attitude towards him from the regional government? His troops have just won historic victory over ISIS, capturing Mosul after a nine-month siege. He does not want to lose the credibility he gained then when Barzani enters into a confrontation with him.

On the other hand, ultimate success in Mosul depends on air support from the US-led coalition. Without it, the military power of the central government is reduced this moment too modest for it to use the military option against the Kurds.

This is another reason why the Kurdish leadership may be cautious after the referendum, believing that repealing last minute it won't: they have too much to lose. The Kurdish demand for self-determination is unlike that of the Algerians and Vietnamese after World War II, since in many ways the Kurdistan Regional Government already has greater independence and has enjoyed it since 2003. This government is politically and militarily stronger than many UN members. But it is also true that the actual share of Kurdish political power in the nominal coalition government in Baghdad is shrinking. Essentially, Iraq is already two countries, despite the remaining external signs unitary state.

The real limit to self-determination for Iraqi Kurdistan is that, regardless of the referendum, it will remain a minnow in shark-infested waters. The United States and its allies, after the defeat of ISIS, will no longer need the Kurds to the same extent as they do now. Iraq's central government will be stronger, not weaker. The safest course for the Kurds remains a confederal power-sharing agreement with Baghdad, but so far neither side has shown any willingness to make that happen.

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Millions of Kurds living in Northern Iraq are taking part in a referendum on the country's independence. Iraq and Turkey do not hide their concern about this and threaten a tough response

A referendum on the independence of Kurdistan has begun in Northern Iraq. Millions of Kurds living here take part in it.

to be announced in three days.

As experts emphasize, even if the overwhelming majority of referendum participants speak out in support of statehood, this does not mean the immediate proclamation independent Kurdistan. At the same time, Kurdish leader Masoud Barazani will receive the authority of his people to negotiate self-determination with the authorities of Iraq and neighboring countries.

“We have been waiting for this day for a hundred years,” say the Kurds at the polling stations. “With the help of Allah and the will of the people, we will find our own state.”

Iraq has an extremely negative attitude towards the referendum, accusing the Kurds of attempting to divide the country and threatening retaliatory actions. The head of the country's government, Haider Al-Abadi, made it quite clear that things could lead to an armed conflict.

Turkey issued a similar warning. At a meeting chaired by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday, September 23, the Turkish government outlined a set of actions to respond to the Kurdish referendum. The Turkish leadership said it understands that Ankara is “serious” and “reserves the right to any development of events.” It was emphasized that “the referendum poses a direct threat to Turkey’s national security.” There are fears here that a positive outcome of the referendum in Northern Iraq will strengthen separatist sentiments in Turkey itself, where Kurds make up 18% of the population.

The Turkish army has already moved its troops to the border with Iraq under the guise of large-scale exercises. According to international media, there are large formations of armored vehicles and infantry here. At the same time, all border crossings are closed, and Turkish citizens in Iraq are asked to urgently return home.

Another country with a significant Kurdish population, Iran, also opposes the referendum. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic Ali Shamkhani said that if a referendum on independence is held in Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran will close the border with neighboring country. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in the Iranian Kurdistan region have been placed on high alert.

Turkey, the United States and other countries have advised the Kurds in Iraq to cancel the Sept. 25 referendum, fearing that tensions between the regime in Baghdad and the Kurds in the north will lead to war in Iraq and Syria, which also have Kurdish minorities.

Let us remember that the only country that supports the independence of Kurdistan is Israel.

When dividing the territories, they plan to take with them a number of areas not included in the autonomy - for example, the oil breadbasket of Iraq - the province of Kirkuk. All this could provoke new military-political conflicts in the region. However, without outside support the Kurds are unlikely to decide to secede. RT figured out who is in favor and who is against the appearance of a Kurdish state on the map.

• Reuters

State within a state

In September 2017, a referendum on the independence of the region is scheduled to take place in the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq. The head of the autonomy, Masoud Barzani, and the leaders of the Kurdish parties in Iraq agreed on this on June 7.

In addition, the parties agreed on the date of elections for the president of the autonomy - voting is scheduled for December 6, 2017. It is possible that these elections will already take place in a sovereign state, into which the authorities of the autonomy plan to turn Iraqi Kurdistan.

• Reuters

However, it is unknown whether Kurdish politicians will be able to achieve this goal. It is obvious that the initiative to secede Iraqi Kurdistan will encounter resistance from Baghdad and will seriously irritate other regional powers. The situation is complicated by internal political differences in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Now the Kurdish parties, mainly the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), are forming a joint team to work out the details of the upcoming plebiscite.

Two parties refused to participate in the negotiations - the Movement for Change (Gorran) and the Kurdistan Islamic Group (KIG).

The authorities of Iraqi Kurdistan have announced their intention to hold a referendum on independence, which will turn this new country into a mortal threat for some and an important ally for others.

Civilized divorce

The twenty-fifth of September 2017 is precisely this date that may put an end to centuries-old, according to the Kurds, injustice against their people. It was on this date that the leadership of Iraqi Kurdistan scheduled a referendum on independence, as a result of which an independent Kurdish state should be formed. “This referendum is the legitimate right of our people, and then we would like to peacefully discuss (with Baghdad - Ed.) the results of this referendum,” says the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani. Few people doubt what its results will be - it is unlikely that the number of voters in favor will be less than 80%.

The official government of Iraq is categorically against the referendum. “No party can decide the fate of Iraq on its own,” said Iraqi government spokesman Saad al-Haddid. The position is quite strange, because, unfortunately for Mr. al-Haddid and for Iraq as a whole, the fate of this country was decided almost 15 years ago. The American invasion actually broke all the bonds that held this country as single state. And those threads with which Iraq was constantly stitched together are not able to withstand the pressure of centrifugal forces. In addition, Kurdistan is already de facto independent, and has been for many years. Finally, the Kurds are talking about their intention not to sever all ties with Baghdad. For example, Erbil (the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan) is going to continue the joint fight against terrorists with Iraq. In addition, Erbil intends to ""to do everything possible" to ensure that the reign of current Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi "is successful."

Stole someone else's property

The problem is that the referendum will “bury” Haider al-Abadi. The transformation of de facto independence of Kurdistan into de jure could trigger a chain reaction for the collapse of all of Iraq and will not allow preserving the state even in a federal form. In addition, the Kurds leaving Iraq will take with them not only the territory of Kurdistan itself, but also those lands that were occupied by the Kurdish militia (Peshmerga) during the current war against IS*. For example, oil-rich Kirkuk (which, according to Erbil's calculations, should also be included in the Kurdish state), as well as Sinjar, inhabited by Yazidis.

Yes, this is not the first time the Kurds have held a referendum. In 2005, a similar expression of popular will already took place in Iraqi Kurdistan, and about 98% voted for independence. But, firstly, as Barzani correctly notes, “the then referendum was announced and carried out public organizations, and the current one is organized by the government and political parties"Secondly, the referendum at that time took place in a territory smaller than that which the Iraqi Kurds control now. And thirdly, then, in 2005, international situation did not contribute to independence. Now the situation is somewhat different.

Camping in the Middle East

The news of the referendum has already caused a sharp reaction from the neighbors of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish President Erdogan was "deeply upset" by the decision. The President-Sultan called it “a wrong step that poses a threat to the territorial integrity of all of Iraq” and which “will not benefit anyone.” The Iranians agree with the Turks. “Kurdistan is an integral part of Iraqi territory, and Iran supports the unity of Iraq,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said.

Both states are not interested in the emergence of an independent Iraqi Kurdistan, since they have their own Kurdish enclaves on their territories. And it’s restless there - to Urdish militants regularly carry out raids from bases in Iraq into Iranian territory, and in the Kurdish provinces of Turkey there is almost a civil war going on.

But can Ankara and Tehran do something? From a military point of view, nothing. Yes, now the Turks are hinting to the Kurds about the possibility of intervention, for example, by supporting Baghdad’s position on Kirkuk. “According to the Iraqi constitution, Kirkuk is an Iraqi city and is not within the borders of Kurdish territory,” says Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin. “Any attempts to force Kirkuk into the referendum issue will cause problems both in the city and around it.” But it’s one thing to threaten , but starting a war is a completely different matter. The Iraqi Peshmerga have already shown their combat capability. “Iraqi Kurdistan is a fortress, a kind of island of security in the entire Middle East. A significant number of Arabs come there for basic recreation, campsites are built for them,” Russian political scientist Karine Gevorgyan, who has visited Iraqi Kurdistan more than once, tells RIA Novosti.

Suppose Ankara begins to implement its threats - it introduces an embargo (or rather, it joins the almost inevitable Iraqi one), and also begins to carry out some military operations. In this case, it will lose not only all large-scale economic investments in this region, but also large-scale political ones. For example, Masoud Barzani denounces the agreement between him and Erdogan on the refusal of Iraqi Kurdistan to support the Turkish Kurds in exchange for Turkish money and Turkish products. In fact, as Turkish journalist Chingiz Candar notes, Iraqi Kurdistan is Turkey’s only friend in the region today, and it would be unwise to lose it. Indeed, in this case, Barzani may swing towards Iran (Tehran has long been working to strengthen its influence on Erbil), which is already Ankara’s geopolitical rival.

Tehran has the same problems with choice. The conflict with Iraqi Kurdistan will lead to increased support for Erbil from Kurdish militants in Iran itself, as well as to the fact that all influence in this region will be lost in favor of the Turks.

There will be friends

Of course, there is a way out of this dilemma - Tehran and Ankara can overcome mutual mistrust and, together with Baghdad and Damascus, organize a multilateral blockade of Iraqi Kurdistan. However, in this case, Barzani could easily swing towards other partners who value and need to be friends with the Iraqi Kurds. For example, cooperate with the Americans. It is no coincidence that the State Department took a very diplomatic position in relation to the referendum - they “appreciate the legitimate aspirations of the people of Iraqi Kurdistan,” but at the same time “support a united, stable, democratic Iraq,” and also believe that the referendum will only distract attention from more serious tasks in region like the defeat of ISIS*. Washington views the Iraqi Kurds (as well as the Syrian) as an American outpost in the region, through which it is possible to influence all countries - the overly ambitious Turkey, the aggressive Iran, in the opinion of the Americans, and Iraq, and various forces in Syria. An independent, pro-American Iraqi Kurdistan is an excellent barrier to contain all regional forces. Therefore, the Americans will support Erbil with both money and security guarantees.

Another potential friend - Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have already informally supported the referendum. This way they will be able to contain both Iran and Turkey. Saudi allies Egypt and the UAE have already joined Riyadh’s position.

Finally, you can find other partners whose guarantees are more significant. For example, Russia. The corresponding negotiations have already been held in Moscow and commercial proposals have been made (according to some reports, Rosneft will participate in the development of the oil and gas industry of Kurdistan).

Thus, today Massoud Barzani has every opportunity to gain real independence for Iraqi Kurdistan. And almost immediately register a divorce from Baghdad (for example, through the refusal of Iraqi Kurdistan to participate in the parliamentary elections in Iraq, which will take place in 2018 - it will be very difficult to win back this refusal). However, Barzani can retain wide room for maneuver. According to Karine Gevorgyan, this is possible through the choice of the correct wording in the referendum: not “independence”, but “part of the confederation”. After which it will be possible to negotiate with Baghdad on the terms of this confederation - on very, very good terms.

Now Masoud Barzani takes a rather tough position. "This is a referendum on independence, and I want everyone to understand this. When the referendum is over and we begin a dialogue (with Baghdad - editor's note), we are not going to give up the desire of the people. The referendum is on independence, and its results will be implemented,” said the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan. However, there is still time to think about it until September 25th. And to everyone.

*Terrorist organization banned in Russia.