Bloomberg about Medvedev. Bloomberg has learned of Medvedev's concerns about his future in Russian politics. Bloomberg warns American elites

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, against the backdrop of the corruption scandal that unfolded around him, the protests against corruption that then swept across the country, and a noticeable drop in his rating among Russians, is more concerned than ever about his political future. The American agency Bloomberg reported this on April 27, citing two sources close to the head of the Cabinet of Ministers.

Two other sources close to the Kremlin said Medvedev would likely become more “vulnerable” as the 2018 Russian presidential election approaches. According to the results of a Levada Center survey published in early April, within a month after the release of the investigation by Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation about Medvedev’s secret holdings, the prime minister’s approval rating fell by 10%.

In March of this year, Medvedev showed his lowest rating among the population since 2006. It turned out that only 42% of respondents approve of the Prime Minister’s activities, 57% do not approve. Thus, Medvedev’s rating dropped this year to a historic low, since the level of approval of his activities never fell below 50%.

Medvedev's resignation - an easy choice or a gift to the opposition

As Bloomberg notes, ditching the unpopular prime minister would be an "easy choice" ahead of Russia's 2018 presidential campaign. Incumbent Vladimir Putin, who is "almost guaranteed to win next year and cements his status as the longest-reigning Russian leader since Stalin, is finding it difficult to generate enthusiasm among voters."

A change in the government's No. 1 figure could "provide insight into how to breathe new life into Putin's government and help boost turnout among voters disillusioned by the longest economic downturn in two decades," according to a Bloomberg article translated by InoPressa.

On the other hand, Medvedev's resignation may embolden Putin's opponents. "Chief among them is Alexei Navalny, an activist lawyer who released a documentary in early March accusing Medvedev of amassing more than a billion dollars in luxury real estate in Russia and Italy, funneled by his business associates into fictitious charities," he notes. agency.

Putin cannot dismiss Medvedev “without turning it into a gift for Navalny,” the agency cites the opinion of political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky, who was an adviser to the head of the Russian Presidential Administration until 2011.

The FBK investigative film about Medvedev, “He’s Not Dimon to You,” has already reached YouTube over 20 million views. The release of the material served as a reason for protests on March 26, which attracted about 60 thousand people in more than 80 cities of Russia. The scale of the rallies and the participation of large numbers of schoolchildren and students were “unpleasant surprises for Putin,” two sources close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg.

There are fears within the Russian President’s inner circle that if something happens to Putin, “the Constitution will install Medvedev in his place,” Bloomberg reports. While there is no immediate risk to Putin, who is widely believed to be in good health, Medvedev will have plenty of reasons for revenge in this situation, so pressure is growing on Putin to remove the prime minister, political scientist Sergei Markov told the agency. At the same time, there is an opinion that there is an agreement between them to retain Medvedev as prime minister until 2018. According to Markov, Medvedev is “coated with Teflon”, “can take any number of blows” and “will survive”.

According to former senior Kremlin official Alexei Chesnakov, Putin is likely to leave any decision regarding Medvedev until closer to the elections because "if you take this step too early, it will not be as effective." Medvedev’s resignation could become “quite realistic if something needs to be revived during the campaign,” the agency’s interlocutor believes.

In the meantime, Medvedev is a convenient figure for Putin in the role of a “lightning rod” for discontent, allowing the president to “remain above the fray,” said political strategist Andrei Kolyadin. If Putin removes Medvedev from office, “he himself may become an object of criticism.”

Previously, almost half of Russians supported Medvedev’s resignation

The day before, the results of a Levada Center survey were published on the attitude of Russians to Medvedev’s activities. Sociologists have recorded a decrease over the year in the number of those who trust the prime minister from 14% to 3%. At the same time, the number of citizens who “completely do not trust” the head of the Cabinet of Ministers increased from 14% to 19%, respectively. The number of respondents expressing “sympathy” for Medvedev decreased from 12% in 2013 to 8% in April 2017. The number of people feeling “disgusted” increased from 2% to 4%.

It turned out that 45% of Russians to one degree or another support Medvedev's resignation from the post of prime minister. 18% of respondents were “definitely in favor” of his resignation, and 27% were “rather in favor”. At the same time, the share of those who were opposed to his leaving office to varying degrees was 33%.

Experts linked the fall in Medvedev’s rating, in particular, with the publication in March of this year of an investigative film by the Anti-Corruption Foundation of oppositionist Alexei Navalny, “He’s Not Dimon for You,” which talks about secret possessions allegedly at the disposal of the prime minister. The release of the material caused a wave of protests against corruption throughout the country.

The publication of the American agency Bloomberg about possible candidates for the post of Russian prime minister is a political lever, an instrument of pressure, one of its tasks is to warn the American elites about the need to establish ties with Moscow. This opinion was expressed by Economy Today experts.

After the presidential elections in March next year, the president will have to dissolve the government, and, accordingly, for the post of prime minister, Bloomberg claims, there are now three candidates - head B Elvira Nabiullina, Mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin and head Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov.

Publication as a political lever

“Systemic replacement of personnel is always caused by a systemic reason - a change in approaches, formats, tasks of power. Based on this logic, one can, of course, assume a replacement of the cabinet of ministers headed by the prime minister,” says the political scientist Leonid Krutakov.

Regarding the candidates indicated by Bloomberg, both Sobyanin (who, when difficulties arose with Moscow, were placed “in the capital” as one of the best managers in the country) and “technocrat” Manturov seem acceptable to Leonid Krutakov. Nabiullina’s position raises doubts because, the expert believes, she is an official of dual subordination; the Central Bank is not, after all, strictly a state bank.

In the fact of Bloomberg's publication, Krutakov sees an undeniably political reason.

"Such publications are always political in nature. On the one hand, they influence the elite and make them nervous; on the other hand, they are a kind of trial balloon, a test of sentiment. Any rumor, assumption, hidden information that gets into the public space turns into a political lever that certain groups begin to use for their own purposes,” says the Economy Today expert.

Bloomberg warns American elites

Bloomberg did not make any discovery when reporting on a possible replacement of the Cabinet of Ministers, this is a common practice, says the chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada Vladimir Vasiliev. The figure of the prime minister, as the agency apparently believes, points to a possible next president. However, according to Vladimir Vasiliev, none of the candidates named by Bloombeg can be considered a successor.

"Discussions about replacing the current prime minister, who in the United States is perceived as a liberal-oriented economist, may indicate that Russia, according to Bloomberg, will gradually move away from the course of a liberal economy and focus more on the eastern vector, on the same BRICS - this is what seems to me to be the main thing in this publication. The agency makes it clear to American business circles so that they do not lose ties with Russia, and that they may eventually lose these ties. The West must once again rethink the sanctions pressure - that’s what Bloomberg is talking about,” said Vladimir Vasiliev, noting that “Russia is not a country that will wait for the West to turn to it, and the West itself needs to move towards it.”

As Bloomberg reported, citing several sources close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, lobbyists have recently become more active in advocating replacing Medvedev with a “more decisive manager” capable of “breathing life into the choking economy.”

The head of state has not yet commented on the possible choice in favor of one candidate or another. According to Bloomberg, Putin has been “pitting different groups in power” for 17 years.

According to the publication’s interlocutors, the president has previously contrasted security forces who are followers of economic nationalism with supporters of reducing the role of the state in the economy. These included Medvedev and former Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev, who was arrested last year.

According to Bloomberg, after winning the 2018 elections, Putin will dissolve the government due to “political tensions.” According to the law, he will have to submit a candidate for the position of prime minister within two weeks.

A high-ranking federal official told Republic that Manturov from the Ministry of Industry and Trade has been called Medvedev's likely successor for the last year and a half. According to the publication, his candidacy was previously supported by Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov.

Another interlocutor of the portal noted that Nabiullina enjoys “considerable trust” of Putin, but he prefers to see her at the head of the Central Bank.

Last spring, Bloomberg already reported that Medvedev was “more than ever” worried about his political career. According to the agency, this was due to the release of an investigative film by the Anti-Corruption Foundation, “He’s Not Your Dimon.”

The Kremlin may sacrifice the unpopular prime minister, the agency suggested

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, amid a sharp drop in his ratings and anti-corruption rallies across the country, is more concerned than ever about his future in Russian politics. The American agency Bloomberg writes about this, citing two sources close to the head of the Cabinet of Ministers.

Two other people close to the Kremlin said Medvedev would become increasingly “vulnerable” as the March 2018 presidential election approaches. Under current circumstances, the politician is unlikely to be able to take part in them, the agency notes.

Bloomberg explains that getting rid of the unpopular prime minister would be an easy way out for Putin, especially since his own rating among the population remains high.

In addition, a change in the state's second-in-command could boost turnout in elections "frustrated by the longest economic downturn in two decades."

However, there is one “but” - Medvedev’s resignation will inspire Putin’s opponents. As political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky told the publication, the president cannot fire Medvedev “without making a gift to Navalny.”

The day before, the Levada Center released opinion poll data, according to which Dmitry Medvedev’s trust rating had reached record lows, and his resignation would be supported

Experts linked the drop in the prime minister's rating, in particular, with the publication in March of this year of an investigative film by the Anti-Corruption Foundation of oppositionist Alexei Navalny. It alleged that Medvedev is associated with charitable foundations for which real estate and land plots are registered.

Press Secretary of the Prime Minister Natalya Timakova considered the Levada poll. According to her, the Prime Minister does not attach importance to such politically biased research.

Director of the Levada Center Lev Gudkov, noting that such a reaction is a sign of the authorities’ insecurity. Gudkov emphasized that the research was carried out on its own initiative and at the expense of the organization’s own funds.

In turn, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov promised that the sociologists' conclusions would be forthcoming. However, he noted that the work of government is complex, and polling data is volatile.